2016 MLB Draft Thread.

[Hugh2]

In general I shy away from starting threads but it is almost draft day and prospects are my favorite subject. Here is some relevant information leading up, feel free to add some analysts, articles, mock drafts, conversation, and hopes and desires.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-4-0/#05R41kJm2qygLr0l.97

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/6/6/11837308/2016-minor-league-ball-mock-draft

 

http://www.halosheaven.com/2016/6/3/11848308/2016-mlb-draft-consensus-rankings-2-0

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/181759132/mlb-mock-draft-puk-senzel-lewis-are-top-3

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/insider/post?id=2754

 

 

From what I've gathered this is a generally strong draft compared to recent years yet it seems to be lacking a lot strong college pitching at the top and seems to be flush with a lot of high upside high school arms at the top. Of course, the last week leading up to the draft there are usually a few names that come flying up the draft boards and some college players get pushed to the top.

[Emp9]

Sweet. Thanks Hugh. I was actually looking for this thread earlier this morning and contemplated starting one. Glad i didn't. Was ill prepared. Only thing i can add at the moment is the usual: Draft the best player, can't draft based on need necessarily.

[Slasher9]

as with every year...i look forward to your post draft analysis Hugh. you are without a doubt the minor league "expert" in my world.....

[Hugh2]

Oh no, I'm no expert guys. I just love following the soxprospects and read soxprospects.com and baseball america all the time. I'd like to consider myself a well informed fan of the minor leagues.

[Spudboy]

Sweet. Thanks Hugh. I was actually looking for this thread earlier this morning and contemplated starting one. Glad i didn't. Was ill prepared. Only thing i can add at the moment is the usual: Draft the best player, can't draft based on need necessarily.

 

This, of course, makes all the sense in the world. Especially since so many draftees will be high school kids.

 

But, what if, say, the Sox put an emphasis on pitching and draft a disproportionate number of arms?

 

I realize these will still be 4-5 years away from being MLB ready if ever at all so there would be no immediate benefit to the Sox current or near term.

 

But what if they selected 4-5 pitchers?

[Hugh2]

This, of course, makes all the sense in the world. Especially since so many draftees will be high school kids.

 

But, what if, say, the Sox put an emphasis on pitching and draft a disproportionate number of arms?

 

I realize these will still be 4-5 years away from being MLB ready if ever at all so there would be no immediate benefit to the Sox current or near term.

 

But what if they selected 4-5 pitchers?

 

I don't think draft the best player available and focus on pitching need to necessarily be mutually exclusive. I think the further you move past the #1 pick the more fluidity there is between players and teams probably have draft boards that are tiered. Also, remember pitchers are generally 1/2 of the players that are going to be drafted and on your roster. The Sox will easily take 18-20 arms this weekend.

[Spudboy]

I don't think draft the best player available and focus on pitching need to necessarily be mutually exclusive. I think the further you move past the #1 pick the more fluidity there is between players and teams probably have draft boards that are tiered. Also, remember pitchers are generally 1/2 of the players that are going to be drafted and on your roster. The Sox will easily take 18-20 arms this weekend.

 

Wow. I wasn't thinking about it that way.

[Slasher9]

hopefully there are a couple aces in that mix!!!

[Jack Flap]

Thanks for the links, Hugh. I'll definitely have this page open Thursday night.

[Hugh2]

Can't forget Soxprospects, they have excellent draft coverage.

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/06/2016-red-sox-draft-preview.html

 

And I would highly recommend their draft preview podcast that I just finished as well.

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/06/podcast-ep-98-2016-draft-preview-with.html

 

It's an easier listen if you download it on stitcher or itunes.

[mvp 78]

Spud, even if they spent the first 10 rounds only drafting arms, how many of them would actually pan out? The Sox have a poor history of developing pitchers. It seems like they are more adept at developing positional players. I'd say keep drafting the best players and use them as trade bait for pitching...

[User Name]

That's what the Cubs have done. Focus on their org strength (developing position players) and find other avenues for pitching (4/5ths of their rotation are trade/FA guys).

[Hugh2]

I do generally believe a lot of their failure to develop pitching is just the fact that overall it is really hard to draft and develop good pitching and probably a dose of bad luck as well as they've done great overall drafting and developing talent. However, they do seem to be better at position players, so something could be said about focusing on what you're good at.

 

As I said before, generally it is harder to draft and develop pitching. And while the Sox have failed at this, they've had a lot of guys who worked their way up but just couldn't make that last leap. Some of it was due to injuries like Brandon Workman and Brian Johnson(although I saw workman as a bullpen arm and Johnson as a BOTRS) They've traded promising guys like Logan Allen, and some have turned out to be felons like Cody Kukuk. Also, while they don't have TORS potential you can't close the book on someone like Owens being a decent MLB starter if he can improve his command and Barnes looks like he can be a guy in the pen. Still their record at developing pitchers lately leaves a lot to be desired.

 

There is also this.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/what-draft-history-tells-us-about-phillies-best-bet/#O6Rkgj32qOGi3xk7.97

 

Still I think if you have a draft process overall that works, you stick to it. If they get to the 12th pick and someone like Jason Groome is there and they really believe in him, I say take him. But if recent success is any influence coupled with DD's taste for college players in tough conferences I can see a guy like ZacK Collins, or Nick Burdi being their pick.

 

Even with the strength of HS talent in this draft, There's always talent at the top and with DD's record of loving college guys at the top someone they like in a college program might fall to them.

Edited June 7, 2016 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh
me no speel gewd.

[mvp 78]

That's what the Cubs have done. Focus on their org strength (developing position players) and find other avenues for pitching (4/5ths of their rotation are trade/FA guys).

 

f*** the Cubs.

[User Name]

I do generally believe a lot of their failure to develop pitching is just the fact that overall it is really hard to draft and develop good pitching and probably a dose of bad luck as well as they've done great overall drafting and developing talent. However, they do seem to be better at position players, so something could be said about focusing on what you're good at.

 

As I said before, generally it is harder to draft and develop pitching. And while the Sox have failed at this, they've had a lot of guys who worked their way up but just couldn't make that last leap. Some of it was due to injuries like Brandon Workman and Brian Johnson(although I saw workman as a bullpen arm and Johnson as a BOTRS) They've traded promising guys like Logan Allen, and some have turned out to be felons like Cody Kukuk. Also, while they don't have TORS potential you can't close the book on someone like Owens being a decent MLB starter if he can improve his command and Barnes looks like he can be a guy in the pen. Still their record at developing pitchers lately leaves a lot to be desired.

 

There is also this.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/what-draft-history-tells-us-about-phillies-best-bet/#O6Rkgj32qOGi3xk7.97

 

Still I think if you have a draft process overall that works, you stick to it. If they get to the 12th pick and someone like Jason Groome is there and they really believe in him, I say take him. But if recent success is any influence coupled with DD's taste for college players in tough conferences I can see a guy like ZacK Collins, or Nick Burdi being their pick.

 

Even with the strength of HS talent in this draft, There's always talent at the top and with DD's record of loving college guys at the top someone they like in a college program might fall to them.

 

Excellent points.

[mvp 78]

Given that DUMBrowski is the new guy here, it will be interesting to see if the draft strategy is tweaked at all. There haven't been any substantial scouting changes, have there?

[Hugh2]

Given that DUMBrowski is the new guy here, it will be interesting to see if the draft strategy is tweaked at all. There haven't been any substantial scouting changes, have there?

 

I think the further down the draft you move the more it's about the scouting department and scouts. DD probably heavily influences the first pick or two and after that it's all the system.

 

A lot of that comes from some of the insight from Baseball Americas J.J. Cooper.

[Spudboy]

Spud, even if they spent the first 10 rounds only drafting arms, how many of them would actually pan out? The Sox have a poor history of developing pitchers. It seems like they are more adept at developing positional players. I'd say keep drafting the best players and use them as trade bait for pitching...

 

I was not advocating for drafting only pitchers. I was just thinking aloud.

[mvp 78]

I was not advocating for drafting only pitchers. I was just thinking aloud.

 

I'm not saying you were. I was just saying even if they were allocate more picks towards pitching, the recent track record leads me to believe that they'd probably struggle to develop those guys.

[mvp 78]

http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/10594352-74/taillon-pirates-league

 

Spud, the Pirates went crazy on pitching from 2009 - 2011. Would you be happy if the Sox had the same results?

[Spudboy]

http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/10594352-74/taillon-pirates-league

 

Spud, the Pirates went crazy on pitching from 2009 - 2011. Would you be happy if the Sox had the same results?

 

No, I guess.

 

I just wonder about such things.

 

It probably comes down to scouting and luck. Especially with high school players.

[mvp 78]

http://pittsburgh.pirates.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=pit&year=2009

 

http://pittsburgh.pirates.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=pit&year=2010

 

http://pittsburgh.pirates.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=pit&year=2011

 

When you look at the draft results, I'm not chomping at the bit to do what Pittsburgh did. Cole is fantastic, but Glasnow and Taillon are still unproven.

[Jack Flap]

http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/10594352-74/taillon-pirates-league

 

Spud, the Pirates went crazy on pitching from 2009 - 2011. Would you be happy if the Sox had the same results?

 

I might have misunderstood this post, but I sure wouldn't quibble with having a few guys like Cole, Taillon, and Glasnow in our system.

[mvp 78]

I might have misunderstood this post, but I sure wouldn't quibble with having a few guys like Cole, Taillon, and Glasnow in our system.

 

Sure, but the 2009 draft appeared to be a complete bust. Pitchers also take a little time to develop, so the Sox wouldn't see the fruits of this draft until they're on the next GM. It was a high risk/high reward opportunity for the Pirates, but only one guy has provided much value so far.

 

Also, I'm not saying it was a wrong or right choice. I was just trying to add to the conversation.

[a700hitter]

Tailon has been dominating AAA this season and will make his 2016 debut with the Pirates on Wednesday.

[Hugh2]

Top talent Delvin Perez failed a drug test and may slip out of the top ten, and first round altogether.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/perez-shelby-fail-mlsb-drug-tests-2/#gLYEVwxuhqSVBrTt.97

[Hugh2]

I think I still take our 2011 draft over the Pirates 2011 AND 2010 draft.

[Kingface]

Top talent Delvin Perez failed a drug test and may slip out of the top ten, and first round altogether.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/perez-shelby-fail-mlsb-drug-tests-2/#gLYEVwxuhqSVBrTt.97

 

Great thread Hugh!

 

I'd take a chance on him. He's been mentioned at going anywhere from 7 to 2 and is regarded as the best IF prospect in the draft. I also like Manning. He's a top 10 prospect but will fall because of his high price tag.

[Hugh2]

Great thread Hugh!

 

I'd take a chance on him. He's been mentioned at going anywhere from 7 to 2 and is regarded as the best IF prospect in the draft. I also like Manning. He's a top 10 prospect but will fall because of his high price tag.

 

I'm very intrigued to see who we draft because if you're looking at talent alone this is a VERY highschool heavy draft. But teams are generally very uncomfortable with that and that is showing itself in a lot of college players moving up on the mock drafts the last couple weeks. Mock drafts change so much this time of year not so much because the consensus on talent is moving (but it is) but I think a lot of it has to do with scouts hearing rumors about what team is looking at who.

 

If that holds true, then a lot of that HS talent that was projected to go top 10 maybe even top 5 will fall. But DD has a reputation of LOVING proven college guys in the first round so we might reach back for a guy who was projected in the 15-20 area. If we do, I hope we are able to at least get a guy under slot and spread that money around. I've heard good things about the depth of this draft. Still, I'd like to see them take the BPA but sometimes it isn't that simple.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hugh, Perez is the guy I want the Yankees to select. Up to that point, I wanted a college power arm like Sheffield or Quantrill, but when a guy who could go #2 drops back on a failed drug test, I want that guy to move to the top of the draft board.