Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[Dojji]

To break that down a bit, Shaw provided a LOT of value with his glove, to make up for his increasingly soggy bat. Shaw was good for 1.4 dWAR at third base. That's actually very very good, anything more than 1 dWAR is very very solid defensive play at the position, especially considering some of us (myself included) were concerned about his ability to play 3B full time. Travis Shaw got it done with the glove all year, even when the bat was failing him, and even though 3B is a corner infield position, the glove still matters there. A lot.

 

Travis didn't have much of an offensive result at the end of the day at 3B, he was the worst *offensive* 3B who played full time, BUT!!!!!! he hit well enough that his excellent defense played positively for us. That's just about the opposite of how we expected the narrative to go with Shaw this year but hey, that's baseball. If he can make some offseason adjustments and get that bat going a little more consistently, Shaw's going to be a major asset next year.

[moonslav59]

By looking at and dissecting all possible statistics, if Shaw looks like the worst third baseman in the game, that tells me that all of the others aren't bad. It's not as though this young man gave us 0. If he returns as our third baseman it does not foretell impending doom for our team.

 

That's true, but normally the best way to improve your team is to start with the weakest positions and seek to make them much better. With Moncada, Devers and a guy making over $19M a year fighting for the job with Shaw, I can see the merit in not spending big to improve 3B, especially with a long term solution, unless we plan on trading Moncada or Devers.

[moonslav59]

To break that down a bit, Shaw provided a LOT of value with his glove, to make up for his increasingly soggy bat. Shaw was good for 1.4 dWAR at third base. That's actually very very good, anything more than 1 dWAR is very very solid defensive play at the position, especially considering some of us (myself included) were concerned about his ability to play 3B full time. Travis Shaw got it done with the glove all year, even when the bat was failing him, and even though 3B is a corner infield position, the glove still matters there. A lot.

 

Travis didn't have much of an offensive result at the end of the day at 3B, he was the worst *offensive* 3B who played full time, BUT!!!!!! he hit well enough that his excellent defense played positively for us. That's just about the opposite of how we expected the narrative to go with Shaw this year but hey, that's baseball. If he can make some offseason adjustments and get that bat going a little more consistently, Shaw's going to be a major asset next year.

 

Actually, he wasn't the "worst offensive 3Bman who played FT." He was 22nd out of 24 who "qualified". Headley and Garcia were worse in OPS.

 

The team had the worst 3B OPS (.685) thanks mostly to Hill and other. The issue was more about how Shaw looked to end the season. I know one could argue that the Shaw that ended the 2015 season and started the 2016 season could be the "real" Shaw, or that he's somewhere in between that Shaw and the one that ended the season, which wouldn't be "the worst", but clea4rly it would be pretty bad.

 

I am close to losing faith with Shaw, because I see his unimpressive numbers at AA and AAA, which when combined are double the sample sizes of his career MLB .754 OPS, and I think that while .754 is not even near the worst, .745 might be a dream.

 

I doubt we look for an outside long term solution at 3B, unless we are looking at trading Moncada or Devers or someone else at another position we plan to move somebody to. We might try for a 1 year option like trading for Todd Frazier, but with all these guys on the roster, I think we'll let them sort themselves out and revisit during the season.

 

T Shaw

Sandoval

Moncada

Holt

Hernandez

Rutledge

(Devers farther away)

[Dojji]

Disagree VERY strongly Moonslav, I agree that the best way to improve your team is to start with your biggest problem, but I very much disagree that our biggest problem is 3B. I think our biggest issue right now is intangibles, and you can't sign away that problem.

 

We just lost our rallying point as a team. Team leadership was centered rather heavily around David Ortiz. We have the horses to make a deep postseason run next year, in terms of roster, the talent is there, all we really need to do is maybe a bit of fine tuning and successfuly fail to outsmart ourselves with stupid fantasy trades, and then maybe not go into a nosedive at the last second this time. If I bring in anyone from the outside right now, I do it for character reasons, not for numbers on a stat sheet. The young core needs to take over and frankly we're running out of veterans with championship experience -- it's pretty much just Pedroia and Buchholz now. I'm concerned that it's that lack of experience that was behind the deer-in-the-headlights look in the team's eyes in the playoffs this year. That's more concerning than anything the offense or defense is going to do next year.

 

Mind you, I don't think we have an intangibles problem per se. IF there's a problem, it's that we don't know who's going to step up and take leadership among this new young group of players. Clearly someone has to. Could be several people, could be nobody, and if it's nobody, that is a problem. But we're operating in the dark a lot more than we were at this time last year and I would be looking to add a veteran or two if I can find a place were it makes sense to put them.

[moonslav59]

Agreed.

Buchholz was the best ALDS starter out of the three this year, but that's not saying much....

 

How about 4-0 2.98 over the second half of 2016?

 

That's saying a little more, isn't it?

 

I was surprised at Porcello after he was consistently good all year.

I wasn't a bit surrpised that Price spit the bit. It's what he does, when there's a some pressure involved.

 

It was one game. It shouldn't be all that surprising that a couple pitchers had off days facing a very tough line-up and manager.

 

 

If Buch's option is picked up, he'd be my fill in option next fall, if they make the playoffs again.

 

I think they will take his option and the 4-5 slots will come down to a battle between Buch, Wright and Pomeranz, where the "loser" ends up in the pen as an important player.

[moonslav59]

Disagree VERY strongly Moonslav, I agree that the best way to improve your team is to start with your biggest problem, but I very much disagree that our biggest problem is 3B. I think our biggest issue right now is intangibles, and you can't sign away that problem.

 

I think our biggest positional need is RP'er (quality set-up).

 

It's not easy building "intangibles". Signing/trading for clutch players can get us in trouble (see Pablo & Craig).

 

 

We just lost our rallying point as a team. Team leadership was centered rather heavily around David Ortiz. We have the horses to make a deep postseason run next year, in terms of roster, the talent is there, all we really need to do is maybe a bit of fine tuning and successfuly fail to outsmart ourselves with stupid fantasy trades, and then maybe not go into a nosedive at the last second this time. If I bring in anyone from the outside right now, I do it for character reasons, not for numbers on a stat sheet. The young core needs to take over and frankly we're running out of veterans with championship experience -- it's pretty much just Pedroia and Buchholz now. I'm concerned that it's that lack of experience that was behind the deer-in-the-headlights look in the team's eyes in the playoffs this year. That's more concerning than anything the offense or defense is going to do next year.

 

Name names.

 

 

Mind you, I don't think we have an intangibles problem per se. IF there's a problem, it's that we don't know who's going to step up and take leadership among this new young group of players. Clearly someone has to. Could be several people, could be nobody, and if it's nobody, that is a problem. But we're operating in the dark a lot more than we were at this time last year and I would be looking to add a veteran or two if I can find a place were it makes sense to put them.

 

Napoli is the guy on the Guardians who seems to have been Mr. Intangible, but nobody wanted him back.

 

Intangible is like clutch- hard to identify, hard to quantify and hard to find and know that continuity will follow.

[Dojji]

 

Name names.

 

Well if I could pick one player in the entire league to add to the team it would be Yadi Molina.

[Bellhorn04]

I was surprised at Porcello after he was consistently good all year.

I wasn't a bit surrpised that Price spit the bit. It's what he does, when there's a some pressure involved.

 

It was one game. It shouldn't be all that surprising that a couple pitchers had off days facing a very tough line-up and manager.

 

You're saying that Francona had something to do with Porcello and Price having off-days?

[Dojji]

You're saying he doesn't?

[moonslav59]

You're saying that Francona had something to do with Porcello and Price having off-days?

 

No, but I do think Tito had something to do with us losing.

 

Had price let up 5 runs and we won, we wouldn't be talking about this.

 

My point was that nobody should ever be surprised about anything in a one game sample size. Tito had nothing to do with how P & P pitched.

[moonslav59]

Well if I could pick one player in the entire league to add to the team it would be Yadi Molina.

 

I'd love to have him on our team, but he's like a 100 in catcher years, and his intangibles have not helped the cards get anywhere very special in quite some time (WS loss in 2013 and WS win in 2011).

 

What's it going to take to get the Cards to trade him to us?

[Bellhorn04]

No, but I do think Tito had something to do with us losing.

 

Had price let up 5 runs and we won, we wouldn't be talking about this.

 

My point was that nobody should ever be surprised about anything in a one game sample size. Tito had nothing to do with how P & P pitched.

 

Price keeps having bad one game samples in the postseason, so it was definitely not a surprise.

[moonslav59]

Price keeps having bad one game samples in the postseason, so it was definitely not a surprise.

 

That too!

[Dojji]

I'd love to have him on our team, but he's like a 100 in catcher years, and his intangibles have not helped the cards get anywhere very special in quite some time (WS loss in 2013 and WS win in 2011).

 

What's it going to take to get the Cards to trade him to us?

 

Probably? Nothing. If I had to guess I'd say Yadi's a Cardinal for life, or nearly. But a veteran catcher is at the top of my wish list if I'm the Sox right now. We really don't need so very much else to make a deep playoff run and I have a theory that our pitching played down in the playoffs because of the young catching. I might be OK with the philosophy of letting the rookie catchers gain experience if we weren't on a 2 year window with our pitching contracts, but it's clear we're thinking short term right now, and that means I want a veteran to stand behind whichever young guy is our go-to backstop next year.

[SoxnCycles]

 

I think they will take his option and the 4-5 slots will come down to a battle between Buch, Wright and Pomeranz, where the "loser" ends up in the pen as an important player.

 

Yup, makes sense.

[oldtimer]

Well if I could pick one player in the entire league to add to the team it would be Yadi Molina.

 

What about Beltran. He is the kind of guy we need and may be available.

[Eddy Ballgame]

What about Beltran. He is the kind of guy we need and may be available.

 

Beltran definitely makes sense for Boston, in my opinion. They obviously need a DH and Encarcion/Bautista may price their way out of whatever value the Sox put on them.

 

There are a lot of 1st base/DH types available this offseason, though. If they think Chris Young could DH regularly against lefties, they could sign a Morales type as well. They definitely won't go with any kind of "revolving door" at DH, though. One guy will get the majority of at-bats or it will be a straight forward platoon.

Edited October 26, 2016 by Eddy Ballgame

[moonslav59]

Beltran definitely makes sense for Boston, in my opinion. They obviously need a DH and Encarcion/Bautista may price their way out of whatever value the Sox put on them.

 

There are a lot of 1st base/DH types available this offseason, though. If they think Chris Young could DH regularly against lefties, they could sign a Morales type as well. They definitely won't go with any kind of "revolving door" at DH, though. One guy will get the majority of at-bats or it will be a straight forward platoon.

 

If we sign Beltran, when we play at NL parks, he can play LF, and Beni can sit or play CF as JBJ rests.

 

If we sign EE, either EE or HanRam sist in NL parks.

 

Not a big concern, but it is a factor to think about.

[Eddy Ballgame]

If we sign Beltran, when we play at NL parks, he can play LF, and Beni can sit or play CF as JBJ rests.

 

If we sign EE, either EE or HanRam sist in NL parks.

 

Not a big concern, but it is a factor to think about.

 

I have no doubt they'll be in on EE, but I just have no idea if he'll price himself out of their plans. There are a lot of 1B/DH types available this off season, which could hurt him.

[moonslav59]

I have no doubt they'll be in on EE, but I just have no idea if he'll price himself out of their plans. There are a lot of 1B/DH types available this off season, which could hurt him.

 

It's hard to value a DH. Papi did not get maid more than $16M and many of his deals were relatively short term. His age and fear of quick decline were probably factors, but I'm not sure what some GM will give EE. I'm guessing $110-110M/5- maybe $110M/6. I guess he might get "just" $80M/5 at worst.

 

[Dojji]

What about Beltran. He is the kind of guy we need and may be available.

 

I'm not anxious to fill the DH role just because we can, meanwhile if our issues revolve so much around the pitching, an upgrade at catcher may be the answer.

 

The long and short of it is I would like to see the DH spot left open, because we have a lot of pieces to shift around and try to work into the lineup as it is, between Shaw, Young, Moncada, Swihart, Travis, etc. and the DH slot may be useful in trying to find them all plate appearances. One more aging bat may be more confusion than help.

[Eddy Ballgame]

If we sign Beltran, when we play at NL parks, he can play LF, and Beni can sit or play CF as JBJ rests.

 

If we sign EE, either EE or HanRam sist in NL parks.

 

Not a big concern, but it is a factor to think about.

 

I'm not anxious to fill the DH role just because we can, meanwhile if our issues revolve so much around the pitching, an upgrade at catcher may be the answer.

 

The long and short of it is I would like to see the DH spot left open, because we have a lot of pieces to shift around and try to work into the lineup as it is, between Shaw, Young, Moncada, Swihart, Travis, etc. and the DH slot may be useful in trying to find them all plate appearances. One more aging bat may be more confusion than help.

 

I disagree. Swihart/Moncada/Travis will either make the team as full time starters at one position, or they'll be in Pawtucket. They could obviously be traded as well, but they will certainly play every day somewhere. DH is out of the question.

 

They could use Young/Sandoval in a DH platoon or maybe Young/Shaw, but there is no way you'll ever see 6 different guys get 100 at bats at the DH position. I think they'll sign a full time DH type either way, but you won't see a revolving carousel of players DHing.

[Slasher9]

just say NO to spending a dime on DH.....

[moonslav59]

I disagree. Swihart/Moncada/Travis will either make the team as full time starters at one position, or they'll be in Pawtucket. They could obviously be traded as well, but they will certainly play every day somewhere. DH is out of the question.

 

They could use Young/Sandoval in a DH platoon or maybe Young/Shaw, but there is no way you'll ever see 6 different guys get 100 at bats at the DH position. I think they'll sign a full time DH type either way, but you won't see a revolving carousel of players DHing.

 

Shaw is a way better fielder than HanRam at 1B and Pablo/Moncada at 3B, so I don't see Shaw at DH.

 

I'm not sure why so many people are so dead set against using Moncada at DH (or Swihart). I get that it's not ideal, but they can still get work in at their position. IMO, if we need their bat, and we have nobody better, they'll be at DH whenever it makes us better.

[moonslav59]

just say NO to spending a dime on DH.....

 

Young-Pablo

Young-Swihart

Young-Moncada

Young-HanRam (HR at 1B vs LHPs)

I doubt we spend on a DH, unless it's Beltran.

[Eddy Ballgame]

If we sign Beltran, when we play at NL parks, he can play LF, and Beni can sit or play CF as JBJ rests.

 

If we sign EE, either EE or HanRam sist in NL parks.

 

Not a big concern, but it is a factor to think about.

 

Shaw is a way better fielder than HanRam at 1B and Pablo/Moncada at 3B, so I don't see Shaw at DH.

 

Shaw's fielding won't matter. What will matter is how comfortable Ramirez is at DH. If he isn't, he'll play first. Ramirez' bat is the overriding factor here by a mile.

 

 

 

I'm not sure why so many people are so dead set against using Moncada at DH (or Swihart). I get that it's not ideal, but they can still get work in at their position. IMO, if we need their bat, and we have nobody better, they'll be at DH whenever it makes us better.

 

We went through all of this before, but there are several reasons why you literally never see young athletic players DH.

 

I don't want to hash it out all over again, but I will make any wager that you would like to that Swihart or Moncada won't be part of any kind of DH platoon. They will play every day somewhere, at least to start the season next year. I'm 100% certain, barring injury.

 

I think you also may not realize that there aren't a lot of guys who are cut out to DH. It's nowhere near as easy as most people think it is and the Sox won't keep it as any kind of revolving door for different players. It doesn't work.

[Kimmi]

What about Beltran. He is the kind of guy we need and may be available.

 

I have warmed up to the idea of Beltran.

[moonslav59]

Shaw is a way better fielder than HanRam at 1B and Pablo/Moncada at 3B, so I don't see Shaw at DH.

 

Shaw's fielding won't matter. What will matter is how comfortable Ramirez is at DH. If he isn't, he'll play first. Ramirez' bat is the overriding factor here by a mile.

 

In limited time at DH, HanRam has done better than as a non DH. Who knows what his comfort level is at DH. Maybe he'd love it- maybe not.

____________________________________________________________________________________

 

I'm not sure why so many people are so dead set against using Moncada at DH (or Swihart). I get that it's not ideal, but they can still get work in at their position. IMO, if we need their bat, and we have nobody better, they'll be at DH whenever it makes us better.

 

We went through all of this before, but there are several reasons why you literally never see young athletic players DH.

 

Except in the minors, I guess.

 

Look, I get the reasons why a young, stud athlete like Moncada shouldn't DH. He needs to learn a position and try to get to be a decent fielder there ASAP, and playing DH hinders that growth, but it doesn't look like he'll be a plus fielder anywhere for a while. Assuming we don't pick up a DH, I see Moncada as one of our best hitters out of the candidates to fill the DH role. Young looks to be the best choice vs LHPs, but it's easy to see Moncada as our best option vs RHPs, if not on opening day, then maybe after (if?) Pablo & Co. flop.

 

If Moncada is raking it in the minors, but hasn't mastered 3B at AAA, will we keep him there out of some sort of tradition that needs to be upheld?

 

____________________________________________________________________________

 

I don't want to hash it out all over again, but I will make any wager that you would like to that Swihart or Moncada won't be part of any kind of DH platoon. They will play every day somewhere, at least to start the season next year. I'm 100% certain, barring injury.

 

I have said the same as you. The season will start with Moncada in AAA, unless he magically proves he can field well enough.

 

Look, they put Swihart in LF, and he got hurt. It's not like having him in LF is a big deal compared to DH, but I'm not even sure he can hit well enough to DH yet. Once the season begins, we may have to go through the depth chart to find a DH that works for us. It's not like Pablo has a lock on any role.

 

It's not ideal for Swihart or Moncada to DH, but I think the odds are higher than you think, but maybe too low for me to want to bet on it, if I was a betting man.

 

_________________________________________________________________

 

I think you also may not realize that there aren't a lot of guys who are cut out to DH. It's nowhere near as easy as most people think it is and the Sox won't keep it as any kind of revolving door for different players. It doesn't work.

 

Where did I say it was easy?

 

What makes you the expert on who is "cut out" to DH?

 

3B is not easy either, as Moncada proved this season.

 

LF is not easy, as Swihart proved this season, and HanRam proved last season.

 

I guess it was not only okay to throw HanRam in LF last year, but to keep him there through the ugliest ordeal I've seen in ages. Allowing him or others to play DH may be just what they want or like, and maybe they don't even know it yet.

 

My guess is when Papi was put at DH, he probably would have preferred to stay at 1B. Somebody, somewhere might have said, "he's not cut out to be a DH".

[Eddy Ballgame]

Shaw is a way better fielder than HanRam at 1B and Pablo/Moncada at 3B, so I don't see Shaw at DH.

 

Shaw's fielding won't matter. What will matter is how comfortable Ramirez is at DH. If he isn't, he'll play first. Ramirez' bat is the overriding factor here by a mile.

 

In limited time at DH, HanRam has done better than as a non DH. Who knows what his comfort level is at DH. Maybe he'd love it- maybe not.

 

 

I have no idea if Ramirez would be comfortable at DH or not. That's not the point. You posted that Shaw is a better fielder than Ramirez, so you can't see him as the DH. That doesn't matter. What matters is Ramirez' bat. If he doesn't want to DH, he'll play first, regardless of who is the better fielder.__________________________________________________________________________________

 

[/b]I'm not sure why so many people are so dead set against using Moncada at DH (or Swihart). I get that it's not ideal, but they can still get work in at their position. IMO, if we need their bat, and we have nobody better, they'll be at DH whenever it makes us better.[/i][/b]

 

We went through all of this before, but there are several reasons why you literally never see young athletic players DH.

 

Except in the minors, I guess.

 

Look, I get the reasons why a young, stud athlete like Moncada shouldn't DH. He needs to learn a position and try to get to be a decent fielder there ASAP, and playing DH hinders that growth, but it doesn't look like he'll be a plus fielder anywhere for a while. Assuming we don't pick up a DH, I see Moncada as one of our best hitters out of the candidates to fill the DH role. Young looks to be the best choice vs LHPs, but it's easy to see Moncada as our best option vs RHPs, if not on opening day, then maybe after (if?) Pablo & Co. flop.

 

If Moncada is raking it in the minors, but hasn't mastered 3B at AAA, will we keep him there out of some sort of tradition that needs to be upheld?

 

So you think that the reason why young athletic players never DH is because of tradition?!?!? Trust me, it's not. It's because if they are ever going to play full time as a fielder, they need game reps. Catching ground balls in practice isn't enough. They need full time, "game reps," whether it's in the minors or in the majors. Can you give me one example in the history of baseball (Since 1973), where a young athletic player started for a team at DH? You can't. Moncada needs to play everyday in the field somewhere. Trust me, he will. No one is going to impede the development of a top young prospect because he may or may not be the best option as a "DH" for the big league club.

 

____________________________________________________________________________

 

I don't want to hash it out all over again, but I will make any wager that you would like to that Swihart or Moncada won't be part of any kind of DH platoon. They will play every day somewhere, at least to start the season next year. I'm 100% certain, barring injury.

 

I have said the same as you. The season will start with Moncada in AAA, unless he magically proves he can field well enough.

 

Look, they put Swihart in LF, and he got hurt. It's not like having him in LF is a big deal compared to DH, but I'm not even sure he can hit well enough to DH yet. Once the season begins, we may have to go through the depth chart to find a DH that works for us. It's not like Pablo has a lock on any role.

 

It's not ideal for Swihart or Moncada to DH, but I think the odds are higher than you think, but maybe too low for me to want to bet on it, if I was a betting man.

 

I think the odds are 0%, so I'm sure you think that they are higher than I do. The Sox have made it clear that they haven't given up on Swihart as a catcher. If he isn't traded, he will handle the majority of the catching duties in Pawtucket, or if he has an amazing spring, Boston. They will not make him some type of "super sub" at this stage of his development. It's doesn't make any sense to do that. They need to find out what they have with this guy, and they will. _________________________________________________________________

 

I think you also may not realize that there aren't a lot of guys who are cut out to DH. It's nowhere near as easy as most people think it is and the Sox won't keep it as any kind of revolving door for different players. It doesn't work.

 

Where did I say it was easy?

 

What makes you the expert on who is "cut out" to DH?

 

3B is not easy either, as Moncada proved this season.

 

LF is not easy, as Swihart proved this season, and HanRam proved last season.

 

I guess it was not only okay to throw HanRam in LF last year, but to keep him there through the ugliest ordeal I've seen in ages. Allowing him or others to play DH may be just what they want or like, and maybe they don't even know it yet.

 

My guess is when Papi was put at DH, he probably would have preferred to stay at 1B. Somebody, somewhere might have said, "he's not cut out to be a DH".

 

I'm not an "expert" on the DH, but I know enough about it to know that not everyone has the mindset to be able to do it. Not sure where you went with the rest of this post, but I'm pretty certain that the Sox will know who will handle the bulk of the DHing by the end of spring training 2017, and it certainly won't be Swihart or Moncada, regardless of the fact that either of them could possibly be the "best option."

[moonslav59]

I'm not an "expert" on the DH, but I know enough about it to know that not everyone has the mindset to be able to do it. Not sure where you went with the rest of this post, but I'm pretty certain that the Sox will know who will handle the bulk of the DHing by the end of spring training 2017, and it certainly won't be Swihart or Moncada, regardless of the fact that either of them could possibly be the "best option."

 

I'm not sure what the argument is. I have agreed that at the end of ST'ing, Moncada and Swihart will be in AAA.

 

It's about what happens if or when Pablo flops.