2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[harmony]

And yet Bogaerts still ranked 45 on Fangraphs midseason trade value, unlike anyone else in that deal.

 

Of course, whatever prospects CWS and AD agree upon can change anyway

 

I would note that Xander Bogaerts’ midseason trade value ranking had dropped from No. 20 the previous year. I suspect the slide continues.

[moonslav59]

I would note that Xander Bogaerts’ midseason trade value ranking had dropped from No. 20 the previous year. I suspect the slide continues.

 

I thought WAR was your steady criteria.

 

Bogey placed 8th in SS WAR at +3.2.

 

He places 4th in 3 year SS WAR at + 12.4, behind only Lindor, Seager and Correo.

[notin]

I would note that Xander Bogaerts’ midseason trade value ranking had dropped from No. 20 the previous year. I suspect the slide continues.

 

Years of control is a big part of it, so it will slide unless he signs an extension. Even with more control Ketel Marte ( who was mentioned as a non-factor in that deal) can't seem to take charge in a volatile and unspectacular Arizona middle infield.

 

And really, Nick Ahmed to Boston instead would be just fine with me.

 

The Diamondbacks could drop in Socrates Brito or another player. The White Sox are the unpredictable team in that deal. Travis is a stopgap (like Marte) and they would want at least one good prospect.

 

But if the Snakes are getting Bogaerts, they should certainly give one up...

[Larry Cook]

If Rodriguez is going to miss the beginning of the season and price's elbow is hanging on by a thread, then desperate dave should look for two starters this offseason.

 

In my mind, we need to sign free agents ohtani and Alex Cobb!

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't think Otani is heading to Boston. Boston has less cap money than NY and there are a few teams with more money than NY in the running too. If he wanted to go young core and winning, he'd choose NY. If he wanted to go history, he'd go NY. If he wanted to follow in Tanaka and Matsui's footsteps, he'd go NY. If he is going pure cash, then he isn't coming to NY or Boston

 

As for Alex Cobb, he pitched well this year, but there are some very concerning stats that showed up in 2017. His last completely healthy season was actually 2014. He missed 2015 due to TJS and had an assortment of ailments in 2016 that limited him to 5 big league starts. Cobb's fastball has the exact same velocity and his walk rate has dropped a touch, but the good stuff stops there. His K rate plummeted 1.64K/9IP. His GB % dropped from 56-47%. His HR/FB ratio rose significantly from 8.5% to 13%. So all in all, you have a guy who walks a little less guys than he did previously (2.54 down to 2.21BB/9IP) who is allowing a lot more contact. That contact has thus far been far more in the air than on the ground. The contact in the air has left the park at a 53% higher rate than it did before. Cobb in Petco would be great. Cobb in Boston would be awful.

[Jack Flap]

Marrero would be fine.

 

Would he, though? This is the problem I have with most of these Stanton trade ideas...you'd be getting a big upgrade in one area but tearing open a hole in another (in this case, swapping a two-time Silver Slugger for a .200 hitter). You can't convince me we're a better team with Stanton and Marrero than with Martinez and Bogaerts.

[Jack Flap]

I'm not in any rush to give up on Bogaerts at this point, anyway. Yes, he's inconsistent and frustrating as hell, and he may never quite be what we thought he'd be in 2013, but he's had half-season stretches where he looks like a future batting champ and possesses raw power that remains mostly untapped (he did hit 21 HR as recently as a year ago). It's easy to forget how young he still is, having just turned 25 this month.

 

That's not to say I wouldn't consider any deal for him, but I think if you traded him this winter you'd likely be selling low. (Same with JBJ, to a lesser extent.)

[Jack Flap]

What was Xander's excuse 2nd half of 2015? What was ailing him then? Feelings?

 

Bogaerts hit .304/.338/.411 in the 1st half of 2015 and .337/.372/.431 in the 2nd half (which shatters the notion that he's somehow predestined to drop off later in the season), so I don't get this comment. Did you mean 2016?

 

Anyway, I'm done defending Xander's honor for now. Happy Friday, peeps.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not in any rush to give up on Bogaerts at this point, anyway. Yes, he's inconsistent and frustrating as hell, and he may never quite be what we thought he'd be in 2013, but he's had half-season stretches where he looks like a future batting champ and possesses raw power that remains mostly untapped (he did hit 21 HR as recently as a year ago). It's easy to forget how young he still is, having just turned 25 this month.

 

That's not to say I wouldn't consider any deal for him, but I think if you traded him this winter you'd likely be selling low. (Same with JBJ, to a lesser extent.)

 

With the right coaching Bogaerts could be a much better hitter, I think. He's shown flashes of excellence in all areas.

[Jack Flap]

With the right coaching Bogaerts could be a much better hitter, I think. He's shown flashes of excellence in all areas.

 

Agree. And while I like Chili Davis, I think it's a good time for a fresh approach this winter after watching virtually all of our young players aside from Vazquez and Devers underperform relative to expectations. It will be interesting to see who the new manager (presumably Cora at this point) brings with him to the coaching staff.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Otani is heading to Boston. Boston has less cap money than NY and there are a few teams with more money than NY in the running too...

 

I'm not doubting your statement, but where do you find the amount of money teams have in their international signing pool?

 

I know both the Sox and Yanks have made trades for additional pool money.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don’t have exact figures. The Yankees and Sox started with the same amount. The Yankees traded for the max. They also spent less than the sox to this point. So even if the sox matched the Yankees and traded for the max, they’ll have less available because they have spent more to this point

[harmony]

I thought WAR was your steady criteria.

 

Bogey placed 8th in SS WAR at +3.2.

 

He places 4th in 3 year SS WAR at + 12.4, behind only Lindor, Seager and Correo.

In terms of trade value years of team control play a significant role. Xander Bogaerts’ team control has dropped nearly 20 percent since the FanGraphs midseason trade value rankings.

 

We’re talking about two years of shortstop who this year dropped to eighth place in the fWAR rankings.

 

Bogaerts has trade value but is an unspectacular shortstop in a field that includes the younger Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa, as well as a converted former shortstop in Manny Machado, who is only a few months older. Addison Russell, who is 15 months younger, has been even less spectacular.

Edited October 20, 2017 by harmony

[notin]

Would he, though? This is the problem I have with most of these Stanton trade ideas...you'd be getting a big upgrade in one area but tearing open a hole in another (in this case, swapping a two-time Silver Slugger for a .200 hitter). You can't convince me we're a better team with Stanton and Marrero than with Martinez and Bogaerts.

 

That's a valid point. But it's also an alternative plan in the likely event Martinez re-signs with Arizona, where he has quickly become somewhat of a legend. ..

[notin]

In terms of trade value years of team control play a significant role. Xander Bogaerts’ team control has dropped nearly 20 percent since the FanGraphs midseason trade value rankings.

 

We’re talking about two years of shortstop who this year dropped to eighth place in the fWAR rankings.

 

Bogaerts has trade value but is an unspectacular shortstop in a field that includes the younger Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa, as well as a converted former shortstop in Manny Machado, who is only a few months older. Addison Russell, who is 15 months younger, has been even less spectacular.

 

 

And how many of those 5 will actually be available in trades? Correa, Lindor and Seager are legitimate perennial MVP candidates. Bogaerts and Russell are not necessarily on the block, but both are certainly more likely to be moved. The only other shortstop of their caliber who might be traded is Gregorius, and he looks the least likely of the last three. Especially with the late-season conversion to 3b from Torres (which did not play a part in his injury)...

[jacksonianmarch]

I honestly think Torres ends up being our 2b long term. Not because he cannot, but because I think Andujar ends up our 3b and I doubt Castro ends up being here much longer

[OH FOY]

Agree, I think Andujar will be your starter at 3rd.

[Carpin]

I honestly think Torres ends up being our 2b long term. Not because he cannot, but because I think Andujar ends up our 3b and I doubt Castro ends up being here much longer

 

Agree, I think Castro will be traded within a year. I think he's the insurance in case something goes wrong with Andujar and/or Torres

[harmony]

And how many of those 5 will actually be available in trades? Correa, Lindor and Seager are legitimate perennial MVP candidates. Bogaerts and Russell are not necessarily on the block, but both are certainly more likely to be moved. The only other shortstop of their caliber who might be traded is Gregorius, and he looks the least likely of the last three. Especially with the late-season conversion to 3b from Torres (which did not play a part in his injury)...

To be clear: I do not advocate a trade of Xander Bogaerts. The Red Sox would be trading low on a player with diminished trade value.

[Carpin]

To be clear: I do not advocate a trade of Xander Bogaerts. The Red Sox would be trading low on a player with diminished trade value.

 

If they trade him this offseason they will be selling very low on him, don't think he's as good as he was in 2015 but is not anywhere near to the 2017 version, I guess his performance should be something in between 2015 and 2016

[jacksonianmarch]

Agree, I think Castro will be traded within a year. I think he's the insurance in case something goes wrong with Andujar and/or Torres

 

Depending on how the guys progress, we might be dealing Castro in December. Torres would be the ultimate 2b, but we also have Wade ready now and Estrada behind him while Torres recovers from his TJS (he is already hitting BTW). I think someone would pay a lot to take Castro off our hands and in terms of our lineup, we might actually improve. Castro is really the only guy in our lineup who doesn't work counts. Didi may not have a high walk total, but that guy will battle every at bat and makes good contact. Castro doesn't have a high walk total and strikes out nearly once per game. He has also had some nagging injuries this year. I think he could be moved for prospects and we could fill in from within. Andujar then becomes the understudy behind either Headley or Frazier and we re-fill from there

[Carpin]

Depending on how the guys progress, we might be dealing Castro in December. Torres would be the ultimate 2b, but we also have Wade ready now and Estrada behind him while Torres recovers from his TJS (he is already hitting BTW). I think someone would pay a lot to take Castro off our hands and in terms of our lineup, we might actually improve. Castro is really the only guy in our lineup who doesn't work counts. Didi may not have a high walk total, but that guy will battle every at bat and makes good contact. Castro doesn't have a high walk total and strikes out nearly once per game. He has also had some nagging injuries this year. I think he could be moved for prospects and we could fill in from within. Andujar then becomes the understudy behind either Headley or Frazier and we re-fill from there

 

He will be traded for sure, but I don't see Cashman dealing him this winter.

 

In the other hand if he's offered something he can't refuse, he will be gone; I don't think he trades him for prospects unless is a "can't miss" prospect.

[notin]

He will be traded for sure, but I don't see Cashman dealing him this winter.

 

In the other hand if he's offered something he can't refuse, he will be gone; I don't think he trades him for prospects unless is a "can't miss" prospect.

 

You won't get "can't miss" prospects for Castro. Most likely he rides out his contract in NY

[Kimmi]

I'm not in any rush to give up on Bogaerts at this point, anyway. Yes, he's inconsistent and frustrating as hell, and he may never quite be what we thought he'd be in 2013, but he's had half-season stretches where he looks like a future batting champ and possesses raw power that remains mostly untapped (he did hit 21 HR as recently as a year ago). It's easy to forget how young he still is, having just turned 25 this month.

 

That's not to say I wouldn't consider any deal for him, but I think if you traded him this winter you'd likely be selling low. (Same with JBJ, to a lesser extent.)

 

I'm not in any rush to trade any of our young guys. I'd rather keep our young core with their cost controlled salaries than take on Stanton's 10 years. I really expect that our offense will be better next year even if we don't 'upgrade'.

[Carpin]

You won't get "can't miss" prospects for Castro. Most likely he rides out his contract in NY

 

I agree he won't get us a "can't miss" prospects but he has a lot of value, he batted .300 and he's only 27, by the way, his contract by today standards is team friendly (3/38M + a team option). I'm sure there will be more than one team interested in his services. I don't think he finishes his contract in NY, Torres and Andujar are coming to the Bronx in 2018 and they have a chance to be better than him (certainly have more potential, specially Torres)

[d-money]

This team needs to get it right. The Yankees on the verge of a World Series berth. The last two seasons have been pretty much failures because of the crappy postseason. Not being able to advance past the divisional round.

[Larry Cook]

This team needs to get it right. The Yankees on the verge of a World Series berth. The last two seasons have been pretty much failures because of the crappy postseason. Not being able to advance past the divisional round.

 

I expect the Yankees to go hard after talent this offseason by either trade or free agency.

[oldtimer]

I'm not in any rush to trade any of our young guys. I'd rather keep our young core with their cost controlled salaries than take on Stanton's 10 years. I really expect that our offense will be better next year even if we don't 'upgrade'.

 

I'd prefer trading JBJ and whatever for Ozuna. Age, cost, position, power, average are all there plus he is a CF. Would the Marlins let him go? Stanton has more power but Ozuna might be a better match for the Sox. I also want to keep our young core but think JBJ would be expendable if we could get Ozuna. Maybe I'm dreaming that Jeter would consider such a trade.

[notin]

This team needs to get it right. The Yankees on the verge of a World Series berth. The last two seasons have been pretty much failures because of the crappy postseason. Not being able to advance past the divisional round.

 

Winning the division is never a failure. It took 6 months to do and I enjoyed watching it all.

 

Yes, it would be nice to advance beyond the divisional round. But if they lost in the ALCS, would that be considered "successful"? Ultimately only one team emerges from the season on a winning note...

[notin]

I'd prefer trading JBJ and whatever for Ozuna. Age, cost, position, power, average are all there plus he is a CF. Would the Marlins let him go? Stanton has more power but Ozuna might be a better match for the Sox. I also want to keep our young core but think JBJ would be expendable if we could get Ozuna. Maybe I'm dreaming that Jeter would consider such a trade.

 

I soured on the Bradley/Ozuna trades.

 

Both Bradley and Ozuna have been worth 7.3 fWAR over the past two seasons. Bradley is controlled for 3 more years, while Ozuna is under control for two. Bradley is older, but not by much (7 months).

 

So there is no overall upgrade, both players are at the same phase of their careers, and Bradley is under control for longer. Why is it the Sox are always asked to throw in extra players in this lateral/backwards deal?