2016 Trade and Roster Move Speculation thread

[Jack Flap]

'While there have yet to be any firm indications that the Yankees will shop Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman this summer, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that some executives from other clubs are becoming more and more convinced that the Yankees will indeed hold a “two-tiered auction” on their imposing lefties. In Miller’s case, the belief is that the Yankees will name a specific price for interested organizations (e.g. Kyle Schwarber from the Cubs) and tell the teams to take it or leave it. Chapman’s status as a free agent at season’s end gives him a lower price tag, Olney notes. He goes on to list the Nationals, Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs and Red Sox as teams with potential interest in late-inning bullpen help, though I personally have a tough time envisioning the Sox and Yankees connecting for a trade of that magnitude.'

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/06/andrew-miller-trade-rumor-aroldis-chapman.html

 

 

If there's any team out there crazy enough to offer someone like Schwarber for a reliever, maybe we should think about shopping Kimbrel.

[bosoxmal]

Once we get past Moncada, our minor leaguers are just names to me. So I can't put them in my comments. As far as the present roster is concerned, I can see eRod, Hanigan and even Young, going. Not going, i would guess, are Leon or Swihart. Swihart looks like the updated Nava. OF, IB, DH (after Papi has given way to a runner). In time, a full-timer in LF.

[harmony]

MLB Daily Dish columnist Chris Cotillo offers his Red Sox trade deadline preview:

 

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2016/7/1/12062670/boston-red-sox-trade-deadline-preview

[Spudboy]

MLB Daily Dish columnist Chris Cotillo offers his Red Sox trade deadline preview:

 

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2016/7/1/12062670/boston-red-sox-trade-deadline-preview

 

That article offered no new insight. Just regurgitation of what we all have known for two months.

 

Thanks for posting it anyway.

[moonslav59]

Sox just outrighted Mike Miller to AAA.

 

That removes him from the 40 man roster.

 

Anybody hear rumors on who will be the addition to the 40 man roster?

[moonslav59]

If there's any team out there crazy enough to offer someone like Schwarber for a reliever, maybe we should think about shopping Kimbrel.

 

Maybe we could get someone like Margot plus another 3 decent prospects for him.

 

LOL

[bosoxmal]

What overall affect will the "International Signing Ban" have on this year's free agency?

[bosoxmal]

If they'd develop a decent curve ball and dump the slider they'd all last longer. College coaches take heed (and learn something)

[moonslav59]

What overall affect will the "International Signing Ban" have on this year's free agency?

 

I'd guess none.

 

It may affect us 3-6 years from now.

[Kimmi]

Sox just outrighted Mike Miller to AAA.

 

That removes him from the 40 man roster.

 

Anybody hear rumors on who will be the addition to the 40 man roster?

 

I believe it will be O'Sullivan for Sunday's start.

[moonslav59]

I believe it will be O'Sullivan for Sunday's start.

 

Okay- maybe, but he's already on the 40 man roster. Who is going to be added to the 40 man?

[Kimmi]

Okay- maybe, but he's already on the 40 man roster. Who is going to be added to the 40 man?

 

My bad, but I did not see his name on the 40 man at Sox Prospects.

[moonslav59]

The next time we think about filling a big need area with a big name FA, think about this....

 

Top Free Agent Signings by Dollar Amount from 1999 to 2016

1999: K Brown $105M/7, Piazza $91M/7

2000: K Griffey Jr. $117M/9

2001: ARod $252M/10, M Ramirez $160M/8, M Hampton $121M/8

2002: Giambi $120M/7, B Bonds $90M/5

2003: S Rolen $90M/8

2005: C Beltran $119M/7

2007: A Soriano $136M/8, B Zito $126M/7, J Schmidt $47M/3

2008: ARod $275M/10, C Zambrano $92M/5, T Hunter $90M/5, Suzuki $90M/5, Buehrle $56M/4

2009: Teixeira $180M/8, Sabathia $161M/7, M Young $80M/5

2010: M Holliday $120M/7

2011: Mauer $184M/8, Crawford $142M/7, Werth $126M/7, C Lee $120M/5, A Dunn $56M/4

2012: Pujols $240M/10, Fielder $214M/9. Kemp $160M/8, Sabathia $122M/5, J Reyes $106M/6, CJ Wilson $78M/5, Buehrle $56M/4, Danks $75M/5

2013: Greinke $147M/8 (opted out), J Hamilton $125M/5. Cespedes $75M/3E Jackson $52M/4, R Soriano $28M/2

2014: Cano $240M/10, Tanaka $155M/7, Ellsbury $153M/7, Choo $130M/7, Pence $90M/5, B McCann $85M/5

2015: Scherzer $210M/7, Lester $155M/6, E Andrus $120M/8, Sandoval $95M/5, H Ramirez $88M/4, E Sanatan $55M/4, $68M/5 VMart

2016: Price $217M/7, Greinke $207M/6, Heywood $184M/8, C Davis $161M/7, J Upton $133M/6, Cueto, $130M/6, Zimmerman $110M/5, Samardzja $90M/5

I may not be completely accurate on who was a FA or extension, and I may have missed some top free agent signings, but out of these 60 or so big FA signings, how many have been clear success stories? How many have been moderately successful? How many have been bad signings, and how many have been horrible signings?

(Note: dollar amounts on signings in the early 2000’s and late 1900’s should reflect inflation in baseball salaries. Some players were left off this list due to that aspect.)

Extensions: Stanton $325M/13, Miggy $248M/8, Votto $225M/10, Kershaw $215M/7, Jeter $189M/10, Verlander $180M/7, F Hernandez $175M/7, Strasburg $175M/7, Posey $167M/9, Tulowizki $158M/10, AGon $154M/7, Trout $145M/6, Hamels $144M/6, Helton $142M/9 (2003), D Wright $138M/8, Jo Santana $138M/6, F Freeman $135M/8, M Cain $128M/6, V Wells $126M/7, R Howard $125M/5, Pedroia $110M/8, R Braun $105M/5, Pujols $100M/7, C Lee $100M/6 (2007), R Zimmerman $100M/6, Longoria $100M/6, K seager $100M/7, Wainwright $98M/5

 

 

 

[Michfan]

Not getting any breaks from any of umps tonight.

[Kimmi]

Not getting any breaks from any of umps tonight.

 

Hey Mich, do you know we have a game thread? Not trying to be snarky - sincere question.

[moonslav59]

I can see why someone might want to avoid the game thread these days.

[Spudboy]

I can see why someone might want to avoid the game thread these days.

 

I don't.

 

Yes, the GTs are reactionary. But so what? It's a game. It's entertainment. Fans are involved and emotional. To me, that is a healthy sign.

[mvp 78]

I can see why someone would avoid watching the Sox these days.

[moonslav59]

I don't.

 

Yes, the GTs are reactionary. But so what? It's a game. It's entertainment. Fans are involved and emotional. To me, that is a healthy sign.

 

I meant because of the score.

It was a joke.

However, I do avoid game threads due to usually watching the games on delay, so I can fast forward commercials.

I'm also someone who gets perturbed over small sample size definitive judgments, and those threads are often loaded with them.

[Spudboy]

I meant because of the score.

It was a joke.

However, I do avoid game threads due to usually watching the games on delay, so I can fast forward commercials.

I'm also someone who gets perturbed over small sample size definitive judgments, and those threads are often loaded with them.

 

Did you ever sit at a bar and watch a game with other patrons of the bar?

 

This is the closest to that experience that you can come.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

Matt Moore rumors build. Rays starter Matt Moore still hasn’t returned to his 2012-2013 form after having Tommy John surgery in 2014, but he’s attracting trade interest, with the Rangers one of several interested clubs. The Rays could be motivated to deal Moore in part because they could soon have a starting pitching surplus.

 

I know this guy isn't the ideal pitcher to go after, but he's still young (just turned 27), and he is under team control for 3 1/3 years:

 

16:$5M, 17:$7M club option ($2.5M buyout), 18:$9M club option ($1M buyout), 19:$10M club option ($0.75M buyout)

 

It's a big risk, no doubt, but maybe we should kick the tires.

[Behindenemylines]

MLBTR reports...

 

Matt Moore rumors build. Rays starter Matt Moore still hasn’t returned to his 2012-2013 form after having Tommy John surgery in 2014, but he’s attracting trade interest, with the Rangers one of several interested clubs. The Rays could be motivated to deal Moore in part because they could soon have a starting pitching surplus.

 

I know this guy isn't the ideal pitcher to go after, but he's still young (just turned 27), and he is under team control for 3 1/3 years:

 

16:$5M, 17:$7M club option ($2.5M buyout), 18:$9M club option ($1M buyout), 19:$10M club option ($0.75M buyout)

 

It's a big risk, no doubt, but maybe we should kick the tires.

 

Rays will never trade him to a team within the division.

[Kimmi]

I can see why someone would avoid watching the Sox these days.

 

I won't avoid watching the Sox, but I will avoid the game threads. They break my spirit, and that's not a good thing.

[harmony]

The next time we think about filling a big need area with a big name FA, think about this....

 

Top Free Agent Signings by Dollar Amount from 1999 to 2016

1999: K Brown $105M/7, Piazza $91M/7

2000: K Griffey Jr. $117M/9

2001: ARod $252M/10, M Ramirez $160M/8, M Hampton $121M/8

2002: Giambi $120M/7, B Bonds $90M/5

2003: S Rolen $90M/8

2005: C Beltran $119M/7

2007: A Soriano $136M/8, B Zito $126M/7, J Schmidt $47M/3

2008: ARod $275M/10, C Zambrano $92M/5, T Hunter $90M/5, Suzuki $90M/5, Buehrle $56M/4

2009: Teixeira $180M/8, Sabathia $161M/7, M Young $80M/5

2010: M Holliday $120M/7

2011: Mauer $184M/8, Crawford $142M/7, Werth $126M/7, C Lee $120M/5, A Dunn $56M/4

2012: Pujols $240M/10, Fielder $214M/9. Kemp $160M/8, Sabathia $122M/5, J Reyes $106M/6, CJ Wilson $78M/5, Buehrle $56M/4, Danks $75M/5

2013: Greinke $147M/8 (opted out), J Hamilton $125M/5. Cespedes $75M/3E Jackson $52M/4, R Soriano $28M/2

2014: Cano $240M/10, Tanaka $155M/7, Ellsbury $153M/7, Choo $130M/7, Pence $90M/5, B McCann $85M/5

2015: Scherzer $210M/7, Lester $155M/6, E Andrus $120M/8, Sandoval $95M/5, H Ramirez $88M/4, E Sanatan $55M/4, $68M/5 VMart

2016: Price $217M/7, Greinke $207M/6, Heywood $184M/8, C Davis $161M/7, J Upton $133M/6, Cueto, $130M/6, Zimmerman $110M/5, Samardzja $90M/5

I may not be completely accurate on who was a FA or extension, and I may have missed some top free agent signings, but out of these 60 or so big FA signings, how many have been clear success stories? How many have been moderately successful? How many have been bad signings, and how many have been horrible signings?

(Note: dollar amounts on signings in the early 2000’s and late 1900’s should reflect inflation in baseball salaries. Some players were left off this list due to that aspect.)

Extensions: Stanton $325M/13, Miggy $248M/8, Votto $225M/10, Kershaw $215M/7, Jeter $189M/10, Verlander $180M/7, F Hernandez $175M/7, Strasburg $175M/7, Posey $167M/9, Tulowizki $158M/10, AGon $154M/7, Trout $145M/6, Hamels $144M/6, Helton $142M/9 (2003), D Wright $138M/8, Jo Santana $138M/6, F Freeman $135M/8, M Cain $128M/6, V Wells $126M/7, R Howard $125M/5, Pedroia $110M/8, R Braun $105M/5, Pujols $100M/7, C Lee $100M/6 (2007), R Zimmerman $100M/6, Longoria $100M/6, K seager $100M/7, Wainwright $98M/5

Just as an aside, Robinson Cano has been valued at $80.9 million two-and-a-half years into his 10-year, $240 million contract despite an injury-marred first half of the 2015 season:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3269&position=2B#value

 

Felix Hernandez has been valued at $115.4 million three-and-a-half years into his seven-year, $175 million extension (although the righthander has been on the disabled list for more than a month):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4772&position=P#value

 

Kyle Seager has been valued at $51.9 million a year and a half into his seven-year, $100 million extension:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9785&position=3B#value

 

Nelson Cruz has been valued at $54 million a year and a half into his four-year, $58 million contract:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2434&position=OF#value

 

The Seattle Mariners have baseball's longest postseason drought but contended in Cano's first season and are currently 1.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race.

Edited July 3, 2016 by harmony

[Jack Flap]

I can see why someone might want to avoid the game thread these days.

 

Actually, reading the game thread and avoiding the game itself is starting to look like a good option.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

Did you ever sit at a bar and watch a game with other patrons of the bar?

 

This is the closest to that experience that you can come.

 

moon doesn't go out and socialize.

[moonslav59]

Just as an aside, Robinson Cano has been valued at $80.9 million two-and-a-half years into his 10-year, $240 million contract despite an injury-marred first half of the 2015 season:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3269&position=2B#value

 

Felix Hernandez has been valued at $115.4 million three-and-a-half years into his seven-year, $175 million extension (although the righthander has been on the disabled list for more than a month):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4772&position=P#value

 

Kyle Seager has been valued at $51.9 million a year and a half into his seven-year, $100 million extension:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9785&position=3B#value

 

Nelson Cruz has been valued at $54 million a year and a half into his four-year, $58 million contract:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2434&position=OF#value

 

The Seattle Mariners have baseball's longest postseason drought but contended in Cano's first season and are currently 1.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race.

 

Some of those guys were extensions. I was trying to focus more on the idea of viewing big FA signings as the answer to a team's biggest problems. Also, to highlight just how hard it is to choose wisely when making a big signing.

 

So many posters cry for the next big signing, then blame the GM for "choosing wrongly" when the odds are greatly stacked against "choosing wisely". It's like the movie War Games, where the best choice is "not to play the game".

 

I'll take your choice of Cano. No doubt he's helped the M's greatly, but it's a 10 year deal on a team with a restricted budget. Plus, when you look at the early years of his deal, when the most was expected from him, he still has not given the M's the same WAR he had given the Yanks in the prior 4 years with the Yanks:

6.3 2010

5.1 2011

7.6 2012

5.8 2013

24.8/4 years= 6.2 avg

 

with M's:

5.2 2014

2.1 2015

3.1 in 1/2 of 2016

10.4/ 2.5 yrs= 4.1 avg

 

I think the M's expected better than a 4.1 WAR pace over his first 3 years. They expected better knowing they'd probably get worse down the back 4-5 years of his deal.

 

Yeah, the value page on fangraph's might say he was "worth it", but can you honestly say he's produced like they hoped he would have? Like they expected him to produce?

 

Right now, I can see the argument for saying he's been an overall "plus signing", but not a clear success, and by the end of the 10 years, my guess is the signing will be viewed as an overall negative. And, he's a guy we point to as an example of a signing working for the team!

 

I know it's hard for you to do, but forget the fangraph value page for a moment, look over the list of just the top 60 or so FA signings on my list, and tell me how many were clear success signings and how many were plus signings based on team expectations and how much these players helped their team win a ring or significantly improve to the point where they got close to winning it all..

 

[moonslav59]

Rays will never trade him to a team within the division.

 

The Rays have new management. One never knows.

[moonslav59]

moon doesn't go out and socialize.

 

Not to bars you frequent.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

Not to bars you frequent.

 

No doubt, because people actually have fun in the places I go.