2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Bellhorn04]

Martinez is a red herring if the question is about upgrading 1B. We reset the cap penalty, so we can probably afford Martinez and a good 1B if we really wanted to.

 

It's not exactly a red herring if we assume that signing both JDM and Hosmer would put us in cap hell again.

[jacksonianmarch]

You aren't signing both. I know MLBTR had you guys signing Morrison, but I don't see that fit. I see Duda signed to platoon at DH and eat up some AB's at 1b. I see JD starting when he is healthy and flipping between 1B and DH as well. A duda investment increases your power, guarantees no option vesting for Hanley and keeps you out of trouble with the union.

[OH FOY]

Sox have to think Pitching too, E-Rod had another surgery to his knee. Problem now is you cannot move him, which the Sox should have done this Off-Season, as part of a package. His knee problems are habitual, seem they follow him throughout career.

[jacksonianmarch]

His subluxation issue should be mostly fixed although sometimes the surgery fails. The question for him is when or if he regains the strength. It’s a pretty major leg surgery and something that may not get back to being entirely normal until 2019

[moonslav59]

I don't want to throw stones at Mike Moustakas. He's a great player, a very good third baseman and a strong hitter. But the man has only had 2 years of solid WAR production in his entire life by fWAR, and only one by bWAR. Even with the weak 2016 performance Hosmer has been WAY more consistent in his career than Moustakas offensively.

 

Again, I love the idea of signing Moustakas, but if the idea is to upgrade the offense first and foremost, Moustakas is the lesser upgrade. Moustakas only ever had one year with a higher OPS+ than Hosmer, and that was his injury-stunted 2016 campaign.

 

You make some great points, but to me, there are too many aspects of their signings that point to Moose being the better pick. Assuming MLBTR projections are in the ball park, here's what I see:

 

1) Moose with 5 yrs vs 6 for Hoze.

2) Moose with $85M vs $132M for Hoze[.

3) Moose at 3B & Devers at 1B is a much better defense than Devers at 3B and Hoze at 1B.

 

I'm still not convinced on the offense, as our biggest need is power (look at the ISO differential) and not necessarily the OBP, which is normally viewed as much more important. I'm not downplaying OBP. I still think it'e more important than SLG%, but our need for a solid clean-up hitter is very significant, and when viewed as who is the better clean-up hitter, the choice is a lot closer. (Personally, I'd take Moose in this role over Hoze.)

 

Also, with players in their prime, like both are, I tend to pay much more attention to the player's last 2-3 seasons and not earlier one. Hosmer has much better numbers 4+ years ago, and I'm hesitant to choose him over Moose due to what both did 4-6+ years ago. The numbers are very close from 2015-2017. One good thing about looking their stats is that they played on the same team, in the same park and basically faced the same pitchers.

 

Stat Moose Hoze

WAR 6.6 7.3

wRC+ 118 120

OPS .824 .822

OBP .359 .329

(The above numbers favor Hoze slightly, but our great need for power, might be enough to tip the balance towards Moose)

 

Stat Moose Hoze

ISO .221 .169 (a massive .052 differential)

SLG .496 .463 (about the same differential as OBP)

 

others...

BAbip .273 .330 (Is this differential sustainable?)

K% 13.8 17.2

 

D. R. S. -3 -12

UXR/150 + 5.3 -42.3 (OUCH!!!!)

 

I still see Moose as the overall better choice, even before looking at the money and years. If MLBTR is close with their projected salaries, Moose is my clear choice by a wide margin.

 

I'd still rather get JD or Stanton, despite their longer and more costly deals. We made the bed with the 3-4 year window and we're now down to 2-3 years. We can't change strategies mid stream and end up with worst of both worlds: No rings and a bleak(er) future outlook.

[moonslav59]

You aren't signing both. I know MLBTR had you guys signing Morrison, but I don't see that fit. I see Duda signed to platoon at DH and eat up some AB's at 1b. I see JD starting when he is healthy and flipping between 1B and DH as well. A duda investment increases your power, guarantees no option vesting for Hanley and keeps you out of trouble with the union.

 

If we are over the luxury limit, I'm not sure signing two big names is out of the question.

 

I've mentioned Duda several times. He sucks on D but has great ISO numbers. At $6M/1, he's a great signing compared to Hosmer, Santana or Morrison.

 

I could see us get JD, Duda and Shaw or Moose, Duda and Shaw. We might sign a mid level pitcher, if we don't sign JD and another big named 1B/3Bman (Cobb, Lynn, Holland...).

[Dojji]

No interest whatsoever in Lucas Duda. Check his WAR numbers. Over the last 2 years Duda has been good for 0.1 and 1.1 WAR, the dude is pure fools gold at this point. I might bring him in as a DH or as a bench hitter, but his actual value is nowhere NEAR what the offensive numbers suggest it is Edited November 4, 2017 by Dojji

[jacksonianmarch]

And your current DH was worse. Get Duda for a bat only. Move JD to 1b. Hanley becomes a platoon DH

[Dojji]

We learned the hard way that not everyone can transition to first base when we tried to get Hanley to do it.

[OH FOY]

Rather have Machado than Moustakas, I'll wait, see how Devers handles 3rd, save the money, and go after a real stud in 1 year. He'll be a beast in Fenway. Edited November 4, 2017 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

Other team needs, Moustakas 17 million this year could be used in other areas. Good Left Handed Reliever, Utility Man (2nd baseman), even Starter might be a need, 4th Outfielder. Sox might go with Wright, so that might not be a issue.

[notin]

You aren't signing both. I know MLBTR had you guys signing Morrison, but I don't see that fit. I see Duda signed to platoon at DH and eat up some AB's at 1b. I see JD starting when he is healthy and flipping between 1B and DH as well. A duda investment increases your power, guarantees no option vesting for Hanley and keeps you out of trouble with the union.

 

Its a contest. MLBTR is hoping to be correct on one of them...

[Spudboy]

We learned the hard way that not everyone can transition to first base when we tried to get Hanley to do it.

 

I don't get this remark at all.

 

Now I'm not the biggest of Hanley fans but I think he did a pretty good job at 1st in 2016. He was far better that I had expected and he was not a defensive liability.

 

Of course I have not looked at his defensive metrics so I bet someone could easily Cherie pick a stat to argue my observation.

[moonslav59]

And your current DH was worse. Get Duda for a bat only. Move JD to 1b. Hanley becomes a platoon DH

 

Duda on a 1 year deal gives him incentive to have a big year.

 

If we get JD and let him play 1B when an OF'er is not resting, Duda could probably play 30 games at 1B and 80+ at DH....more if HRam flames out. If there's an OF or 1B njury, Duda plays FT.

[moonslav59]

Rather have Machado than Moustakas, I'll wait, see how Devers handles 3rd, save the money, and go after a real stud in 1 year. He'll be a beast in Fenway.

 

I have no problem letting Devers stay at 3B to see how much he can improve, but we should not expect him to be anywhere near plus by the end of 2018. The learning curve could hurt our chances the next 2 years.

Edited November 4, 2017 by moonslav59

[OH FOY]

So under the new rules, you sign a player with Qualifying Offer, you lose your second highest Draft pick and $500,000 of your allotment in the International Pool money. That's significant.

Team like the Sox who are trying to rebuild you better think twice on QO's guys.

That's why Martinez is better idea, with Trades, or guys that cant have QO's. Nunez is one that comes to mind, that would help the club now, and wont hurt the future.

Edited November 5, 2017 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

So under the new rules, you sign a player with Qualifying Offer, you lose your second highest Draft pick and $500,000 of your allotment in the International Pool money. That's significant.

Team like the Sox who are trying to rebuild you better think twice on QO's guys.

That's why Martinez is better idea, with Trades, or guys that cant have QO's. Nunez is one that comes to mind, that would help the club now, and wont hurt the future.

 

It's more than that for us...

 

If the signing team paid the luxury tax in the previous season, the team gives up its second-highest and fifth-highest draft picks and $1MM of international bonus pool money in the next int’l signing period (which opens on July 2).

 

One reason to trade for Stanton or sign JD who is not a QO free agent.

[OH FOY]

WOW! Thanks.

[moonslav59]

WOW! Thanks.

 

JD Martinez is not a QO free agent.

 

I don't think Santana is either.

 

The Sox reportedly asked about Darvish last deadline. He's not a QO guy ether.

[harmony]

JD Martinez is not a QO free agent.

 

I don't think Santana is either.

 

The Sox reportedly asked about Darvish last deadline. He's not a QO guy ether.

A Cleveland Plain Dealer reporter expects Carlos Santana to receive a qualifying offer:

 

http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/index.ssf/2017/10/cleveland_indians_free_agents.html#incart_river_index

[OH FOY]

Monday last day for QO's.

[notin]

So under the new rules, you sign a player with Qualifying Offer, you lose your second highest Draft pick and $500,000 of your allotment in the International Pool money. That's significant.

Team like the Sox who are trying to rebuild you better think twice on QO's guys.

That's why Martinez is better idea, with Trades, or guys that cant have QO's. Nunez is one that comes to mind, that would help the club now, and wont hurt the future.

 

Are the Sox trying to rebuild?

[notin]

A Cleveland Plain Dealer reporter expects Carlos Santana to receive a qualifying offer:

 

http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/index.ssf/2017/10/cleveland_indians_free_agents.html#incart_river_index

 

So do I. Also Hosmer and Moustakas...

[moonslav59]

A Cleveland Plain Dealer reporter expects Carlos Santana to receive a qualifying offer:

 

http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/index.ssf/2017/10/cleveland_indians_free_agents.html#incart_river_index

 

Hmmm.

 

He drops on my list, if he does.

 

MLBTR has him getting $45M/3, so it makes sense he'd get a QO.

 

Close call.

[moonslav59]

So do I. Also Hosmer and Moustakas...

 

Their saying Hosmer, Moustakas and Cain for the Royals.

[moonslav59]

Is Cozart a better choice than Santana, if the QO penalty for Carlos is in place?

 

MLBTR projects:

 

$45M/3 Santana

 

$42M/3 Cozart (move Bogey to 3B and devers to 1B? I know, that's a lot of moves for a marginal star.)

[jacksonianmarch]

Cozart is gonna be a tough case. Defense carried him in 2016. He had a career year offensively in 2017, which turns out to be his FA year. A 5 WAR player will get paid handsomely in this market, but this guy is a prime bust candidate. His career BABIP is .280 yet he was .312 last year. He nearly doubled his career walk rate. He had a 50% jump in HR over his previous career season. He also hasn’t had a full season since 2014 as he is injury prone.

[notin]

Their saying Hosmer, Moustakas and Cain for the Royals.

 

 

Ok but no Sox fans should have any reason to discuss Cain

[notin]

My thoughts on Sox needs.

 

1. 1b. I predict Hosmer but prefer Santana. Or Abreu if a trade can be worked out. I prefer the Sox don't break up the OF. Moustakas is an option, sliding Devers to first. But I doubt Dombrowski moves him. I do believe the QO will not be a deterrent to Dombrowski, since I don't think it ever has before.

 

2. 2b. Free agency has some mild options like Brandon Phillips and Howie Kendrick. Yollmer Sanchez is a terrific player who loses his job this year (and might be too pricey). There is a good chance Brad Miller is non-tendered. Internally, Marco Hernandez and (ugh!) Brock Holt are other options, ahead of Deven Marrero and Tzu-Weight Lin. And hey, maybe Josh Tobias (acquired for Clay Buchholz) can turn some heads. I do doubt anything expensive happens here.

 

3. SP. Wright likely rejoins the rotation. But hopefully Dombrowski brings in some depth better than Kyle Kendrick this off-season.

 

4. RP. I like the Bryan Shaw prediction. But regardless, DD needs to add a reliever to the disabled list. And also to possibly replace any trade bait. (Barnes? Hembree?)

[Kimmi]

I have no problem letting Devers stay at 3B to see how much he can improve, but we should not expect him to be anywhere near plus by the end of 2018. The learning curve could hurt our chances the next 2 years.

 

Agreed. Devers should not be moved yet just because he did not look that great defensively in his first season. He is still very young and could improve with the proper coaching. However, I would have no problem moving him to 1B for a significant upgrade at 3B, like Machado, not that I want Machado on my team.