2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Jack Flap]

JD is older and will be a DH sooner rather than later. I think he'll get a higher AAV than Hosmer, but he shouldn't get 7 years.

[S5Dewey]

I would disagree. The opt out clause helps teams immensely. I'd rather see Price give the Sox three good, well-paid years and then move on rather than aging poorly and spending his last year or two as a financial sinkhole that limits the Sox from making moves and retaining younger players. Any deal over 5 years for a player 30 or over without an opt-out clause is a huge mistake, IMO.

 

But that only works if Price opts to move on. If he doesn't move on we're stuck with his salary over the last two years of his contract when, as you said, there's a better chance of his becoming that financial sinkhole. Based on the first two years of the contract he'd be nutso to give up a guaranteed $30MM to move on after this year even if he pitches well.

 

Maybe I'm too conservative but if I were in his position I wouldn't walk away from $60MM in the hope I might get $65MM... or not. It would be interesting to see if anyone would give him that kind of money based on a good year in 2018 considering what he did in 2016 & 2017, his playoff record, and that elbow.

[S5Dewey]

If Eric Hosmer has a seven-year, $147 million offer from the Kansas City Royals, as reported:

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/01/03/eric-hosmer-offered-seven-year-147-million-deal-return-royals/998796001/

 

... I suspect J.D. Martinez will get better offers.

 

The loser of the apparent Hosmer bidding contest between the Royals and the Padres may turn their attention to Martinez.

 

If Hosmer has that kind of money in front of him he should sign quickly before the Royals change their mind.

[mvp 78]

Scherzer would have been a better acquisition, obviously. Have to blame Henry on that one, I think.

 

No doubt!

[mvp 78]

I couldn't believe Dave got snookered into this contract at the time. It guaranteed that Price would be one of the highest paid pitchers in the league for the first three years, almost guaranteed that he'd leave after three years if he was pitching well, and guaranteed that we'd be paying him $30MM/year if he was pitching poorly. Would you want that guy negotiating YOUR divorce??

 

Who knows? Maybe JDM is holding out for a contract like this, thinking Dave will make the same mistake twice.

 

Reminder to Dave: Just say NO to long term expensive contracts with an opt out clause only for the player.

 

You can blame Dave all you want, but I guarantee that Henry approved of the deal.

[S5Dewey]

I'm with you... I've never agreed with the premise that the opt-out is only good for the player. Even if Price had three healthy, Cy Young caliber years in Boston, I'd still happily let him walk and let someone else overpay for his mid and late 30's, knowing we got what was likely the best part of the original deal at a reasonable price and could then spend that $30 million on younger players.

 

I'd probably never offer a long-term contract without one.

 

Really? One of the things that's usually understood in these long term contracts is that you're getting his best years first and you pay later for the right to those best years. If Price had already had three CY caliber years in baseball he could opt out and leave a hole in the Sox pitching staff that most likely wouldn't be filled with $30MM. Those CY guys don't grow on trees and they don't come cheap.

 

Spending what's left of that $30MM on younger players after signing someone who isn't CY caliber isn't a bad idea, as long as the team doesn't plan to be competitive every year.

[S5Dewey]

You can blame Dave all you want, but I guarantee that Henry approved of the deal.

 

Meh. I wasn't establishing blame as much as lamenting the fact that the FO signed off on the deal. DD was just the front man.

[Station 13]

Why is San Diego so desperate to sign a 1B? Isn't Myers their half-assed 1B already? Why would they invest twice as much for another?

[mvp 78]

Why is San Diego so desperate to sign a 1B? Isn't Myers their half-assed 1B already? Why would they invest twice as much for another?

 

Myers would go back to OF.

[Hitch]

Slav, if you sign Machado, you lose $1 mil in INTL funds, which also drops how much you can trade for btw. You also lose a 2nd and 5th rounder. By signing Machado and going over the final threshold, your 1st rounder will be 10 spots back. You're losing 10 spots in the draft including the slot allotment, 2 other draft picks one being a second rounder, and the opportunity to spend $1.8 mil in the INTL realm (you can trade for up to 80% of your allotment). That is an absolute season killer in terms of bringing in talent

 

I agree that there is almost zero chance we sign both, but there won't be a QO for Machado.

[mvp 78]

I agree that there is almost zero chance we sign both, but there won't be a QO for Machado.

 

Yup, because he's being traded midseason 100%.

[Hitch]

I wouldn't be shocked if we work a deal out with them this winter. But it's a long shot, no doubt.

[OH FOY]

OK say we Trade and get Machado, what's the contract, that guarantees he stays? Otherwise he's walking after one year. Don't get caught up on who we gave up, just the salary. Your best guess. Edited January 3, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Scherzer would have been a better acquisition, obviously. Have to blame Henry on that one, I think.

 

Or, Larry/Ben.

 

We spent a lot of money that year- just not on Scherzer.

 

HRam + Pablo instead of Scherzer.

[Hitch]

OK say we Trade and get Machado, what's the contract, that guarantees he stays? Otherwise he's walking after one year. Don't get caught up on who we gave up, just the salary. Your best guess.

 

10 @ $300m is my guess.

[mvp 78]

OK say we Trade and get Machado, what's the contract, that guarantees he stays? Otherwise he's walking after one year. Don't get caught up on who we gave up, just the salary. Your best guess.

 

If you give him a 8/300 contract on day 1, he signs.

[mvp 78]

10 @ $300m is my guess.

 

I think he would want to have a higher AAV. Highest AAV right now is Greinke at 34.4M.

[OH FOY]

If you give him a 8/300 contract on day 1, he signs.

 

Good guess. I like the 8 years too.

[Bellhorn04]

A 37.5 mill AAV really chews up a lot of payroll room LOL

[Hitch]

I think he would want to have a higher AAV. Highest AAV right now is Greinke at 34.4M.

 

Yeah possibly. 8 years definitely get's it done, but I wouldn't do that contract. As Bellhorn said, it eats up too much of our budget.

[OH FOY]

When does the contract start? This year? That might be the difference, no? If any doubt that its too much, for you, then trading for him is not smart.

[OH FOY]

Duquette was always a good talent evaluator. The old time kind, probably went to all our Minor League games, and saw in person our best talent. He built a dominating Expo team, by Trading for other teams Prospects, and Drafting.

He's no dummy.

Edited January 3, 2018 by OH FOY!

[cp176]

When you don't have any pitching you have to get it from trades or free agency. Dombrowski did both and has been lambasted in some quarters for virtually every big-ticket move.

 

DD is going to get lambasted for whatever he does. GMs tend to. With Hosmer off the table, I would agree with Oldtimer, give Boras a number with a deadline attached and if he is offended by that so be it. He would likely wind up playing somewhere else for less than what the Sox would pay. If DD had acted earlier, we would have had to sift through the pages of whatever he did being done in panic mode. He is a tough negoiator and and now people seem worried and upset by his lack of moves. Also for what it is worth, if JD signs here it would not bother me one bit if the Machado trade was then made even if there was no guarantee that he would be with us after one season. I don't like Machado but I do like his game. I think Bogaerts would be easy to replace this year, next year, or next next year.

[Hitch]

When does the contract start? This year? That might be the difference, no? If any doubt that its too much, for you, then trading for him is not smart.

 

I'd trade 2 years of Bogey for one year of Machado. I know it'll take an extra piece or two, to get it done, but if we could get it to a reasonable deal I'd make the trade, regardless of the extension.

[harmony]

I nominate "desperate" as the most overused word of the Hot Stove season.

[Jack Flap]

Really? One of the things that's usually understood in these long term contracts is that you're getting his best years first and you pay later for the right to those best years.

 

Isn't that kind of the appeal of the opt-out, though? You get what are likely the best, least risky years, and let someone else pick up the tab for the later, riskier ones. That's if everything goes well, of course...if things go south (as they seem to have with Price and the Red Sox, unfortunately), you're stuck with the entire contract, but that would be the case with or without the opt-out.

 

If Price had already had three CY caliber years in baseball he could opt out and leave a hole in the Sox pitching staff that most likely wouldn't be filled with $30MM. Those CY guys don't grow on trees and they don't come cheap.

 

Spending what's left of that $30MM on younger players after signing someone who isn't CY caliber isn't a bad idea, as long as the team doesn't plan to be competitive every year.

 

But this kind of assumes that, if Price was worth the money in years 1-3, he will be in years 4-7 as well, and I don't think that follows...sure, he might be, and you might end up wishing you had him for those last few years at $30 million, but I think I'd take that chance. With how often these mega free agent deals turn out poorly on the back end, I'd take a 30-32 y/o Price at 3/90 and let someone else worry about ages 33+ every time.

 

But that's just me, and I realize it runs against the conventional wisdom on opt outs. I see it as an easy win-win for the player, obviously, but neutral at worst for the team, with a chance at getting out from under a looming albatross if circumstances break just right...

 

 

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[Jack Flap]

I haven't found a link for this yet (will post it if I do), but over on SoxProspects it was posted that Jim Bowden said in a discussion on MLB Network that the Red Sox had offered a position player off their MLB roster (maybe Bogaerts?) and Jason Groome for Machado. Since that, meager as it is, is as close to real news as we've had in a while, I was curious what you all thought.

 

For my part, though I'd love to have Machado the player, trading significant assets to rent him for one year just doesn't make sense. In a down year for both, Machado wasn't significantly more valuable than Bogaerts in 2017 (2.8 vs 3.2 fWAR / 3.5 vs 2.2 bWAR), while Xander comes with an extra year of control and I still don't feel like we've seen his best yet.

 

I can't see it...and yet the rumors aren't going away.

[mvp 78]

A 37.5 mill AAV really chews up a lot of payroll room LOL

 

Yup, but the question was: what's the contract, that guarantees he stays?

 

That's the amount that guarantees he stays and avoids FA.

[Hitch]

 

I can't see it...and yet the rumors aren't going away.

 

The rumours are all off the same article to be fair. There isn't new news on the topic, just recycled news.

[S5Dewey]

If you give him a 8/300 contract on day 1, he signs.

 

That's too much money to reward a punk with just because he can play baseball.