A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

i saw all that after i posted. apologies!

you never used the term. i can confirm that.

anyways, i dont know why it's even a big deal. im a diehard Pats fan going back to the Steve Grogan days. i sat through my 1-15 seasons. since the 21st century the Patriots are a true dynasty. apparently fans and the NFL dislike modern dynasties so will do and say what they can to knock us down a rung or two. that's fine. that means we are on top. all good.

 

You guys deserve all the acclaim. It's not easy staying that good for all these years in an era of parity.

 

Someone asked why people hate the Pats.

 

It's the same with the Yanks: you guys win too much!

 

Best of luck, until you meet my Pack.

 

FEAR the PACK!

 

[S5Dewey]

i saw all that after i posted. apologies!

you never used the term. i can confirm that.

anyways, i dont know why it's even a big deal. im a diehard Pats fan going back to the Steve Grogan days. i sat through my 1-15 seasons. since the 21st century the Patriots are a true dynasty. apparently fans and the NFL dislike modern dynasties so will do and say what they can to knock us down a rung or two. that's fine. that means we are on top. all good.

 

My memories of those 1-15 seasons go back to one person - Beasley Reece. Every time I think of him and those seasons I shudder.

 

I mean, it's bad enough that the team sucked. Why did we also draw the worst announcer ever to broadcast an NFL game? I don't care how bad a team is, NO FAN deserves to have a team that bad PLUS have Reese announce their games.

[moonslav59]

Never.

 

It's not a sign of weakness to admit when you are wrong.

 

Quite the opposite, in fact.

[moonslav59]

My memories of those 1-15 seasons go back to one person - Beasley Reece. Every time I think of him and those seasons I shudder.

 

I mean, it's bad enough that the team sucked. Why did we also draw the worst announcer ever to broadcast an NFL game? I don't care how bad a team is, NO FAN deserves to have a team that bad PLUS have Reese announce their games.

 

My Packers went through a very long stretch of pathetic play. The Reggie White signing turned things around.

[moonslav59]

Back to Sox baseball...

 

Now that teams are signing their arb players before reaching the arbs, here's a look at our team leading 10 arb players (with MLBTR's arb estimates):

 

Red Sox (10)

 

Fernando Abad (5.073) – $2.0MM

Robbie Ross Jr. (4.100) – $1.8MM

Joe Kelly (4.029) – $2.6MM

Drew Pomeranz (4.013) – $4.7MM

Tyler Thornburg (3.057) – $2.2MM

Brock Holt (3.052) – $1.7MM

Xander Bogaerts (3.042) – $5.7MM

**Brandon Workman (3.018) – $600K

Jackie Bradley Jr. (2.150) – $3.3MM

Sandy Leon (2.149) – $1.3MM

 

The Mets also have 10 arbs and I think a couple teams have 9 players.

 

**Workman already signed for $635K.

 

More signings today almost all are below the MLBTR projections.

[Emp9]

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/13747-Official-NFL-thread

 

See for yourself: I never used the word "cheatriots".

 

I answered a question about why people hate the Patriots, and as a Packer fan, my reply upset the sensitivities of Patriots fans rather like Yankee fans get twisted up when we say they "bought championships" or call them "cheaters".

 

I never said "cheatriots" but somebody here is still sticking to his delusion.

 

I believe you man. I should check to see if there's a good Celtics board/thread on here. I'd like to catch up on some NBA actually, with Isiah Thomas playing like a madman. Seems like a good reason as any to start paying attention again. I'm even less of a casual fan with the NFL.

[Emp9]

More signings today almost all are below the MLBTR projections.

 

Bogaerts & JBJ better take care of their boy Mookie. Some surf & turf dinners may be appropriate

[harmony]

Drew Pomeranz ($5.7 million) and the Red Sox ($3.6 million) have the widest difference in arbitration filings among those listed by MLB Trade Rumors at 8:10 pm EST:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/2017-arbitration-filing-numbers.html

 

MLB Trade Rumors had projected Pomeranz with a 2017 arbitration salary of $4.7 million.

 

Lefthander Fernando Abad filed at $2.7 million and the Red Sox at $2 million. MLBTR projected the latter figure.

 

Agreements include Xander Bogaerts $4.5 million, Jackie Bradley $3.6 million, Joe Kelly $2.8 million, Tyler Thornburg $2.05 million, Brock Holt $1.95 million, Robbie Ross $1.82 million and Sandy Leon $1.3 million:

 

Edited January 14, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Drew Pomeranz ($5.7 million) and the Red Sox ($3.6 million) have the widest difference in arbitration filings among those listed by MLB Trade Rumors at 8:10 pm EST:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/2017-arbitration-filing-numbers.html

 

MLB Trade Rumors had projected Pomeranz with a 2017 arbitration salary of $4.7 million.

 

Lefthander Fernando Abad filed at $2.7 million and the Red Sox at $2 million. MLBTR projected the latter figure.

 

Agreements include Xander Bogaerts $4.5 million, Jackie Bradley $3.6 million, Joe Kelly $2.8 million, Tyler Thornburg $2.05 million, Brock Holt $1.95 million, Robbie Ross $1.82 million and Sandy Leon $1.3 million:

 

 

Thanks for the info.

 

Red Sox Avoid Arbitration With Bradley, Bogaerts, Five Others

By Steve Adams | January 13, 2017 at 4:12pm CDT

 

Adding to their previously reported deals, the Red Sox have announced agreement with all but two of their arb-eligible players. Salaries were reported by MLB.com’s Ian Browne for the players avoiding arb: shortstop Xander Bogaerts gets $4.5MM ($5.7MM projection), utilityman Brock Holt receives $1.95MM ($1.7MM projection), righty Joe Kelly will earn $2.8MM ($2.6MM projection), catcher Sandy Leon takes home $1.3MM (the same as his projection), lefty Robbie Ross gets $1.825MM (just $25K over his projection), and new righty Tyler Thornburg will earn $2.05MM (just under his $2.2MM projection).

The Red Sox and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $3.6MM, tweets Crasnick. Bradley, 27 in April, enjoyed far and away his best big league season in 2016, hitting .267/.349/.486 with 26 home runs, nine steals and brilliant defense. He topped his $3.3MM projection by $300K and will be arbitration-eligible three more times as a Super Two player before hitting free agency upon completion of the 2020 season.

 

Luxury tax implications as compared to projections:

 

Bogey +$1.200M

Thorn +$.195M

+$1.395M

 

JBJ -$.300M

Holt -$.295M

Kelly -$.200M

Ross -$.025M

Leon (same)

-0.820M

 

Net: +575K added to our flex spending budget

 

Still have Pom and Abad to go.

 

Edited January 14, 2017 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

Recent question concerning the Sox was what happens if Castillo makes a big step forward this season. He was hitting .392 this winter and some are saying having his relatives around and a child may have changed his outlook. I believe he is in the 3rd year of a 7 year contract for around $10 million a year. It is doubtful that he would make the 40 man roster this season due to the salary cap, but if he really comes along, he might find a place in the outfield in one of his remaining years. Young would possibly be gone next year but $10 million is a lot for a reserve player. If Panda can earn a second chance due to the money owed, possibly Castillo could be reconsidered as well.

[Emp9]

I don't remember the Sox going to an actual arbitration hearing save for once over the last decade. It's pretty rare things get that far

[moonslav59]

Recent question concerning the Sox was what happens if Castillo makes a big step forward this season. He was hitting .392 this winter and some are saying having his relatives around and a child may have changed his outlook. I believe he is in the 3rd year of a 7 year contract for around $10 million a year. It is doubtful that he would make the 40 man roster this season due to the salary cap, but if he really comes along, he might find a place in the outfield in one of his remaining years. Young would possibly be gone next year but $10 million is a lot for a reserve player. If Panda can earn a second chance due to the money owed, possibly Castillo could be reconsidered as well.

 

If we could have done what we did with Castillo to Pablo, we would have already.

 

Castillo would have to make himself into a can't miss player to even be considered for adding to the 40 man roster.

 

He's in purgatory.

[moonslav59]

I don't remember the Sox going to an actual arbitration hearing save for once over the last decade. It's pretty rare things get that far

 

Anybody know what DD's arb philosophy was with DET?

[Nick]

Anybody know what DD's arb philosophy was with DET?

 

Trade them before they get to arb? jk

[Bellhorn04]

If we could have done what we did with Castillo to Pablo, we would have already.

 

Castillo would have to make himself into a can't miss player to even be considered for adding to the 40 man roster.

 

He's in purgatory.

 

He's in purgatory, but he can console himself with the thought that he'll be paid about 50 million dollars to be there between now and 2020.

[notin]

If we could have done what we did with Castillo to Pablo, we would have already.

 

Castillo would have to make himself into a can't miss player to even be considered for adding to the 40 man roster.

 

He's in purgatory.

 

I have to think Castillo's career in Boston is over.

 

At his salary, the mere act of adding him to the 40-man roster pushes the Sox ip against the limit. His best hope is to be traded in a bad contract swap to a team that needs a CF (Mets?) and has a player on a short deal they want to move whose salary would pushthe Sox to or over the limit such thst the tax they paid would be less than tthey're paying Castillo (Jay Bruce?)

 

This deal might have more potential if Bruce wasn't awful. ..

[notin]

I don't remember the Sox going to an actual arbitration hearing save for once over the last decade. It's pretty rare things get that far

 

Pomeranz looks ready to break that streak.

[moonslav59]

He's in purgatory, but he can console himself with the thought that he'll be paid about 50 million dollars to be there between now and 2020.

 

Shows you how much money dominates.

 

If he really wanted to play MLB, wouldn't he try to renegotiate his contract (downward)?

 

Perhaps the union (or by-laws) wouldn't let him.

[moonslav59]

I have to think Castillo's career in Boston is over.

 

At his salary, the mere act of adding him to the 40-man roster pushes the Sox ip against the limit. His best hope is to be traded in a bad contract swap to a team that needs a CF (Mets?) and has a player on a short deal they want to move whose salary would pushthe Sox to or over the limit such thst the tax they paid would be less than tthey're paying Castillo (Jay Bruce?)

 

This deal might have more potential if Bruce wasn't awful. ..

 

The Sox could add him to the 40 man roster, call him up for a month or so, and then DFA him again (taking him off the 40 man roster once again). His luxury tax cost would be a lot, but not so much that it couldn't be absorbed by flex budget.

 

It seems easier to just find the next de Aza, if we need one, but if Castillo has an 1.100 OPS at AAA in June...

[notin]

Shows you how much money dominates.

 

If he really wanted to play MLB, wouldn't he try to renegotiate his contract (downward)?

 

Perhaps the union (or by-laws) wouldn't let him.

 

The union does frown on downward restructuring. This is a good thing because it kept A-Rod off the Red Sox...

[moonslav59]

The union does frown on downward restructuring. This is a good thing because it kept A-Rod off the Red Sox...

 

That indeed.

[Kimmi]

Recent question concerning the Sox was what happens if Castillo makes a big step forward this season. He was hitting .392 this winter and some are saying having his relatives around and a child may have changed his outlook. I believe he is in the 3rd year of a 7 year contract for around $10 million a year. It is doubtful that he would make the 40 man roster this season due to the salary cap, but if he really comes along, he might find a place in the outfield in one of his remaining years. Young would possibly be gone next year but $10 million is a lot for a reserve player. If Panda can earn a second chance due to the money owed, possibly Castillo could be reconsidered as well.

 

It's really a shame about the position that Castillo is in. I can't see him being able to work his way onto the 40 man roster this year. Maybe next year. At any rate, Castillo has a lot more to do to prove himself deserving of even being considered.

 

I am encouraged by Alex Cora's perception of Castillo's outlook and attitude. I am pulling for the guy.

[harmony]

Pablo Sandoval gives cryotherapy a try:

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/01/pablo_sandoval_boston_red_sox_11.html#incart_river_index

[moonslav59]

It's really a shame about the position that Castillo is in. I can't see him being able to work his way onto the 40 man roster this year. Maybe next year. At any rate, Castillo has a lot more to do to prove himself deserving of even being considered.

 

I am encouraged by Alex Cora's perception of Castillo's outlook and attitude. I am pulling for the guy.

 

Even though our luxury tax may be reset for next year, arb raises and one or two acquisitions will put us over the limit and in tax territory. Although the tax won't be too high, adding anything to Castillo's already high salary will just about always keep him off the 40 man roster for any extended time.

[Bellhorn04]

It's really a shame about the position that Castillo is in. I can't see him being able to work his way onto the 40 man roster this year. Maybe next year. At any rate, Castillo has a lot more to do to prove himself deserving of even being considered.

 

I am encouraged by Alex Cora's perception of Castillo's outlook and attitude. I am pulling for the guy.

 

If Castillo plays up to a true major league level, he'll get out of purgatory one way or the other.

[moonslav59]

Pablo Sandoval gives cryotherapy a try:

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/01/pablo_sandoval_boston_red_sox_11.html#incart_river_index

 

Probably a waste of time and money.

[Kimmi]

Even though our luxury tax may be reset for next year, arb raises and one or two acquisitions will put us over the limit and in tax territory. Although the tax won't be too high, adding anything to Castillo's already high salary will just about always keep him off the 40 man roster for any extended time.

 

I'm not so sure about that. There are a lot of other things that would have to happen, like Castillo playing very well and the team having an opening for him, but if the situation arises next year where Castillo could help the team, I don't think the FO would mind going over the tax limit if they reset this year.

[notin]

Pablo Sandoval gives cryotherapy a try:

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/01/pablo_sandoval_boston_red_sox_11.html#incart_river_index

 

Is this even news? Don't most athletes do this stuff?

[moonslav59]

I'm not so sure about that. There are a lot of other things that would have to happen, like Castillo playing very well and the team having an opening for him, but if the situation arises next year where Castillo could help the team, I don't think the FO would mind going over the tax limit if they reset this year.

 

He'd have to not only be doing great in AAA, Sox scouts and management would have to view those numbers (skills) as being transferable to MLB at a value equal to or more than his luxury tax cost, which is $10.4M.

 

It's not impossible, but I see us trying to find the next de Aza at a fraction of Castillo's cost. I don't see us ever bringing Castillo onto the 40 man roster, except for a brief time in a pinch. With Young, Swihart and Holt ahead of him, IMO, there would have to be some wild things happening for Rusney to be called up.

 

[notin]

He'd have to not only be doing great in AAA, Sox scouts and management would have to view those numbers (skills) as being transferable to MLB at a value equal to or more than his luxury tax cost, which is $10.4M.

 

It's not impossible, but I see us trying to find the next de Aza at a fraction of Castillo's cost. I don't see us ever bringing Castillo onto the 40 man roster, except for a brief time in a pinch. With Young, Swihart and Holt ahead of him, IMO, there would have to be some wild things happening for Rusney to be called up.

 

 

As of now, even Bryce Brentz is in front of Castillo. ..