2018 ESPN Prospects Stuff (Sox Related)

[Bellhorn04]

I like Porcello and have done so since he plunked and threw to the ground Youk.

 

Never the less he is a mid-rotation innings eater that had one very good year.

 

At least the Sox got something for loosing Lester.

 

Yes, they basically traded Lester for Porcello. I'm still not a fan of it.

[moonslav59]

Way overstated. Porcello has NOT been a better value than Scherzer or Lester so far in terms of dollars per fWAR.

 

He's certainly, given us more value per dollar than Price, so far.

 

I said I wanted Scherzer and we could have had both.

 

The point was, once we low-balled Lester, he wasn't signing here. We got Porcello for 2 months of Lester, and therein was the "value" of the deal.

 

The part of that deal that hurt the most was the money "saved" by not signing Lester (or Scherzer) was wasted on HRam and Pablo.

 

The actual trades, given the context, were not bad.

[Bellhorn04]

He's certainly, given us more value per dollar than Price, so far.

 

I said I wanted Scherzer and we could have had both.

 

The point was, once we low-balled Lester, he wasn't signing here.

 

The facts indicate that Lester, ever the stand-up guy, was still open to re-signing with the Sox. If you recall it ended up with us, the Cubs and the Giants bidding for him. Then Lester informed the Giants they were out of it.

 

Theo outbid us by $20 million. He 'overpaid', as we're all so fond of saying.

[Spudboy]

The facts indicate that Lester, ever the stand-up guy, was still open to re-signing with the Sox. If you recall it ended up with us, the Cubs and the Giants bidding for him. Then Lester informed the Giants they were out of it.

 

Theo outbid us by $20 million. He 'overpaid', as we're all so fond of saying.

 

Yup. And he did not put his house in Waban ( Newton ) on the market until after the Cubs deal was made.

 

He could have been back if a solid offer had been made in time.

[moonslav59]

The facts indicate that Lester, ever the stand-up guy, was still open to re-signing with the Sox. If you recall it ended up with us, the Cubs and the Giants bidding for him. Then Lester informed the Giants they were out of it.

 

Theo outbid us by $20 million. He 'overpaid', as we're all so fond of saying.

 

I'd have rather outbid the Cubs for Lester than sign HRam and/or Pablo and said as much back then.

 

We could have had Lester and Porcello or Scherzer & Porcello.

 

It wasn't really the trade that was bad, it was the initial low ball offer and how we squandered the saved money that made the whole plan go sour, plus the fact that HRam & Porcello basically sucked year one and Pablo sucked all the time.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd have rather outbid the Cubs for Lester than sign HRam and/or Pablo and said as much back then.

 

We could have had Lester and Porcello or Scherzer & Porcello.

 

It wasn't really the trade that was bad, it was the initial low ball offer and how we squandered the saved money that made the whole plan go sour, plus the fact that HRam & Porcello basically sucked year one and Pablo sucked all the time.

 

Porcello also pretty much sucked in 2017. The guy just seems to throw too many pitches in the fat part of the plate.

[Kimmi]

Part of the problem with Ben being able to sign either Lester or Scherzer was that Henry was strongly opposed to giving long term contracts to pitchers in their 30s, and rightly so. He then did an about face when and allowed Dombrowski to sign Price to that mega deal.

 

Porcello's contract is the exact type of contract that teams should be looking for. I would do that deal all over again any day of the week.

[jacksonianmarch]

Knowing what you know now, you wouldn’t. He had one incredible campaign and two bad ones.

 

Ben couldn’t assemble pitching. He just couldn’t. He inherited Lester and Lackey, dealt them away and then assembled a mishmash of #4’s and 5’s and had Farrell tout that he had 5 aces. He couldn’t develop pitching. He couldn’t draft pitching. He couldn’t sign pitching. He couldn’t deal for pitching. He was pitching delayed

[moonslav59]

Knowing what you know now, you wouldn’t. He had one incredible campaign and two bad ones.

 

Remember, 2015 was at a cost of $12.5M. That's pretty close to what a 1.6 WAR is worth, so I'm not sure you can count that year as a "bad one".

 

He's pitched 2 out of his 4 year big contract. One great (5.6 WAR) and one mediocre (2.0 WAR), which wasn't totally disastrous.

 

While I don't agree with the value page on fangraphs, they have Porcello's value as being just over $70M over his 3 years in Boston. His actual contract cost has been about $54M over that time.

 

David price has cost us $62M, so far, and he has given us a $47.6M in value. Kimbrel has given us $35M value at about a $26M cost (not counting the value of the prospects given). Pom has been great. He's given us about $28M in value at about $5M cost (not counting the value of Espinoza).

 

 

[Kimmi]

Knowing what you know now, you wouldn’t. He had one incredible campaign and two bad ones.

 

Ben couldn’t assemble pitching. He just couldn’t. He inherited Lester and Lackey, dealt them away and then assembled a mishmash of #4’s and 5’s and had Farrell tout that he had 5 aces. He couldn’t develop pitching. He couldn’t draft pitching. He couldn’t sign pitching. He couldn’t deal for pitching. He was pitching delayed

 

There are still 2 years left on Porcello's contract, so it's too early to say whether I would still do that deal with the luxury of hindsight. It hasn't been as bad as you make it sound.

 

Ben was not around long enough to know exactly what he could do as far as signing or dealing for pitching.

[sk7326]

But they mostly all become free agents within a year of each other.

 

We don't have the cost controlled quality to replace them, and we can't keep them all.

 

And we will keep some and figure out the rest. We might even trade one of them! This ain't college basketball. If the Sox hit a cliff it will be their fault.

[sk7326]

And today - the Red Sox deep dive http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/22253672/keith-law-complete-guide-al-east-prospects-yankees-loaded-red-sox-re-stocking

 

They've been near the top for years, but the Red Sox's system is the shallowest it has been since I started working on these lists, thanks to both promotions and big trades. They've been productive for about a decade, helping stock the roster that won the AL East last year. Their 2017 draft class has the potential to help kick-start the next wave of prospects here.

 

ORG TOP 10

 

1. Jason Groome, LHP (#30)

2. Michael Chavis, 3B (#76)

3. Tanner Houck, RHP (Just missed)

4. Bryan Mata, RHP

5. Sam Travis, 1B

6. Alex Scherff, RHP

7. Jake Thompson, RHP

8. Cole Brannen, OF

9. Travis Lakins, RHP

10. Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP

 

Non Top-100 Prospects

 

Bryan Mata is extremely polished for someone so young, as he won't turn 19 until May but has already had a successful season in low-A, striking out nearly a man an inning with a low walk rate for Greenville last year. He's up to 94, sitting 90-92, with an average changeup that could be plus and a fringe curveball that might get to average. There's some projection here, as he has broad shoulders and looks like he can fill out, but the floor looks good given his feel for pitching and present control. Sam Travis should hit for average, but the raw power he sometimes shows in BP doesn't translate to games, in which his swing gets flatter and produces line drives but not home-run power. He's ready to be someone's starter at first, but the Red Sox want thump at that position right now, and Travis isn't going to provide that unless he alters his launch angle.

 

Boston took Alex Scherff, a potential late first-rounder who fell on signability concerns, in the fifth round last year after his price dropped. He's been up to 99 and commands the fastball well for something that hard, showing an above-average changeup but no average breaking ball yet. He's 6-foot-3, 205 pounds and athletic, and he has huge upside, though there's reliever risk between the delivery and questions about a third pitch.

 

Jake Thompson was their fourth-round pick last year and was a sinker/slider guy at Oregon State, but he came to the Red Sox with a plus changeup and a curveball that the Beavers discouraged him from throwing. He'll get up to 96 and sit 93-94, with the ability to get ground balls with the sinker and miss bats with his off-speed stuff. Cole Brannen, their second-round pick, finished eighth in the Gulf Coast League this summer with 30 walks; he had a hand injury in the spring that hampered his power and probably helped the Red Sox get him at pick 63. He's a 70 runner who can handle center field, and the hope is that he'll show more power once his hand is fully recovered after an offseason of rest.

 

Travis Lakins will show three above-average to plus secondary pitches and can touch 94 with his four-seamer, but the guy cannot stay healthy; the same elbow injury that ended his 2016 ended his 2017, and his awful Double-A stat line shows how he tried to pitch through it. He could be a No. 2 starter with this stuff, but he has thrown 159 innings over two years, and who knows what the future of his elbow will be.

 

Darwinzon Hernandez can sit 93-94 and touch 97 with a solid-average changeup in the mid-80s, but he doesn't throw consistent strikes with any pitch, and his velocity can fluctuate early in starts. He also doesn't have a real present breaking ball, just overpowering left-handed hitters with velocity. He'll pitch at 21 this year, with no physical projection but a lot of growth potential in his command and the hope that he can find a third pitch.

 

Right-hander Mike Shawaryn (11) had a solid full-season debut, dominating younger players in low-A, running into some command trouble in high-A. He'll show a 55 fastball and slider, but his arm action seems very likely to push him to the bullpen. Nick Duron's (12) first year back from Tommy John surgery was a success overall, with his fastball back at 92-97 and a short slider up to 87 and mid-80s changeup that both flashed above average or better. He didn't miss many bats in short season last year, in large part because he has 45 or less life on the fastball, so learning to mix his pitches and avoid the heart of the zone with the fastball will be key. His range of outcomes ranges from midrotation starter due to his stuff to middle reliever if he can't strike enough guys out. Tyler Esplin (13), Boston's seventh-round pick in 2017, opened some eyes in the GCL with his raw power and ability to drive the ball the other way. He has a right fielder's arm but might end up at first base given his size; the swing works and the ball comes off well enough that he might still profile even without positional value. Josh Ockimey (14) is a below-average defender at first who has raw power and will take his walks, but I don't think he recognizes pitch types well, in part because he has such a wide base and no stride that he buys himself no extra time to pick up spin or see a changeup.

 

Lefty reliever Bobby Poyner (15) continues to miss bats, posting a 35 percent K rate after a midyear promotion to Double-A, thanks to a very high spin rate on his fastball. He's not a specialist, with a changeup his best off-speed pitch and reverse platoon splits the past two years, and at just 89-90, he will probably have to keep proving it as he moves up ... but the whiff rates and the fact that he never walks guys (he has walked four left-handed batters in two years) makes me think he'll be a solid middle reliever.

 

Boston gave Venezuelan infielder Danny Diaz (16) $1.6 million last summer on the promise of his bat; he has a solid approach and plus raw power, with more than enough arm to handle an eventual move to third base. Right-hander Joan Martinez (17) has a very loose arm and works 93-98 with a slider and a new splitter for left-handed batters. His arm action is long, and he's a pure reliever but interesting with the three-pitch mix and solid control.

 

2018 impact: Probably nobody; Sam Travis could help the club, but it seems like they're going in a different direction.

 

The fallen: Two 2016 draft picks had mostly lost seasons last year due to injuries, as shortstop C.J. Chatham hurt his hamstring twice and played in only seven games, while Bobby Dalbec re-aggravated an old hamate bone injury, missing close to two months and showing none of his huge raw power until the last month of the season. Dalbec did hit .273/.380/.529 from Aug. 1, with seven homers, though he still punched out in 37 percent of his plate appearances and was old for low-A. Trey Ball, the seventh overall pick in the 2013 draft, was not selected in the Rule 5 draft after the Red Sox chose not to put him on their 40-man roster.

 

Sleeper: Jake Thompson seems like a completely different prospect than he was before the Red Sox drafted him, with a new pitch mix that includes a better out pitch than he had in the spring.

 

Final Red Sox note: I want to at least mention Daniel Flores, a Venezuelan catcher whom the Red Sox signed in July 2017 for more than $3 million but who died of a rare, aggressive form of testicular cancer just four months later. These lists celebrate the promise of hundreds of young men whose whole lives appear to be ahead of them, and when someone merely has a bad season, we often turn our attention to the next batch of players in the pipeline, as if the previous prospects never existed. I don't want to see Flores, who was just 17 when he died and never played a professional game, be forgotten.

[mvp 78]

I think Scherff, Mata and Houck could all end up in the top 100 next year if they track in the right direction.

[moonslav59]

I think Scherff, Mata and Houck could all end up in the top 100 next year if they track in the right direction.

 

I agree, but at the same time, Chavis or Groome could do poorly and drop out of the top 100.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Scherff, Mata and Houck could all end up in the top 100 next year if they track in the right direction.

 

You could say that about practically any prospect. Mata has the highest upside of the group when you consider youth and size as well. He's probably the most likely to be a top 100

[sk7326]

I agree, but at the same time, Chavis or Groome could do poorly and drop out of the top 100.

 

Some guys can do well, others can do badly - stop the presses

 

The interesting piece from the org writeup was that it looks like the org has brought in a lot of ceiling. There is a lot less probability than in prior years - but the talent is there. Now the hope is some of the kids figure out things, third pitches, turning over lineups and such (for pitchers).

 

This is why the falling of the minor league team has not worried me yet - the bottom of the org rankings have some bad systems (Giants) - but also systems who have been insanely productive in recent years (Cubs, Royals, Sox) and who need to reload. The question is whether the Red Sox are doing so - and certainly the early returns on the 2017 draft and international signings are positive, or at least intriguing.

[moonslav59]

You could say that about practically any prospect. Mata has the highest upside of the group when you consider youth and size as well. He's probably the most likely to be a top 100

 

Yes, every team has 2-3 guys with serious upside but rawness (or youth) that keeps them from the top 100 at this time.

[moonslav59]

Some guys can do well, others can do badly - stop the presses

 

The interesting piece from the org writeup was that it looks like the org has brought in a lot of ceiling. There is a lot less probability than in prior years - but the talent is there. Now the hope is some of the kids figure out things, third pitches, turning over lineups and such (for pitchers).

 

This is why the falling of the minor league team has not worried me yet - the bottom of the org rankings have some bad systems (Giants) - but also systems who have been insanely productive in recent years (Cubs, Royals, Sox) and who need to reload. The question is whether the Red Sox are doing so - and certainly the early returns on the 2017 draft and international signings are positive, or at least intriguing.

 

The 3 teams you mentioned built up their farms during periods of having high draft picks within a system designed to help teams that have money draft "unsignable" players and spend heavily on international free agents. Losing Flores hurt.

 

Our farm does have promise, but it is light years behind the farm of 2013-2015.

[jacksonianmarch]

Moon, that is the problem. Consider this. The sox did a lot of damage on the INTL market with Moncada, Margot, Devers, and Espinosa. Mata falls in line there, but Flores was a big catch in that ilk and now he is gone sadly. Where is the rest of the INTL development? There is a real dearth of INTL talent that really should be there. The sox had a nice system going there and now it seems to have dried up.

 

Here is how you look at the farm

DSL-SS are guys who are fresh to being a pro, but they show promise

A-A+ are guys who are now starting to show production with their promise

AA-AAA are starting to show polish on top of their production and promise.

 

The sox did deal off a lot of guys in the AA-AAA range and with their positive finishes in the standings, have brought in less draft level talent. They did bring in some interesting pieces, but Hunter Greene isn't walking through that door if you know what I mean. Your upper levels are expectedly depleted. What you don't see is the depth of prospects in the A-A+ level that had been there previously. You've got some guys with ceiling in the DSL-SS range (Houck, Brannen, Scherff, etc) but you are really missing the cadre of prospects in the middle there. That tells me that not only has DD skimmed the top of the prospect levels for trades, but the 2015-2016 (sans Beni mind you) haven't brought you the next wave like it should have.

[sk7326]

The 3 teams you mentioned built up their farms during periods of having high draft picks within a system designed to help teams that have money draft "unsignable" players and spend heavily on international free agents. Losing Flores hurt.

 

Our farm does have promise, but it is light years behind the farm of 2013-2015.

 

True - but the Sox still benefitted from unsignability in 2017 ... whom the rules hurt more (sadly - and kind of funny given the draft's alleged purpose) are the smaller market teams, who actually could throw a lot of money at this while other teams focused on big league talent.

 

The farm IS light years behind 2013-2015. That was inevitable. The only playoff team in the ESPN Top 10 for org rankings is #9. The Red Sox graduated a lot of the 2013-2015 group and traded the blocked ones for big league stuff ... which is how you'd want to do it, no? The 2017 draft was productive, now we'll see what 2018 does - and if any of these kids make leaps. It's exciting.

[sk7326]

Moon, that is the problem. Consider this. The sox did a lot of damage on the INTL market with Moncada, Margot, Devers, and Espinosa. Mata falls in line there, but Flores was a big catch in that ilk and now he is gone sadly. Where is the rest of the INTL development? There is a real dearth of INTL talent that really should be there. The sox had a nice system going there and now it seems to have dried up.

 

Here is how you look at the farm

DSL-SS are guys who are fresh to being a pro, but they show promise

A-A+ are guys who are now starting to show production with their promise

AA-AAA are starting to show polish on top of their production and promise.

 

The sox did deal off a lot of guys in the AA-AAA range and with their positive finishes in the standings, have brought in less draft level talent. They did bring in some interesting pieces, but Hunter Greene isn't walking through that door if you know what I mean. Your upper levels are expectedly depleted. What you don't see is the depth of prospects in the A-A+ level that had been there previously. You've got some guys with ceiling in the DSL-SS range (Houck, Brannen, Scherff, etc) but you are really missing the cadre of prospects in the middle there. That tells me that not only has DD skimmed the top of the prospect levels for trades, but the 2015-2016 (sans Beni mind you) haven't brought you the next wave like it should have.

 

It's ultimately age and production (with age thresholds for pitchers and catchers being older). And even that is tempered some - since winning only actually matters at the big league level. AAA is definitely is production - since AAA is essentially a big league taxi squad nowadays.

 

Heck, if you're a team with a AAA PCL affiliate, often you are better off just skipping pitchers past AAA altogether.

[jacksonianmarch]

Exactly, nothing will kill a pitching prospect's confidence like pitching in Colorado Springs. My comment was mostly based on the lack of prospects in the middle. Guys in A ball typically were drafted the year or two prior or signed in the INTL ranks 2-3 years prior. The depth just isn't there. In years prior, the sox had a stable of prospects at those ranks. This is more a knock on Ben for 2015 and DD for 2016

[mvp 78]

You could say that about practically any prospect. Mata has the highest upside of the group when you consider youth and size as well. He's probably the most likely to be a top 100

 

I know this. I was just trying to add some light to the doom and gloomers who think the farm is a trainwreck.

[mvp 78]

Moon, that is the problem. Consider this. The sox did a lot of damage on the INTL market with Moncada, Margot, Devers, and Espinosa. Mata falls in line there, but Flores was a big catch in that ilk and now he is gone sadly. Where is the rest of the INTL development? There is a real dearth of INTL talent that really should be there. The sox had a nice system going there and now it seems to have dried up.

 

That's what happens when Ben efffff's you over for a few years due to his contract nonsense and one of their top INTL prospects dies. They'll get their mojo back.

[jacksonianmarch]

This is an entirely new administration. The "mojo" built with Theo and Ben is gone. DD has proven he could build in the past, but he has been far more the leveler in recent years. The Tigers farm was in tatters when he was shown the door.

[mvp 78]

This is an entirely new administration. The "mojo" built with Theo and Ben is gone. DD has proven he could build in the past, but he has been far more the leveler in recent years. The Tigers farm was in tatters when he was shown the door.

 

It's the same scouts. They'll be fine.

[jacksonianmarch]

Scouts are only a part of it. The guy pulling the trigger on those deals is different. And how do you know they are the same scouts? I am not doubting you, I am just wondering how you know it is the same? Scouts move from team to team and usually from administration to administration

[sk7326]

This is an entirely new administration. The "mojo" built with Theo and Ben is gone. DD has proven he could build in the past, but he has been far more the leveler in recent years. The Tigers farm was in tatters when he was shown the door.

 

Yes, although (and this we don't know re: Henry) Ilitch wanted that - Dombrowski was doing his job. And Dombrowski's right hand man got promoted after Dombrowski left, so it's not like Ilitch wanted to destroy the infrastructure there. If Henry wants Dombrowski to keep the farm fresh with some ceiling, it will happen. I would be surprised if Henry gave him the same mandate.

 

My theory (and just my opinion here) is that Dombrowski was brought in here to help the big league club yes, but also to take all of this minor league talent amassed by the org and make sense of it. And - so far - Dombrowski has been right in terms of the kids he has backed and the others he has dealt.

 

It looks like the 2016 and 2017 drafts brought in a lot of kids who could move - there is the raw material there. But there is a lot that has to go right, a bit more than you'd prefer - but probably what you have to live with given draft positions and so forth. Really - it is about the development staff and the kiddos themselves.

[Bellhorn04]

According to Keith Law, as per post #27 on this thread:

 

"(The Red Sox) 2017 draft class was one of the best given where they picked, with three potential first-round talents coming in their first five picks."

[moonslav59]

Moon, that is the problem. Consider this. The sox did a lot of damage on the INTL market with Moncada, Margot, Devers, and Espinosa. Mata falls in line there, but Flores was a big catch in that ilk and now he is gone sadly. Where is the rest of the INTL development? There is a real dearth of INTL talent that really should be there. The sox had a nice system going there and now it seems to have dried up.

 

Here is how you look at the farm

DSL-SS are guys who are fresh to being a pro, but they show promise

A-A+ are guys who are now starting to show production with their promise

AA-AAA are starting to show polish on top of their production and promise.

 

The sox did deal off a lot of guys in the AA-AAA range and with their positive finishes in the standings, have brought in less draft level talent. They did bring in some interesting pieces, but Hunter Greene isn't walking through that door if you know what I mean. Your upper levels are expectedly depleted. What you don't see is the depth of prospects in the A-A+ level that had been there previously. You've got some guys with ceiling in the DSL-SS range (Houck, Brannen, Scherff, etc) but you are really missing the cadre of prospects in the middle there. That tells me that not only has DD skimmed the top of the prospect levels for trades, but the 2015-2016 (sans Beni mind you) haven't brought you the next wave like it should have.

 

The spending limits on international free agents could be the biggest blow to the chances of the Sox rebuilding the farm. The slot money for draft picks hurts us, too, but not as badly.

 

Moncada, Bogey, Devers, Margot and Espinoza were all Int'l signings that are now a huge part of our core:

 

Sale

Kimbrel

Pom

Bogey

Devers