2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[moonslav59]

Did the cliff just move back from 2020 to 2021???? Does that mean it could move back to 2022 and then 2023 and then.....???

 

I've always said I felt we probably could remain competitive for 2020, if we set up the tax so we can go over by $39M that year.

 

I think Kimmi says it starts in 2020.

 

To me, the "cliff" means we will not be favorites to make the playoffs for a couple years or so. It does not mean last place for 2-3 years in a row.

[moonslav59]

The prospects were used to fix the underlying problem with the system that Theo and Ben had. THEY COULDN'T DEVELOP PITCHING.

 

I'm not doubting that, and signing Price went a long way to fixing that problem as well.

 

My point is, the farm will not be as strong as when DD took over, so trading for guys like Sale and Pom isn't going to happen with scraps on the farm.

[mvp 78]

Here's a move that will get things popping on TS!!!!

 

@Buster_ESPN

 

Some rival evaluators believe the Red Sox and Astros may be best positioned in the discussions for free agent reliever Mike Minor. Both teams have a need for a lefty.

[mvp 78]

I'm not doubting that, and signing Price went a long way to fixing that problem as well.

 

My point is, the farm will not be as strong as when DD took over, so trading for guys like Sale and Pom isn't going to happen with scraps on the farm.

 

The farm can't really be that strong if it doesn't have any pitching. You can't have a 25 man roster with 20 positional players.

[a700hitter]

I'm really looking forward to talking about a cliff for everyday until this site closes. It makes me very appreciated of April 2016 when we had nothing every to talk about before then. Someday, we'll talk in TalkSox terms that 2015 was 1 year BC (Before Cliff). We are now 1 year AD (After Deluge of cliff posts).

it is tiresome. I almost pine for the day’s when Dutchy returned under a new identity on a weekly basis. This is like living with that cult that I used to see at Penn Station every morning that screamed that the world would end on New Year’s Eve and after every New Year they pushed the rapture back a year.

[moonslav59]

Sandoval and Hanley's contracts will come off the books. JBJ is not a $20M player as projected. Xander is not a $20M player as projected. They can sign anyone they want to. Kimbrel and Sale and Pomeranz can all be replaced by future signings or trades. Sale and Pomeranz may not be long term options anyway (health).

 

Where's the "supporting" evidence we can do this?

 

To replace a top starter and closer and a strong number two will cost a fortune on the FA market, and we're probably not getting the next Chris Sale for Quiroz, Groome and Ockimey.

 

Even if Bogey I JBJ cost $15M each, we're looking at...

 

$31M Price

$25M Betts

$15M Bogey

$15M JBJ

___ Ace

___ Closer

___ #2-3 starter

 

This alone will look to be close to $140-150M, unless we get lucky on a trade or our system finally develops a SP'er (like Groome) to be a solid #2-3 type.

 

We had little faith in Kopech and Espinoza, why should we not have faith in Groome, Houck or Beeks?

[mvp 78]

it is tiresome. I almost pine for the day’s when Dutchy returned under a new identity on a weekly basis. This is like living with that cult that I used to see at Penn Station every morning that screamed that the world would end on New Year’s Eve and after every New Year they pushed the rapture back a year.

 

That's a much better analogy than a post I was going to make. Kudos.

[moonslav59]

The farm can't really be that strong if it doesn't have any pitching. You can't have a 25 man roster with 20 positional players.

 

As you pointed out, a strong positional player farm can be used to trade for top pitching like Sale, Kimbrel and Pomeranz, but where are those prospects now in our system that can net us close to those returns, when we need more strong pitching?

[mvp 78]

Where's the "supporting" evidence we can do this?

 

To replace a top starter and closer and a strong number two will cost a fortune on the FA market, and we're probably not getting the next Chris Sale for Quiroz, Groome and Ockimey.

 

Even if Bogey I JBJ cost $15M each, we're looking at...

 

$31M Price

$25M Betts

$15M Bogey

$15M JBJ

___ Ace

___ Closer

___ #2-3 starter

 

This alone will look to be close to $140-150M, unless we get lucky on a trade or our system finally develops a SP'er (like Groome) to be a solid #2-3 type.

 

We had little faith in Kopech and Espinoza, why should we not have faith in Groome, Houck or Beeks?

 

Trade for the next Pomeranz while he's still cheap. Re-sign Sale or trade for the next Sale? FA Sale's don't come around very often (except for Max Scherzer sp?). I like Beeks as a 4-5, not a 2. Groome is a question mark that may never pan out. Houck is too far away right now. Closers are easy to get.

[mvp 78]

As you pointed out, a strong positional player farm can be used to trade for top pitching like Sale, Kimbrel and Pomeranz, but where are those prospects now in our system that can net us close to those returns, when we need more strong pitching?

 

Chavis, Ockimey, Brannen, Travis, Dalbec et al could continue to develop. After 2012, Mookie Betts wasn't a top 20 Sox Prospect. Things happen.

[Nick]

For many of us, Devers came out of nowhere. We knew something was up when there were rumors to the effect that Moncada was expendable because we had someone better at 3B. All the sudden, we have 11 controllable years from Beni and Devers. Thats' how quickly things work out. Free agent signings this fall will say much about Sox thinking on Sam Travis. Has his value dropped THAT much? Or is it still related to after affects of injury sustained two springs ago?

 

As mvp78 pointed out, it won't cost us $30M x 3 to sign Xander, JBJ and Betts. I'm not sure I'd give Xander a $20M contract. He is not worth that money as of today.

 

Cliff is a moving target. I know one thing. With $200M+ annual budget, we are better equipped to deal with it than majority of teams.

Edited November 30, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Chavis, Ockimey, Brannen, Travis, Dalbec et al could continue to develop. After 2012, Mookie Betts wasn't a top 20 Sox Prospect. Things happen.

 

Dalbec and Travis seemed to regress this year.

 

None of these guys compare to the value Margot, Moncada, Kopech, Dubon, Basabe and others had for those trades DD made.

 

Sure, some may rise like Betts did, but that is rare. I'm talking the odds of things happening not wishful thinking.

 

I find it strange I was bashed for wishful thinking on Espinoza and margot, but now I'm being asked to be optimistic about Groome and ockimey.

[moonslav59]

Trade for the next Pomeranz while he's still cheap. Re-sign Sale or trade for the next Sale? FA Sale's don't come around very often (except for Max Scherzer sp?). I like Beeks as a 4-5, not a 2. Groome is a question mark that may never pan out. Houck is too far away right now. Closers are easy to get.

 

Could we get the next Pom for Groome? Is he higher valued than Espi?

 

Resigning Sale will cost $30+M.

[Slasher9]

I am confident that the people posting here really don't know what will ultimately happen.

 

what if i told you that there is a poster that is on the FO payroll?

[a700hitter]

what if i told you that there is a poster that is on the FO payroll?

Shush.

[Slasher9]

I think we're all capable of understanding the cliff without having it explained to us over and over. Are we supposed to be a bunch of f***ing half-wits or something?

 

Post Of the Mother Effing Day!

[Nick]

After 2018

Kimbrel $13M

Pomeranz ??????

Kelly ?????

After 2019

Sale $13.5M

Hanley $22M

Sandoval $19M

Porcello $20.6M

Xander ??????

After 2020

Betts ????

JBJ ??????

Vazquez ?????

C Smith ??????

After 2021

Pedroia $13.75M

E Rod ?????

After 2022

Price $31M

Beni ???

After 2023

Devers

 

Biggest gut check time will be after 2019 season. With all the experts on this board, and I mean that sincerely, we can push back the cliff.

 

Anyone remember the movie Disclosure with Michael Douglass? I suggest we nominate Moon or Kimmie to be the 'A Friend' and send DD board's consensus on what the Sox need to do to stay relevant beyond 2020.

Edited November 30, 2017 by Nick

[Slasher9]

I'm really looking forward to talking about a cliff for everyday until this site closes. It makes me very appreciated of April 2016 when we had nothing every to talk about before then. Someday, we'll talk in TalkSox terms that 2015 was 1 year BC (Before Cliff). We are now 1 year AD (After Deluge of cliff posts).

 

funny. but hurtful.

[Slasher9]

I'm really not one of those last word kind of guys but oh well:

 

P-1 - I think that most of us think about but don't necessarily worry about what the future might hold for the team we cheer for. Suggesting that we don't or that we don't understand how trading anyone might affect a team negatively is condescending.

 

P-2 - Most of us probably realize the value in having a plan it just isn't something that some of us see as worthy to obsess over.

 

P-3 - I realize that I can be condescending ordinarily though it is about one of the few the things that I consider myself to be an expert in. One of which is not how to run a ml baseball franchise. Just a fan here.

 

P-4 - I truly respect the opinion of every poster here even the ones who never agree with me. But what the hell I am a believer that when it comes to this stuff and most other things as well, there is never one right or wrong answer.

 

I dont always agree with you.....but you are definitely "must read" poster IMO.

[a700hitter]

Roger Goodell is still waiting for the Patriots to hit the cliff, which is overdue by 5 years. They have made a mockery of his parity plan.

[mvp 78]

Dalbec and Travis seemed to regress this year.

 

None of these guys compare to the value Margot, Moncada, Kopech, Dubon, Basabe and others had for those trades DD made.

 

Sure, some may rise like Betts did, but that is rare. I'm talking the odds of things happening not wishful thinking.

 

I find it strange I was bashed for wishful thinking on Espinoza and margot, but now I'm being asked to be optimistic about Groome and ockimey.

 

They don't have the same value as Dubon or Basabe? Really?

[mvp 78]

funny. but hurtful.

 

Were there this many cliff posts over in the bad place?

[mvp 78]

Roger Goodell is still waiting for the Patriots to hit the cliff, which is overdue by 5 years. They have made a mockery of his parity plan.

 

Any day now.

 

Thankfully, avocado ice cream exists.

[Slasher9]

Roger Goodell is still waiting for the Patriots to hit the cliff, which is overdue by 5 years. They have made a mockery of his parity plan.

 

apparently banging Giselle is the fountain of youth....

[harmony]

They don't have the same value as Dubon or Basabe? Really?

The MLB Prospect Watch scouting grades and the FanGraphs future value scores:

 

45/40 Bobby Dalbec

50/45 Sam Travis

45/40 Luis Alexander Basabe

50/45 Mauricio Dubon

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=bos

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16263&position=1B

[cp176]

what if i told you that there is a poster that is on the FO payroll?

 

Don't you go messing with me - could screw up my nap! lol

[cp176]

Sandoval and Hanley's contracts will come off the books. JBJ is not a $20M player as projected. Xander is not a $20M player as projected. They can sign anyone they want to. Kimbrel and Sale and Pomeranz can all be replaced by future signings or trades. Sale and Pomeranz may not be long term options anyway (health).

 

This is a post by someone who might know something about baseball. Try as I might, I can't conjure up my worry gnads to even think that I would be bothered if we were unable to sign any of the listed players. Probably I would like to see Sale stay and probably I would make the big play to keep Betts but as for the rest of the boys. Would not panic over losing any of them.

[cp176]

it is tiresome. I almost pine for the day’s when Dutchy returned under a new identity on a weekly basis. This is like living with that cult that I used to see at Penn Station every morning that screamed that the world would end on New Year’s Eve and after every New Year they pushed the rapture back a year.

 

lol - good one - I think that I have figured it out. If we did absolutely nothing as a franchise for the next couple of years. Held a pat hand - made absolutely no moves what so ever - It would be likely that we might face this mythical cliff referred to. I think that I finally get it. Now I am starting to worry.

the above post is meant to be humorous and not condescending in any way - just laugh -

[moonslav59]

After 2018

Kimbrel $13M

Pomeranz ??????

Kelly ?????

After 2019

Sale $13.5M

Hanley $22M

Sandoval $19M

Porcello $20.6M

Xander ??????

After 2020

Betts ????

JBJ ??????

Vazquez ?????

C Smith ??????

After 2021

Pedroia $13.75M

E Rod ?????

After 2022

Price $31M

Beni ???

After 2023

Devers

 

Biggest gut check time will be after 2019 season. With all the experts on this board, and I mean that sincerely, we can push back the cliff.

 

Anyone remember the movie Disclosure with Michael Douglass? I suggest we nominate Moon or Kimmie to be the 'A Friend' and send DD board's consensus on what the Sox need to do to stay relevant beyond 2020.

 

I think we can push the cliff back to 2021 as well, assuming we're set up to spend big in 2020. I guess we could spend large for consecutive years, but that would take a philosophy change by Henry that I'm guessing will not occur.

 

Paying big taxes one year is one thing, but paying even bigger taxes (plus maybe other penalties) for the second or third year is asking for a major commitment.

[moonslav59]

They don't have the same value as Dubon or Basabe? Really?

 

Dalbec and Travis? Probably not, but it took other better prospects included to get Sale, Kimbrel and Thornburg.