Sox get Sale

[Emp9]

The playoffs are largely a crapshoot. We were already playoff contenders. Making us World Series contenders doesn't really improve our chances of winning the World Series by much. Make it to the playoffs and anything can happen. The best team does not always win.

 

And who's the best team I might ask? lol

 

So, I think it does because you have to look ahead to what your competition is. Competition we already faced first hand. Our 2016 playoff Starting Rotation just simply wasn't good enough and I had no reason to believe it would be good enough going forward. Especially when the team we would have to go through to get to the WS will theoretically get better by getting 2/5th's (2/3rds of their top 3) SPs back.

 

How does having arguably the 2nd best SP in baseball (top 5 at least I think anyway) not help your Play-off rotation?

[cp176]

I have no idea how I am ranking these guys. Just the eye test I guess. I think that E-Rod is a better pitcher then the other three.

 

 

Now seriously the point I guess that I am trying to make is that I place less value on a player's options that they might have as opposed to the ability level that they play at. I do think that in this particular case spring training makes a difference. If three or four of these guys perform at the same level without clear standouts, then yes the games begin. If you can't keep them all, someone goes down, and probably someone goes to the pen. If E-rod stands out this spring and pitches to the level that he is projected to pitch at, no I do not think that he should be sent back regardless of what options he might have. I believe the best players should be playing.

[Bellhorn04]

Out of the '4 for 2' of course, E-Rod is the only one who can be sent to Pawtucket. With Buch, Wright and Pom they have to be in the rotation, in the bullpen, on the DL or DFA'd. So if they all look OK in the spring, you'd rather stash one guy in AAA than DFA one guy. That's really the only point. If E-Rod looks great in spring I agree it's pretty unlikely they send him to AAA. The logjam may well be cleared by trading Buch anyway.

[cp176]

Out of the '4 for 2' of course, E-Rod is the only one who can be sent to Pawtucket. With Buch, Wright and Pom they have to be in the rotation, in the bullpen, on the DL or DFA'd. So if they all look OK in the spring, you'd rather stash one guy in AAA than DFA one guy. That's really the only point. If E-Rod looks great in spring I agree it's pretty unlikely they send him to AAA. The logjam may well be cleared by trading Buch anyway.

 

I wouldn't want to bet on any of the possible scenarios for sure. Buch could start, be traded, move to the pen, or go to the dl. Pom could start, go the pen or go to the dl. Wright could start or go to the dl. E-Rod could start or be shipped back or go to the dl. All kinds of things could happen. I think spring training in this situation really needs to happen just to sort things out.

[moonslav59]

Yup, just have to be a little patient before we start proclaiming the future is "doomed"

Which travis? Shaw or Sam? But really, the jury is still out on both, although Shaw may very well be what we saw. Sam Tavis may still turn out to be a 300BA with 20+ HR in MLB.

 

I meant Sam Travis.

 

You can't have it both ways.

 

You can't say it's okay trading away blue chip prospects, because they may not have made a big splash anyways and now say it's okay because we have black chip prospects that could/should help us going forward.

[moonslav59]

Not alone, of course not.It was the starting point of nearly emptying the farm.

 

Before the Kimbrel trade was also before the Espi, Hill, Moncada and Shaw trades,[/quote

 

Would you have drained the farm for Q .. The other White Sox pitcher just for the extra 2 years of control. They would have wanted that type of deal. Just look at what they wanted from Houston. It could be rumors. But the facts are not far behind.

I might think about moving Pom just to re- stock the system. They could get a good pitching prospect for him. What the Marlins turned down for Bucholtz would they take that for Pom... Could you get the #2 pitching prospect they have for Pom.

 

Q has one extra year, I believe, over Sale.

 

In a perfect world, I'd have found a cheaper way to get a closer- either financially or without top prospects.

 

So, nix the Kimbrel, Pom and Hill trades.

 

Yes, I'd have paid more for Q over Sale, but from what I hear their demands for Q looked like less than for Sale.

 

I'd have given Moncada, Espi or Kopech, Basabe & Diaz for Q.

 

Maybe we could have traded Moncada, Espi, Kopech, Margot, Guerra, Basabe, Asuaje. Allen & Diaz for Sale & Q. (Basically trading Kimbrel & Pom for Q, but having more money to spend on maybe EE.)

[moonslav59]

Now seriously the point I guess that I am trying to make is that I place less value on a player's options that they might have as opposed to the ability level that they play at. I do think that in this particular case spring training makes a difference. If three or four of these guys perform at the same level without clear standouts, then yes the games begin. If you can't keep them all, someone goes down, and probably someone goes to the pen. If E-rod stands out this spring and pitches to the level that he is projected to pitch at, no I do not think that he should be sent back regardless of what options he might have. I believe the best players should be playing.

 

Agreed, thye only time options comes into the equation is if you have to trade or cut someone by keeping another good guy on the 25 man roster.

 

Pom & Buch will help the pen. They're not going to AAA or another team, so this way we maximize our talent. (Actually, Buch may end up elsewhere.)

[Dojji]

I meant Sam Travis.

 

You can't have it both ways.

 

You can't say it's okay trading away blue chip prospects, because they may not have made a big splash anyways and now say it's okay because we have black chip prospects that could/should help us going forward.

 

I don't see why not. If the blue chips were more useful in terms of raw value, and the second tier prospects are useful because of the role they can play, I don't see a dichotomy in being fine with trading blue chips and hopeful for the future roleplayers. After all, Brock Holt came off the black chip pile and he's been moderately useful.

[moonslav59]

Out of the '4 for 2' of course, E-Rod is the only one who can be sent to Pawtucket. With Buch, Wright and Pom they have to be in the rotation, in the bullpen, on the DL or DFA'd. So if they all look OK in the spring, you'd rather stash one guy in AAA than DFA one guy. That's really the only point. If E-Rod looks great in spring I agree it's pretty unlikely they send him to AAA. The logjam may well be cleared by trading Buch anyway.

 

None of these guys will be DFA'd, so why not keep all our best pitchers on the 25 man roster.

 

The real choice here may be Buch, Pom, Wright or ERod vs out-of-options pitchers like Abad, Hembree and Elias.

[moonslav59]

I don't see why not. If the blue chips were more useful in terms of raw value, and the second tier prospects are useful because of the role they can play, I don't see a dichotomy in being fine with trading blue chips and hopeful for the future roleplayers. After all, Brock Holt came off the black chip pile and he's been moderately useful.

 

People were saying (not necessarily the same people) that we shouldn't count on prospects, especially far away ones, and that it's better to trade them for proven vets, so we can win now.

 

Now, some are saying we shouldn't worry about the extended future because we have prospects we can count on to fill the gaps.

 

You don't see an inherent contradiction there?

 

We couldn't count on blue chips, but now we can count on buffalo chips.

 

[Dojji]

Depends on what they mean by gaps. We don't really have prospects right now that project to cost controlled regulars in the near future, with the possible exception of Devers, but like I said, we have some pretty decent potential roleplayers (Hernandez, Travis, Ysla) that could plug holes. So yeah, if we're talking about key franchise pieces we have a contradiction, but if all we need is people to putty roster holes as needed, we still have plenty of that, and we have far fewer holes to putty than we did last year at this time.

[Slasher9]

Not alone, of course not.It was the starting point of nearly emptying the farm.

 

Before the Kimbrel trade was also before the Espi, Hill, Moncada and Shaw trades,

 

the starting point was when we hired DD.

As agent smith always says...it is inevitable.....

[Dojji]

the starting point was when we hired DD.

As agent smith always says...it is inevitable.....

... that a good GM looks at our situation and sees a possibility to mortgage the future for a few years of maximum competitiveness? Yes, that is pretty inevitable. What's less inevitable was Henry signing off on the idea... but he did. DD was hired to do exactly what he is doing. IF you don't like what he is doing, talk to ownership about it

 

If we're lucky, the farm can be rebuilt from the draft over the next 3-4 years and by the time we need to restock the larder from the farm, the prospects are there. If we're less than lucky, at least we had 3-4 really good bites at the apple before things seriously start to go south, and there's likely to still be plenty of strength at the big league level to deal from and restock the larder if that's the direction they want to go.

[Slasher9]

Now seriously the point I guess that I am trying to make is that I place less value on a player's options that they might have as opposed to the ability level that they play at. I do think that in this particular case spring training makes a difference. If three or four of these guys perform at the same level without clear standouts, then yes the games begin. If you can't keep them all, someone goes down, and probably someone goes to the pen. If E-rod stands out this spring and pitches to the level that he is projected to pitch at, no I do not think that he should be sent back regardless of what options he might have. I believe the best players should be playing.

and this goes back to my original response to you. you are basing "best player" on Spring Training performance? 2-4 innings pitched vs kids we never heard of and when SPers might be spending those innings working on a new pitch and not working on an "eye test". personally, i want my SPers fine tuning and taking care of their arms during games that do not count. not going full bore guns blazing gung ho to K AAA players so they pass a fake eye test.

[Slasher9]

... that a good GM looks at our situation and sees a possibility to mortgage the future for a few years of maximum competitiveness? Yes, that is pretty inevitable. What's less inevitable was Henry signing off on the idea... but he did. DD was hired to do exactly what he is doing. IF you don't like what he is doing, talk to ownership about it

 

If we're lucky, the farm can be rebuilt from the draft over the next 3-4 years and by the time we need to restock the larder from the farm, the prospects are there. If we're less than lucky, at least we had 3-4 really good bites at the apple before things seriously start to go south, and there's likely to still be plenty of strength at the big league level to deal from and restock the larder if that's the direction they want to go.

 

i never said i didnt expect it. thats my point. the day he was hired i fully expected the farm to be gutted. like i have said over and over since the Sale trade...im happy he finally gutted it for a proven Ace.

[Slasher9]

the only thing ST should decide for those 4 is if someone gets hurt and DL is required.

[cp176]

and this goes back to my original response to you. you are basing "best player" on Spring Training performance? 2-4 innings pitched vs kids we never heard of and when SPers might be spending those innings working on a new pitch and not working on an "eye test". personally, i want my SPers fine tuning and taking care of their arms during games that do not count. not going full bore guns blazing gung ho to K AAA players so they pass a fake eye test.

 

I understand what you are saying and I normally would agree. You can call the eye test fake if you like. In this case, I think that there is likely to be some good competition. So are you sold on having E-Rod start the season in the minors? what would you do?

[moonslav59]

Depends on what they mean by gaps. We don't really have prospects right now that project to cost controlled regulars in the near future, with the possible exception of Devers, but like I said, we have some pretty decent potential roleplayers (Hernandez, Travis, Ysla) that could plug holes. So yeah, if we're talking about key franchise pieces we have a contradiction, but if all we need is people to putty roster holes as needed, we still have plenty of that, and we have far fewer holes to putty than we did last year at this time.

 

Let's say, for argument's sake, we keep all our top stars, except Hanram at the following costs (minimizing the gaps we might need filled by lesser ranked prospects):

2021

$33M Sale

$33M Betts

$31M Price

$28M Porcello

$24M JBJ

$22M Bogaerts

$16M Kimbrel

$14.5M Thornburg

$13.5M Pedey

$13M C Smith______

$238M for 10 players.

 

Let's say we do without Smith or Thornburg. We'll still be at $225M with 16 more players needed for the 25 man roster and 31 total for the 40 man roster. Unless we want to go even more over the luxry limit, we can't sign any more Youngs or Morelands or trade for guys making $5M or more.

 

Maybe we trade Pedey or Bogey before they reach free agency and lessen the budget and build up the farm at the same time, but then that's another gap we are asking lower ranked prospects to fill without losing much production.

 

No Pom, Young, Moreland, Kelly, Ross, Holt, Wright or Vaz (all FAs before 2012).

 

So, with a mediocre far, we fill 16 gaps:

 

Pablo> Devers

HanRam > Travis

Moreland> Dalbec

Vaz > Swihart

Pom> Groome

Wright> Johnson

Buch> Owens (I had so say it- get it? Buck Owens!)

Thornburg or C Smith> Scott/TBall/Martin/Ysla/Workman

(Move up guys like Barnes, Scott

 

Maybe ...

Bogey > Chatham

JBJ> Castillo or a draft pick to come?

 

I'm sorry to say it, and don't call me a doom & gloomer, it's reality.

 

This doesn't look pretty in 2021.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Let's say, for argument's sake, we keep all our top stars, except Hanram at the following costs (minimizing the gaps we might need filled by lesser ranked prospects):

2021

$33M Sale

$33M Betts

$31M Price

$28M Porcello

$24M JBJ

$22M Bogaerts

$16M Kimbrel

$14.5M Thornburg

$13.5M Pedey

$13M C Smith______

$238M for 10 players.

 

Let's say we do without Smith or Thornburg. We'll still be at $225M with 16 more players needed for the 25 man roster and 31 total for the 40 man roster. Unless we want to go even more over the luxry limit, we can't sign any more Youngs or Morelands or trade for guys making $5M or more.

 

Maybe we trade Pedey or Bogey before they reach free agency and lessen the budget and build up the farm at the same time, but then that's another gap we are asking lower ranked prospects to fill without losing much production.

 

No Pom, Young, Moreland, Kelly, Ross, Holt, Wright or Vaz (all FAs before 2012).

 

So, with a mediocre far, we fill 16 gaps:

 

Pablo> Devers

HanRam > Travis

Moreland> Dalbec

Vaz > Swihart

Pom> Groome

Wright> Johnson

Buch> Owens (I had so say it- get it? Buck Owens!)

Thornburg or C Smith> Scott/TBall/Martin/Ysla/Workman

(Move up guys like Barnes, Scott

 

Maybe ...

Bogey > Chatham

JBJ> Castillo or a draft pick to come?

 

I'm sorry to say it, and don't call me a doom & gloomer, it's reality.

 

This doesn't look pretty in 2021.

 

 

So in 2021 the rebuild begins.

[moonslav59]

So in 2021 the rebuild begins.

 

Well, decisions have to be made before 2020 (and before) as well, and with rising arb costs, replacing departing players will not leave much room for FAs or massive extension costs.

 

I think we'll be okay after 2017: $29M

$13.5M Buch (replace with Owens/Johnson)

$7.5M Young (replace with Swihart)

$5.5M Moreland (replace with Travis)

$2.5M Abad (replace with Scott)

 

Arb raises to some of these players could be very costly

3 of 3 Pom, Kelly & Ross

2 of 3 Bogey, Thornburg, Holt & Rutledge

2 of 4 JBJ & Leon

1st arb Betts, Smith, ERod, Wright, Swihart & Vaz

 

We might have a little left over for a FA to fill a role.

 

after 2018 (2019): We may lose Kimbrel, Pom, Kelly & Ross

--not much money coming off the books, but we still have 5 SP'ers on the books, so maybe we can get by with in-house solutions, except for maybe a closer (Thornburg/Smith?).

--Again, even bigger arb raises is going to way outpace what we save by letting Kimbrel, Pom, Kelly and Ross go.

--Who will back fill the pen with no money to spend? If we decide to keep Kimbrel, like I said in my scenario below, then we're way over the luxury limit again.

--We could start seeing serious issues as early as 2019, but I still see us as serious or highly competitive, even if we lose Kimbrel, Pom, Kelly $ Ross.

 

After 2019: Huge decision time. Rebuild? Pay a huge tax? Keeps some-let others go?

--Pablo off the books will help a lot, even with a $5M buyout (paid in luxury tax dollars prior to 2020). HanRam will hurt, but Devers should be helpful. Porcello & Bogey are going to be the key re-signs.

--Huge arb raises

--we could see some major roster changes for 2020, but I still think we could be major contenders. Lots of "what ifs".

 

[Dojji]

See this is why people accuse you of borrowing trouble, Moonslav.

[moonslav59]

See this is why people accuse you of borrowing trouble, Moonslav.

 

It's just taking a practical look at the future.

 

Seriously, I'm not feeling gloom and doom, just some serious choices will have to be made with close to zero room for error to keep us strong beyond 4 years.

 

Our past record in late round draft choices, free agent signings and tighter international signings rules makes it difficult for me to believe we will be close to zero error free with our major choices over the next 3-4 years.

[Bellhorn04]

My position, in all seriousness, is this: 'That's why they (DD & baseball ops) get paid the big bucks.'

 

I'm sure they have been spending a lot of time analyzing all this stuff. They get paid for that. We just do it for fun.

[Emp9]

If we're lucky, the farm can be rebuilt from the draft over the next 3-4 years and by the time we need to restock the larder from the farm, the prospects are there.

 

I don't see us rebuilding too much from the next 2-4 drafts. I think the only way we rebuild the farm is by trading players from our major league roster to other teams (that are trying to get in contention) at the right times. Buch, Pom, Sandoval, HanRam, XB, Kelly, JBJ, Porc, etc. If it makes more sense to resign or extend a player, sure, do it, but if it makes more sense to deal them and get some decent prospects back (and of course try replace them with a reasonable replacement) if the opportunity presents itself. It'll be tricky since I think they'll be in contention as well, but... this is the only real way to keep a stocked farm and compete at the same time. Recycle.

[S5Dewey]

My position, in all seriousness, is this: 'That's why they (DD & baseball ops) get paid the big bucks.'

 

I'm sure they have been spending a lot of time analyzing all this stuff. They get paid for that. We just do it for fun.

 

Yes. I agree with this. I'm confident that the FO has short-term goals and long-term goals. We as fans just don't know what they are - as well we shouldn't, because if we know then everyone knows and letting your competition know what your goals are is poor strategy.

 

It's possible that the FO has the intention of worrying about 2019 in 2019.... or they may have plans in place to partially blow the team up later by not signing anyone who's heading to FA-gency. Or it may be something else. We don't know and we have no control over it.

 

Since I make a concerted effort to not worry about things I have no control over I'm going to enjoy this ride for the next 2-3 years and let them worry about 2019.

[moonslav59]

If we're lucky, the farm can be rebuilt from the draft over the next 3-4 years and by the time we need to restock the larder from the farm, the prospects are there.

 

I don't see us rebuilding too much from the next 2-4 drafts. I think the only way we rebuild the farm is by trading players from our major league roster to other teams (that are trying to get in contention) at the right times. Buch, Pom, Sandoval, HanRam, XB, Kelly, JBJ, Porc, etc. If it makes more sense to resign or extend a player, sure, do it, but if it makes more sense to deal them and get some decent prospects back (and of course try replace them with a reasonable replacement) if the opportunity presents itself. It'll be tricky since I think they'll be in contention as well, but... this is the only real way to keep a stocked farm and compete at the same time. Recycle.

 

I'm not sure trading is a big option.

1) We most likely won't have the great prospects to trade for meaningful pieces.

2) If we trade vets, it means we are losing and are getting ready for the next season by trading players with 2 months or a year left of team control.

 

I think our best hopes rest with signing international players. These signings have carried us, and despite the new spending restrictions and penalties, I think this is the area we have shown the most skill and can be expected to continue to some extent.

 

Here are our international signings:

 

14-15 & bonus

Moncada $31.5M (C Sale) plus $31.5M tax

Espinoza $1.8M (Pomeranz)

C Acosta $1.5M

R Castillo $5.4M (plus mega deal)

 

13-14

Devers $1.5M

J Diaz $600K (Sale)

Hinojosa $4M

 

12-13

Almonte $610K

W Rijo $575K (A Hill)

 

11-12

Margot $800K (Kimbrel)

T-W Lin $2M

 

10-11

Linares $750K

J Aro (C. Smith)

 

09-10

Bogey $510K

Iggy $6.25M (Peavy > Hembree)

F Montas (Peavy>Hembree)

J Vincio $1.95M

 

08-09

Tazawa $1.8M

 

07-08

Almanzar $1.5M

 

06-07

Dice-K

Okajima

 

04-05

Doubront

 

2001

A Sanchez

 

2000

HanRam

 

1998

Jorge de la Rosa (Schilling)

 

1984

C Quintanna

 

 

 

[notin]

And who's the best team I might ask? lol

 

So, I think it does because you have to look ahead to what your competition is. Competition we already faced first hand. Our 2016 playoff Starting Rotation just simply wasn't good enough and I had no reason to believe it would be good enough going forward. Especially when the team we would have to go through to get to the WS will theoretically get better by getting 2/5th's (2/3rds of their top 3) SPs back.

 

How does having arguably the 2nd best SP in baseball (top 5 at least I think anyway) not help your Play-off rotation?

 

Are the Sox really closer to the presumptuous designation of World Series contenders? They're in the conversation for "best team in thr AL", but Cleveland is the defending pennant winner and gets back two outstanding starters in Carrasco and Salazar and their best hitter in Michael Brantley. I'm not saying Dombrowski didn't improve this team, but let's not buy our AL Champion tee shirts just yet.

[moonslav59]

Are the Sox really closer to the presumptuous designation of World Series contenders? They're in the conversation for "best team in thr AL", but Cleveland is the defending pennant winner and gets back two outstanding starters in Carrasco and Salazar and their best hitter in Michael Brantley. I'm not saying Dombrowski didn't improve this team, but let's not buy our AL Champion tee shirts just yet.

 

If CLE loses Napoli and doesn't replace him in kind, that will hurt.

 

That CLE rotation and depth looks tough:

 

Kluber, Salazar, Carrasco, Bauer, Tomlin, Merrit & McAllister (RP?)

[Slasher9]

I understand what you are saying and I normally would agree. You can call the eye test fake if you like. In this case, I think that there is likely to be some good competition. So are you sold on having E-Rod start the season in the minors? what would you do?

 

i think i posted this earlier but:

all things being equal (none of the 4 hurt) this is how i start the regular season:

Clay & Pom in the rotation.

Wright long reliever & pinch runner stolen base threat

Erod - AAA

i am fine with limiting erod workload early this season. because: WBC.

[cp176]

i think i posted this earlier but:

all things being equal (none of the 4 hurt) this is how i start the regular season:

Clay & Pom in the rotation.

Wright long reliever & pinch runner stolen base threat

Erod - AAA

i am fine with limiting erod workload early this season. because: WBC.

 

Well - I know that I have posted this probably too many times. I understand this opinion and I respect the opinion. My opinion is different. I would not send E- Rod down based on anything other than how he pitches and whether or not he is injured.