2016 Trade and Roster Move Speculation thread

[S5Dewey]

I was on board with this until i learned that Santana served an 80 game suspension for PED usage. Now, not so much. I think my position on signing suspended PED users is pretty well known.

[Palodios]

I was on board with this until i learned that Santana served an 80 game suspension for PED usage. Now, not so much. I think my position on signing suspended PED users is pretty well known.

 

The Sox wouldn't be giving him any more money.

 

If they can get him without giving up significant talent, it seems like a solid move. Santana gives has averaged 200 IP/4.00 ERA over his career. You stash E-rod, let him develop a bit more. You build significant rotation depth before an offseason with very few starters. Take the pressure off Johnson/Owens and maybe use them as trade chips for a key upgrade.

[moonslav59]

Getting Santana would be a side way move I'm opposed to. I'm with Moon on this. Locking into a two year contract for $26M plus giving away additional prospects would be the dumbest thing to do at this point.

 

Now that we have Pomeranz, just play it out and see what's in store.

 

Santana for Buch would be a plus for this year, assuming he does better than ERod or someone else gets hurt, but I'm looking for better than Santana for 2016 and 2017. The $13M to Santana might prohibit us from getting better.

[moonslav59]

The Sox wouldn't be giving him any more money.

 

If they can get him without giving up significant talent, it seems like a solid move. Santana gives has averaged 200 IP/4.00 ERA over his career. You stash E-rod, let him develop a bit more. You build significant rotation depth before an offseason with very few starters. Take the pressure off Johnson/Owens and maybe use them as trade chips for a key upgrade.

 

We would be giving him money in 2016 ($13M) and 2017 ($13M), and we could be very tight on the luxury tax next winter.

 

I like having nice SP'er depth, but I'd rather have higher quality in our 1 to 5 slots. Next year's rotation and starter depth looks like this right now:

1) Price

2) Porcello

3) Wright

4) Pomeranz

5) ERod

6) Kelly

7) Elias

8) Owens

9) Johnson

10) Cuevas (Kopech by September?)

 

I'd rather see us get a solid #2 or top #3 starter, which would make us look like this:

 

1) Price

2) ________

3) Porcello

4) Wright

5) Pomeranz

6) ERod

7) Kelly

8) Elias

9) Owens

10) Johnson/Cuevas (Kopech by September?)

 

Maybe if we pinch our pennies we can get a decent SP'er (via trade?), a couple RP'ers AND someone like Encarnacion.

 

 

[southpaw777]

The Sox wouldn't be giving him any more money.

 

If they can get him without giving up significant talent, it seems like a solid move. Santana gives has averaged 200 IP/4.00 ERA over his career. You stash E-rod, let him develop a bit more. You build significant rotation depth before an offseason with very few starters. Take the pressure off Johnson/Owens and maybe use them as trade chips for a key upgrade.

 

You dont "stash" Erod after his last performance. You see if its for real this time. Sure looked like it. We dont need Santana Right now IMO.

Porcello Wright price, Pomeranz and Erod seem pretty good to me right now...Why stash Erod? Makes zero sense right now.

Depth is importand, but unless pomeranz is slated to go to the pen, which hes not right now, then this doesnt make a lot of sense to me.

Edited July 20, 2016 by southpaw777

[Dojji]

Getting Santana would be a side way move I'm opposed to. I'm with Moon on this. Locking into a two year contract for $26M plus giving away additional prospects would be the dumbest thing to do at this point.

 

Now that we have Pomeranz, just play it out and see what's in store.

 

don't see how adding durability and consistency to the bottom of the rotation is a sideways move. Comparing the overall value of a Buchholz vs a Santana, there is no comparison.

[Dojji]

Santana for Buch would be a plus for this year, assuming he does better than ERod or someone else gets hurt, but I'm looking for better than Santana for 2016 and 2017. The $13M to Santana might prohibit us from getting better.

 

Get better and put it where? All of Price Wright, Porcello, and Pomeranz are under contradct through at least 2018. Adding Santana would lock the rotation down with 5 pitchers for the next 2 seasons after this one and relegate the rookie starters to the role they're supposed to be used for -- injury relief.

 

besides, Santana has every ability to pitch up from time to time, he's been as good as a solid 2-3 starter, how much "better" are you going to get for the flipping 5 spot in the rotation?

[Dojji]

We would be giving him money in 2016 ($13M) and 2017 ($13M), and we could be very tight on the luxury tax next winter.

 

I like having nice SP'er depth, but I'd rather have higher quality in our 1 to 5 slots. Next year's rotation and starter depth looks like this right now:

1) Price

2) Porcello

3) Wright

4) Pomeranz

5) Recovering from injury

6) Trash

7) Trash

8) Crapshoot

9) Crapshoot

10) Trash (or needlessly rush a prospect by September?)

 

 

Fixed that for you.

 

No no no, no more dabbling around with the Bastard Batallion and no more starting the clock on prospects better served by developing with time and patience. I've had enough of the illusion of depth. Bring in a 5th strong professional starter and I will be quite happy thank you.

Edited July 20, 2016 by Dojji

[Bellhorn04]

You dont "stash" Erod after his last performance. You see if its for real this time. Sure looked like it. We dont need Santana Right now IMO.

Porcello Wright price, Pomeranz and Erod seem pretty good to me right now...Why stash Erod? Makes zero sense right now.

Depth is importand, but unless pomeranz is slated to go to the pen, which hes not right now, then this doesnt make a lot of sense to me.

 

I agree that ERod deserves more of a look after his good performance.

[Dojji]

Does that mean this team is supposed to not many any improvements so that E-rod gets what he "deserves?"

 

This isn't how big markets work ppl

[Bellhorn04]

Does that mean this team is supposed to not many any improvements so that E-rod gets what he "deserves?"

 

This isn't how big markets work ppl

 

If we trade for Santana what do we do with E-Rod? You're ready to move on from him altogether?

[Jack Flap]

If Rodriguez can return to the form that was expected of him, then someone like Santana is not necessarily an "improvement" by any means.

 

By my count, E-Rod is lined up for two more starts prior to the trade deadline...I think we see how he looks and make a decision from there as to whether we need another starter for this season or not. If we do, I'd still sooner go for someone like Hellickson who does not lock us in for 2017-18.

 

Also, no way we see Kopech in September. I wouldn't even bet on seeing him in 2017.

[Dojji]

If we trade for Santana what do we do with E-Rod? You're ready to move on from him altogether?

 

Hell no. He'll have value as a swingman and injury replacement. Just because we have 5 guys doesn't mean none of them ever get hurt. I'd rather force deserving young pitchers into swing roles until a spot opens, than force prospects into the big leagues because we didn't bother to stock the larder.

 

Big markets just do not give rotation spots to struggling youngsters. Enough Buchholzes. We have the resources to keep a staff of 5 professional starting pitchers. Earn your keep now or have your role reduced, that simple.

Edited July 20, 2016 by Dojji

[Hugh2]

Santana has been way more reliable and consistent than Buch. I never even implied a otherwise. I never meant to imply IP and consistency is not important, but only that performance level has importance as well.

 

Santana's ERA- and IP have been much more steady than Buch's...

...........IP/ERA-

Year... SANT....... BUCH

2010 223/98 174/ 54

2011 229/86 83/ 82

2012 178/133 189/ 107

2013 211/80 108/ 42

2014 196/109 170/ 133

2015 108/99 113/ 77

2016 98/96 81/ 132

 

Clearly Buch has been all over the map with his ups and downs and missing time. I'd rather have Santana's record since 2010 than Buch's, but Buch does have 4 of the best 5 ERA- seasons. Buch has also had 2 of the worst three, and those two have been in the past 3 years.

 

On IP, Santana blows Buch away. I realize that has a lot of value. He's been over 170 IP 5 out of the previous 6 seasons, while Buch has just three times. Buch's highest IP (189) was bested by Santana in 4 of the last 6 seasons, including 3 times by more than 20 IP.

 

My point was meant to show that posters here seem to despise Buch, who makes $13M a year. Santana makes $13M a year as well, but is signed for that amount for 2 more years.

 

Clearly, nobody here wants Buch for the next 2 years at $26M. How many here would sign Santana for $26M/2 this coming winter (assuming he doesn't get hurt or flop the second half?)

 

If your answer is no, then the trade may not make sense, even with the gain we might get by replacing ERod with Santana to finish out the year.

 

If your answer is yes, then the deal is a resounding no-brainer. I will add that the $13M luxury tax hit will lessen what we can spend elsewhere.

 

I see Santana as a 4th starter or solid 5 slot starter...kinda like Dempster. I prefer to rebuild a staff from the top or near the top rather trying to rebuild from the bottom of near the bottom. Perhaps the added value of having Santana for the remainder of 2016 tilts the balance in favor of "yes".

 

(That's assuming the trade rumor is valid.)

 

 

4 of the 5 best ERA seasons? Yes if you include Clays first season when he started 3 games, and the other 3 seasons where he started 14, 16, and 18 games. Out of those seasons where he had a good ERA in only one of them he started a substantial amount of games when he threw 28.

 

Clay has a career ERA that is .16 under Santana. They are nowhere even close to being the same pitcher, Santana has 2X the amount of innings pitched and it only looks close if you go back several years because for the first time in his life he missed substantial time. So unless your argument is that Santana is now going to be an injury risk....I don't see where else this conversation needs to go.

 

Santana > Clay....and it's not really that close.

[mvp 78]

If Rodriguez can return to the form that was expected of him, then someone like Santana is not necessarily an "improvement" by any means.

 

By my count, E-Rod is lined up for two more starts prior to the trade deadline...I think we see how he looks and make a decision from there as to whether we need another starter for this season or not. If we do, I'd still sooner go for someone like Hellickson who does not lock us in for 2017-18.

 

Also, no way we see Kopech in September. I wouldn't even bet on seeing him in 2017.

 

I doubt we would see Kopech in 2018. He throws fire, but can't control it all that well.

[Slasher9]

I was on board with this until i learned that Santana served an 80 game suspension for PED usage. Now, not so much. I think my position on signing suspended PED users is pretty well known.

 

With you 100%. No way I want a ped guy on my team. Let him go play for the Yankees.....

[mvp 78]

With you 100%. No way I want a ped guy on my team. Let him go play for the Yankees.....

 

The only PED guys that I wouldn't want on my team are ARod and Braun. Of all the PED guys, those guys are the most despicable to me.

[Slasher9]

The only PED guys that I wouldn't want on my team are ARod and Braun. Of all the PED guys, those guys are the most despicable to me.

 

For me it comes down to zero tolerance. If you sign/ trade for / pay a single ped user that shows other players (and even worse kids) that there is huge monetary rewards for being a cheater and for taking shortcuts. It also prevents a kid who has trained the "right" way from getting on a big league roster because it is occupied by a cheater.

JMO

[mvp 78]

For me it comes down to zero tolerance. If you sign/ trade for / pay a single ped user that shows other players (and even worse kids) that there is huge monetary rewards for being a cheater and for taking shortcuts. It also prevents a kid who has trained the "right" way from getting on a big league roster because it is occupied by a cheater.

JMO

 

To me, that's a slippery slope. What if JBJ gets popped? Do we then move on from him if it was a one time mistake?

[Hugh2]

I doubt we would see Kopech in 2018. He throws fire, but can't control it all that well.

 

This is the one thing people are missing with him. Yes, he hit 105 the other day but him throwing 100 MPH wasn't exactly new information. We've already known he has the plus fastball but he still needs to develop his secondaries and improve his command, without much more development he might end up better suited for the pen. However we aren't anywhere near there yet, he has reportedly cleaned up his delivery and given the improvements he's made with his time in the system it's not unreasonable to project he can make those adjustments. But he still has to do it!!!

[mvp 78]

Plus, that gun was running "very hot" according to Soxprospects. It probably wasn't a true 105. Maybe 102?

[moonslav59]

I was on board with this until i learned that Santana served an 80 game suspension for PED usage. Now, not so much. I think my position on signing suspended PED users is pretty well known.

 

Maybe if Buch had taken roids, he'd have been stronger and more durable.

[moonslav59]

4 of the 5 best ERA seasons? Yes if you include Clays first season when he started 3 games, and the other 3 seasons where he started 14, 16, and 18 games. Out of those seasons where he had a good ERA in only one of them he started a substantial amount of games when he threw 28.

 

I use ERA- not ERA. I used only seasons starting in 2010. Buch had 4 of the 5 best ERA- seasons. I should have added " or partial seasons".

[moonslav59]

Get better and put it where? All of Price Wright, Porcello, and Pomeranz are under contradct through at least 2018. Adding Santana would lock the rotation down with 5 pitchers for the next 2 seasons after this one and relegate the rookie starters to the role they're supposed to be used for -- injury relief.

 

besides, Santana has every ability to pitch up from time to time, he's been as good as a solid 2-3 starter, how much "better" are you going to get for the flipping 5 spot in the rotation?

 

I see Santana as a good 4 starter. He is better than anything we have below ERod, and he might end up being better than ERod over the next 2 years. Yes, he can pitch like a #3, but he may also pitch like a #5 or 6.

 

I prefer acquiring a solid 2 or 3 in replacing our #5 starter. I'm willing to spend more than $13M a year or give up prospects/players like Swihart, Devers, Holt and maybe a mid-level prospect or two.

[Hugh2]

4 of the 5 best ERA seasons? Yes if you include Clays first season when he started 3 games, and the other 3 seasons where he started 14, 16, and 18 games. Out of those seasons where he had a good ERA in only one of them he started a substantial amount of games when he threw 28.

 

I use ERA- not ERA. I used only seasons starting in 2010. Buch had 4 of the 5 best ERA- seasons. I should have added " or partial seasons".

 

And only being able to pitch a partial season drastically reduces his value as a starter.

[Hugh2]

Plus, that gun was running "very hot" according to Soxprospects. It probably wasn't a true 105. Maybe 102?

 

I also heard that it was confirmed on multiple guns. Wasn't just one gun, still pretty insane....how fast is the changeup? 92 MPH???

[moonslav59]

We would be giving him money in 2016 ($13M) and 2017 ($13M), and we could be very tight on the luxury tax next winter.

 

I like having nice SP'er depth, but I'd rather have higher quality in our 1 to 5 slots. Next year's rotation and starter depth looks like this right now:

1) Price

2) Porcello

3) Wright

4) Pomeranz

5) Recovering from injury

6) Trash

7) Trash

8) Crapshoot

9) Crapshoot

10) Trash (or needlessly rush a prospect by September?)

 

Fixed that for you.

 

I meant Kopech may be ready by September 2017.

 

No no no, no more dabbling around with the Bastard Batallion and no more starting the clock on prospects better served by developing with time and patience. I've had enough of the illusion of depth. Bring in a 5th strong professional starter and I will be quite happy thank you.

 

I want to acquire a 5th starter, but not a 4/5 slot type pitcher. We have seen enough of them let us down.

 

I prefer a solid #2/3 slot starter instead.

[mvp 78]

I want to see what Brian Johnson has before all is said and done.

[moonslav59]

 

And only being able to pitch a partial season drastically reduces his value as a starter.

 

I totally get that, but unless my numbers were wrong, I had Santana pitching 37 or 47 more IP per season than Buch. That's not comparing a half season pitcher to a full season pitcher as many seem to be portraying the comparison. That's the point I was trying to make. Buch's 91 ERA- compared to Santana's 100 ERA- makes up some of the disparity in IP.

 

Maybe it doesn't bring it as close as I made it out to be by saying it "nearly" evens them out. In hindsight, I wish I worded that differently.

[moonslav59]

I want to see what Brian Johnson has before all is said and done.

 

He's going to have to put up some pro-longed good numbers in AAA before that happens.