Red Sox Trade Deadline 2017 Thread

[sk7326]

Question I have is whether Jose Bautista is worth a buy-low look.

[moonslav59]

Question I have is whether Jose Bautista is worth a buy-low look.

 

Hell no. We don't need another DH type.

[moonslav59]

He's not that old. I see no reason why he cannot be a serious offensive force as a DH until age 40 like Ortiz had been.

 

Miggy's so-called decline is one year in the making and may be just a blip, but the Pablo experiment should be a warning sign.

 

There is an $8M buyout on Miggy's contract after his age 40 season (after 2023).

 

I doubt Detroit would pay enough of Miggy's deal for us to trade for him, but I'd love to see Miggy at 1B/DH for us going forward.

[sk7326]

Hell no. We don't need another DH type.

 

Really depends on whether Hanley can handle a more full time ride at 1B

[moonslav59]

Really depends on whether Hanley can handle a more full time ride at 1B

 

Even if the doctors say he can, I wouldn't do it.

 

We need HRam's bat remaining healthy, rested and potent.

 

It's not worth the risk.

 

If we want a big bat added, and the Devers call-up is for the rest of the year, to me, 1B is the obvious upgrade position for the remainder of this year. Since we are likely to see Moreland depart this winter, we can also look for a longer term 1B solution, if a worthwhile deal is out there.

[a700hitter]

Miggy's so-called decline is one year in the making and may be just a blip, but the Pablo experiment should be a warning sign.

 

There is an $8M buyout on Miggy's contract after his age 40 season (after 2023).

 

I doubt Detroit would pay enough of Miggy's deal for us to trade for him, but I'd love to see Miggy at 1B/DH for us going forward.

Mentioning Pablo in the same post as Miggy as a comparable situation in any aspect discredits the entire post.

[Bellhorn04]

Let's put it this way - David Ortiz is the exception to the rule when it comes to big-bodied sluggers aging well.

[moonslav59]

Mentioning Pablo in the same post as Miggy as a comparable situation in any aspect discredits the entire post.

 

I was agreeing with you in the post you are now bashing.

[a700hitter]

Let's put it this way - David Ortiz is the exception to the rule when it comes to big-bodied sluggers aging well.

Miggy is an exception to all right handed hitters. They guy lives in a different universe.

[a700hitter]

I was agreeing with you in the post you are now bashing.

But the concern you mentioned referenced Pablo.

[Jack Flap]

Let's put it this way - David Ortiz is the exception to the rule when it comes to big-bodied sluggers aging well.

 

Very true. Cabrera may or may not be able to maintain a high level of production as he ages, but you'd be gambling a hell of a lot of money on his ability to do -- and at a time when we're probably going to have issues signing all of our young guys to extensions as it is. I would think our current concern with the luxury tax would rule out taking on any of these huge contracts like Miggy, Stanton, Votto, etc.

[moonslav59]

But the concern you mentioned referenced Pablo.

 

Yes, I did, but in the context that Pablo's was a 4 year decline while Miggy's is a "just" a year "decline" (actually a half year) or "blip".

 

Never the less, his bad half year should be at least a little concerning with his bloated contract.

[sk7326]

Let's put it this way - David Ortiz is the exception to the rule when it comes to big-bodied sluggers aging well.

 

Well Ortiz' was the most unusual aging curve of them all - where he looked almost finished 8 years ago.

[moonslav59]

Well Ortiz' was the most unusual aging curve of them all - where he looked almost finished 8 years ago.

 

Expecting anyone else to come close to Papi's age curve is wishful thinking, at best.

 

Miggy is only 34, so I do think one can reasonably expect a few more big seasons from him before he reaches 39 or 40.

 

The money is what worries me most.

[a700hitter]

Expecting anyone else to come close to Papi's age curve is wishful thinking, at best.

 

Miggy is only 34, so I do think one can reasonably expect a few more big seasons from him before he reaches 39 or 40.

 

The money is what worries me most.

6/150 would be well worth it even if he falls off a cliff after year 4.

[Kimmi]

Expecting anyone else to come close to Papi's age curve is wishful thinking, at best.

 

Miggy is only 34, so I do think one can reasonably expect a few more big seasons from him before he reaches 39 or 40.

 

The money is what worries me most.

 

We just went through this whole thing, ad nauseum, about how it's a bad idea to sign players over 30 who are fat and in bad shape to bloated contracts. I cannot believe that anyone would consider taking on that contract.

 

Yes, Miggy has been awesome. Next year, he may very well not be.

[moonslav59]

6/150 would be well worth it even if he falls off a cliff after year 4.

 

$150/6 implies the Tigers will pay $42M, as Miggy is due $192/6.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

You're right.

 

Duda 1.2 WAR

Moreland 0.9 WAR

Alonso 1.5 WAR

 

Duda and Alonso are better offensive players but Moreland makes up some ground with his glove. But if you think Moreland is going to hit again and is just going through a bad stretch, he is comparable to Duda and Alonso.

 

The weird thing about Alonso is that his oWAR is impressive (2.5) but not his dWAR (-1.4). In contrast, Moreland's oWAR is 0.6. If the Red Sox think Alonso is a better fielder than his current dWAR would suggest, trading for him would make sense--he is a much better offensive player than Moreland.

 

But let's say Moreland, Duda, and Alonso are basically the same players in terms of value, where do the Red Sox go in order to improve the offense? The first basemen who are clearly better than Moreland either aren't available or the Red Sox don't have the minor league assets to acquire them, leaving us with the likes of Duda and Alonso.

 

As such, maybe the Red Sox promote Devers, find a relief pitcher, and that's it. Just hope that guys like Moreland, Benintendi, and Bogaerts hit better over the next three months.

 

An additional thought--I guess you could say I've changed my mind.

 

We have to consider the possibility, nay, probability that Moreland's decline was due to the injury. We also have to consider that Moreland may never fully recover from that injury. That is, even if he physically recovers, his fundamentals may be so out of whack that he doesn't start hitting again. If that is the case, then Duda or Alonso would be a significant offensive upgrade and an important addition.

 

Our offense was much better earlier in the year when Moreland was hitting. Our offense has slumped considerably with the prolonged slumps of Bogaerts and Moreland. There is a possibility that Moreland never gets going again. Accordingly, it could be argued that the Red Sox need to trade for a first baseman even if that first baseman is Duda or Alonso.

[moonslav59]

An additional thought--I guess you could say I've changed my mind.

 

We have to consider the possibility, nay, probability that Moreland's decline was due to the injury. We also have to consider that Moreland may never fully recover from that injury. That is, even if he physically recovers, his fundamentals may be so out of whack that he doesn't start hitting again. If that is the case, then Duda or Alonso would be a significant offensive upgrade and an important addition.

 

Our offense was much better earlier in the year when Moreland was hitting. Our offense has slumped considerably with the prolonged slumps of Bogaerts and Moreland. There is a possibility that Moreland never gets going again. Accordingly, it could be argued that the Red Sox need to trade for a first baseman even if that first baseman is Duda or Alonso.

 

It could just be that Moreland was being Moreland.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It could just be that Moreland was being Moreland.

 

Doubtful if you look at his pre-injury versus post-injury numbers. I don't believe in coincidences. The injury cut into Moreland's production and there is no guarantee that he will ever get going again this season. As such, the Red Sox need to make a trade for a first baseman, even if that player is Duda or Alonso.

 

EDIT: Here's the info:

There's no assuming regarding Moreland and his injury. He broke his toe on June 13. His slash line through that date: .285/.382/.495 (249 PA). His slash line since the injury: .162/.234/.252 (124 PA).

Convinced?

Edited July 24, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[harmony]

Doubtful if you look at his pre-injury versus post-injury numbers. I don't believe in coincidences. The injury cut into Moreland's production and there is no guarantee that he will ever get going again this season. As such, the Red Sox need to make a trade for a first baseman, even if that player is Duda or Alonso.

Mitch Moreland has an OPS+ of 99 in 3,135 career plate appearances, including an OPS+ of 96 in 373 plate appearances this year and an OPS+ of 88 in 503 plate appearances last year.

 

Moreland's hot start in his first 61 games with the Red Sox was most likely the outlier.

Edited July 24, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

1B Offense (Defense) from fangraphs

 

4. Smoak 23.3 (+0.8 UZR/150)

7. Alonso 17.7 (-3.6)

10. Abreu 12.4 (-2.7)

12. J Bour 11.8 (+4.6)

13. Hosmer 10.0 (+0.8)

14. J Gallo 9.7 (-3.6)

16. W Myers 6.5 (-8.8)

24. Valencia -3.5 (-0.1)

25. Moreland -4.3 (+2.9)

 

Duda +5.7(+2.3)

[moonslav59]

Doubtful if you look at his pre-injury versus post-injury numbers. I don't believe in coincidences. The injury cut into Moreland's production and there is no guarantee that he will ever get going again this season. As such, the Red Sox need to make a trade for a first baseman, even if that player is Duda or Alonso.

 

EDIT: Here's the info:

 

Convinced?

 

No, I look at his whole career sample size, which is much larger than either 2017 sample size you provided, and I think that Moreland was just coming back down to earth.

 

I'm not saying the injury wasn't part of the reason he declined, but I would have projected a decline even if healthy.

[bowman]

With the way this team is set up, I would gamble on Miggy. A change of scenery and to a team in a playoff race would light him up. We need a veteran power hitter and thats that. Without one, we won't go too far. That is unless Dever's pulls a Judge.......

[Spudboy]

To date, DD has stayed away from all of the worthless one year rentals that have been discussed over and over here. Giving up any prospects for a rental third baseman just to fill a gap for a few months makes 0 sense. I cannot believe the amount of whining about the trades that he has made on here by people who support the idea of going out and trading any prospects to find a one year third baseman, or first baseman, or dh. DD's moves have been big moves for the most part with expectations at least of getting something substantial in return for what is given up. Once again - just my opinion. I'm glad he is in charge.

 

I like this post.

[Spudboy]

I am no fan of Dombrowski's philosophy, but I can't blame him for the Shaw trade. I can blame him for not having a 3rd base back up plan, but at the time of the trade, Shaw was not the answer.

 

So it's cool to give Pablow 3 years to prove that he can play and yet give Shaw one season and conclude that he can not?

 

I think moving Shaw so early in his MLB career was a precipitous decision. He needed more time to adjust.

 

Now look. He has apparently done so and the Sox are devoid of offense at third.

 

All for a broken relief arm that has one really solid year in MLB.

[cp176]

So it's cool to give Pablow 3 years to prove that he can play and yet give Shaw one season and conclude that he can not?

 

I think moving Shaw so early in his MLB career was a precipitous decision. He needed more time to adjust.

 

Now look. He has apparently done so and the Sox are devoid of offense at third.

 

All for a broken relief arm that has one really solid year in MLB.

 

I have given this one some thought and I think that I am with you here. Initially I guess I saw this as a trade to really strengthen the bullpen - a weakness that needed to be addressed but when I look at this as possibly giving up on a player like Shaw I guess I agree. I really liked Shaw at third base for this team. He showed excellent power at the plate and a very strong arm at third. The general feeling of the people posting here was that based on his poor end of season performance he was expendable. I also liked the fact that he was a big athlete. I think we need some guys that at least look like imposing at the plate.

[Spudboy]

Doubtful if you look at his pre-injury versus post-injury numbers. I don't believe in coincidences. The injury cut into Moreland's production and there is no guarantee that he will ever get going again this season. As such, the Red Sox need to make a trade for a first baseman, even if that player is Duda or Alonso.

 

EDIT: Here's the info:

 

Convinced?

 

I am.

[bowman]

Agree, just one major screw up. Today you can't under value a player like Shaw. Young, great potential etc. You better be sure when you trade a young guy like that. Remember the Bagwell for Anderson trade. Lou Gorman later stated years after he would have done it again?????? Back then just to get a sniff at the playoffs was huge, but really. I liked Lou Gorman, he was a pisser, but back to the point it's all about talent evaluation.. ala Bill Belichek..

[sundvl20]

getting Stanton and Prado for a package starting with Beni is only way i see this team seriously contending this year. wont happen mostly because of of worst contract ever for the big tub of goo. hate to see beni go on to become Fred Lynn somewhere else but more than his #s this team misses Ortiz presence in middle of order that made everyone else better. Stanton would fill that role and with Judge in ny, this would be good for baseball. Last trade between these 2 was a win/win