Benintendi watch

[sk7326]

I follow the minor leagues twice as much as the big league club, I read every article on BA, BP, FG, anything from Law, Cooper, Mayo, Sickels, badler and many more. I'm not some Joe just reading MiLb box scores forming an opinion.

 

That's 1 guy, 1 scout slapping a 70 on him, and correct me if I'm wrong it that was just on his hit tool. One scout on one tool? Sox prospects had an 80 slapped on Bogaerts, and I always trust them more on sox players because they have more eyes on our own guys. Benitendi is a consensus top 25 guy while Bogaerts was #2. If scouts thought Benitendi was an all around 70 player he'd be a consensus top 5, top 3 player in all of baseball.

 

Not that simple - there are notions of position and age that kick in too.

 

Benintendi is a college prospect who was voted the nation's best player. He has obliterated levels competitionwise which were worse than or as good as the SEC. He is a very bright prospect, but a 21 year old at AA. By his 21st Birthday, Bogaerts was starting at 3B for a team that would win the World Series.

 

Bogaerts was an elite prospect because as a 20 year old, he showed advanced power - and it looked like he could stay at SS, which was the big question for him (because he was 6'1" 200 lbs as a 20 year old). As it turns out, it has taken a while for the power to really arrive - this year there is some good evidence - and it turns out that after a ton of work on his part, he can actually play shortstop quite well.

 

Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi and Bradley in that order. The first two are foundational for us, the jury's out on the other two.

[moonslav59]

After several years at SS. He was ranked and scouted as a SS, and was presented in all scouting reports as a SS. His eventual landing spot is not a factor in the discussion of his prospect rankings.

 

I disagree. If his projected ML position was going to be 3B, then some value would be taken away.

We have no idea how most GMs viewed Bogey's eventual position, but it seemed like most scouting reports at least mentioned an eventual move to 3B.

[moonslav59]

It's a legitimate discussion for a couple of reasons: First, to point just what a special core of young talent the Red Sox have amassed, and second, to justify the Benintendi hype. A lot of people are very very high on the kid, and since this is a place to discuss Red Sox prospects, it's good to see where the hype comes from.

 

The point about Xander not reaching his power portential is valid. But to ignite further discussion, I am going to throw this out there: Mookie Betts is the true building block of the Sox' lineup. Thoughts?

 

I totally agree and said so before last season began.

I recently projected Betts to again finish in the top 3 in Sox OPS this year. That was when he was over 150 points behind Shaw and 7th on the team in OPS.

The fact that Bogey has stuck at SS, and his defense has improved significantly has changed my view of his value.

Betts has shown a lot of growth on defense as well, especially when you consider he just started playing OF last year, but the SS position is king.

It's a close call between Betts and Bogey, but I see Betts' offense as becoming much greater than Bogey's- enough to pass Bogey in overall value as Red Sox players.

How Benintendi rates compared to B & B is yet to be determined, but I can't fault anyone for seeing greatness in him.

I think our killer B's are going to blow away Bagwell and Biggio, because we'll have 4!

Betts

Bradley

Bogey

Benintendi

 

Yes, quite a tribute to our farm system!

[sk7326]

I disagree. If his projected ML position was going to be 3B, then some value would be taken away.

We have no idea how most GMs viewed Bogey's eventual position, but it seemed like most scouting reports at least mentioned an eventual move to 3B.

 

I think it matters as to when "eventually" arrives. If Bogaerts can stay on SS for 5 years or so, then what happens afterwards is a nonissue.

[Dojji]

Frankly I'm getting a bit nervous about how we're going to pay all these guys. We have the kind of homegrown roster that's going to be very expensive in a few years.

[moonslav59]

I think it matters as to when "eventually" arrives. If Bogaerts can stay on SS for 5 years or so, then what happens afterwards is a nonissue.

 

My point was about how Bogey was view when he was still a prospect. That has changed, in terms of his projected position.

He's a SS now and probably will be until he gets much older.

Back then, most saw him as a 3Bman.

[Dojji]

I think what most people saw bogey as a guy who could be an average SS while he was young and spry, but as he filled out into his late 20's early 30's may need to come off the position or accept below average defense at SS... Basically A-Rod lite, before he became Slappy and A-Roid and all the other things we hate him for now. which might still happen, although Bogaerts has worked hard to improve at SS so it may also not.

 

If he can fill out enough to reach his power ceiling while remaining mobile enough to play good defense, we'll have a guhy who would be the centerpiece of any franchise.

[moonslav59]

Frankly I'm getting a bit nervous about how we're going to pay all these guys. We have the kind of homegrown roster that's going to be very expensive in a few years.

 

Luckily, we don't many super long term deals like CC anymore. Price has 3 or 7 years left.

Pedey 6

Castillo 5

Porcello 4

Sandoval 4 (with 5th year option)

HanRam 3 (4th vesting option)

Kimbrel 2 (3rd option)

Young 2

Ortiz 1

Uehara 1

Tazawa 1

Buch 1 option

 

As you can see, when we will need to start paying these kids, we'll be losing some big money, especially Porcello, Sandy and HanRam.

 

We'll also have some cheap young talent on the 25 man roster to balance out the mega deals: Moncada, Espinoza, Benintendi, Devers and others.

[sk7326]

Frankly I'm getting a bit nervous about how we're going to pay all these guys. We have the kind of homegrown roster that's going to be very expensive in a few years.

 

Given TV money and how every square foot of the Nation is monetized, if the guys are not paid, it's because of choice.

[jacksonianmarch]

You guys have absolutely revamped your lineup. Pedroia and Papi are the old hat guys still plugging along on big money deals. Hanley is the big FA acquisition. Basically, everyone else is a young, cost controlled home grown guy. The crunch will only come if all the guys are on the team and if all stay productive. Benintendi will fill a void next yr after his clock chugs ahead as Holt, while gritty, isn't the long term solution. Swihart in LF is basically an experiment to make him more valuable to you, while knowing that anyone wanting him in a trade will be seeking the catcher. Benintendi is the future out there. Thing is, he might be the future somewhere else should the right deal come along. While having his stick in LF would be nice, you already have the best offense in baseball. DD isn't in Boston to roster build. That has already been done for him. He's in Boston to get back to winning, and if he thinks the sox are one piece away from a title and that piece will have to cost Benintendi, then kiss him goodbye

[cp176]

You guys have absolutely revamped your lineup. Pedroia and Papi are the old hat guys still plugging along on big money deals. Hanley is the big FA acquisition. Basically, everyone else is a young, cost controlled home grown guy. The crunch will only come if all the guys are on the team and if all stay productive. Benintendi will fill a void next yr after his clock chugs ahead as Holt, while gritty, isn't the long term solution. Swihart in LF is basically an experiment to make him more valuable to you, while knowing that anyone wanting him in a trade will be seeking the catcher. Benintendi is the future out there. Thing is, he might be the future somewhere else should the right deal come along. While having his stick in LF would be nice, you already have the best offense in baseball. DD isn't in Boston to roster build. That has already been done for him. He's in Boston to get back to winning, and if he thinks the sox are one piece away from a title and that piece will have to cost Benintendi, then kiss him goodbye

 

I think you might be right for sure here. No Red Sox fan would like seeing Benintendi traded but I would add that the potential to replace him with two or three others is right there just around the corner though. He is a prospect. A good one for sure but a prospect none the less. I'm not sure this team needs to anything more than just let the players play and the coaches coach - no trades need right now. Being in this position puts him in a position of strength. People would love to have what we got and we don't desperately need anything. Pretty good deals come from this.

[jacksonianmarch]

You need an arm. Wright isn't a #2. Porcello is playing over his head. Kelly is Buchholz 2.0. ERod might be a solid piece in your rotation, but he isn't healthy. You need a Matt Garza circa 2010 version to add to your rotation. Not necessarily an ace, but a quality innings eater who could win 20 on your team

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com has an interesting page on projected rosters years from now:

 

http://soxprospects.com/future.htm

 

Here's the 2018 version:

 

C Vazquez/ Swihart

1B Ramirez/ S Travis

2B Pedroia

3B T Shaw/ Sandoval

SS Bogaerts/ Hernandez

LF Benintendi/Holt

CF Bradley

RF Betts

DH Moncada

(I know, it's 14 guys, so I'm not sure they can count to 25.)

Pitchers:

Price, Porcello, ERod, Kelly, Owens

Kimbrel, Smith, Kopech, Barnes, Johnson, Workman, Light, Jerez (no Wright)

 

 

 

[cp176]

You need an arm. Wright isn't a #2. Porcello is playing over his head. Kelly is Buchholz 2.0. ERod might be a solid piece in your rotation, but he isn't healthy. You need a Matt Garza circa 2010 version to add to your rotation. Not necessarily an ace, but a quality innings eater who could win 20 on your team

 

Not sure i agree with your assessment and I am pretty sure that DD doesn't. What you are saying might become reality and it might not. No one knows for sure what you have in Wright. Actually, it is possible that this is Porcello. I wouldn't bet the farm on Kelly but who really knows - not like we are talking about an old guy here. I like Buchholz in the 5 hole. Could this all change?- of course but I don't think that with this team hitting and actually playing the way that they are gives any reason to rush to judgement about anything. A 2010 version of Garza would certainly be an asset for sure though. They may make a trade but if they do it will probably be for someone younger and better. It's the beauty of dealing from strength. 10 games over .500 without E-Rod! Really.

[Hugh2]

Overall 70, three talent evaluators, not just the hit tool.

 

You are just some Joe regurgitating opinions from others, just like me, because none of us are talent evaluators. However, if you follow the minors as much as you say you do but can't completely grasp the concept of the impact position has on the overall standing on a prospect, we're just arguing for the sake of arguing here.

 

The point is, Benintendi's a highly rated offensive prospect on his own, who'd be a top five guy right now if he played shortstop.

 

The fact that you "read all the articles" does not make you an authority on prospect evaluation. My point of contention continues to be how your opinion invalidates all of the data/scouting on, and current production of Benintendi.

 

Do you have a link to the 3 evaporators who graded him overall as a 70? Last BA had all his tools at 55/50 except his hit tool 70. BP had him overall at 60. mlb.com has him at 55 overall. Keith Law had this to say about him the other day:

 

keith law had this to say about him the other day:

 

"KLaw: I love Benintendi, but everyone is getting way too excited about a college prospect raking in high-A. He might be a superstar - it wouldn't really surprise me at all - but I think we need to see him in AA. The SEC to high-A is kind of a lateral move for a 21-year-old"

 

I'll eat crow....but please show these 3 scouts giving Benintendi an overall 70 grade???? If Benintendi had that high of a ceiling he should have no problem being the top prospect in baseball. And no, it's not because he doesn't play SS because Bryon Buxton had zero problem being the #1 prospect in all of baseball as a CFer.

 

Bogaerts was being talked about as being one of the best players in all of baseball with an MVP ceiling, that is why he was the #2 prospect. 2013 Bogaerts > 2016 Benintendi. It's close....but I don't really see the debate.

[Hugh2]

Here is BP's top 10 25 and under. I'd be willing to bet Bogaerts or Betts would be #1 on anyones list

 

 

Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/90 or later)

 

1a. Xander Bogaerts

1b. Mookie Betts

3. Yoan Moncada

4. Blake Swihart

5. Eduardo Rodriguez

6. Anderson Espinoza

7. Rafael Devers

8. Andrew Benintendi

9. Jackie Bradley, Jr.

10. Henry Owens

[User Name]

They're not current grades, they are projections, and there are actually more than three plastered over the internet. If Benintendi was a 70 right now, he'd be playing in the Majors! Hell, Bogaerts was projected as a 65-70 guy, but he was an overall 55 in 2013 if I recall correctly.

 

Also, for someone who toots his own horn so much about prospect knowledge, you don't seem to understand three fundamental things about prospect evaluation: 1) Not all draft classes are created equal (the point about Buxton being a #1 prospect is bogus if there's no one with similar profile but different positional value to compare him to). 2) Positional value is an enormous part of a prospect's stock. It's not rocket science. If you compare a SS and a catcher with identical overall grades, the catcher will be considered the better prospect. No need to reinvent the wheel here. 3) Current valuations are projections are not the same thing, and that is the reason why a "prospect" is a "prospect" and not an established major leaguer.

 

While initially the point was to ignite discussion, I am certainly not interested in a penis measuring contest with someone so set in his ways, so agree to disagree.

[Hugh2]

They're not current grades, they are projections, and there are actually more than three plastered over the internet. If Benintendi was a 70 right now, he'd be playing in the Majors! Hell, Bogaerts was projected as a 65-70 guy, but he was an overall 55 in 2013 if I recall correctly.

 

Also, for someone who toots his own horn so much about prospect knowledge, you don't seem to understand three fundamental things about prospect evaluation: 1) Not all draft classes are created equal (the point about Buxton being a #1 prospect is bogus if there's no one with similar profile but different positional value to compare him to). 2) Positional value is an enormous part of a prospect's stock. It's not rocket science. If you compare a SS and a catcher with identical overall grades, the catcher will be considered the better prospect. No need to reinvent the wheel here. 3) Current valuations are projections are not the same thing, and that is the reason why a "prospect" is a "prospect" and not an established major leaguer.

 

While initially the point was to ignite discussion, I am certainly not interested in a penis measuring contest with someone so set in his ways, so agree to disagree.

 

Listen, I have no desire to get into a pissing argument today. I really don't care about winning an argument.

 

If Benintendi really does have a higher ceiling than Bogaerts and scouts are talking like that now about him F'ng awesome dude. I love reading and learning about these kids and I'm asking you for some information because allegedly you know something I do not. I'm not trying to come of all "ne nur ne nur poo poo" you can't show me proof" no I'm asking you to direct me to these 3 scouts who said Benintendi has a 70 grade overall.

 

As you said before, neither of us are actually scouts or know ourselves and if I could read what you read then I'll probably change my opinion. So I'm sorry you feel that I'm "so set in my ways" actually I'd be more than willing to change my point of view....just help me out a little bit.

[Hugh2]

Also please don't keep saying things that I don't understand that I clearly do. I'm well aware of the positional adjustment. I know darn well that a SS and a LFer who have all tools equal that the SS will be regarded much higher than him because of that. My argument was based on the assumption that fielding aside Bogaerts still had a higher ceiling as an offensive player. I see no information from anyone that has led me to believe otherwise.

 

Maybe you have seen something that could persuade someone otherwise...and I'd love to read that.

[User Name]

If you do understand, then how can you brush aside the value of positional impact in prospect valuations?

 

A 55/55/55/55/55 overall 55 catcher is way more valuable than a CF with the same scouting. That's the crux of the argument here. In general, Benintendi and Bogaerts have similar scouting reports, with Bogaerts having more power, and Benintendi presenting better plate discipline, speed and defense (comparing him to prospect Xander, since the improvement defensively in current Xander is astounding). The real deciding factor between the two is that Bogaerts plays the second weakest offensive position in the diamond. That added value is not peanuts.

[Hugh2]

I'm not brushing it aside, I see it, understand it, own it, and still say Bogaerts was heralded as having a higher offensive ceiling back in 2013. He was talked about as a potential middle of the order bat. No one constructs a lineup saying that a guy who would bat #7 as an outfielder should bat #3 as a short stop.

 

You can separate the two, but you should look at the whole package, but that's not my position here. My original point was I thought Bogaerts was perceived as having a higher offensive ceiling in 2013 than Benintendi does now. You say that Bogaerts was heralded as having a strong offensive ceiling because of positional adjustment....I don't disagree with the concept at all. I just think in spite of the position Bogaerts still had one of the highest offensive ceilings in all of prospectidum back in 2013. Consider this, he was promoted to the big leagues as a 20 year old to NOT play short stop.

 

I think Benetendi has a very high offensive ceiling too, I don't think it's higher than Bogaerts, I suppose you disagree, but I just don't see it. What really sparked this was implying that Bogaerts having a higher offensive ceiling than Benitendi puts someone on a different planet. I don't think so, and if it was that obvious I would expect the narrative around Benintendi to be him having an MVP middle of the order bat and even if he's being talked about as such that puts him on Bogaerts level position aside, not the other way around. Bogaerts was rushed much quicker than Benitendi, and because of that I'm not convinced Andrew has the better approach. You can go by the stats which puts AB 2% points better in the BB department and a lower K rate. But Bogaerts also played almost every level 2 years younger than Benintendi and that matters.

 

Now, in Benintendis defense it's not his fault he didn't start this year in Portland but it does matter that Bogaerts came up through the system at a younger age. If Bogaerts played every level a year or two older...he could have very well put up video game numbers, like AB is now. But I think Benintendi has to show something above A ball to be in the same universe as Bogaerts ceiling and in the absence of that track record all you have to go by is tools. And Bogaerts had elite offensive tools as well when he was in the minors. He had elite bat speed, and the ability to make adjustments and square the ball up with back spin against much older pitching and he also has a better physical profile and body type than Andrew Benintendi. Now all that might not matter, but it matters when projecting talent out as a scout in the minor leagues which is one reason why Bogaerts was heralded as having an elite offensive ceiling.

 

If Bogaerts was a CFer instead of a SS....I still think he would have been a top 10 prospect. Now I'll fully admit that last statement is completely subjective but the narrative about him coming up and heralded as a potential middle of the order bat is not.

[User Name]

I think the main difference in our valuation is the overvaluing (in my opinion) of power. Bogaerts had good plate discipline, but not as good as Benintendi, and they're both take-and-rake guys either way. The main difference in offensive packaging is that Bogaerts was supposed to be a high-power/average guy, with some K issues to his game because of his swing. That's how he was scouted, and that's the Bogaerts we are comparing to Benintendi, who has a similar approach, but more contact ability, speed, and less propensity to strike out.

 

I just think overall versatility in offensive game trumps power every time, because power can develop, but approach is extremely difficult to coach, and you can't teach speed and hand-eye coordinaiton.

[Dojji]

if you had to overvalue one attribute, power would be a good one to pick. Both of these players have very good approaches at the plate. it's really a question of preference whether you like .280/.350/.450 more than .300/.380/.420, just to speak in general, purely theoretical terms.

 

besides, we're comparing Benintendi to a palyer who is currently leading the league in BA and putting up a slash line of .346/.397/.495/.891. If he can swing that well, the question of whether to get high OBP's based on walks or putting a great swing on the ball, is kind of a moot one.

 

I seem to recall another shortstop we had in living memory who didn't take a ton of walks, but put up that kind of slash line on a regular basis due to elite offensive skills. Just saying. I know we're all trying not to put Nomar on bogaerts, but it's exciting to see that kind of talent at our shortstop position and an end of the shortstop roulette we had to deal with from year to year ever since.

[User Name]

Which is why I specifically made it clear that we are comparing the 2013 version of Bogaerts (as in, the one the scouting community presented), because what he has done in the Majors is pretty much the opposite of what was expected of him.

[Hugh2]

Benintendis is batting .243/.293/.324 so far in Portland.

 

What's the over/under of when he reaches .300????

 

I'll put it at June 21st.

[Emp9]

• Andrew Benintendi (Red Sox's No. 3) hit his second homer at the Double-A level, helping Portland come away with an extra-inning victory against Bowie, 5-4. The No. 21 overall prospect went 2-for-4 and has driven in at least one run in four of his past five games.

[cp176]

• Andrew Benintendi (Red Sox's No. 3) hit his second homer at the Double-A level, helping Portland come away with an extra-inning victory against Bowie, 5-4. The No. 21 overall prospect went 2-for-4 and has driven in at least one run in four of his past five games.

 

He is just starting to get it going.

[cp176]

His stock is on the rise again. What will they do with him? Tradition says that the Sox will want to see him come along slowly and follow what most of us would agree is a normal progression before ultimately winding up in Fenway. On the other hand, his stock as a trade chip is right up there where Swihart's and Travis's was before their injuries. We need young talented pitching that isn't years away from getting to Boston.

[Jack Flap]

His stock is on the rise again. What will they do with him? Tradition says that the Sox will want to see him come along slowly and follow what most of us would agree is a normal progression before ultimately winding up in Fenway. On the other hand, his stock as a trade chip is right up there where Swihart's and Travis's was before their injuries. We need young talented pitching that isn't years away from getting to Boston.

 

True, but we also need a left fielder in the pretty near future.

 

The pitching market this summer is looking pretty barren...not many names out there I'd want to give up Benintendi or anyone else from our top 4 for, and yet the pressure will be there for the team to make a big move. It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

[Hugh2]

His stock is on the rise again. What will they do with him? Tradition says that the Sox will want to see him come along slowly and follow what most of us would agree is a normal progression before ultimately winding up in Fenway. On the other hand, his stock as a trade chip is right up there where Swihart's and Travis's was before their injuries. We need young talented pitching that isn't years away from getting to Boston.

 

I don't think his stock every took a hit, and I'm fairly certain his stock has been higher than Sam Travis for a while. It's too bad Swihart and Travis got injured though, they would have been nice trade chips that could be used to save the killer B's and the big 4.