The Depth Argument

[jacksonianmarch]

I like Benintendi a lot. I like Archer a lot. The control in terms of years is similar, although Beni is 23 and Archer 29 with lots of IP in his arm. Archer can be an ace when he isn’t giving up more than a homer per 9IP. We don’t know what Beni can be. I think Beni has perennial all star potential. His BABIP was .301, so you shouldn’t expect a rise in BA there, but his K rate was 7% higher than it was in the minors. If that corrects and he continues a BABIP of .300, that jumps his average up to .292. I also think he’s the kind of hitter that could run his BABIPs into the .320s and be fine as he has good speed and has a knack for barreling the ball. Also, as he ages, his power should come a bit more. While that may mean more HRs, it also should mean more doubles. I see Beni’s ceiling as a .300/.370/.500 type hitter with 25 steals and 25+HR. I also think his defensive metrics will play better in LF as he will have a full year under his belt with the wall. I’d be reticent to deal him. I’d almost be more willing to deal Devers as I think his stock is limited by the likelihood that he ends up at 1b

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe we disagree on what an "ace" is, but to me, if you are top 30, you're close to an ace at worst. If you are top 15, there is little argument.

 

Archer's WAR rank in previous seasons:

 

11th in 2017 (4.6)

34th in 2016 (3.2)

10th in 2015 (5.2)

31st in 2014 (3.2)

 

2014-2017: 12th (16.2)

 

2015-2017: 8th (13.0)

(Better than Price, Verlander, Lester, Bumgarner, Keuchel & Cueto-- all considered "aces".)

 

The last 3 years, Archer has the 8th best xFIP at 77. He placed 29th in WHIP at 1.21. He placed 19th in K/BB at 3.80.

 

I'd say he's an ace.

 

His .325 BAbip this year is a major reason his numbers slipped.

 

,

 

If you use bWAR, on the other hand, Archer's WAR numbers are not nearly as impressive. And then the metrics themselves come into question.

[Bellhorn04]

Also completely at the hands of Red Sox hitters, who have put together one of the best offenses in the AL for most of his career. Also the one team he would never face again...

 

Good offenses, yes, but that doesn't really explain an .842 OPS against an 'ace'.

 

Some pitchers have trouble in some parks.

Edited December 29, 2017 by Bellhorn04

[moonslav59]

Good offenses, yes, but that doesn't really explain an .842 OPS against an 'ace'.

 

Some pitchers have trouble in some parks.

 

Some sample sizes are too small to judge anything from.

 

He's pitched 7 times in Fenway:

 

once in 2013 .750 OPS

once in 2014 .659 OPS

once in 2015 .599 OPS

twice in 2016 .966 OPS

- game 1: 4.1 IP 6 ER

- game 2: 6.0 IP 5 ER

twice in 2017 .924 OPS

- game 1: 5.2 IP 1 ER

- game 2: 3.0 IP 6 ER

 

Yes, 3 bad games out of 7 looks bad, but I think harshly judging a player based on 3 games is not really all that fair.

[Kimmi]

If you use bWAR, on the other hand, Archer's WAR numbers are not nearly as impressive. And then the metrics themselves come into question.

 

No, the metrics do not come into question. You (and I don't mean you personally) just have to understand how the various WARs are calculated.

 

This also pertains to the defensive metrics that are being poo-poo-ed in another thread.

[Kimmi]

Chris Archer is a good pitcher. He is not a great one. We have seen how the Sox have hammered him. You do not trade a young , every day player with the upside of Benintendi for Chris Archer. No way. I think our boredom and anxiety so far this hot stove season is causing some irrational thinking. We surely would like to have J.D. Martinez , a top starting pitcher and , possibly , Nunez. But we should not make a dumb move like giving up Benintendi. Forget it.

 

I am one who thinks we need a top starting pitcher more than we need a big bat, but no way would I trade Beni for Archer based on value.

 

Also, for some reason, I get the impression that Archer is not a player who would fare well in a city like Boston.

[Bellhorn04]

No, the metrics do not come into question. You (and I don't mean you personally) just have to understand how the various WARs are calculated.

 

That may be so. But the WAR differences for some pitchers, like Archer, are so large that it's almost a joke. If you use Archer's fWAR for the last 2 seasons he looks like an ace. If you use bWAR he looks like a #4 pitcher.

 

This can create a lot of confusion for a fan who has enough interest in WAR to look at it, but not enough interest to study it.

[notin]

That may be so. But the WAR differences for some pitchers, like Archer, are so large that it's almost a joke. If you use Archer's fWAR for the last 2 seasons he looks like an ace. If you use bWAR he looks like a #4 pitcher.

 

This can create a lot of confusion for a fan who has enough interest in WAR to look at it, but not enough interest to study it.

 

FanGraphs uses Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) as the baseline. It does count infield popups as strikeouts, as they are practically automatic outs.

 

Baseball-Reference uses a pitcher’s runs allowed and then adjusts that value based on the overall quality of their defense that year.

 

 

So a pitcher can do worse in bWAR than fWAR on a team that plays poor defense, especially a pitcher with excellent K% and K/BB numbers. but with an elevated HR rate (which leads to more runs allowed). So yes ARcher could be a lot worse in bWAR than fWAR.

 

I prefer fWAR as it is based on three outcomes the pitcher can control

Edited December 30, 2017 by notin

[OH FOY]

I know Tampa lead the Majors in Foul Outs for Pitchers, even over Oakland. Fenway was last almost every year. Don't like Pitchers who pitch in a Pitchers Park. Then come to a band box like Fenway.

18 HRS in 95 innings in Camden Yard, bet the Orioles aren't beating the door down for him.

My bad, only 10 HRS, in 36 innings, in Camden Yards, even worse.

Always like looking at Minor Leagues for Players, Archer so-so in the Minors too. 3.77 ERA in parts of 8 seasons in the Minors.

Didn't show much domination there also.

Edited December 30, 2017 by OH FOY!

[notin]

I am one who thinks we need a top starting pitcher more than we need a big bat, but no way would I trade Beni for Archer based on value.

 

Also, for some reason, I get the impression that Archer is not a player who would fare well in a city like Boston.

 

It's a deal I would consider, but we all know Dombrowski won't. He wouldn't deal Benintendi for Sale, so he certainly won't trade him for Archer.

 

And the Rays are extremely unlikely to take Bradley or Bogaerts for Archer. So extra pitching needs to come from somewhere else. ...

[Kimmi]

That may be so. But the WAR differences for some pitchers, like Archer, are so large that it's almost a joke. If you use Archer's fWAR for the last 2 seasons he looks like an ace. If you use bWAR he looks like a #4 pitcher.

 

This can create a lot of confusion for a fan who has enough interest in WAR to look at it, but not enough interest to study it.

 

There are going to be cases where a player's WAR varies greatly from one site to another, but again, having an understanding of why that happens helps to make sense of it. The discrepancy might create a lot of confusion for some fans, but that is really not a shortcoming of the stat, but rather a shortcoming of the fans who haven't studied the stat enough.

 

That is not meant to be a knock on the fans who don't care about WAR. Not everyone has the interest to dig deeper into advance stats, and that's perfectly fine. However, if that's the case, it's really not right for those people to blow WAR off as somewhat useless because of that discrepancy.

[Kimmi]

FanGraphs uses Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) as the baseline. It does count infield popups as strikeouts, as they are practically automatic outs.

 

Baseball-Reference uses a pitcher’s runs allowed and then adjusts that value based on the overall quality of their defense that year.

 

 

So a pitcher can do worse in bWAR than fWAR on a team that plays poor defense, especially a pitcher with excellent K% and K/BB numbers. but with an elevated HR rate (which leads to more runs allowed). So yes ARcher could be a lot worse in bWAR than fWAR.

 

I prefer fWAR as it is based on three outcomes the pitcher can control

 

fWAR gives a better indication of how the pitcher performed, while bWAR gives a better indication of what actually happened on the field. In terms of looking forward to the next season, fWAR is a slightly better predictive stat.

 

Personally, I prefer fWAR as well.

[Kimmi]

It's a deal I would consider, but we all know Dombrowski won't. He wouldn't deal Benintendi for Sale, so he certainly won't trade him for Archer.

 

And the Rays are extremely unlikely to take Bradley or Bogaerts for Archer. So extra pitching needs to come from somewhere else. ...

 

It may be my personal bias, but I am very reluctant to give up Beni in a trade. I was not on board with trading Beni for Stanton either.

 

I have no idea where extra pitching is going to come from, but I really don't think Dombrowski plans on adding anything more than depth type pieces in terms of pitching. He is focused on the big bat.

[notin]

It may be my personal bias, but I am very reluctant to give up Beni in a trade. I was not on board with trading Beni for Stanton either.

 

I have no idea where extra pitching is going to come from, but I really don't think Dombrowski plans on adding anything more than depth type pieces in terms of pitching. He is focused on the big bat.

 

And while I get the need for the bat and the long-lasting staring contest with Boras, maybe he could divert a little of that focus into addressing some of the other needs on this team.

 

The season ended 12 weeks ago and so far the biggest addition has been Esteban Quiroz. Or has it been Mike Olt? That debate more than proves my point. ..

[oldtimer]

And while I get the need for the bat and the long-lasting staring contest with Boras, maybe he could divert a little of that focus into addressing some of the other needs on this team.

 

The season ended 12 weeks ago and so far the biggest addition has been Esteban Quiroz. Or has it been Mike Olt? That debate more than proves my point. ..

 

We don't know the behind the scenes offers and negotiations going on and we just assume DD has made a sensible offer for JD and Boras is delaying the decision, trying to get more from Boston or from some other team. If we have offered $25 mil per year, it leaves us with very little flexibility to acquire other sought after pieces before they get taken by others. That's why I advocate attaching a deadline to our offer. Take it or leave it, and then move on. Nunez and a left handed reliever plus a big bat in the $6 mil region for one year and we have a complete team. I am sure there are other scenarios that would be attractive although JD best fills our need.

[Kimmi]

We don't know the behind the scenes offers and negotiations going on and we just assume DD has made a sensible offer for JD and Boras is delaying the decision, trying to get more from Boston or from some other team. If we have offered $25 mil per year, it leaves us with very little flexibility to acquire other sought after pieces before they get taken by others. That's why I advocate attaching a deadline to our offer. Take it or leave it, and then move on. Nunez and a left handed reliever plus a big bat in the $6 mil region for one year and we have a complete team. I am sure there are other scenarios that would be attractive although JD best fills our need.

 

I'm sure that Dombrowski is on the phone every day with many teams discussing various trade options. He is not just sitting around idly, waiting for JD to accept his offer. That said, if Dombrowski is truly set on adding JD, there's not a whole lot else that he can do until JD makes a decision. His hands are tied.

 

Attaching a deadline to his offer is a good idea, but then Dombrowski (and fans) have to be willing to accept that JD might decide to play elsewhere.

 

I understand that fans are getting antsy about not having signed a big bat yet. I imagine that JD is also getting antsy. I'm sure he's fully aware of what happened with Encarnacion last year and the contract that he had to 'settle' for. I have to think that JD will sign with a team very soon.

[Elktonnick]

I surmise based on various comments I've heard on MLB radio and elsewhere that the issue with Martinez is the length of the contract not the am't of money per year. Most presume that Martinez is likely to get a longer contract from an AL club as opposed to a NL club because of the DH. Some have indicated that Hosmer ( also a Boras client) was looking for a deal longer than 7 years and that may be the issue with Martinez as well. We all know that Scott Boras's preferred MO is to wait. In any case, if the Red Sox really want Martinez for a reasonable length of time then they will just have to play this waiting game a bit longer.

[harmony]

We don't know the behind the scenes offers and negotiations going on and we just assume DD has made a sensible offer for JD and Boras is delaying the decision, trying to get more from Boston or from some other team. If we have offered $25 mil per year, it leaves us with very little flexibility to acquire other sought after pieces before they get taken by others. That's why I advocate attaching a deadline to our offer. Take it or leave it, and then move on. Nunez and a left handed reliever plus a big bat in the $6 mil region for one year and we have a complete team. I am sure there are other scenarios that would be attractive although JD best fills our need.

I suspect every offer -- whether from the team or from the player -- has an expiration date: ie, this offer will remain open until X date. That leaves open the possibility that parties will resume negotiations down the road if the market changes.

 

I don't doubt Scott Boras and the Red Sox have exchanged offers on J.D. Martinez. If Martinez signs with the Red Sox -- still a distinct possibility -- Boras will likely lower his current demands while the Red Sox enhance their best-to-date offer.

 

Reviewing projected team payrolls, I wonder whether Martinez will sign with a team that has money to spend, a club such as the Phillies, White Sox or Brewers.

[moonslav59]

DD does not have to move quickly with JD unless his option B (or C , D...) is getting close to signing with someone else. Then, and only then would some sort of drop dead time limit on the JD offer possibly be issued. Edited January 1, 2018 by moonslav59

[harmony]

DD does not have to move quickly with JD unless his option B (or C , D...) is getting close to signing with someone else. Then, and only then would some sort of drop dead time limit on the JD offer possibly be issued.

The offers from each side typically get better as negotiations progress but market changes could result in an offer getting worse from the recipient's perspective.

 

A front office almost never negotiates for a single player in a vacuum; the team is always busy working concurrent plans.

[moonslav59]

The offers from each side typically get better as negotiations progress but market changes could result in an offer getting worse from the recipient's perspective.

 

A front office almost never negotiates for a single player in a vacuum; the team is always busy working concurrent plans.

 

Yes, I get that, but once one's secondary options begin to disappear as they sign elsewhere, a sense of urgency sets in and a time to accept or decline might be issues out of fear of losing all contingencies by waiting it out. We also lose leverage as secondary options are signed elsewhere.

 

Luckily, for us, i think, nobody else is signing either.

 

[Spudboy]

DD does not have to move quickly with JD unless his option B (or C , D...) is getting close to signing with someone else. Then, and only then would some sort of drop dead time limit on the JD offer possibly be issued.

 

I'd be interested to know who options B, C, and D are.

 

I am not of the opinion that JD is THE silver bullet that will magically propel the Sox offense to the stratosphere. However, I am not aware of any other available FA that have the "Big Bat" moniker.

 

I am resolved to watching more of what Kimmi suggests. 162 games need to be played. That is a long season. Yeah, the Yankees appear loaded on paper. So what?

 

I would have loved to have seen Stanton in a Sox uni but that ship never sailed even close to Boston and I don't see JD as a transformational player.

[harmony]

I'd be interested to know who options B, C, and D are.

Jay Bruce, Jose Bautista and Carlos Gonzalez?

 

Front office typically don't share that information.

[notin]

Jay Bruce, Jose Bautista and Carlos Gonzalez?

 

Front office typically don't share that information.

 

Possibly Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta if they are thinking of going in a different direction as well

[Kimmi]

I surmise based on various comments I've heard on MLB radio and elsewhere that the issue with Martinez is the length of the contract not the am't of money per year. Most presume that Martinez is likely to get a longer contract from an AL club as opposed to a NL club because of the DH. Some have indicated that Hosmer ( also a Boras client) was looking for a deal longer than 7 years and that may be the issue with Martinez as well. We all know that Scott Boras's preferred MO is to wait. In any case, if the Red Sox really want Martinez for a reasonable length of time then they will just have to play this waiting game a bit longer.

 

JD is crazy if he's looking for a deal longer than 7 years. Seriously, I would not go more than 5 years, and even that is too long. I really think our offense will be better than it was last year, even with no further offensive moves being made. If JD won't accept 5 years or less, then no thanks, and turn your attention to another top starting pitcher.

[oldtimer]

Jay Bruce, Jose Bautista and Carlos Gonzalez?

 

Front office typically don't share that information.

 

Bruce, Nunez and a lefty reliever vs JD. Less years and the same or less money.

[Kimmi]

I'd be interested to know who options B, C, and D are.

 

I am not of the opinion that JD is THE silver bullet that will magically propel the Sox offense to the stratosphere. However, I am not aware of any other available FA that have the "Big Bat" moniker.

 

I am resolved to watching more of what Kimmi suggests. 162 games need to be played. That is a long season. Yeah, the Yankees appear loaded on paper. So what?

 

I would have loved to have seen Stanton in a Sox uni but that ship never sailed even close to Boston and I don't see JD as a transformational player.

 

Well, here's what Fangraphs has to say about how the Yankees look on paper as of January 1.

 

Peter Gammons

‏Verified account @pgammo

 

New Year's, Fangraphs project the Yanks/Red Sox each 91-71 w/+104 RD, in playoffs w/Astros, Guardians, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Nats, Cards, D'Backs

 

I realize that the projections mean little in terms of what actually happens on the field, but perhaps the mighty Yankees aren't the overwhelming favorites that some think they are. Or maybe our Sox aren't as bad off as some think they are.

[oldtimer]

JD is crazy if he's looking for a deal longer than 7 years. Seriously, I would not go more than 5 years, and even that is too long. I really think our offense will be better than it was last year, even with no further offensive moves being made. If JD won't accept 5 years or less, then no thanks, and turn your attention to another top starting pitcher.

 

5 Years would be my limit as well.

[notin]

JD is crazy if he's looking for a deal longer than 7 years. Seriously, I would not go more than 5 years, and even that is too long. I really think our offense will be better than it was last year, even with no further offensive moves being made. If JD won't accept 5 years or less, then no thanks, and turn your attention to another top starting pitcher.

 

I'd be ok with 5 years. But part of me is hoping he ages like Edwin Encarnacion. ..

[Elktonnick]

JD is crazy if he's looking for a deal longer than 7 years. Seriously, I would not go more than 5 years, and even that is too long. I really think our offense will be better than it was last year, even with no further offensive moves being made. If JD won't accept 5 years or less, then no thanks, and turn your attention to another top starting pitcher.

 

I think your post accurately reflects Dombrowski's thinking. I suspect the holdup all along is the length of any contract and we will just have to wait to see how this plays out.