A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Spudboy]

The truth is that more great glove guys have come through the major leagues than great hitters. A lot of great glove guys never make it out of the minor leagues. There are several great CFers in the AL this generation -- Bradley, Kiermaier, Pillar, Trout, and maybe the best of all is Buxton (can't hit enough to stay in the majors). Probably, the only one that fans will remember is Trout, because he is also a great hitter. People are mentioning Yaz, Dewey, Clemente, Mays etc. , but few mention Paul Blair. He may be the best that I remember. My Dad's generation used to talk about Pete Reiser. No one mentions Darren Lewis. He was pretty darn good.

 

Now THERE is a great name!

[a700hitter]

now there is a great name!

lol!!!

[moonslav59]

Best Sox Winning Percentages of All Time

 

.699 2018 (season in progress- on pace for 113 wins)

.691 1912

.675 1946

.669 1915

.623 1949 (2nd place)

.619 1948 (2nd place)

.612 1942 (2nd place)

.610 1950 (3rd place)

.607 1978 (2nd place)

.605 2004 (2nd place- WS Champs)

.602 1977 (2nd place)

.599 2013 WS Champions

 

18. .593 2007 WS Champions

[moonslav59]

We're 23-5 in our last 28. We have the best winning percentage of any team in Sox history, and we've done this all with a lot of players out hurt or playing while injured:

 

Ex-MVP Dustin Pedroia out pretty much all season

Our #3/4 starter, Pomeranz, missing about half the season, so far.

Our #5 starter, ERod out for over a month (or more).

Our #6 starter, Wright, missing over 2 months and counting.

Our expected #2/3 RP'er, Carson Smith, pretty much missing the whole year.

Our expected #2/3 RP'er, Thornburg just now pitching after missing about 3 months.

Our #1 starter, Sale, on the DL, now.

Our starting 3Bman, Devers, on the DL.

Our starting catcher, Vaz, on the DL.

Our new starting 2Bman, Kinsler, on the DL.

Our back-up catcher, Swihart, on the DL.

Our utility guy, Marco Hernandez, out all year.

Our RP'er depth hurt by Austin Maddox missing all year and others out here and there.

MVP candidate, Betts, was on the DL for a stint.

Moreland, Velazquez & Nunez (maybe Bogey now) have been playing hurt and out for a few days here and there.

 

The only guys who have stayed healthy all year are:

 

JD

Beni

JBJ

Leon

Holt

Porcello

Kimbrel

Barnes

Kelly

Hembree

Johnson

Mr. Tingles missing a little time.

 

[moonslav59]

Best Pen WAR since 2017

16.2 NYY (and falling)

11.8 BOS

10.9 HOU

9.7 LAD

9.6 MIL

[Maxbialystock]

We're 23-5 in our last 28. We have the best winning percentage of any team in Sox history, and we've done this all with a lot of players out hurt or playing while injured:

 

Ex-MVP Dustin Pedroia out pretty much all season

Our #3/4 starter, Pomeranz, missing about half the season, so far.

Our #5 starter, ERod out for over a month (or more).

Our #6 starter, Wright, missing over 2 months and counting.

Our expected #2/3 RP'er, Carson Smith, pretty much missing the whole year.

Our expected #2/3 RP'er, Thornburg just now pitching after missing about 3 months.

Our #1 starter, Sale, on the DL, now.

Our starting 3Bman, Devers, on the DL.

Our starting catcher, Vaz, on the DL.

Our new starting 2Bman, Kinsler, on the DL.

Our back-up catcher, Swihart, on the DL.

Our utility guy, Marco Hernandez, out all year.

Our RP'er depth hurt by Austin Maddox missing all year and others out here and there.

MVP candidate, Betts, was on the DL for a stint.

Moreland, Velazquez & Nunez (maybe Bogey now) have been playing hurt and out for a few days here and there.

 

The only guys who have stayed healthy all year are:

 

JD

Beni

JBJ

Leon

Holt

Porcello

Kimbrel

Barnes

Kelly

Hembree

Johnson

Mr. Tingles missing a little time.

 

 

Nicely done, moonslav. I never thought of Pom as our #3. Ahead of him I would put: Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Wright, Velazquez, and Johnson. What do you want to bet that's how DD sees him now and maybe Cora?

 

23-5 in our last 28? Zowie.

[oldtimer]

The truth is that more great glove guys have come through the major leagues than great hitters. A lot of great glove guys never make it out of the minor leagues. There are several great CFers in the AL this generation -- Bradley, Kiermaier, Pillar, Trout, and maybe the best of all is Buxton (can't hit enough to stay in the majors). Probably, the only one that fans will remember is Trout, because he is also a great hitter. People are mentioning Yaz, Dewey, Clemente, Mays etc. , but few mention Paul Blair. He may be the best that I remember. My Dad's generation used to talk about Pete Reiser. No one mentions Darren Lewis. He was pretty darn good.

 

I'm [rpbably from your dad's generation and I remember Dom Dimaggio as being an excellent CF for the Sox. Not the big hitter but very viable.

[moonslav59]

Nicely done, moonslav. I never thought of Pom as our #3. Ahead of him I would put: Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Wright, Velazquez, and Johnson. What do you want to bet that's how DD sees him now and maybe Cora?

 

23-5 in our last 28? Zowie.

 

I feel Pom was our 3 or 4 starter after last season ended. It was his injury that dropped him to 4/5 or 5/6.

 

Of course, Pom is the 5, 6 or even 7th starter when everyone comes back.

 

It was his injury that dropped him down.

 

Just as Cora and DD no longer view Pedey as our #1 2Bman.

[dannycater]

DLew (who is now DFat as in huge if you saw the Alumni game) was a great outfielder, but not the arm of JBJR. Lewis got great jumps on balls. Paul Blair was fantastic and so was Garry Maddox and so was to an extent Ellis Valentine, who had one of the great arms ever. Evans read balls very well and was outstanding in range/arm. However, game in and game out, JBJR is making plays that are simply beyond ESPN highlight reel. He has robbed so many extra base hits, they need to make up a category for that in those "metrics." His speed and knowledge of his craft put him like JD Martinez has been in terms of how he has turned hitting for power into a science (no not Ted Williams science...a real f***ing science!...I always laugh because Teddy Ballgame was Teddy Ballgame, he couldn't transfer his ability to hit for average/power to others. I liked his book but the reality is his vision/strength was off the charts fantastic). Back to JBJR. I have a pretty good recollection of watching many great outfielders, this isn't about today's guys v. yesterday's guys. This is absolute ridiculously greatness as a defender. Ellsbury used to make these great diving catches and I used to think wow he had some range, and then I watch JBJR and think, Ellsbury had no idea how to really field his position. JBJR is the master of anticipation and break. His instincts are just better than everyone.

[notin]

However, game in and game out, JBJR is making plays that are simply beyond ESPN highlight reel. He has robbed so many extra base hits, they need to make up a category for that in those "metrics."

 

While not perfect, the metrics actually do account for those plays. UZR takes that into account...

[dannycater]

Gold Glove awardless...sad.

[dannycater]

Ian Kinsler lasted all of a few games before putting Sox back into a Nunez/Holt deal, which frankly never bothered me overall.However, Kinsler's great plays in that one inning shows you how much he truly replaces Pedroia as a defender. Holt I think has played very well when he's been at 2b. Kinsler i hope won't be a day to day guy, nagging injuries.

[moonslav59]

Ian Kinsler lasted all of a few games before putting Sox back into a Nunez/Holt deal, which frankly never bothered me overall.However, Kinsler's great plays in that one inning shows you how much he truly replaces Pedroia as a defender. Holt I think has played very well when he's been at 2b. Kinsler i hope won't be a day to day guy, nagging injuries.

 

I'm hopeful the return of Devers and Kinsler comes sooner rather than later. Holt and Nunez are fine as utility men, but we'll be even better with them on the bench.

 

The return of ERod and maybe Wright should help as well. I'm also liking what I see from Thornburg. He might be the surprise piece in our playoff run.

[jd98]

Did nobody mention Andruw Jones as the best defensive CF ever? FWIW, fangraphs Defensive Runs Above Average for a career, he's first by a mile for CFs. He's at 278.8, which is 8th for any position. Next highest ranked CF is Willie Mays at 170.1 and 58th overall, and Paul Blair is 3rd with 160.3. That's cumulative over a career, so not the best stat to use, but it was easy to look up. Maybe the same stat per inning with minimum inning requirement would be decent. I might do that tomorrow out of curiosity. Anyway, having watched a lot of Braves games in those days, that's who immediately came to my mind.

 

As for best Sox defensive CF, I have no idea. FWIW again, the same stat has Jim Piersall comfortably in 1st. JBJ currently 9th, but he'll probably be 2nd with a few more years with the Sox, but can't see him catching Piersall.

 

Edit: My per inning idea is bad. It's gonna punish people who played longer and had their defense fall off. Maybe best 8 seasons or something, but that's too much work to figure out. So yeah, still Andruw Jones overall. For Sox? Anybody remember Piersall?

Edited August 7, 2018 by jd98

[moonslav59]

With the day off, let's take a look at some of the "what ifs" this past winter FA market shows us:

 

(Contract) OPS (PAs in 2018)

 

1B

Hosmer ($144M/8) .711 (472) My prediction as the worst FA signing in '18.

Santana ($60M/3) .764 (478)

Y Alonso ($16M/2) .768 (397)

Moreland ($13M/2) .814 (327)

Lo Mo ($6.5M/1) .676 (343)

M Adams ($4M/1) .900 (257)

L Duda ($3.5M/1) .708 (277)

 

Infield

Z Cozart ($38M/3) .658 (253)

T Frazier ($17M/2) .660 (274)

Moustakas ($6.5M/1) .767 (452)

E Nunez ($8M/2) ,665 (379)

Kendrick ($7M/2) .805 (160)

Walker ($4M/1) .609 (255)

 

OF

JMart ($110M/5) 1.033 (459)

L Cain ($80M/5) .806 (416)

Bruce ($39M/3) .613 (236)

CGonz ($8M/1) .846 (344)

Dyson ($7.5M/2) .539 (237)

Grandy ($5M/1) .751 (310)

 

ERA- (IP)

SP

Darvish ($126M/6) 121(40)

Arrieta ($75M/3) 81 (119)

A Cobb ($57M/4) 136 (110)

Chatwood ($38M/3) 121 (94)

L Lynn ($12M/1) 118 (102)

Cashner ($16M/2) 118 (114)

G Cole (Trade) 65

 

RP

WDavis ($52M/3)

McGee ($27M/3)

BShaw ($27M/3)

Morrow ($21M/2)

Hunter ($18M/2)

Nicasio ($17M/2)

A Reed ($16.5M/2)

Neshek ($16M/2)

JSmith ($15M/2)

Holland ($14M/1) Just released

 

 

[moonslav59]

Did nobody mention Andruw Jones as the best defensive CF ever? FWIW, fangraphs Defensive Runs Above Average for a career, he's first by a mile for CFs. He's at 278.8, which is 8th for any position. Next highest ranked CF is Willie Mays at 170.1 and 58th overall, and Paul Blair is 3rd with 160.3. That's cumulative over a career, so not the best stat to use, but it was easy to look up. Maybe the same stat per inning with minimum inning requirement would be decent. I might do that tomorrow out of curiosity. Anyway, having watched a lot of Braves games in those days, that's who immediately came to my mind.

 

As for best Sox defensive CF, I have no idea. FWIW again, the same stat has Jim Piersall comfortably in 1st. JBJ currently 9th, but he'll probably be 2nd with a few more years with the Sox, but can't see him catching Piersall.

 

UZR/150 does not go back very far, but here are the OF leaders:

 

17.4 Jones

13.8 Heywood

13.4 Betts

 

12. JBJ 8.7

20. JD Drew 6.5

 

DRS

142 Heywood

131 Gardner

123 Gordon

100 Suzuki

88 Betts

 

10, Jones 66

17. JBJ 46

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=1912&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Update:

 

The SOX, who lead the league in just about everything, do not lead in injuries, which I thought they did. Nope, the leader in injuries is the Astros.

[moonslav59]

Last 28 days OPS Against

(in order or most PAs against)

 

.601 Price (108PAs)

.723 Porcello (92)

.709 Johnson (87)

.431 C Sale (72)

.344 Eovaldi (50)

.517 Brasier (46)

.878 Pomeranz (46)

.660 Velazquez (44)

.560 Barnes (42)

.681 Kimbrel (42)

.748 Hembree (38)

.716 J Kelly (37)

.536 Thornburg (32)

 

 

 

[jd98]

UZR/150 does not go back very far, but here are the OF leaders:

 

17.4 Jones

13.8 Heywood

13.4 Betts

 

12. JBJ 8.7

20. JD Drew 6.5

 

DRS

142 Heywood

131 Gardner

123 Gordon

100 Suzuki

88 Betts

 

10, Jones 66

17. JBJ 46

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=1912&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d

To be exact, UZR/150 and DRS start with 2002. That would miss Jones's first 6 seasons (about 5 seasons worth of playing time).

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Last 28 days OPS Against

(in order or most PAs against)

 

.601 Price (108PAs)

.723 Porcello (92)

.709 Johnson (87)

.431 C Sale (72)

.344 Eovaldi (50)

.517 Brasier (46)

.878 Pomeranz (46)

.660 Velazquez (44)

.560 Barnes (42)

.681 Kimbrel (42)

.748 Hembree (38)

.716 J Kelly (37)

.536 Thornburg (32)

 

 

 

 

POM stands out like a sore arm.

[moonslav59]

To be exact, UZR/150 and DRS start with 2002. That would miss Jones's first 6 seasons (about 5 seasons worth of playing time).

 

Yes, but many other stats are cumulative and reward longevity as much as actual skills.

[jd98]

Yes, but many other stats are cumulative and reward longevity as much as actual skills.

 

Yeah, I wasn't making any kind of point, just noting specifically what would be missing from Jones's stats that you quoted.

[moonslav59]

Sox batting OPS over the last 28 days....

 

1.011 Pearce

.994 Betts

.973 JDM

.955 Kinsler (11 PAs)

.908 Swihart

.

.840 Beni

.814 JBJ

.792 Bogey

 

.733 Devers

.700 Nunez

 

.553 Moreland

.446 Holt

.416 Leon

[moonslav59]

Yeah, I wasn't making any kind of point, just noting specifically what would be missing from Jones's stats that you quoted.

 

Okay, I wasn't sure what the actual date was, but I tried to mention there was a somewhat recent cutoff.

 

Jones is clearly one of the all time best.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

To be exact, UZR/150 and DRS start with 2002. That would miss Jones's first 6 seasons (about 5 seasons worth of playing time).

 

So UZR has JBJ ranked 12th. IOW, whatever the hell UZR is wants me to believe that there's 11 better defensive OF's in baseball. I think I'll just trust my lying eyes.

Question; are these rankings strictly based on defense?

Edited August 7, 2018 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[moonslav59]

So UZR has JBJ ranked 12th. IOW, whatever the hell UZR is wants me to believe that there's 11 better defensive OF's in baseball. I think I'll just trust my lying eyes.

Question; are these rankings strictly based on defense?

 

UZR/150 is just defense. It is based on observations by trained people who look at where balls are hit and how likely they are to be caught.

 

Being top 12 since 2012 is no slight.

[moonslav59]

Sox DL List for 2018:

 

Current

131+ M Hernandez

131+ A Maddox

124+ D Pedroia

84+ C Smith

42+ Wright

34+ ERod

30+ Vazquez

19+ Devers

7+ Sale

4+ Swihart

3+ Kinsler

 

Off DL now/ Time missed

 

98 Thormburg

73 Pomeranz

19 Bogey

12 Holt

11 Betts

11 Poyner

8 Johnson

 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Sox batting OPS over the last 28 days....

 

1.011 Pearce

.994 Betts

.973 JDM

.955 Kinsler (11 PAs)

.908 Swihart

.

.840 Beni

.814 JBJ

.792 Bogey

 

.733 Devers

.700 Nunez

 

.553 Moreland

.446 Holt

.416 Leon

 

JBJ's .814 really stands out. MOON, you're definitely in the numbers racket.

[moonslav59]

JBJ's .814 really stands out. MOON, you're definitely in the numbers racket.

 

Bored with no game.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Bored with no game.

 

After that 4 game series, I don't mind the day off. Unfortunately, as expected, the lowly White Sox are losing to the F'ing Yankems.