Trade confirmed: Shaw, Dubon, Pennington, to Brewers for RHRP Tyler Thornburg

[Dojji]

http://www.outsidepitchmlb.com/brewers-trade-thornburg-red-sox-shaw/57876

 

The Milwaukee Brewers are keeping the iron hot during the Winter Meetings, making their first major move by trading reliever Tyler Thornburg to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for corner infielder Travis Shaw, Double-A middle infielder Mauricio Dubon and Single-A pitcher Josh Pennington.

 

Thoughts? Personally I think you either have to have a lot of faith in the Panda to get back to form, or have another plan for how you're going to fill the third base position, to make this trade. Obviously DD knows more than we do about both Panda and about prospects for acquiring other professional third sackers so we'll see how that goes.

 

As for Thornburg himself -- looks pretty sexy and I can see exactly why DD wanted him. He's buying high a bit, but that's standard for DD, we just need to accept and understand that that will happen with him at the helm. Relief help is one of the big areas he needed to deal with and this is a step in the right direction. Add a signing of a guy like Luke Hochevar and we can probably go to war with the bullpen we have, especially with Carson Smith slated to return early in the new year. I'm just a little concerned we may have created one hole to fill another depending on how Panda's recovery is going.

[moonslav59]

We have Holt and Hernandez to back-up 3B. Both are probably as good as Shaw, especially vs LHPs- where Pablo struggles most.

 

Who is our back-up 1Bman now?

 

Maybe the next shoe that falls is us acquiring a LH'd hitting corner IF'er at a very low cost.

[Dojji]

Our backup 1B is either Holt (like our backup everything else) or Sam Travis if he has another strong Spring performance.

 

Or... maybe it could be Swihart? His bat is so far ahead of his glove that the temptation to find ways to get that bat into the game any way you can has to be strong.

[Orange Juiced]

Guys in the Sox' system that can play 1b or 3b:

 

Hanley (3b)

Holt (3b/1b)

Panda (3b)

Hernandez (3b)

Devers (3b)

Travis (1b)

Moncada (3b)

 

And rumors are that the Sox are looking to add Mitch Moreland (LHH, can play 1b/RF, hit 22 hr last year), hopefully for not a big price.

 

Obviously Devers, Travis, and Moncada are not yet ready, but they're in the pipeline. I think a 1b/3b/DH situation of Hanley/Panda/Moreland, with Holt and Hernandez there to back it all up, with those three guys waiting in the wings, isn't the worst situation.

[S5Dewey]

 

Who is our back-up 1Bman now?

 

Sam Travis, behind Holt?

 

Damn... I liked the sound of "The Travis Twins" at the corner IF spots, too!

 

Edit.. sorry, Dojji. I was typing while you were posting!

[Dojji]

I think you can scratch Hanley off that list. Just because he used to play there doesn't mean he can do it in his mid 30's. THere's a ton of situations where if it was an option to move Hanley over to 3B, it would have been done. He's strictly a 1B/DH at this point in his career.

[Jack Flap]

Nice deal, IMO. One could argue we gave up a bit much, but good relief pitching will cost you, and Thornburg was really, really good this year. I don't think we gave up anything we'll miss too terribly.

[Dojji]

The only guy we gave up who I'm even worried about is Dubon. And frankly the middle percentile for Dubon is a really good utility man, similar to Alex Cora or Craig Counsell. I think we got a fair deal here, as long as Thornburg is able to repeat his performance in the tougher league.

[S5Dewey]

Has Moncada dropped off our radar as a possibility at 3B?

[Dojji]

He seems a little raw to count on for Opening Day wouldn't you say? We made that mistake with Middlebrooks, rushing him up before he was really fully cooked, let's not do the same with Moncada.

[moonslav59]

Has Moncada dropped off our radar as a possibility at 3B?

 

Pablo will be given a long look at 3B, and if he struggles, Moncada could fill in, if he's ready.

[S5Dewey]

He seems a little raw to count on for Opening Day wouldn't you say? We made that mistake with Middlebrooks, rushing him up before he was really fully cooked, let's not do the same with Moncada.

 

Oh, I agree! It was just that since the Shaw trade Moncado's name hadn't been mentioned. I think Moncado would be a fine 3B on Opening Day... for the Pawsox.

[Dojji]

"Moncada" not "Moncado."

 

And yeah, I'd rather run Holt out there every day at third base than rush Moncada at all. Let him get it right in the minors, THEN call him up.

[S5Dewey]

"Moncada" not "Moncado."

 

And yeah, I'd rather run Holt out there every day at third base than rush Moncada at all. Let him get it right in the minors, THEN call him up.

 

Oops. Those damn vowels always confuse me!

[harmony]

The Milwaukee Brewers sold high on reliever Tyler Thornburg, whom Steamer projects with a 2017 WAR of 0.5 with an ERA of 3.94 in 65 innings:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10688&position=P

 

At the same time, the Red Sox probably sold high on Mauricio Dubon, who posted a gaudy .323/.379/.461/840 line in 549 plate appearances across High A and Double A this season as a 21-year-old shortstop.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=dubon-000mau

 

A good trade should benefit each team. Given each club's needs, that might be accomplished with the trade of five years of Travis Shaw and six years each of Mauricio Dubon and Josh Pennington for three years of Tyler Thornburg.

Edited December 6, 2016 by harmony

[Spudboy]

I guess none of you are concerned that DD may have traded for another Carson Smith?

 

It seems that Thornburg has had elbow problems that he dealt with by having platelet therapy.

 

I hope the deal is contingent on the results of imaging taken by the Sox prior to finalization of the deal.

 

Cost controlled or not, this could be a suck deal if we acquired another broken arm for 1.5 years.

[S5Dewey]

I guess none of you are concerned that DD may have traded for another Carson Smith?

 

It seems that Thornburg has had elbow problems that he dealt with by having platelet therapy.

 

I hope the deal is contingent on the results of imaging taken by the Sox prior to finalization of the deal.

 

Cost controlled or not, this could be a suck deal if we acquired another broken arm for 1.5 years.

 

Yeah. That did occur to me. I guess I just tried to not think about it. It's a real possibility and could be the reason the Brewers were willing to let him go.

 

I'd often wondered what the success rate would be of a team that picked up one of these 'question mark players' every year for short money so they had a rotation of them with one going down while another is coming back each year. Would it be a cheap way to get a quality arm, but having to wait a year or two and pay for the surgery in order to get it?

 

As an aside, I wonder if their health insurance pays for the surgery since it could very well be described as 'elective'.

[OH FOY]

You gamble and sign Holland. If it works, you have something special, if not, cost you money not Prospects.

[harmony]

Boston GM Dave Dombrowski apparently is not reluctant to trade prospects for relievers.

 

Using the SoxProspects rankings, the Red Sox traded No. 4 Manuel Margot, No. 6 Javier Guerra and No. 13 Logan Allen for Craig Kimbrel, No. 15 Pat Light for Fernando Abad and No. 10 Mauricio Dubon in a package for Tyler Thornburg. Carson Smith and Roenis Elias cost the Red Sox only Wade Miley and No. 24 Jonathan Aro.

[OH FOY]

2 years ago Royals took a gamble on Ryan Madson, it worked, he was excellent that season, boost his stock, to sign another good contract. Sox should be looking at something like this with Holland.

[southpaw777]

I love the deal. I have to trust that the brass have it taken care of regarding the medicals.

If not, we will have another Smith situation and then two years of service.

Right now I love the deal. Dubon might be a good regular, but I dont see anything special with him right now. He was blocked anyway. Shaw was expendable and Pennington could be something if he finds some control/command.

Kelly, Barnes, Smith(midseason), Thornburg, Kimbrel...thats a nice back end.

[Dojji]

I guess none of you are concerned that DD may have traded for another Carson Smith?

 

It seems that Thornburg has had elbow problems that he dealt with by having platelet therapy.

 

I hope the deal is contingent on the results of imaging taken by the Sox prior to finalization of the deal.

 

Cost controlled or not, this could be a suck deal if we acquired another broken arm for 1.5 years.

 

Whenever you trade multiple assets for one asset, the breakdown of the asset is a risk you take.

[S5Dewey]

Boston GM Dave Dombrowski apparently is not reluctant to trade prospects for relievers.

 

Using the SoxProspects rankings, the Red Sox traded No. 4 Manuel Margot, No. 6 Javier Guerra and No. 13 Logan Allen for Craig Kimbrel, No. 15 Pat Light for Fernando Abad and No. 10 Mauricio Dubon in a package for Tyler Thornburg. Carson Smith and Roenis Elias cost the Red Sox only Wade Miley and No. 24 Jonathan Aro.

 

The only one of those guys whom I've actually seen pitch other than at ST is Pat Light. I saw him a couple of times in Portland. I was high on him at the time because he was approaching 100 on the gun but had significant control problems. As I said at the time, "He can bring it - he just doesn't know where it's going to go." He's probably one of those players the Sox have given up on with the idea that if someone else can get some good out of him, so be it.

I've seen some of the others play a couple of times in AA but frankly one or two games isn't enough for me to form an opinion of a position player. I tried that with Hanley when he was in Portland. I saw him in only one game where he made two errors and went 1-4 with a double and I decided afterward that he was over-hyped. I guess that's why I'm typing and not scouting.

[southpaw777]

Boston GM Dave Dombrowski apparently is not reluctant to trade prospects for relievers.

 

Using the SoxProspects rankings, the Red Sox traded No. 4 Manuel Margot, No. 6 Javier Guerra and No. 13 Logan Allen for Craig Kimbrel, No. 15 Pat Light for Fernando Abad and No. 10 Mauricio Dubon in a package for Tyler Thornburg. Carson Smith and Roenis Elias cost the Red Sox only Wade Miley and No. 24 Jonathan Aro.

 

Its the way MLB is going with most starters now only going 5-6IP and 100ish pitches, thus the cost of bullpen arms going way up both in $$$ and in trades...The trick is to try and identify the talent and along with some years of control. DD has been very good so far with that. Thornburg looks to be another good find.

Kimbrels contract will be a steal compared to some of these deals the next two years.

I think the choice of prospects to be dealt were good. DD and his team identified their keepers in the system and held onto them. Now he is starting the process of moving the rest for more pressing needs. I expect more moves.

[harmony]

I guess none of you are concerned that DD may have traded for another Carson Smith?

 

It seems that Thornburg has had elbow problems that he dealt with by having platelet therapy.

 

I hope the deal is contingent on the results of imaging taken by the Sox prior to finalization of the deal.

 

Cost controlled or not, this could be a suck deal if we acquired another broken arm for 1.5 years.

Compare the lines for Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg in the season before each reliever's trade to the Red Sox:

 

CS 2015 70 IP, 13 SV, 22 BB, 92 K, 2.31 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 166 OPS+, 2.1 fWAR

TT 2016 67 IP, 13 SV, 25 BB, 90 K, 2.15 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 199 OPS+, 2.0 fWAR

[Hugh2]

The Milwaukee Brewers sold high on reliever Tyler Thornburg, whom Steamer projects with a 2017 WAR of 0.5 with an ERA of 3.94 in 65 innings:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10688&position=P

 

At the same time, the Red Sox probably sold high on Mauricio Dubon, who posted a gaudy .323/.379/.461/840 line in 549 plate appearances across High A and Double A this season as a 21-year-old shortstop.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=dubon-000mau

 

A good trade should benefit each team. Given each club's needs, that might be accomplished with the trade of five years of Travis Shaw and six years each of Mauricio Dubon and Josh Pennington for three years of Tyler Thornburg.

 

I'll take the high on the MLBer than the Milber any day. I think it's more plausible that the established major leaguer repeats his performance. Also, Thornburg pitched a career year at 27 years old. It's not unlikely that pitchers come into their own at that age, much like Andrew Miller or......Rick Porcello.

 

It's kind of Kimbrel-light esq and I'm much happier with the talent they gave up here.

[Hugh2]

I guess none of you are concerned that DD may have traded for another Carson Smith?

 

It seems that Thornburg has had elbow problems that he dealt with by having platelet therapy.

 

I hope the deal is contingent on the results of imaging taken by the Sox prior to finalization of the deal.

 

Cost controlled or not, this could be a suck deal if we acquired another broken arm for 1.5 years.

 

What has Carson Smith ever done wrong? besides having TJ? must pitchers have some kind of injury at some point in his life. I'd be interesting to see what he does this year and next. If he pitches like he did in Seattle we are in for a treat.

[Hugh2]

Boston GM Dave Dombrowski apparently is not reluctant to trade prospects for relievers.

 

Using the SoxProspects rankings, the Red Sox traded No. 4 Manuel Margot, No. 6 Javier Guerra and No. 13 Logan Allen for Craig Kimbrel, No. 15 Pat Light for Fernando Abad and No. 10 Mauricio Dubon in a package for Tyler Thornburg. Carson Smith and Roenis Elias cost the Red Sox only Wade Miley and No. 24 Jonathan Aro.

 

My only problem with this is the state of the system is much different now than it was a year ago. A lot of top talent has either graduated or been traded away. Mauricio Dubon would not be #10. 5 guys that were in front of him were traded last year.

[sk7326]

We have Holt and Hernandez to back-up 3B. Both are probably as good as Shaw, especially vs LHPs- where Pablo struggles most.

 

Who is our back-up 1Bman now?

 

Maybe the next shoe that falls is us acquiring a LH'd hitting corner IF'er at a very low cost.

 

Back up 1B - if that is the only need then who cares?

 

Thornburg struck out 34% of hitters last year. You get his arb years without any real core upside being dealt. Knocks everybody down a peg to Kimbrel and allows them to ease in Carson Smith. Also gives a little flexibility with Uehara - who I'd still throw a 1 year deal at.

[Spudboy]

Compare the lines for Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg in the season before each reliever's trade to the Red Sox:

 

CS 2015 70 IP, 13 SV, 22 BB, 92 K, 2.31 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 166 OPS+, 2.1 fWAR

TT 2016 67 IP, 13 SV, 25 BB, 90 K, 2.15 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 199 OPS+, 2.0 fWAR

 

Gee thanks. But I do not understand what point you are making.