8/26 vs Orioles

[moonslav59]

You're right of course. 3 games is a really small sample. But you can't ignore all the downsides in these three games, especially the rotation, nor the fact that Yankees have now made up a game and are 3.5 games out, nor that the Guardians are at home vs. the Royals, whom they beat last night and against whom they have the pitching edge tonight again. If they win, they will be .5 games back to get that home field advantage in the ALDS. Once again the Sox have a losing record against the Orioles, but fortunately I think we only play them 3 more times, including tomorrow.

 

This pennant race is getting tighter here in late August. It is note too early to indulge in a little worrying. Humor me.

 

There is a lot of gray area between ignoring a 3 game sample size and proclaiming the end of the world as we know it.

[Kimmi]

Category 4 Hurricane here......... if I don't post every 10 minutes call 911 for me please.....

 

Stay safe SoxHop. I hope you and your family and friends got through it okay.

[Kimmi]

Had a feeling the birds were going to kick our f.. brains in this series. Our team showing zero life right now.

 

I hate playing them. It seems like they always beat us.

[Kimmi]

Maybe ERod's doctor gives him a note saying his arm/hand/wrist can't do breaking balls until later in the game. And apparently that note works with his catcher, pitching coach, and manager. Doctor's orders: steady diet of fastballs until the game is out of hand.

 

Isn't this the typical MO of pitchers though, to establish the fast ball? Some pitchers throw pretty much all fastballs the first time through the order.

 

That said, if it's not working, then the coaches really should work on a different game plan with him.

 

One of the things I loved about Varitek is that he was so good at changing the game plan mid stream if the current plan was not working.

[Kimmi]

Is anyone else watching this game? ERod gets clobbered in the 1st and 2d innings throwing an overabundance of fast balls and I think no changeups. He starts using changeups big time in the 3d inning and has now had 3 very effective innings.

 

What the heck is wrong with Farrell and the pitching coach that they allow ERod to do this?

 

You are right that ERod does not fare well the 1st and 2nd innings. He pitches well in the 3rd, but then does not pitch well in the 4th. Here are his ERAs and OPS against by inning, not including today:

 

1st - 4.24 / .757

 

2nd - 6.35 / .872

 

3rd - 2.12 / .564

 

4th - 5.29 / .766

[Maxbialystock]

There is a lot of gray area between ignoring a 3 game sample size and proclaiming the end of the world as we know it.

 

What gray area? The Sox have had a great run in August, but these last 3 games deserve a little more attention than you want to give them. Sale, FYI, gave up 7 runs in his last start and 4 in the one before. Porcello is up and down like a yo-yo, but mostly down. ERod gets hammered early. Fister is looking a lot better, but still. Pomeranz alone seems steady ever since he griped publicly about Farrell taking him out early several games ago.

 

August turned this season around--a combination of solid pitching and, finally, solid hitting. As you said, 16 wins against 4 losses against some pretty good teams like the Guardians, Yankees, and Cardinals.

 

No one, least of all me, is saying this is the end of life as we know it. I think you are glossing over a very troubling trend--short-lived as we hope it will be--at the wrong time in the season. I know I'm repeating myself, but I think the facts are on my side. Please present some of your own, which I know you are very good at.

[Maxbialystock]

Stay safe SoxHop. I hope you and your family and friends got through it okay.

 

I second that.

[moonslav59]

I hate playing them. It seems like they always beat us.

 

I'm glad it's the O's.

 

We won't have to face them in the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

What gray area? The Sox have had a great run in August, but these last 3 games deserve a little more attention than you want to give them. Sale, FYI, gave up 7 runs in his last start and 4 in the one before. Porcello is up and down like a yo-yo, but mostly down. ERod gets hammered early. Fister is looking a lot better, but still. Pomeranz alone seems steady ever since he griped publicly about Farrell taking him out early several games ago.

 

August turned this season around--a combination of solid pitching and, finally, solid hitting. As you said, 16 wins against 4 losses against some pretty good teams like the Guardians, Yankees, and Cardinals.

 

No one, least of all me, is saying this is the end of life as we know it. I think you are glossing over a very troubling trend--short-lived as we hope it will be--at the wrong time in the season. I know I'm repeating myself, but I think the facts are on my side. Please present some of your own, which I know you are very good at.

 

Yes, I am glossing over a 3 game sample size- good or bad.

 

It doesn't mean it is meaningless, and if we continue losing I'll begin to get worried, but this team is not this bad. They likely are not as good as the 16-4 stretch Sox as well.

 

If I had to choose which team we are closer to- the last 3 days or the 20 games before, I'd choose the 16-4. I think they are somewhere in between, hence the term "gray area".

 

I hope we get healthy for the playoffs, and if we are, I will not look back at these 3 games and stress over them.

[jad]

Read my first post on this thread, the one with the lineup. In there I say that Devers' least effective batting order position is 5th, season to date. Batting 5th his OPS is like 400 points below 6th, 7th, and 9th combined.

 

No one remembers where they are hitting in the order when they're standing in front of a 90+mph fastball.

[Maxbialystock]

Guardians are hitless in 4 innings, but the score is 0-0 in the top of the 5th. Clevenger got out a bases loaded jump in the 4th, but got the first 2 men out in the top of the 5th. 77 pitches.

[moonslav59]

No one remembers where they are hitting in the order when they're standing in front of a 90+mph fastball.

 

His whole MLB career is a tiny sample size. His sample sizes at each slot are teenie-weenie.

[Maxbialystock]

His whole MLB career is a tiny sample size. His sample sizes at each slot are teenie-weenie.

 

Completely agree. Small sample sizes, including his entire season. But I would then say that's all the evidence we have and we ignore it at our peril (well, Farrell's).

 

He's 20 (21 in Oct), first time in the Majors, in a pressure-filled pennant race, and started out like a house afire. I would argue that prudence would let him bat later if only to give him more time to size up the starter and to put less pressure on him.

 

Look at JBJ. He's a veteran whose OWAR (which does not include his defense) this year is the 2d best on the team and 80% of his 389 at bats have been in the 6th thru 9th slots. His lowest OPS? The 61 at bats while in the 5th slot--.480. Is that a decent sample size?

 

Heck, I've already said I'm not sure I'm right. It's entirely possible opposing pitchers have figured him out or the pressure of a pennant race is getting to him or this is just part of a normal up and down cycle for any player.

 

But at least I'm offering some evidence that maybe he would be helped by moving down in the order. And, by the way, the later you are in the season, the more important mini-trends can be in determining any moves you might to make as a manager. Devers has had 2 hits and no rbi's in the last 7 games. In the 8 games before that he had 13 hits and 9 rbi's. Did I forget to mention that throughout August, which has gone well overall, Farrell has not hesitated to shift almost everyone around in the batting order?

Edited August 27, 2017 by Maxbialystock

[Maxbialystock]

Cleveland up 4 in the 7th on two dingers. If they win, they're just .5 back from the home field advantage. Not to worry. We did win 16 out of the previous 20 games. Everything will be fine.

[moonslav59]

Look at JBJ. He's a veteran whose OWAR (which does not include his defense) this year is the 2d best on the team and 80% of his 389 at bats have been in the 6th thru 9th slots. His lowest OPS? The 61 at bats while in the 5th slot--.480. Is that a decent sample size?

 

To me, 61 PAs is small, especially when scattered over a season.

 

Over his career, his best slot is 6th (.854) and his worst is 5th (.562).

 

It doesn't make sense that this is anything more than just freaky happenings.

 

(It should be noted that JBj has batted 5th only 165 times over his career, which is less than 9% of his total PAs. It's less than half of his PAs up 6th (364) and less than a 4th of his PAs batting 9th. )

 

[moonslav59]

Did I forget to mention that throughout August, which has gone well overall, Farrell has not hesitated to shift almost everyone around in the batting order?

 

I've always been fine with moving players around and poo-pooing the idea that players need slot stability and improve production in "comfort" slots.

 

I've been wrong a lot this year on who should bat where and when. Players have reverse splits this year, and several times, I have been critical of JF for playing someone, they have done well.

 

I've been highly critical of JF, but I've never said I'm better than he is.

 

I think I've been right a lot and wrong a lot. It's kind of interesting for me to see how my suggestions turn out, although one never knows what might have happened, if _______.

[moonslav59]

He's 20 (21 in Oct), first time in the Majors, in a pressure-filled pennant race, and started out like a house afire. I would argue that prudence would let him bat later if only to give him more time to size up the starter and to put less pressure on him.

 

If he's better than HRam and Moreland, I'd bat him 4th.

 

Little data there.

[Maxbialystock]

He's 20 (21 in Oct), first time in the Majors, in a pressure-filled pennant race, and started out like a house afire. I would argue that prudence would let him bat later if only to give him more time to size up the starter and to put less pressure on him.

 

If he's better than HRam and Moreland, I'd bat him 4th.

 

Little data there.

 

I'm honestly smiling because I get it. HanRam and Moreland drive me nuts too.

 

But my new, no doubt countervailing theory is that hitters do best in a slot where, for whatever reason, they are comfortable. Take Betts. His best OPS and most rbi's are batting 1st. Next most at bats--112, almost 1/3 of his leadoff at bats of 346--have been batting 3d, where his OPS dips 83 points, he gets 1/4 the rbi's that he gets leading off and 1/6th the runs scored. There might be one person (me) on talksox right now who thinks Betts should lead off. Even I'm not so sure because the 112 at bats are a much smaller sample size than the 346 in the leadoff slot. Nevertheless, it's enough for me to say leading off hasn't been the disaster everyone thinks it has been.

[moonslav59]

I'm honestly smiling because I get it. HanRam and Moreland drive me nuts too.

 

But my new, no doubt countervailing theory is that hitters do best in a slot where, for whatever reason, they are comfortable. Take Betts. His best OPS and most rbi's are batting 1st. Next most at bats--112, almost 1/3 of his leadoff at bats of 346--have been batting 3d, where his OPS dips 83 points, he gets 1/4 the rbi's that he gets leading off and 1/6th the runs scored. There might be one person (me) on talksox right now who thinks Betts should lead off. Even I'm not so sure because the 112 at bats are a much smaller sample size than the 346 in the leadoff slot. Nevertheless, it's enough for me to say leading off hasn't been the disaster everyone thinks it has been.

 

Devers batted very well in the 3 slot (.951) at AA and had the most PAs there (197 AB). He only batted 6th in AAA (35 ABs and 1.047).

 

Betts career:

.886 up 4th

.852 up 8th (should we bat him 8th over 1st?)

.848 up 1st

.807 up 7th

.773 up 3rd

.772 up 2nd

[a700hitter]

Category 4 Hurricane here......... if I don't post every 10 minutes call 911 for me please.....

I hope you get through the storm safely.

[a700hitter]

I blame these ugly jerseys for the offense sucking

There jerseys around baseball ranged from garish to hideously ugly. I get the nicknames on the Jerseys, but why the hideous uniforms that made every team look like a softball team or clowns?

[moonslav59]

We got 10 inches of rain today. We're lucky to still have power.

 

We're projected to get 15 or more inches over the next 3-4 days.

 

We don't live by a river or the ocean, but some isolated areas are supposed to get 40+ inches. That's just sick!

 

We got plenty of food and water. and our three pets are freaking out.

 

[moonslav59]

There jerseys around baseball ranged from garish to hideously ugly. I get the nicknames on the Jerseys, but why the hideous uniforms that made every team look like a softball team or clowns?

 

Maybe Sale can cut 'em all up!

[a700hitter]

We got 10 inches of rain today. We're lucky to still have power.

 

We're projected to get 15 or more inches over the next 3-4 days.

 

We don't live by a river or the ocean, but some isolated areas are supposed to get 40+ inches. That's just sick!

 

We got plenty of food and water. and our three pets are freaking out.

 

Stay safe. If the power to your home gets reduced, you may have to abandon boldface type.

[a700hitter]

Maybe Sale can cut 'em all up!

What is the significance of these goofy uniforms?

[moonslav59]

stay safe. If the power to your home gets reduced, you may have to abandon boldface type.

 

lol

[moonslav59]

What is the significance of these goofy uniforms?

 

Money

 

Some goofy people will want to buy one for their wardrobe.

[a700hitter]

Money

 

Some goofy people will want to buy one for their wardrobe.

Who wants to look at these clown outfits? They will never make enough sales of this garbage to recover the cost of designing an producing these uniforms.

[SoxHop]

We got 10 inches of rain today. We're lucky to still have power.

 

We're projected to get 15 or more inches over the next 3-4 days.

 

We don't live by a river or the ocean, but some isolated areas are supposed to get 40+ inches. That's just sick!

 

We got plenty of food and water. and our three pets are freaking out.

 

 

Moon, I forget, are you near Houston or Dallas? It's been raining in Austin for a day straight and the weather report says it isn't going to stop for a while.

 

What's the protocol for sending a duck boat down here for rescue????

 

Is there some kind of batman/Redsox signal we can shine in the sky?

Edited August 27, 2017 by SoxHop

[Bellhorn04]

There jerseys around baseball ranged from garish to hideously ugly. I get the nicknames on the Jerseys, but why the hideous uniforms that made every team look like a softball team or clowns?

 

Amen to that.