2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[harmony]

Why would the Giants do that? They have to put up with rapidly declining Ellsbury for longer than they would have Hicks. And they have to spend more on Ellsbury than they do on Melancon.

 

And why do you think the Giants are so desperate to move Melancon? He's been there one season and he spent a lot of that injured. Unless he is not going to be healthy again, it's probably not worth it to them. And if he is going to have health problems, the Yankees might nix the deal. (Although they might not anyway if they can drop Ellsbury.)

 

I don't think Adam Warren and Aaron Hicks are enough enticement for the Giants here. Especially since they are the team taking on $7mill and now they need a closer, which can be VERY costly. You would need to replace Warren with someone more appealing, like Chad Green. At minimum. Balances out the salaries better and doesn't screw the Giants as badly...

With $48 million remaining on his contract, Mark Melancon's health is critical.

 

If Melancon fails to rebound from the 2017 injuries, the contract remains under water. If Melancon has a great year the veteran may opt out with only two years and $28 million remaining on his contract (according to the Cot's spread sheet for the Giants).

 

 

Sam Dyson, who led the Giants in saves last year, would be the San Francisco closer with competition from Hunter Strickland, Adam Warren and Will Smith, who is returning from an injury.

 

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter and 65 innings for each reliever, projects 2018 WAR of 2.6 for Aaron Hicks, 0.8 for Jacoby Ellsbury, 0.2 for Adam Warren and 0.6 for Mark Melancon.

 

ZiPS projects 2018 WAR of 1.9 in 423 plate appearances for Hicks, 1.3 in 473 plate appearances for Ellsbury, 1.0 in 60 innings for Warren and 1.1 in 50 innings for Melancon.

 

The Giants' Spring Training facility is located in Scottsdale, where Ellsbury reportedly lives in the offseason.

Edited January 13, 2018 by harmony

[notin]

With $48 million remaining on his contract, Mark Melancon's health is critical.

 

If Melancon fails to rebound from the 2017 injuries, the contract remains under water. If Melancon has a great year the veteran may opt out with only two years and $28 million remaining on his contract (according to the Cot's spread sheet for the Giants).

 

 

Sam Dyson, who led the Giants in saves last year, would be the San Francisco closer with competition from Hunter Strickland, Adam Warren and Will Smith, who is returning from an injury.

 

 

I do think the Giants would still rather have Melancon.

 

Steamer is projecting 0.3 fWAR (231PA) for Ellsbury and 0.7 fWAR for Melancon next season.

 

Over a full season that makes both players roughly equal. But Melancon is still cheaper...

[Spudboy]

MVP likes to have a little fun which is never a bad thing. I grew up watching Ted and I still believe that he was the greatest hitter that I have ever seen. Great fisherman, and fighter pilot as well.

 

I never saw him play. To me, his big moment was asking Nomar if he could smell the burning wood of his bat.

 

That moment spelled baseball for me.

[moonslav59]

Which is why it seems unlikely any team will go much more than 5/125 for JDM. As we've been talking about, the data heads seem to have taken over the thinking of FO's.

 

I'm talking myself out of wanting JD for anything more than $120-125M/5.

 

I wouldn't be upset, if someone else signs him for $115M/5

[Larry Cook]

I'm talking myself out of wanting JD for anything more than $120-125M/5.

 

I wouldn't be upset, if someone else signs him for $115M/5

 

I would not mind seeing him play for anybody else. The guy has an iron glove in the field and not worth 25 million a year let alone the 30 million he is asking for.

 

Now is our chance to sign pitching!!!!!

[Bellhorn04]

I wouldn't be upset, if someone else signs him for $115M/5

 

Really? A few weeks ago I think we would have happily jumped all over that. It's just over half of Boras's original ask.

 

I think all this waiting is just starting to make us a little sour.

[notin]

Really? A few weeks ago I think we would have happily jumped all over that. It's just over half of Boras's original ask.

 

I think all this waiting is just starting to make us a little sour.

 

I'm sour about it. I admit it.

 

But also at some point, it is simply time to move on.

 

I am surprised about the lack of activity of the lesser players, however. I don't believe the future of, say, Lucas Duda, is that heavily tied to JD Martinez. Or that the future of Jeremy Hellickson is all that connected to Jake Arrieta. I'm a little surprised a lot of the tier 2 and tier 3 guys haven't been moved...

[dgalehouse]

Another example of how insane things are in MLB. The Mets settled with Matt Harvey for what was described as a "meager raise" of $ 500,000.00 . Half million bucks for a guy who did absolutely nothing to deserve a raise of any kind. You just can't compare baseball money to what most people deal with in everyday life. It is an entirely different world.

[Bellhorn04]

Another example of how insane things are in MLB. The Mets settled with Matt Harvey for what was described as a "meager raise" of $ 500,000.00 . Half million bucks for a guy who did absolutely nothing to deserve a raise of any kind. You just can't compare baseball money to what most people deal with in everyday life. It is an entirely different world.

 

That's all very true, dgale. On the other side of the coin, an average major league baseball player has a very short career as such.

[notin]

Matt Harvey also severely jeopardized his career (and earning potential) by ignoring a doctor's (and agent's) advice to pitch in the post-season three years ago...

[a700hitter]

Another example of how insane things are in MLB. The Mets settled with Matt Harvey for what was described as a "meager raise" of $ 500,000.00 . Half million bucks for a guy who did absolutely nothing to deserve a raise of any kind. You just can't compare baseball money to what most people deal with in everyday life. It is an entirely different world.

There is a good bet that he will get released this season. Harvey is shot.

[Spudboy]

I'm sour about it. I admit it.

 

But also at some point, it is simply time to move on.

 

I am surprised about the lack of activity of the lesser players, however. I don't believe the future of, say, Lucas Duda, is that heavily tied to JD Martinez. Or that the future of Jeremy Hellickson is all that connected to Jake Arrieta. I'm a little surprised a lot of the tier 2 and tier 3 guys haven't been moved...

 

You are not alone in this thinking.

 

Something has to break soon.

[Spudboy]

That's all very true, dgale. On the other side of the coin, an average major league baseball player has a very short career as such.

 

Of course I always respect your opinion.

 

But the kind of money some of these guys make is obscenely out of balance with lifelong expenses.

[baseball jones]

Reed just signed a two year deal with the twins...

[Bellhorn04]

Of course I always respect your opinion.

 

But the kind of money some of these guys make is obscenely out of balance with lifelong expenses.

 

I don't disagree with that either. If you make it to MLB and have a really good season or two, you can really hit the jackpot.

[baseball jones]

astros got cole from pirates

[notin]

I don't disagree with that either. If you make it to MLB and have a really good season or two, you can really hit the jackpot.

 

I think Gary Matthews Jr has that tattooed on his forehead...

[moonslav59]

Astros Acquire Gerrit Cole

By Connor Byrne | January 13, 2018 at 6:05pm CDT

 

The Astros have acquired right-hander Gerrit Cole from the Pirates for righties Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz, third baseman Colin Moran and outfielder Jason Martin, according to announcements from both teams.

[Larry Cook]

Astros Acquire Gerrit Cole

By Connor Byrne | January 13, 2018 at 6:05pm CDT

 

The Astros have acquired right-hander Gerrit Cole from the Pirates for righties Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz, third baseman Colin Moran and outfielder Jason Martin, according to announcements from both teams.

 

 

I think the pirates did a good job on this. I really thought there would be more pitching involved.

[moonslav59]

I think the pirates did a good job on this. I really thought there would be more pitching involved.

 

I think the Astros made out better.

 

I'm not sure how good the two prospects are, but I live near Houston and never heard of them.

 

Makes me wonder, if we could have gotten him for ERod and Hembree.

 

[oldtimer]

I think the Astros made out better.

 

I'm not sure how good the two prospects are, but I live near Houston and never heard of them.

 

Makes me wonder, if we could have gotten him for ERod and Hembree.

 

 

Sitting ans waiting for JD takes us out of the sweepstakes for opportunities like Cole.

[S5Dewey]

I'm starting to feel the same way, but I wouldn't give up on JD until maybe Morrison or Moose are close to signing elsewhere. There is no hurry, until our plan B options are about to be signed elsewhere.[/quote

 

But do we know when Morrison or Moose are close to signing elsewhere?

 

IMO JD is the best fit for the Sox and the Sox may be the best "fit" for him when the money is considered. Frankly, I'm tired of being held hostage to someone who's holding out for another year on his contract while being offered >$100MM. In fact, the longer he drags this out the less sure I am that I want him on the team anyway.

 

If I'm DD I contact Bora$$ this morning and make it clear that '"5/current offer" is all the Sox are going to do and JD has 48 hours to make up his mind. And if he opts not to, well, I hope he enjoys not contending for a division championship and not contending for a ring.'

[S5Dewey]

I've often thought that negotiations for contract extensions between teams and players - as well as arbitration cases- "poison the well" between teams and players. They create hard feelings that wouldn't otherwise exist. Now I'm feeling the same way about Free Agent holdouts.

[harmony]

I'm starting to feel the same way, but I wouldn't give up on JD until maybe Morrison or Moose are close to signing elsewhere. There is no hurry, until our plan B options are about to be signed elsewhere.[/quote

 

But do we know when Morrison or Moose are close to signing elsewhere?

 

IMO JD is the best fit for the Sox and the Sox may be the best "fit" for him when the money is considered. Frankly, I'm tired of being held hostage to someone who's holding out for another year on his contract while being offered >$100MM. In fact, the longer he drags this out the less sure I am that I want him on the team anyway.

 

If I'm DD I contact Bora$$ this morning and make it clear that '"5/current offer" is all the Sox are going to do and JD has 48 hours to make up his mind. And if he opts not to, well, I hope he enjoys not contending for a division championship and not contending for a ring.'

I would not be surprised if Dave Dombrowski has already made that offer and that J.D. Martinez has rejected it because the top free agent hitter has better offers.

 

Absent collusion, the team that signs J.D. Martinez is likely to overpay. The Red Sox might not want to be that team.

[Bellhorn04]

I would not be surprised if Dave Dombrowski has already made that offer and that J.D. Martinez has rejected it because the top free agent hitter has better offers.

 

Absent collusion, the team that signs J.D. Martinez is likely to overpay. The Red Sox might not want to be that team.

 

Overpay, sure. But it seems pretty clear at this point that JDM is not sniffing that 7/210 target of Boras.

[harmony]

I've often thought that negotiations for contract extensions between teams and players - as well as arbitration cases- "poison the well" between teams and players. They create hard feelings that wouldn't otherwise exist. Now I'm feeling the same way about Free Agent holdouts.

Agents and MLB front offices have professionals who understand each other's positions. The sides avoid poisoning the well, such as labeling the adversary "Bora$$" or telling him "I hope he enjoys not contending for a division championship and not contending for a ring."*

 

We leave that to unprofessional fans.

 

* especially from a club, with three first-place finishes and three last-place finishes in the last six years, that is barely projected among in the top quarter of 2018 teams:

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

[Bellhorn04]

Agents and MLB front offices have professionals who understand each other's positions. The sides avoid poisoning the well, such as labeling the adversary "Bora$$" or telling him "I hope he enjoys not contending for a division championship and not contending for a ring."*

 

We leave that to unprofessional fans.

 

* especially from a club, with three first-place finishes and three last-place finishes in the last six years, that is barely projected among in the top quarter of 2018 teams:

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

 

Well, I see that the gloves are really off now.

[notin]

Sitting ans waiting for JD takes us out of the sweepstakes for opportunities like Cole.

 

Trading for Kimbrel, Pomeranz and Sale took us out of the sweepstakes for Cole....

[Bellhorn04]

Agents and MLB front offices have professionals who understand each other's positions. The sides avoid poisoning the well, such as labeling the adversary "Bora$$" or telling him "I hope he enjoys not contending for a division championship and not contending for a ring."*

 

We leave that to unprofessional fans.

 

I would argue that Scott Boras has indeed made some unprofessional comments, the most recent of which was a public statement comparing the Miami Marlins to a 'pawn shop' - exactly the type of comment you normally read on a message board.

 

Who knows what he says in private?

[moonslav59]

Sitting ans waiting for JD takes us out of the sweepstakes for opportunities like Cole.

 

I disagree. We could have offered as much as ERod, Hembree and Beeks, which has nothing to do with JD.