2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[harmony]

The San Francisco Giants reportedly are in the market for an outfielder.

 

If the Red Sox signed J.D. Martinez or traded for Giancarlo Stanton, would anyone trade three years of Jackie Bradley Jr. for the four years and $64 million remaining on the contract of first baseman Brandon Belt?

 

Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 3.0 for Bradley and 2.8 for Belt. Bradley has posted 9.8 fWAR over the last three seasons, including 2.3 fWAR this year, while Belt has posted 10.7 fWAR over the last three years, including 2.3 fWAR this year.

 

Bradley, who is two years younger than Belt, has a projected 2018 salary of $5.9 million.

 

The contract for Belt, who has a limited no-trade clause, has an AAV of about $14.5 million for luxury tax purposes.

 

Would the Giants do the trade in light of Belt's additional year of team control? Is Buster Posey positioned to transition more to first base?

[moonslav59]

The San Francisco Giants reportedly are in the market for an outfielder.

 

If the Red Sox signed J.D. Martinez or traded for Giancarlo Stanton, would anyone trade three years of Jackie Bradley Jr. for the four years and $64 million remaining on the contract of first baseman Brandon Belt?

 

Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 3.0 for Bradley and 2.8 for Belt. Bradley has posted 9.8 fWAR over the last three seasons, including 2.3 fWAR this year, while Belt has posted 10.7 fWAR over the last three years, including 2.3 fWAR this year.

 

Bradley, who is two years younger than Belt, has a projected 2018 salary of $5.9 million.

 

The contract for Belt, who has a limited no-trade clause, has an AAV of about $14.5 million for luxury tax purposes.

 

Would the Giants do the trade in light of Belt's additional year of team control? Is Buster Posey positioned to transition more to first base?

 

$14.6M a year luxury tax hit is not bad, I'd consider it, in that scenario.

[notin]

Belt and Bradley match up nicely talent wise.

 

But Belt's contract coupled with his history of concussions should be a deal breaker...

[harmony]

Chicago-based columnist Phil Rogers explores a potential Jose Abreu trade with the Red Sox:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/262619622/will-white-sox-trade-jose-abreu-to-red-sox/

[notin]

Chicago-based columnist Phil Rogers explores a potential Jose Abreu trade with the Red Sox:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/262619622/will-white-sox-trade-jose-abreu-to-red-sox/

 

So he thinks Bradley is a bad idea despite the likelihood of many parts of the rebuild being in place next year, but also seems to think Brentz, Beeks, Lin and Travis are intriguing pieces for the White Sox?

[moonslav59]

So he thinks Bradley is a bad idea despite the likelihood of many parts of the rebuild being in place next year, but also seems to think Brentz, Beeks, Lin and Travis are intriguing pieces for the White Sox?

 

Maybe because they have many more years of team control, but that's not close to getting a deal like this done.

 

They might take ERod and Travis.

[harmony]

WEEI columnist Rob Bradford examines the Red Sox trade bait:

 

http://www.weei.com/articles/bradford-big-trades-wont-be-easy-these-red-sox

[moonslav59]

WEEI columnist Rob Bradford examines the Red Sox trade bait:

 

http://www.weei.com/articles/bradford-big-trades-wont-be-easy-these-red-sox

 

"The Red Sox simply are running out of top prospects to trade. That's not just hyperbole. That's a fact. Some phone calls to general managers around the majors confirm that. "

[cp176]

Pomeranz, Kimbrel, Sale - anyone else that i might have missed? Could have kept those guys we gave up so that we could have traded them one hitter this year I guess. Nah - I'm ok with it. Can't get something for nothing these days. Anyone we have who plays on a day to day basis other than Betts would be fair game as far as I am concerned. If we had not had Pomeranz, Kimbrel, and Sale we very likely would have had a couple of mediocre years at best. Wouldn't have liked that. In my opinion this team is loaded with prospects, they just happen to be playing at the ml level currently.

[moonslav59]

Pomeranz, Kimbrel, Sale - anyone else that i might have missed? Could have kept those guys we gave up so that we could have traded them one hitter this year I guess. Nah - I'm ok with it. Can't get something for nothing these days. Anyone we have who plays on a day to day basis other than Betts would be fair game as far as I am concerned. If we had not had Pomeranz, Kimbrel, and Sale we very likely would have had a couple of mediocre years at best. Wouldn't have liked that. In my opinion this team is loaded with prospects, they just happen to be playing at the ml level currently.

 

Yes, for 2-3 more team-controlled years.

Edited December 1, 2017 by moonslav59

[cp176]

Yes, for 2-3 more tem-controlled years.

 

hmm - ok - I think that I disagree with you just because I like to win every year.

[harmony]

"The Red Sox simply are running out of top prospects to trade. That's not just hyperbole. That's a fact. Some phone calls to general managers around the majors confirm that. "

I generally share that opinion ... but it's an opinion, not a fact.

[jacksonianmarch]

So the sox are out of top prospects and view the best of their system akin to the prior top prospects. Sounds like an optics issue.

[cp176]

So the sox are out of top prospects and view the best of their system akin to the prior top prospects. Sounds like an optics issue.

 

oh s*** no way. Those guys we traded don't compare at all to our current prospects playing at the ml level.

[moonslav59]

hmm - ok - I think that I disagree with you just because I like to win every year.

 

How condescending! LOL!

 

We both love to win every year. That's a fact.

 

Hope we're both still around in 3-4 years, and you can take me to the wood shed.

[moonslav59]

I generally share that opinion ... but it's an opinion, not a fact.

 

Agreed, but the part about some GMs confirning it adds some weight to the "opinion".

[harmony]

Agreed, but the part about some GMs confirning it adds some weight to the "opinion".

When I was a journalism professor I was disappointed that some incoming students struggled to distinguish an opinion from a verifiable fact.

 

I was impressed when my daughters, who are now in college, were taught the difference in a third-grade lesson.

[moonslav59]

When I was a journalism professor I was disappointed that some incoming students struggled to distinguish an opinion from a verifiable fact.

 

I was impressed when my daughters, who are now in college, were taught the difference in a third-grade lesson.

 

True enough, and all it takes is for one GM's "opinion" to be different to make the position not a fact.

 

Strangely, however, if 30 "opinons" all concur, an opinion can become a fact.

[notin]

Really all they have is Groome and Chavis...

[notin]

Of course they could use some MLB talent to either trade or to get actual trade bait.

 

Kimbrel leaps to mind. The Sox have other experienced closers (Smith, Thornburg). Kimbrel only has one year left anyway.

 

And if two months of Aroldis Chapman is worth Gleyber Torres, Billy McMillan, Adam Warren and more, what is a full year of Kimbrel worth?

 

I'm talking to you, Jeff Luhnow...

[notin]

Agreed, but the part about some GMs confirning it adds some weight to the "opinion".

 

Especially since they have the only opinions that matter in this case...

[harmony]

Of course they could use some MLB talent to either trade or to get actual trade bait.

 

Kimbrel leaps to mind. The Sox have other experienced closers (Smith, Thornburg). Kimbrel only has one year left anyway.

 

And if two months of Aroldis Chapman is worth Gleyber Torres, Billy McMillan, Adam Warren and more, what is a full year of Kimbrel worth?

 

I'm talking to you, Jeff Luhnow...

Carson Smith converted only 13 of 18 save opportunities before losing his short-lived closer's role on a Seattle team that lost 86 games.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=smithca02&t=p&year=2015

[a700hitter]

lol - good one - i think that i have figured it out. If we did absolutely nothing as a franchise for the next couple of years. Held a pat hand - made absolutely no moves what so ever - it would be likely that we might face this mythical cliff referred to. I think that i finally get it. Now i am starting to worry.

The above post is meant to be humorous and not condescending in any way - just laugh -

lol!!

[cp176]

How condescending! LOL!

 

We both love to win every year. That's a fact.

 

Hope we're both still around in 3-4 years, and you can take me to the wood shed.

 

Got me! I told you I could be like that. lol

[Bellhorn04]

Carson Smith converted only 13 of 18 save opportunities before losing his short-lived closer's role on a Seattle team that lost 86 games.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=smithca02&t=p&year=2015

 

But he also had 22 Holds. So he was 35 of 40 in Hold/Save opportunities.

 

Do you think he's a guy who can set up but not close?

 

Do you think some guys don't like the pressure of being the closer?

 

Let's have some opinions, not just facts!

[harmony]

But he also had 22 Holds. So he was 35 of 40 in Hold/Save opportunities.

 

Do you think he's a guy who can set up but not close?

 

Do you think some guys don't like the pressure of being the closer?

 

Let's have some opinions, not just facts!

Opinion 1: Carson Smith had an impressive 2015 season

Opinion 2: Carson Smith is not an experienced closer

 

Fact 1: Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project Carson Smith with a 2018 ERA of 3.81 in 65 innings:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13172&position=P

 

The fact is that Steamer and FanGraphs make that projection, not that the projections will ultimately be proven to be accurate.

 

[notin]

Big deal. Make Smith Plan C behind free agent Bryan Shaw and Tyler Thornburg. ..

[moonslav59]

Of course they could use some MLB talent to either trade or to get actual trade bait.

 

Kimbrel leaps to mind. The Sox have other experienced closers (Smith, Thornburg). Kimbrel only has one year left anyway.

 

And if two months of Aroldis Chapman is worth Gleyber Torres, Billy McMillan, Adam Warren and more, what is a full year of Kimbrel worth?

 

I'm talking to you, Jeff Luhnow...

 

While I agree we have no big blue chip prospects to trade for someone like Verlander and JD martinez from this year's summer dealings, we did make these trades this year:

 

Eduardo Nunez for Shaun Anderson and Gregory Santos

 

Addison Reed for Gerson Bautista, Stephen Nogosek & Jamie Callahan

 

Rajai Davis for Rafael Rincones

 

 

We certainly can make deals like this next summer, if needed.

[moonslav59]

2015 Carson Smith * Small sample size alert

 

OPS Against .539 (.519 career)

 

.572 Late & Close (.536 career)

.408 2 outs RISP (.405 career)

.625 High Leverage (.603 career)

 

.505 vs RHBs (.516 career)

.582 vs LHBs (.522 career)

 

It should be noted that Smith's numbers outside of 2015 are actually better.

 

[moonslav59]

Big deal. Make Smith Plan C behind free agent Bryan Shaw and Tyler Thornburg. ..

 

Thornburg may not come back until mid season, if ever.