A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[BstHcpr]

It would be nice to add a rookie every year....

 

2017 Benitendi

2018 Devers

 

Is Travis still in our plans to start 1B for next year?

 

Have you seen his numbers at Pawtucket?

[moonslav59]

so you've changed your views on him slightly because rest of team lack power? I get it. I want power from DH and corner positions.

 

Yes, I have changed my view.

 

I thought we'd finish top 3-5 in runs scored this year. We may come close to 6th or 7th, but I think power is our biggest weakness going forward. Maybe Devers will help a little. Maybe 8 out of 9 batters declining this year from last will reverse itself, but I think our pitching looks fine going into 2018. Wright, Smith and Thornburg could add to what is already the bext staff in the AL.

 

It's a new power era. I misjudged it.

 

I think signing Duda & Nunez might be all we need to do.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, five years ago. Encarnacion didn't break out until he was in his late 20's, and signed with the Guardians as a 34 year old. Hosmer is going to be 27. Someone is going to talk themselves into getting him a long-term contract.

 

I agree on long term. I disagree on the money.

 

I think I overestimated the cost of signing Duda & Hosmer earlier.

 

I'm hoping one might bite at more money but less years. I'd like to keep the door open for Chavis (Travis/Ockimey/Dalbec) at 1B in 2019 or 2020.

 

[moonslav59]

It made him a lot better than his wRC+ indicated. 112 wRC+ with plus speed and defense is an outstanding player to have.

 

My point was, 2013 was not "outstanding".

 

The guy had 2 good to great years in the 6 years from 2008 to 2013. Couple that with injury concerns and the history of aging players who rely on speed for a large part of their production and to me, warning signs were everywhere.

 

We had just seen what happened to CC.

 

It seemed obvious to me anyway/

[BstHcpr]

My point was, 2013 was not "outstanding".

 

The guy had 2 good to great years in the 6 years from 2008 to 2013. Couple that with injury concerns and the history of aging players who rely on speed for a large part of their production and to me, warning signs were everywhere.

 

We had just seen what happened to CC.

 

It seemed obvious to me anyway/

 

His 2011 season was worthy of the MVP.

[moonslav59]

Have you seen his numbers at Pawtucket?

 

A .734 OPS at AAA is not very encouraging, but he's still go time to grow.

[moonslav59]

Travis has only played in 311 minor league games.

 

If you divide his numbers in half, his season totals would be close to...

 

156 Games

657 PAs

 

.296 13 86

 

38 2B+3B

 

.360 OBP

.435 SLG (low for 1B)

 

.795 OPS

 

[BstHcpr]

I agree on long term. I disagree on the money.

 

I think I overestimated the cost of signing Duda & Hosmer earlier.

 

I'm hoping one might bite at more money but less years. I'd like to keep the door open for Chavis (Travis/Ockimey/Dalbec) at 1B in 2019 or 2020.

 

 

He's a 2-3 WAR 1B selling three years of his prime as a free agent. The going rate was about $9 million a win last year. 5/100 is a completely reasonably ask.

[moonslav59]

He's a 2-3 WAR 1B selling three years of his prime as a free agent. The going rate was about $9 million a win last year. 5/100 is a completely reasonably ask.

 

Maybe to ask. Maybe he'll get close to that, but I'd prefer to get Duda for $40-45M/3...maybe $50M.

[BstHcpr]

Maybe to ask. Maybe he'll get close to that, but I'd prefer to get Duda for $40-45M/3...maybe $50M.

 

Duda is coming off a major injury, has had two consecutive down years, will be 32, and has no defensive value. The Red Sox could get him for 1/10.

[moonslav59]

Duda is coming off a major injury, has had two consecutive down years, will be 32, and has no defensive value. The Red Sox could get him for 1/10.

 

Where is the two consecutive "down years?"

.718 2011

.767 2012

.830 2014

.838 2015

.714 2016 (Injured-172 PAs)

.878 2017

 

I see a steady increase interrupted by one season of injury.

 

He'll get more than $10M/1 but maybe less than the $40/3 I suggested.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Compared to Duda, Hosmer is a yo-yo...

 

.799

.663 -133

.801 +138

.716 -95

.822 +106

.761 -61

.864 +103

 

He's up and down by about 100 points every year.

 

Yes, he's a better fielder by far, and he's just started prime, but I would not chose this guy to me my 4-5 or 6 year 1Bman.

[moonslav59]

Compared to Duda, Hosmer is a yo-yo...

 

.799

.663 -133

.801 +138

.716 -95

.822 +106

.761 -61

.864 +103

 

He's up and down by about 100 points every year.

 

Yes, he's a better fielder by far, and he's just started prime, but I would not chose this guy to me my 4-5 or 6 year 1Bman. We need to avoid a long term deal at 1B this winter. Nobody is out there that is worth it.

 

We may end up trading for one.

[BstHcpr]

Where is the two consecutive "down years?"

.718 2011

.767 2012

.830 2014

.838 2015

.714 2016 (Injured-172 PAs)

.878 2017

 

I see a steady increase interrupted by one season of injury.

 

He'll get more than $10M/1 but maybe less than the $40/3 I suggested.

 

 

 

 

I won't insult your intelligence by pointing out that there is more to baseball than hitting. Maybe a team goes 2 years for him if he finishes the season well.

[Nick]

There's a reason DD went for Moreland and 1 yr.

 

I doubt Duda and Hosmer are on his radar.

[a700hitter]

Duda sucks. He is as streaky as they come and when he is in a bad streak, he is completely useless. Also, he is a bad fielder and a slug on the bases.

[Nick]

Brock Holt with OPS of .523 starting in place of Devers, because a lefty is on mound.

 

I want this no talent gone. He just sucks. Skinny little dude with no athleticism. Yuck

[moonslav59]

I won't insult your intelligence by pointing out that there is more to baseball than hitting. Maybe a team goes 2 years for him if he finishes the season well.

 

I mentioned Hosmer is a way better fielder.

 

I love D more than O at almost every position. 1B is not one of them, but it still matters.

 

I'm worried more about our budget issues in 2-3 years. That's why I'm looking at who might be the best short-term option out there for 1B. There's no assurance recent prior production will repeat itself, but Duda has better prior 2-4 year numbers than just about any other FA 1Bman on this winter's market, and he might take a 1-2 year deal..

[moonslav59]

There's a reason DD went for Moreland and 1 yr.

 

I doubt Duda and Hosmer are on his radar.

 

DD may not think we need a big bat, but if he does, 1B/DH seems like the logical place to acquires someone that fits the need.

 

The choices are limited in the FA market.

 

I'm not a hug fan of Duda, but I don't want to sign Hosmer long term, so Duda looks like the best of there rest for a possible one or two year contract.

 

[a700hitter]

DD may not think we need a big bat, but if he does, 1B/DH seems like the logical place to acquires someone that fits the need.

 

The choices are limited in the FA market.

 

I'm not a hug fan of Duda, but I don't want to sign Hosmer long term, so Duda looks like the best of there rest for a possible one or two year contract.

 

Hosmer is a top flight fielder and Duda is a born DH.

[moonslav59]

Brock Holt with OPS of .523 starting in place of Devers, because a lefty is on mound.

 

I want this no talent gone. He just sucks. Skinny little dude with no athleticism. Yuck

 

I thought we should have traded Holt after his all star year.

 

Starting Holt is just another reason to fire JF.

[moonslav59]

Hosmer is a top flight fielder and Duda is a born DH.

 

Yes, Hosmer has won something like 3 GGs.

 

We need a big bat, and signing Hosmer to play the position known for power and offense for 4+ years is not what we need in many ways.

[moonslav59]

We signed an all glove 1Bman this last winter.

 

If Pedey wasn't on the DL, Moreland would be benched right now.

[moonslav59]

How about Stanton with 21 HRs in his last 33 games?

 

Let's just trade for him!

 

(LOL)

[Nick]

How about Stanton with 21 HRs in his last 33 games?

 

Let's just trade for him!

 

(LOL)

 

and Votto.....screw the luxury tax

[moonslav59]

Pablo HRs for SFG

 

On the farm...

 

Jalen Beeks 6 IP 2 H 1 ER 2 BB 6 K

 

Brentz 1 for 4

 

Chavis 0 for 5

[BstHcpr]

I mentioned Hosmer is a way better fielder.

 

I love D more than O at almost every position. 1B is not one of them, but it still matters.

 

I'm worried more about our budget issues in 2-3 years. That's why I'm looking at who might be the best short-term option out there for 1B. There's no assurance recent prior production will repeat itself, but Duda has better prior 2-4 year numbers than just about any other FA 1Bman on this winter's market, and he might take a 1-2 year deal..

 

I don't want either of them. I'd rather take Morrison.

[Spudboy]

Duda sucks. He is as streaky as they come and when he is in a bad streak, he is completely useless. Also, he is a bad fielder and a slug on the bases.

 

And you know this because you visited Fangraphs today no doubt.

[a700hitter]

And you know this because you visited Fangraphs today no doubt.

I have a binder full of numbers to back up my position, but they are all in my head.

[moonslav59]

I don't want either of them. I'd rather take Morrison.

 

You mean the guy who hasn't been over .735 for 5 years before this year's outlier season?

 

No thanks.