2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

If you sign JD, there’s no earthly way you also sign Machado. You be so far over the upper tax limit that Henry would need to refinance

[cp176]

If you sign JD, there’s no earthly way you also sign Machado. You be so far over the upper tax limit that Henry would need to refinance

 

Let's see - billionaire. Now I'm not one of those but I do get the difference between millions and billions. You are starting to quake aren't you? Let's go - all in here.

[cp176]

Now I don't know you but even though you spend a good deal of time on this site, I still think that you might be a decent person. I don't like the Yankees just so you know and boy would this be a nut shot to them.

[jd98]

MLB has to approve all contracts, of course.

 

Could they veto contracts that are obviously just trying to drastically lower AAV to avoid the luxury tax?

 

I guess it would be hard to get the big free agents to do something as extreme as my example because they want to assure something decent long term in case of major injury. You could still do it on a smaller scale. Yankees could've added 2 1M opt out yrs to CC, and he goes from 10M AAV to 3.3. Do that for some other contracts and you can afford another big one. Not much risk to it. A player would have to have career ending type injury, then you're still just paying 1M/yr for X yrs. Savings from staying under luxury limit would outweigh that.

Edit: You'd also be stuck with the AAV during the opt-out years, so there is more potential risk.

Edited January 3, 2018 by jd98

[jacksonianmarch]

Your lineup would certainly be formidable with JD Martinez and Machado. But like I said, that's a pipe dream. I think the O's owner is so full of dogshit that he wouldn't dare deal Machado to Boston, even if he would get the best return. So that leaves FA. I am one who entirely thinks JD ends up in Boston, which would push your salary close to the upper tax limit. After 2018, your arb guys get even more expensive and you need to either re-sign or replace Pomeranz and Kimbrel. I don't think the sox have an internal candidate to replace Kimbrel, so you'd need to foray into the closers market which will be bonkers and Kimbrel might end up close to $20 mil a season. JD slides back into the DH slot so you wont have to replace HanRam and his $22 mil comes off the books which gives you some breathing room to go after another #2/3 starter and closer, but most of that would be eaten by arb raises to the killer B's.

 

I know Henry can afford crossing any tax limit, but there is a new wrinkle in the CBA that really hits overspending owners. The tax on money above $230 mil is 90% and your top draft pick drops back 10 spots. If you consider the sox are already at a disadvantage due to a decimated farm AND they will be picking at the back end of the draft (presumably due to a probable playoff run), a deal for Machado would knock out their 2nd and 5th rounder (as comp for signing a QO player), they'd lose $1 mil of INTL funds, and your 1st rounder would effectively be moved to the end of the sup round or into the beginning of the 2nd round. That would be death on a team staring into the abyss ont he player development end

[moonslav59]

Your lineup would certainly be formidable with JD Martinez and Machado. But like I said, that's a pipe dream. I think the O's owner is so full of dogshit that he wouldn't dare deal Machado to Boston, even if he would get the best return. So that leaves FA. I am one who entirely thinks JD ends up in Boston, which would push your salary close to the upper tax limit. After 2018, your arb guys get even more expensive and you need to either re-sign or replace Pomeranz and Kimbrel. I don't think the sox have an internal candidate to replace Kimbrel, so you'd need to foray into the closers market which will be bonkers and Kimbrel might end up close to $20 mil a season. JD slides back into the DH slot so you wont have to replace HanRam and his $22 mil comes off the books which gives you some breathing room to go after another #2/3 starter and closer, but most of that would be eaten by arb raises to the killer B's.

 

I know Henry can afford crossing any tax limit, but there is a new wrinkle in the CBA that really hits overspending owners. The tax on money above $230 mil is 90% and your top draft pick drops back 10 spots. If you consider the sox are already at a disadvantage due to a decimated farm AND they will be picking at the back end of the draft (presumably due to a probable playoff run), a deal for Machado would knock out their 2nd and 5th rounder (as comp for signing a QO player), they'd lose $1 mil of INTL funds, and your 1st rounder would effectively be moved to the end of the sup round or into the beginning of the 2nd round. That would be death on a team staring into the abyss ont he player development end

 

Moving a 26th pick to 36th is not "death" to any team.

 

The 90% tax is only on the amount over the second threshold.

 

Neither is too harmful, when you're talking about adding Machado.

 

It's the step up tax rates after year 2 that would hurt most, and signing JD and Machado pretty much assures we will be over the limit for at least 3 or more years.

 

Maybe we miss out on the QO costs, if Machado is traded mid season (or traded to us).

[cp176]

Your lineup would certainly be formidable with JD Martinez and Machado. But like I said, that's a pipe dream. I think the O's owner is so full of dogshit that he wouldn't dare deal Machado to Boston, even if he would get the best return. So that leaves FA. I am one who entirely thinks JD ends up in Boston, which would push your salary close to the upper tax limit. After 2018, your arb guys get even more expensive and you need to either re-sign or replace Pomeranz and Kimbrel. I don't think the sox have an internal candidate to replace Kimbrel, so you'd need to foray into the closers market which will be bonkers and Kimbrel might end up close to $20 mil a season. JD slides back into the DH slot so you wont have to replace HanRam and his $22 mil comes off the books which gives you some breathing room to go after another #2/3 starter and closer, but most of that would be eaten by arb raises to the killer B's.

 

I know Henry can afford crossing any tax limit, but there is a new wrinkle in the CBA that really hits overspending owners. The tax on money above $230 mil is 90% and your top draft pick drops back 10 spots. If you consider the sox are already at a disadvantage due to a decimated farm AND they will be picking at the back end of the draft (presumably due to a probable playoff run), a deal for Machado would knock out their 2nd and 5th rounder (as comp for signing a QO player), they'd lose $1 mil of INTL funds, and your 1st rounder would effectively be moved to the end of the sup round or into the beginning of the 2nd round. That would be death on a team staring into the abyss ont he player development end

 

I think that you are over talking this! If a lowly little fan like me has thought of this possiblity, I'm betting DD has as well. I'd take that lineup against anything that comes out of Yankee stadium.

[notin]

If you sign JD, there’s no earthly way you also sign Machado. You be so far over the upper tax limit that Henry would need to refinance

 

Unless Price opts out, Hanley's option fails to vest, or they deal Porcello.

 

Two of those 3 should do it.

 

But this is all hypothetical anyway...

[harmony]

I haven't posted in a really long time, but I've got a question that someone here can probably answer. Is there something preventing a ridiculous front loaded contract with an opt out. Something like signing JD to a 15 yr contract, first 4 years at 30M, last 11 years at 1M, with an opt out after 4 years. That would essentially be 4/120 since he's guaranteed to opt out, but only counts as 8.7M toward luxury tax. Is this a real loophole to avoid luxury tax, or is there something preventing it?

I would think the opt-out would be treated the same as a team option because it is essentially a player option.

 

The AAV for luxury tax purposes should be calculated only on the guaranteed portion of the contract. When an option is exercised -- a team option or a player option -- the AAV should be recalculated only for the period of that option.

[moonslav59]

If HRam fails to vest and we decide to let Kimbrel (go with Smith/Thornburg) and Pom (go with ERod/Johnson/Velazquez/Beeks) walk, we could afford JD and Machado without hitting the second penalty level,/

[moonslav59]

I would think the opt-out would be treated the same as a team option because it is essentially a player option.

 

The AAV for luxury tax purposes should be calculated only on the guaranteed portion of the contract. When an option is exercised -- a team option or a player option -- the AAV should be recalculated only for the period of that option.

 

If there's a buyout, then the option year counts as a year and just the buyout counts on the AVV.

[FredLynn]

Unless Price opts out, Hanley's option fails to vest, or they deal Porcello.

 

Two of those 3 should do it.

 

But this is all hypothetical anyway...

 

As is just about everything else Sox-related this offseason.

Meanwhile us ordinary fans sit hear twittling our thumbs waiting for something to happen that is REAL.....and wagging our typing fingers about like chiclets bouncing over a tile floor.

Waiting........waiting......

[notin]

As is just about everything else Sox-related this offseason.

Meanwhile us ordinary fans sit hear twittling our thumbs waiting for something to happen that is REAL.....and wagging our typing fingers about like chiclets bouncing over a tile floor.

Waiting........waiting......

 

Tick.... tick.... tick.... tick.... tick.... tick.... tick.... tick.... tick.... tick.... tick.... tick.... tick.... tick.... tick.... tick....

[moonslav59]

This is a boring winter. Now that Notre Dame football is over, there's not much else to pay attention to.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Unless Price opts out, Hanley's option fails to vest, or they deal Porcello.

 

Two of those 3 should do it.

 

But this is all hypothetical anyway...

 

If Price opts out, then you wont want him to. The only way he opts out is if he has a CY quality 2018

[jacksonianmarch]

Moving a 26th pick to 36th is not "death" to any team.

 

The 90% tax is only on the amount over the second threshold.

 

Neither is too harmful, when you're talking about adding Machado.

 

It's the step up tax rates after year 2 that would hurt most, and signing JD and Machado pretty much assures we will be over the limit for at least 3 or more years.

 

Maybe we miss out on the QO costs, if Machado is traded mid season (or traded to us).

 

Slav, if you sign Machado, you lose $1 mil in INTL funds, which also drops how much you can trade for btw. You also lose a 2nd and 5th rounder. By signing Machado and going over the final threshold, your 1st rounder will be 10 spots back. You're losing 10 spots in the draft including the slot allotment, 2 other draft picks one being a second rounder, and the opportunity to spend $1.8 mil in the INTL realm (you can trade for up to 80% of your allotment). That is an absolute season killer in terms of bringing in talent

[moonslav59]

Slav, if you sign Machado, you lose $1 mil in INTL funds, which also drops how much you can trade for btw. You also lose a 2nd and 5th rounder. By signing Machado and going over the final threshold, your 1st rounder will be 10 spots back. You're losing 10 spots in the draft including the slot allotment, 2 other draft picks one being a second rounder, and the opportunity to spend $1.8 mil in the INTL realm (you can trade for up to 80% of your allotment). That is an absolute season killer in terms of bringing in talent

 

Baltimore will trade Machado, so no QO will be attached, unless they trade him to another team before the season starts.

 

If not, the only thing that scares me is the $1M Int'l money lost.

[cp176]

Slav, if you sign Machado, you lose $1 mil in INTL funds, which also drops how much you can trade for btw. You also lose a 2nd and 5th rounder. By signing Machado and going over the final threshold, your 1st rounder will be 10 spots back. You're losing 10 spots in the draft including the slot allotment, 2 other draft picks one being a second rounder, and the opportunity to spend $1.8 mil in the INTL realm (you can trade for up to 80% of your allotment). That is an absolute season killer in terms of bringing in talent

 

blah blah blah - The trade for Machado of course is likely not to happen but your responses expose a typical Yankee fan fear. It is unlikely but with DD you know that it could and boy would those two signings alter the balance of power.

[S5Dewey]

If Price opts out, then you wont want him to. The only way he opts out is if he has a CY quality 2018

 

...which is why giving Price that contract was a bad idea to begin with.

 

I know it's now easy to say that we had to have him and he had us over a barrel, but in retrospect how much worse would this team have been without him? In 2016 he won 17 games with an ERA of ~4.00 in the regular season and ~13.5 in the post season. The best thing that can be said about Price is that he continually proves that "once you get to the playoffs anything can happen". Repeatedly, sometimes.

 

In in 2017 we got

 

For $30MM, I expect more.

[Bellhorn04]

When you don't have any pitching you have to get it from trades or free agency. Dombrowski did both and has been lambasted in some quarters for virtually every big-ticket move.

[Bellhorn04]

Scherzer would have been a better acquisition, obviously. Have to blame Henry on that one, I think.

[S5Dewey]

I couldn't believe Dave got snookered into this contract at the time. It guaranteed that Price would be one of the highest paid pitchers in the league for the first three years, almost guaranteed that he'd leave after three years if he was pitching well, and guaranteed that we'd be paying him $30MM/year if he was pitching poorly. Would you want that guy negotiating YOUR divorce??

 

Who knows? Maybe JDM is holding out for a contract like this, thinking Dave will make the same mistake twice.

 

Reminder to Dave: Just say NO to long term expensive contracts with an opt out clause only for the player.

[Jack Flap]

The QO penalties are certainly harsh, which is one of the reasons I wanted to stay away from Hosmer and prioritize Martinez...however, if you have the opportunity to add a superstar talent like Machado or Harper, I think you take the hit and don't look back. Guys that good and that young don't come available very often.

[notin]

I couldn't believe Dave got snookered into this contract at the time. It guaranteed that Price would be one of the highest paid pitchers in the league for the first three years, almost guaranteed that he'd leave after three years if he was pitching well, and guaranteed that we'd be paying him $30MM/year if he was pitching poorly. Would you want that guy negotiating YOUR divorce??

 

Who knows? Maybe JDM is holding out for a contract like this, thinking Dave will make the same mistake twice.

 

Reminder to Dave: Just say NO to long term expensive contracts with an opt out clause only for the player.

 

I would disagree. The opt out clause helps teams immensely. I'd rather see Price give the Sox three good, well-paid years and then move on rather than aging poorly and spending his last year or two as a financial sinkhole that limits the Sox from making moves and retaining younger players. Any deal over 5 years for a player 30 or over without an opt-out clause is a huge mistake, IMO.

[notin]

Slav, if you sign Machado, you lose $1 mil in INTL funds, which also drops how much you can trade for btw. You also lose a 2nd and 5th rounder. By signing Machado and going over the final threshold, your 1st rounder will be 10 spots back. You're losing 10 spots in the draft including the slot allotment, 2 other draft picks one being a second rounder, and the opportunity to spend $1.8 mil in the INTL realm (you can trade for up to 80% of your allotment). That is an absolute season killer in terms of bringing in talent

 

All of this is only true if Machado finishes 2018 with the Orioles or whatever team acquires him before the season starts.

 

If the extremely likely situation where no team meets Baltimore's pre-season demands are not meet and he isn't traded happens, he probably gets dealt in July and there will be no qualifying offer.

 

The biggest flaw in the QO system is the lack of compensation for teams that lose free agents, which will make Baltimore a motivated seller at the deadline. ..

[Spudboy]

Cafardo was on Comcast last night and stated that he had several conversations with Douquette recently. He says tha Duke is very willing to trade within the division to the Sox or Yanks or anyone who offers enough.

[Jack Flap]

I would disagree. The opt out clause helps teams immensely. I'd rather see Price give the Sox three good, well-paid years and then move on rather than aging poorly and spending his last year or two as a financial sinkhole that limits the Sox from making moves and retaining younger players. Any deal over 5 years for a player 30 or over without an opt-out clause is a huge mistake, IMO.

 

I'm with you... I've never agreed with the premise that the opt-out is only good for the player. Even if Price had three healthy, Cy Young caliber years in Boston, I'd still happily let him walk and let someone else overpay for his mid and late 30's, knowing we got what was likely the best part of the original deal at a reasonable price and could then spend that $30 million on younger players.

 

I'd probably never offer a long-term contract without one.

[Jack Flap]

Cafardo was on Comcast last night and stated that he had several conversations with Douquette recently. He says tha Duke is very willing to trade within the division to the Sox or Yanks or anyone who offers enough.

 

If NY or Boston makes the best offer, he'd be stupid not to. It's only one year, and it's not like the O's are planning on contending, obviously.

[Elktonnick]

Cafardo was on Comcast last night and stated that he had several conversations with Douquette recently. He says tha Duke is very willing to trade within the division to the Sox or Yanks or anyone who offers enough.

 

Douquette may be willing but the notorious mercurial Orioles owner Peter Angelos has repeatedly over ruled his baseball operations minions throughout the years. The key words in Douquette's statement is to anyone who offers "enough". Given Angelos's reputation "enough" is likely to be exorbitant. I believe any deal for Machado would fall in the category of the "juice not being worth the squeeze."

[harmony]

If Eric Hosmer has a seven-year, $147 million offer from the Kansas City Royals, as reported:

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/01/03/eric-hosmer-offered-seven-year-147-million-deal-return-royals/998796001/

 

... I suspect J.D. Martinez will get better offers.

 

The loser of the apparent Hosmer bidding contest between the Royals and the Padres may turn their attention to Martinez.