Theo Epstein; Greatest Baseball Executive Ever

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, there have been guys who have created insane dynasties like the Berra led Yankees. But when there is one executive responsible for building 2 different clubs which shattered a total of 194 years of "curses", you get a special wing in Cooperstown. And the guy still looks like he gets carded. I wonder if he moves on to Cleveland in a few years and wins them a title. He could just keep moving to the next most suffering franchise and close curses like real estate agents close houses. The guy is a special talent for finding talent. And the funny thing is, my very first thread on a message board was over at the Herald with the title "The Red Sox Cannot Win With Theo", which came immediately after the Nomar trade

[Bellhorn04]

Some of it is good fortune, but he has definitely achieved something monumental. No other executive in sports history can boast a similar achievement.

[moonslav59]

...And the funny thing is, my very first thread on a message board was over at the Herald with the title "The Red Sox Cannot Win With Theo", which came immediately after the Nomar trade.

 

That is funny. You know what I did after the Nomar trade?

 

I drove to my brother-in-law's house and told him and his friends, "We just made a trade that will win us the World Series!" I kid you not.

 

I felt like Nomar's SS defense was so over-rated and that was all we needed. When I told the guys we traded Nomar for Cabrera, they said, "Who's he?"

 

The rest is history.

 

The thing is, after the Nomar trade, if you look at the total body of Theo's work, it was not great. In my opinion, I think it was actually below average despite the 2007 ring.

[jacksonianmarch]

Slav, he put a franchise that continued to believe in the "wait til next yr" mantra into a position to win a title. They not only won one title, but they won two. I think it is easy for sox fans to forget since you've seen 3 over 12 seasons, but the lack of confidence in Boston when it came to the sox was incredible prior to 2004. Also, a fair amount of his players were center stage in the 2013 title win also. So if you want to demure him in terms of 2004, you need to credit him for 2013.

 

In terms of Chicago, he turned a lovable loser franchise into a dynastic team. He built them from scratch. And this team is mostly young and incredibly deep. He should leave Chicago with more than one title

[moonslav59]

Slav, he put a franchise that continued to believe in the "wait til next yr" mantra into a position to win a title. They not only won one title, but they won two. I think it is easy for sox fans to forget since you've seen 3 over 12 seasons, but the lack of confidence in Boston when it came to the sox was incredible prior to 2004. Also, a fair amount of his players were center stage in the 2013 title win also. So if you want to demure him in terms of 2004, you need to credit him for 2013.

 

In terms of Chicago, he turned a lovable loser franchise into a dynastic team. He built them from scratch. And this team is mostly young and incredibly deep. He should leave Chicago with more than one title

 

I've been a Sox fan since the early 70's. Losing sucked! I used to say, "I'll take 9 last place finished for one ring! Just one ring! f*** all the second place finishes!"

 

Theo deserves a huge pat on the back for ending all that. Sure, Dan D helped some, but Theo made a lot of big moves, including the one I just said "won us a ring"- trading the popular Nomar for little known Cabrera. It was a gitsy trade that brought us our first ring in ages.

 

I'll never forget what he did.

 

That being said, I was not blinded by joy. Theo struggled after that Nomar trade. That doesn't mean he's still not great.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Yes, there have been guys who have created insane dynasties like the Berra led Yankees. But when there is one executive responsible for building 2 different clubs which shattered a total of 194 years of "curses", you get a special wing in Cooperstown. And the guy still looks like he gets carded. I wonder if he moves on to Cleveland in a few years and wins them a title. He could just keep moving to the next most suffering franchise and close curses like real estate agents close houses. The guy is a special talent for finding talent. And the funny thing is, my very first thread on a message board was over at the Herald with the title "The Red Sox Cannot Win With Theo", which came immediately after the Nomar trade

 

I love the idea of Theo roaming around the country fixing baseball teams like some kind of freakishly-young looking Johnny Appleseed. I can imagine some rural high school in Idaho that hasn't won a county championship in 80 years, and Theo just comes strolling out of the woods one day dressed like someone hiking the Appalachian Trail, and lives in a tent in the outfield for a year. Then they win, and he just fades back into the forest.

[Slasher9]

Yes, there have been guys who have created insane dynasties like the Berra led Yankees. But when there is one executive responsible for building 2 different clubs which shattered a total of 194 years of "curses", you get a special wing in Cooperstown. And the guy still looks like he gets carded. I wonder if he moves on to Cleveland in a few years and wins them a title. He could just keep moving to the next most suffering franchise and close curses like real estate agents close houses. The guy is a special talent for finding talent. And the funny thing is, my very first thread on a message board was over at the Herald with the title "The Red Sox Cannot Win With Theo", which came immediately after the Nomar trade

 

take away the unnecessary MFY fan first sentence and the above post is perfect.

 

also: lol @ youk. i can totally picture that!

[Bellhorn04]

...And the funny thing is, my very first thread on a message board was over at the Herald with the title "The Red Sox Cannot Win With Theo", which came immediately after the Nomar trade.

 

That is funny. You know what I did after the Nomar trade?

 

I drove to my brother-in-law's house and told him and his friends, "We just made a trade that will win us the World Series!" I kid you not.

 

I felt like Nomar's SS defense was so over-rated and that was all we needed. When I told the guys we traded Nomar for Cabrera, they said, "Who's he?"

 

The rest is history.

 

The thing is, after the Nomar trade, if you look at the total body of Theo's work, it was not great. In my opinion, I think it was actually below average despite the 2007 ring.

 

That just doesn't make sense. It might if you go through and grade each move from 2005-2011, which is what I think you're doing.

 

I think he should be judged primarily on the team's record, the title, the 2 ALCS appearances, the 4 playoff appearances, the average wins per season, and the state of the team and the farm when he left.

[moonslav59]

That just doesn't make sense. It might if you go through and grade each move from 2005-2011, which is what I think you're doing.

 

I think he should be judged primarily on the team's record, the title, the 2 ALCS appearances, the 4 playoff appearances, the average wins per season, and the state of the team and the farm when he left.

 

The team clearly declined after 2004, despite the win in 2007. Compare the team's of 2004 and 2007 to the team and farm Theo left Ben, and nobody can say they are close.

 

This doesn't mean Theo wasn't great. I wish we got rid of Larry instead.

 

I'm thrilled Theo was our GM. I don't think we win 3 rings without him. I'm eternally grateful, but that doesn't mean I can't point out a downside of his career here.

 

The farm is not even close. Check out the Sox top prospects from 2003 to 2008 and compare it to 2009 to Ben.

 

http://soxprospects.com/history.htm

[Bellhorn04]

The team clearly declined after 2004, despite the win in 2007. Compare the team's of 2004 and 2007 to the team and farm Theo left Ben, and nobody can say they are close.

 

This doesn't mean Theo wasn't great. I wish we got rid of Larry instead.

 

I'm thrilled Theo was our GM. I don't think we win 3 rings without him. I'm eternally grateful, but that doesn't mean I can't point out a downside of his career here.

 

The farm is not even close. Check out the Sox top prospects from 2003 to 2008 and compare it to 2009 to Ben.

 

http://soxprospects.com/history.htm

 

If he was 'below average' for the last 7 years of his 9-year tenure, he can't also have been great.

[moonslav59]

If he was 'below average' for the last 7 years of his 9-year tenure, he can't also have been great.

 

3 rings after getting none for so long, is "great" in my book. He did some very good things after 2004, but when you look at the overall body of his transactions and draft picks after 2004, you can see why the team was worse off when he left here.

 

Now, he got the team to a very high place at the same time having a great farm. That early work set us up for a long term successful period. Getting lower draft picks due to so much winning hurt. Signing limits and restrictions increased. Drafting better players with later picks, because we could pay them more, began to fade away. The reasons for the decline were not always Theo's fault. He also had to deal with Larry L.

 

Theo was great for us, but can anybody honestly say, he left the team and farm at a level even close to 2003-2008 levels? He left a nice base for Ben, no doubt. We couldn't have won in 2013 without Theo's foundation. We weren't horrible, and it's hard to stay as great as we were in 2003-2004 and 2003-2008.

 

[Dojji]

I feel better about your criticisms of DD right now because brother, you have some INSANELY overoptimistic takes about the value of our guys and what we can trade them for.

[moonslav59]

I feel better about your criticisms of DD right now because brother, you have some INSANELY overoptimistic takes about the value of our guys and what we can trade them for.

 

If you're talking to me, I'd like to say that most of the criticism of my suggested trades are on the side that I am offering too much.

 

I often get criticized for not wanting to part with our prospects, which I think is unfounded. My take is that if we are going to trade away top prospects, I'd rather put together a larger package and get someone better.

 

Sometimes I'll opine what it might take to get someone, but it doesn't mean I'd offer it.

 

Take the Sale rumor: many feel it might take JBJ, ERod and maybe an Owens type. I'd rather offer JBJ, Swihart and Devers. Am I over-valuing Swihart and Devers by equating them with ERod & Owens? I bet some would rather give ERod.

 

Look, when you're talking conjecture and trade theory or philosophy, it doesn't always equate to reality. I get that. To say I hated the Esi for Pom trade but was willing to trade Espi & Swihart for something better, it's hard to put a face to the theory, and in many cases, the face that could be found is not someone OI'd trade the two for, so I get it. Really, I do.

 

On DD...

 

I was okay with the Price deal, but hate those types of mega big & long deals. I painstakingly provided all the past similar signings data, and it wasn't pretty. The deal was totally understandable given the dire straights this team was in. I even said that of all the big-named FA pitchers on the market over the last few years, Price seemed like the safest and best investment. So, although I wanted Cueto more, I'm not going to bash DD over Price.

 

I'm not going to rehash the Kimbrel trade again, except to say it looks worse in hindsight than I thought it would. I expected a top 3 closer performance.

 

I'm not going to rehash the Pom trade, except to say I liked Pom, and the injury was something that hurt the hindsight analysis.

 

 

I was highly critical of many Ben moves, but was against getting rid of him. It may seem contradictory, and maybe to some extent I am that way by nature, but I liked Ben's long term goal and plan- much the same way I loved Theo's plan back in 2003. The last place finishes was Ben's ultimate downfall, and I get that. Same with Tito.Managers and GMs are often judged harshly on hindsight. It's the nature of the beast I guess, but for the most part, I really try to stay away from hindsight bashing. I do it up front. When I do look back on a GM's career, I try to look at the full picture. I try not to count unforeseen injuries or declines that much against a GM, but if the general direction of the team was in decline, then I'm not going to lose sleep over that person's departure.

 

Like I said, I wish Theo never left. I did not want him to go, even at the time, but even he admitted, he "had lost sight".

[Kimmi]

Yes, there have been guys who have created insane dynasties like the Berra led Yankees. But when there is one executive responsible for building 2 different clubs which shattered a total of 194 years of "curses", you get a special wing in Cooperstown. And the guy still looks like he gets carded. I wonder if he moves on to Cleveland in a few years and wins them a title. He could just keep moving to the next most suffering franchise and close curses like real estate agents close houses. The guy is a special talent for finding talent. And the funny thing is, my very first thread on a message board was over at the Herald with the title "The Red Sox Cannot Win With Theo", which came immediately after the Nomar trade

 

Theo is THE MAN. He is a baseball genius who understands how to build winning teams. Some of us have been singing his praises since 2004. Others of us (Yankees fans) couldn't admit how great he was until after he left the Red Sox. And still others of us still can't admit how good he is and can't give him the credit he deserves. Why? I don't know.

[Northern Star]

Theo is THE MAN. He is a baseball genius who understands how to build winning teams. Some of us have been singing his praises since 2004. Others of us (Yankees fans) couldn't admit how great he was until after he left the Red Sox. And still others of us still can't admit how good he is and can't give him the credit he deserves. Why? I don't know.

 

Because those people think they know it all and refuse to give credit where it's due.

[moonslav59]

Who's not giving him credit?

[a700hitter]

Who's not giving him credit?

You know ... those phantoms who are blamed for everything.

[Kimmi]

Who's not giving him credit?

 

There are still people who aren't giving him the credit he deserves, probably more on other sites than here. He is arguably the best GM ever.

 

My impression from your posts is that you do not think that highly of him. Yes, you acknowledged the rings, but you also don't seem that impressed with his overall body of work, which is really unparalleled.

 

Where do you think he ranks among GMs? The best? One of the best? Good but nothing great? Meh?

[Kimmi]

You know ... those phantoms who are blamed for everything.

 

You are finally able to see how great Theo is. You should just listen to me from the beginning.

[moonslav59]

There are still people who aren't giving him the credit he deserves, probably more on other sites than here. He is arguably the best GM ever.

 

My impression from your posts is that you do not think that highly of him. Yes, you acknowledged the rings, but you also don't seem that impressed with his overall body of work, which is really unparalleled.

 

Where do you think he ranks among GMs? The best? One of the best? Good but nothing great? Meh?

 

Just because I pointed out that the Sox were in decline during Theo's last years here, a fact he confirms himself and discussed his own mistakes and "loss of sight", does not mean I'm not giving him the "credit he deserves".

 

I get the feeling that some people think that because someone is the greatest, which to me Theo is right now, just mentioning some weak point about that person means you can't think he's the best. Everything is black or white, and no grays are allowed.

 

I'm not a baseball historian. There have been many baseball dynasties over the years. What Theo has done with two a historically losing teams is amazing. As far as I know, nobody else has done that. Maybe this fact alone makes him the greatest of all time. I don't know.

 

I do think he is clearly the best GM over the last 20 years or so and probably longer.

 

I'm not sure why you think I don't think highly of him. Maybe I don't think quite as highly of him as you and others do, because of my belief that the team was in decline since maybe 2004 and certainly 2007. When you're talking a slight but pretty steady decline from a point of greatness that Theo was at the center of, doesn't mean he can't still be viewed as great or the "greatest" or "best". Theo left a good enough foundation for a 2013 win after he left. Clearly, he wasn't terrible or even below average near the end.

 

There are some articles about and interviews with Theo where his last years in Boston are discussed. I'm not sure why I'm being criticized for agreeing with Theo himself.

 

I found this in my documents from long ago. Forgive me, if it is not complete, but I believe these are all of Theo's major deals and signings:

 

Theo (11/25/02 to 10/21/11):

E Bedard for S Fife & others

Aceves, Okajima II, Jenks, D Wheeler, A Miller II, R Hill, Albers FA

Crawford, VTek FA

AGon for Rizzo, Kelly & Fuentes

B Wagner for C Carter

Bogaerts & Iglesias Amateur or Int’l FA

VMart for Masterson & Hagadone

Kotchman for Adam LaRoche

A LaRoche fo Strickland

Smoltz, Penney, Saito, VTek II, Baldelli, N Green, Josh Bard FA

Tazawa FA

Ramon Ramirez for C Crisp

Paul Byrd for Mickey Hall

Jason Bay for Manny Ramirez, Craig Hansen & Brandon Moss

D Aardsma for Willy Mota

B Colon, Timlin, M Lowell & C Schilling FA

Daniel Nava for $1 (FA)

Sean Danielson for Joel Pineiro

Eric Gagne for K Gabbard, David Murphy & E Beltre

JD Drew, Lugo, Okajima, A Castillo, J Pineiro FA

J Lopez for Adam Stern

Kottares for David Wells

Mirabelli for Cla Meredith & Josh Bard

Willy Mo Pena for B Arroyo

JT Snow, Breslow, Alex Gonzo, R Seanez FA

Coco Crisp & D Riske for A Marte, Shoppach & G Moto

M Loretta for Mirabelli

Beckett & Lowell for HanRam, A Sanchez and others

Doubront amateur FA

Renteria, M Clement, Wade Miller, D Wells, Olerud FA

O Cabrera & Mientkiewicz for Garciaparra

Foulke, Reese, F Castillo FA

Bellhorn for ???

Schilling for Fossum, Jorge de la Rosa & B Lyon

Merloni for Miniel

Brandon Lyon & Jeff Suppan for Freddy Sanchez & cash

S Williamson for Dumatrait

Ortiz, Mueller, R. Mendoza, Timlin, C Fox FA

Todd Walker for Thigpen and Blanco

Je Giambi for J Hancock

 

Major Draft Picks (see decline from 2007 to 2010 before great 2011 draft):

2011 Barnes, Swihart, Owens, JBJ, Betts, TShaw (comp picks for losing VMart & Beltre)

2010 Vitek, Brentz, Ranauso, Workman, Cecchini

2009 Fuentes, A Wilson

2008 C Kelly, B Price, S Fife, Weiland, Westmoreland (unfortunate), Lava, Vaz

2007 Hagadone, Middlebrooks, Rizzo (6th round)

2006 Bard, Masterson (beginning of decline)

2005 Ellsbury, Hansen, Buchholz, Lowrie, Bowden

2004 Pedroia, C Meredith

2003 D Murphy, A Alvarez, Papelbon

 

I've answered your question: Theo is the greatest GM since I've followed baseball in the last 60's.

 

Now, answer mine: do you think Theo was doing as well from 2007 to 2011 as he did from 2003 to 2007? How much of a difference do you see? Significant or not?

 

[Bellhorn04]

Major Draft Picks (see decline from 2007 to 2010 before great 2011 draft):

2011 Barnes, Swihart, Owens, JBJ, Betts, TShaw (comp picks for losing VMart & Beltre)

2010 Vitek, Brentz, Ranauso, Workman, Cecchini

2009 Fuentes, A Wilson

2008 C Kelly, B Price, S Fife, Weiland, Westmoreland (unfortunate), Lava, Vaz

2007 Hagadone, Middlebrooks, Rizzo (6th round)

2006 Bard, Masterson (beginning of decline)

2005 Ellsbury, Hansen, Buchholz, Lowrie, Bowden

2004 Pedroia, C Meredith

2003 D Murphy, A Alvarez, Papelbon

 

I've answered your question: Theo is the greatest GM since I've followed baseball in the last 60's.

 

Now, answer mine: do you think Theo was doing as well from 2007 to 2011 as he did from 2003 to 2007? How much of a difference do you see? Significant or not?

 

 

If you add in the signing of Bogaerts in 2009, the 2008-2011 acquisitions make a fairly strong group, in spite of some very weak drafts.

[Kimmi]

Just because I pointed out that the Sox were in decline during Theo's last years here, a fact he confirms himself and discussed his own mistakes and "loss of sight", does not mean I'm not giving him the "credit he deserves".

 

I get the feeling that some people think that because someone is the greatest, which to me Theo is right now, just mentioning some weak point about that person means you can't think he's the best. Everything is black or white, and no grays are allowed.

 

Fair enough Moon. I got a different impression when I read your previous posts, but if you think he is clearly the best GM in the last 20 years and probably longer, I'm good with that.

 

IMO, Theo was being very gracious with most of the stuff that he said in the interviews after leaving. He was not going to blame Lucchino for everything that turned bad. He took responsibility for it, though IMO, the blame does lie with Lucchino.

 

Theo has been very clear with his team building philosophy. Theo and Lucchino have clearly butted heads many times. Many of the moves that turned out badly were due to the heavy hand of Lucchino wanting to make a splashy move. Maybe Theo allowed to get himself caught up with it, but I very much doubt those moves would have happened if Lucchino were not around.

 

To answer your question, the 'quality or work' probably was not quite as strong in the latter years as it was in the earlier years, but I wouldn't call it a significant difference. Again, I think Lucchino is largely responsible for that, which is why Theo wanted to leave.

[moonslav59]

Fair enough Moon. I got a different impression when I read your previous posts, but if you think he is clearly the best GM in the last 20 years and probably longer, I'm good with that.

 

IMO, Theo was being very gracious with most of the stuff that he said in the interviews after leaving. He was not going to blame Lucchino for everything that turned bad. He took responsibility for it, though IMO, the blame does lie with Lucchino.

 

Theo has been very clear with his team building philosophy. Theo and Lucchino have clearly butted heads many times. Many of the moves that turned out badly were due to the heavy hand of Lucchino wanting to make a splashy move. Maybe Theo allowed to get himself caught up with it, but I very much doubt those moves would have happened if Lucchino were not around.

 

To answer your question, the 'quality or work' probably was not quite as strong in the latter years as it was in the earlier years, but I wouldn't call it a significant difference. Again, I think Lucchino is largely responsible for that, which is why Theo wanted to leave.

 

I'm not a big Larry fan and never was. I heard people say it was him who got us Schilling and Beckett/Lowell, but I'm not sure what to believe.

 

Here's a good read:

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2012/06/13/how-success-bred-monster-theo-epstein-consider

 

Here's a memorable quote from the article:

 

“Had we been completely true to our baseball philosophy that we set out and believed in and followed, we probably wouldn't have made certain moves that we made anyway, moves that, as I look back on them, they were probably moves too much of convenience, of placating elements that shouldn't have been important,” said Epstein. “Those were my mistakes, and because of that the last couple of years weren't as successful as the previous seven or so.”

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Even the most successful people make mistakes. The important thing is how you respond and learn from them. Epstein got you over the hump, and while he is blamed for a "decline" you won another title 3 years after the first one. I think most every team in baseball will sign up for that kind of "decline".

[Kimmi]

I'm not a big Larry fan and never was. I heard people say it was him who got us Schilling and Beckett/Lowell, but I'm not sure what to believe.

 

Here's a good read:

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2012/06/13/how-success-bred-monster-theo-epstein-consider

 

Here's a memorable quote from the article:

 

“Had we been completely true to our baseball philosophy that we set out and believed in and followed, we probably wouldn't have made certain moves that we made anyway, moves that, as I look back on them, they were probably moves too much of convenience, of placating elements that shouldn't have been important,” said Epstein. “Those were my mistakes, and because of that the last couple of years weren't as successful as the previous seven or so.”

 

 

None of us knows for sure who was responsible for which moves, but if you take into consideration the philosophy and the goals of Theo versus Lucchino, some moves just have Lucchino written all over them. I remain convinced that both Theo and Ben could have done even better jobs if Lucchino didn't butt his nose into baseball ops.

[Kimmi]

Even the most successful people make mistakes. The important thing is how you respond and learn from them. Epstein got you over the hump, and while he is blamed for a "decline" you won another title 3 years after the first one. I think most every team in baseball will sign up for that kind of "decline".

 

I also think most teams/fans would sign up for one championship ring every four years, even if the other 3 years are last place finishes. Especially when those last place finishes were rather fluky. None of those teams, talent-wise, should have been that bad.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox lost a lot when Pedro left in 2005. Not that Pedro was anything special 05 and on, but he was dynamic even as he slowed a bit in 2004. Plus with Schill on the mend and in your pen, 05 didn't really give you a shot. The 07 team was good, not great. They got hot at the right time. The offense had Lowell and Papi in prime status, but Manny declined a bit. The rotation had Beckett and Schill, but a fluky year from Wake and DiceK made it look better. You did have a shutdown pen. To be totally honest, the teams you had in 03 and 04 were way better than the 07 and 13 variety. 2013 was as fluky as one could get

[Bellhorn04]

The sox lost a lot when Pedro left in 2005. Not that Pedro was anything special 05 and on, but he was dynamic even as he slowed a bit in 2004. Plus with Schill on the mend and in your pen, 05 didn't really give you a shot. The 07 team was good, not great. They got hot at the right time. The offense had Lowell and Papi in prime status, but Manny declined a bit. The rotation had Beckett and Schill, but a fluky year from Wake and DiceK made it look better. You did have a shutdown pen. To be totally honest, the teams you had in 03 and 04 were way better than the 07 and 13 variety. 2013 was as fluky as one could get

 

The 07 team had a +210 run differential, better than both the 03 and 04 teams.

[Kimmi]

The sox lost a lot when Pedro left in 2005. Not that Pedro was anything special 05 and on, but he was dynamic even as he slowed a bit in 2004. Plus with Schill on the mend and in your pen, 05 didn't really give you a shot. The 07 team was good, not great. They got hot at the right time. The offense had Lowell and Papi in prime status, but Manny declined a bit. The rotation had Beckett and Schill, but a fluky year from Wake and DiceK made it look better. You did have a shutdown pen. To be totally honest, the teams you had in 03 and 04 were way better than the 07 and 13 variety. 2013 was as fluky as one could get

 

Nope, not fluky at all.

 

2014 and 2015 were the fluky seasons. Both teams did far worse than they should have.

[Bellhorn04]

2013 was a bit fluky on the pitching side, considering that in 2012 Buchholz had the best ERA on the staff at 4.56, and the only addition we made was Dempster.