A Realistic View at 2016

Nick · October 8, 2016

Moon is correct in assessing this team. We have a young core of good position players, but that may not be enough. Great pitching still trumps great hitting team.

That is why you don't ignore the possibility of trading for a top of the line starter. Sure it's still a gamble. But Price has been ineffective during post season games. Porcello is new to the arena. E Rod may get there someday, just not now. It's probably easier to rebuild position spots than developing an ace. Sox had Lester and that's all that I can remember.

Schilling pitched in big games successfully with Arizona before coming to Red Sox. Beckett did the same with Miami before being traded to Red Sox.

That is also why Clay Buchholtz maybe our best starter in the playoffs. He has the best stuff on our team if he can put it together.

Edited October 8, 2016 by Nick

moonslav59 · October 8, 2016

In mind, nobody is untouchable, but clearly there are guys you try very hard to hold onto. Here's my list of who to keep (in order):

(last controlled year)

1) Betts (2020-I might try to lock him up soon.)

2) Benintendi (2022- He's got several more years of team control than Bogey & Bradley)

3) Bradley (2020- Hope for more consistency)

4) Bogey (2019- just 3 yrs left- Dubon in the wings)

5) ERod (2021 or 2022- still has enormous upside)

6) Moncada (??- still has top value)

7) Porcello (2019- high priced but indispensable)

8) Pedey (2021- still a force but will decline)

9) Groome (??- far away but with a lot of promise)

10) Kopech (??- may be ready by mid 2017)

11) Swihart (??- I feel many GM want this kid.)

12) Devers (?? May be blocked.)

13) Wright (2020- 4 years is nice)

14) Vazquez (2020- hope his offense pick up)

15) Pomeranz (2018 at a low cost)

16) Ramirez (2018 or 2019 w vesting option)

17) Leon (2019- less years than Swi & Vaz)

18) C Smith (2020)

19) Kimbrel (2017 or 2018)

20) Price (2018 or 2022 -opt out)

With three catchers in my top 17 and the catcher situation in MLB at a near alltime low, I'm pretty sure that if a blockbuster is made, Swihart or Vazquez will be included. With Swihart's value higher at catcher, I think he's the one to go.With 3B in question, one could argue for keeping both Moncada and Devers until we know which one we want. I'm thinking we don't have that luxury. We are going to have to choose one and trade the other. Depending on who our trading partner is and if they want a more immediate payoff or not, I'm thinking we may get a 1 year bridge at 3B and go with Devers. Moncada has tremendously high trade value.

I'm not devaluing these kids, but I think it might make more sense to trade Moncada and Swihart as part of a package to get an ace type pitcher. I think those two offer a great start to a phone call.

I'm hoping the White Sox back off their demands for ML talent (JBJ) and look to the long view. They have a lot of pieces we could use, and we have plenty of young talent to offer. If we can get them to back off any of my top 5 players, I'd go all out to get Quintana (or Sale), Robertson and Todd Frazier.

Maybe they'd take Moncada, Swihart, Shaw, Kopech, Basabe, Owens and Johnson. Maybe not.

harmony · October 8, 2016

I bet Buchholz comes out Sunday and dominates, just to spite everyone, and just because he can.

After the Red Sox lost two games on the road in the 2009 American League Divisional Series, starter Clay Buchholz pitched well in Game 3 at Fenway Park only to be let down by the bullpen as the Los Angeles Angels swept the series:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200910110.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2009_ALDS2.shtml

I remember listening to Game 3 on my transistor radio as I walked the three miles home from church that Sunday.

moonslav59 · October 8, 2016

After the Red Sox lost two games on the road in the 2009 American League Divisional Series, starter Clay Buchholz pitched well in Game 3 at Fenway Park only to be let down by the bullpen as the Los Angeles Angels swept the series:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200910110.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2009_ALDS2.shtml

I remember listening to Game 3 on my transistor radio as I walked the three miles home from church that Sunday.

What I remember most about that series was the decision to use VMart over VTek as Lester's personal catcher.

Yeah, Buch gave us 5 good IP and bard went 2 scoreless innings, then the roof caved in. Payback for the Hendu HR, I guess.

Wagner and Papelbon let up 5 runs in 1.2 innings, and we lost 7-6.

Nick · October 8, 2016

1) Betts (2020-I might try to lock him up soon...........KEEPER....EXTEND HIM

2) Benintendi (2022- He's got several more years of team control than Bogey & Bradley)...KEEPER...CHEAP, UNDER TEAM CONTROL

3) Bradley (2020- Hope for more consistency)....KEEPER...GREAT CF...WILL ALWAYS HIT WITH SOME POWER...

4) Bogey (2019- just 3 yrs left- Dubon in the wings)....#1 TRADE CANDIDATE....EASILY REPLACEABLE DEFENSIVELY...

5) ERod (2021 or 2022- still has enormous upside)...KEEPER, CAN'T GIVE UP ON YOUNG LEFTY WITH UPSIDE, CHEAP, UNDER TEAM CONTROL

6) Moncada (??- still has top value)....KEEPER, YOU DON'T THROW AWAY $60M INVESTMENT, ATHLETE, CAN PLAY MULTIPLE POSITIONS

7) Porcello (2019- high priced but indispensable)....3 YEARS WITH REASONABLE COST, I DON'T SEE BETTER OPTIONS

8) Pedey (2021- still a force but will decline)...UNDER CONTRACT, WON'T GET ANY VALUE IN RETURN, MOST VALUABLE TO RED SOX

9) Groome (??- far away but with a lot of promise)...NO WAY WE TRADE HIM

10) Kopech (??- may be ready by mid 2017)...NO WAY WE TRADE HIM, BEST CLOSER TYPE GUY IN THE FARM

11) Swihart (??- I feel many GM want this kid.)...PERHAPS THE HIGHEST TRADE VALUE GUY

12) Devers (?? May be blocked.)...REDUNDANT WITH MONCADA..TRADE BAIT

13) Wright (2020- 4 years is nice)...KEEPER, INNING EATER AS LONG AS HE DOESN'T TRIP OVER 2B, CHEAP

14) Vazquez (2020- hope his offense pick up)...KEEPER, TRADE OTHER CATCHERS

15) Pomeranz (2018 at a low cost)...KEEPER, NO POINT IN TRADING THE GUY, WON'T GET MUCH VALUE IN RETURN,

16) Ramirez (2018 or 2019 w vesting option)...KEEPER, NOT SURE WE GET MUCH IN RETURN, WE NEED TO SEE SAM TRAVIS AND HIS UPSIDE

17) Leon (2019- less years than Swi & Vaz)...ADEQUATE DEFENSIVE CATCHER

18) C Smith (2020)...KEEPER, SOX NEEDS QUALITY RP WITH LOW COST

19) Kimbrel (2017 or 2018)...AGAIN NOT MUCH VALUE IN RETURN

20) Price (2018 or 2022 -opt out)....HE'D CLEAR THE WAIVERS

Based on my response, can we get Sales from Sox for Xander, Swihart and Devers?

Edited October 8, 2016 by Nick

harmony · October 8, 2016

1) Betts (2020-I might try to lock him up soon...........KEEPER....EXTEND HIM
2) Benintendi (2022- He's got several more years of team control than Bogey & Bradley)...KEEPER...CHEAP, UNDER TEAM CONTROL
3) Bradley (2020- Hope for more consistency)....KEEPER...GREAT CF...WILL ALWAYS HIT WITH SOME POWER...
4) Bogey (2019- just 3 yrs left- Dubon in the wings)....#1 TRADE CANDIDATE....EASILY REPLACEABLE DEFENSIVELY...
5) ERod (2021 or 2022- still has enormous upside)...KEEPER, CAN'T GIVE UP ON YOUNG LEFTY WITH UPSIDE, CHEAP, UNDER TEAM CONTROL
6) Moncada (??- still has top value)....KEEPER, YOU DON'T THROW AWAY $60M INVESTMENT, ATHLETE, CAN PLAY MULTIPLE POSITIONS
7) Porcello (2019- high priced but indispensable)....3 YEARS WITH REASONABLE COST, I DON'T SEE BETTER OPTIONS
8) Pedey (2021- still a force but will decline)...UNDER CONTRACT, WON'T GET ANY VALUE IN RETURN, MOST VALUABLE TO RED SOX
9) Groome (??- far away but with a lot of promise)...NO WAY WE TRADE HIM
10) Kopech (??- may be ready by mid 2017)...NO WAY WE TRADE HIM, BEST CLOSER TYPE GUY IN THE FARM
11) Swihart (??- I feel many GM want this kid.)...PERHAPS THE HIGHEST TRADE VALUE GUY
12) Devers (?? May be blocked.)...REDUNDANT WITH MONCADA..TRADE BAIT
13) Wright (2020- 4 years is nice)...KEEPER, INNING EATER AS LONG AS HE DOESN'T TRIP OVER 2B, CHEAP
14) Vazquez (2020- hope his offense pick up)...KEEPER, TRADE OTHER CATCHERS
15) Pomeranz (2018 at a low cost)...KEEPER, NO POINT IN TRADING THE GUY, WON'T GET MUCH VALUE IN RETURN,
16) Ramirez (2018 or 2019 w vesting option)...KEEPER, NOT SURE WE GET MUCH IN RETURN, WE NEED TO SEE SAM TRAVIS AND HIS UPSIDE
17) Leon (2019- less years than Swi & Vaz)...ADEQUATE DEFENSIVE CATCHER
18) C Smith (2020)...KEEPER, SOX NEEDS QUALITY RP WITH LOW COST
19) Kimbrel (2017 or 2018)...AGAIN NOT MUCH VALUE IN RETURN
20) Price (2018 or 2022 -opt out)....HE'D CLEAR THE WAIVERS

Based on my response, can we get Sales from Sox for Xander, Swihart and Devers?

Before the shortstop's steep second-half slide, FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron ranked Xander Bogaerts 20th in trade value among all players:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-trade-value-11-to-20/

However, the White Sox have a younger option in 23-year-old Tim Anderson, who posted 2.2 fWAR (2.8 bWAR) in 99 games this year while the 24-year-old Bogaerts posted 4.9 fWAR (3.7 bWAR) in 157 games.

Anderson remains under team control for six seasons while Bogaerts remains under team control for only three increasingly expensive arbitration seasons.

I doubt the White Sox will trade Chris Sale this offseason.

moonslav59 · October 8, 2016

Before the shortstop's steep second-half slide, FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron ranked Xander Bogaerts 20th in trade value among all players:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-trade-value-11-to-20/

However, the White Sox have a younger option in 23-year-old Tim Anderson, who posted 2.2 fWAR (2.8 bWAR) in 99 games this year while the 24-year-old Bogaerts posted 4.9 fWAR (3.7 bWAR) in 157 games.

Anderson remains under team control for six seasons while Bogaerts remains under team control for only three increasingly expensive arbitration seasons.

I doubt the White Sox will trade Chris Sale this offseason.

The White Sox should blow up their whole team and go for a total rebuild.

They have some great trading chips (Sale, Quintana, Robertson, Abreu, and Frazier), but they have way too many holes to plug and be competitive..

It might be hard for them to realize this.

We happen to need players at all 5 of these players' positions.

harmony · October 8, 2016

The White Sox should blow up their whole team and go for a total rebuild.

They have some great trading chips (Sale, Quintana, Robertson, Abreu, and Frazier), but they have way too many holes to plug and be competitive..

It might be hard for them to realize this.

We happen to need players at all 5 of these players' positions.

A team with Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, Adam Eaton, Tim Anderson, Melky Cabrera, a healthy Brett Lawrie, Carlos Rodon, Nate Jones, Dan Jennings and Zach Duke is not far from competing after posting the same number of wins (78) this year that Red Sox posted last year.

moonslav59 · October 9, 2016

A team with Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, Adam Eaton, Tim Anderson, Melky Cabrera, a healthy Brett Lawrie, Carlos Rodon, Nate Jones, Dan Jennings and Zach Duke is not far from competing after posting the same number of wins (78) this year that Red Sox posted last year.

They have attitude issues beyond even the Sale mess. I'm not saying the GM will decide to reboot, but I think they should.

moonslav59 · October 9, 2016

Here's how I see our 2017 depth chart at each position. I am placing some players at multiple positions, if they are better than whatever else we have there.

SP: Porcello, Price, ERod, Wright, Pomeranz, Buchholz (assuming option given)

Kelly, Elias, Owens, Johnson, Haley, Cuevas, Kopech (not 2017: Groome)

RP: Kimbrel, (Buchholz, Pomeranz or Wright), Smith, Kelly, Ross, Barnes, Hembree

Abad, Scott, Workman, Ramirez, Martin, Jerez

C: Leon, Vazquez, Swihart, Holaday, Romanski, Butler

1B: Ramirez, Shaw, Swihart, Pablo, Holt, Travis, Longhi (not 2017: Ockimey)

2B: Pedroia, Betts, Moncada, Holt, Hernandez, Marrero (not 2017: Dubon)

SS: Bogaerts, Hernandez, Holt, Marrero (not 2017: Dubon)

3B: Bogaerts, Shaw, Moncada, Holt, Hernandez, Pablo, Rutledge, (Swihart?), (not 2017: Devers)

LF: Betts, Benintendi, Young, Bradley, Swihart, Holt (not 2017: Basabe)

CF: Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Young, Holt

RF: Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Young, Holt, Swihart

DH: Ramirez, Young, Moncada, Pablo, Castillo, Witte

moonslav59 · October 9, 2016

A team with Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, Adam Eaton, Tim Anderson, Melky Cabrera, a healthy Brett Lawrie, Carlos Rodon, Nate Jones, Dan Jennings and Zach Duke is not far from competing after posting the same number of wins (78) this year that Red Sox posted last year.

They also have some awful contracts and may give up some good talent for less in return, if the team takes Shields off their hands. Here's their big contracts:

Shields $44M/2 ($18.75M luxury tax hit)

Eaton: $38.4M/5 ($4.7M luxury)

Sale: $38M/3 ($6.5M luxury)

Qunitana: $37.85M/4 ($4.2M luxury)

Abreu: $34M/3 ($11.3M luxury)

Robertson: $25M/2 ($11.5M luxury)

Cabrera $15M/1 ($14M)

Frazier: Last arb year

One very big asset Quintana and Sale have to a team like the Sox is the very low luxury tax hit they have attached to their contracts. With the Sox straddling the line on a %50 tax rate next year, picking up one of these aces would be a big plus in more than one way.

It's almost shocking how the White Sox appear to have several players that match right up with just about every high need the Sox have:

Ace: Quintana or Sale

Closer/top set-up man: Robertson

3B short term solution: Frazier

1B (move HanRam to DH): Abreu

Assuming Frazier wins a $10M arb, the luxury tax cost for all five of these players combined would only be $43.5M. That's less than $9M each!

It makes me feel like offering the whole farm for all of them! We could even afford to take on Shields' contract to lessen the return needed. That would up the luxury hit to $60M, but Frazier would be gone after 1 year and Shields and Robertson after 2 years.

I'm not saying I'm for this idea, but would the CWS take this for all 5 plus Shields?

JBJ, Wright, Pomeranz, Shaw, Swihart, Moncada, Kopech, Travis, Owens, Johnson.

Maybe we could get by keeping Devers, Travis & Groome for some semblance of a farm remaining.

harmony · October 9, 2016

They also have some awful contracts and may give up some good talent for less in return, if the team takes Shields off their hands. Here's their big contracts:

Shields $44M/2 ($18.75M luxury tax hit)
Eaton: $38.4M/5 ($4.7M luxury)
Sale: $38M/3 ($6.5M luxury)
Qunitana: $37.85M/4 ($4.2M luxury)
Abreu: $34M/3 ($11.3M luxury)
Robertson: $25M/2 ($11.5M luxury)
Cabrera $15M/1 ($14M)
Frazier: Last arb year

One very big asset Quintana and Sale have to a team like the Sox is the very low luxury tax hit they have attached to their contracts. With the Sox straddling the line on a %50 tax rate next year, picking up one of these aces would be a big plus in more than one way.

It's almost shocking how the White Sox appear to have several players that match right up with just about every high need the Sox have:

Ace: Quintana or Sale
Closer/top set-up man: Robertson
3B short term solution: Frazier
1B (move HanRam to DH): Abreu

Assuming Frazier wins a $10M arb, the luxury tax cost for all five of these players combined would only be $43.5M. That's less than $9M each!

It makes me feel like offering the whole farm for all of them! We could even afford to take on Shields' contract to lessen the return needed. That would up the luxury hit to $60M, but Frazier would be gone after 1 year and Shields and Robertson after 2 years.

I'm not saying I'm for this idea, but would the CWS take this for all 5 plus Shields?

JBJ, Wright, Pomeranz, Shaw, Swihart, Moncada, Kopech, Travis, Owens, Johnson.

Maybe we could get by keeping Devers, Travis & Groome for some semblance of a farm remaining.

In an age of $20 million-a-year deals, the White Sox have no "awful contracts."

The White Sox will owe James Shields only $22 million over the next two seasons if the righthander, as expected, does not opt out of his contract:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/chicago-white-sox/

Shields may have a less-than-desirable contract but the deal is by no means crippling for a club that had less than $70 million committed to the 2017 payroll before trading for Shields and $30 million in cash.

The top White Sox salary this year was the $15.75 million to John Danks, who in May was released in the final year of his contract. With the many affordable contracts referenced, the big-market White Sox are in a great position to be major players in the free agent market this offseason.

The second name cited, Adam Eaton, is a bargain after posting a 2016 fWAR of 6.0, more than any Red Sox not named Mookie.

The reasons why Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier would be attractive trade targets for the Red Sox are the same reasons why the White Sox should build a contending team around them.

moonslav59 · October 9, 2016

The reasons why Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier would be attractive trade targets for the Red Sox are the same reasons why the White Sox should build a contending team around them.

They suck, except the guys I want... LOL.

oldtimer · October 9, 2016

They also have some awful contracts and may give up some good talent for less in return, if the team takes Shields off their hands. Here's their big contracts:

Shields $44M/2 ($18.75M luxury tax hit)
Eaton: $38.4M/5 ($4.7M luxury)
Sale: $38M/3 ($6.5M luxury)
Qunitana: $37.85M/4 ($4.2M luxury)
Abreu: $34M/3 ($11.3M luxury)
Robertson: $25M/2 ($11.5M luxury)
Cabrera $15M/1 ($14M)
Frazier: Last arb year

One very big asset Quintana and Sale have to a team like the Sox is the very low luxury tax hit they have attached to their contracts. With the Sox straddling the line on a %50 tax rate next year, picking up one of these aces would be a big plus in more than one way.

It's almost shocking how the White Sox appear to have several players that match right up with just about every high need the Sox have:

Ace: Quintana or Sale
Closer/top set-up man: Robertson
3B short term solution: Frazier
1B (move HanRam to DH): Abreu

Assuming Frazier wins a $10M arb, the luxury tax cost for all five of these players combined would only be $43.5M. That's less than $9M each!

It makes me feel like offering the whole farm for all of them! We could even afford to take on Shields' contract to lessen the return needed. That would up the luxury hit to $60M, but Frazier would be gone after 1 year and Shields and Robertson after 2 years.

I'm not saying I'm for this idea, but would the CWS take this for all 5 plus Shields?

JBJ, Wright, Pomeranz, Shaw, Swihart, Moncada, Kopech, Travis, Owens, Johnson.

Maybe we could get by keeping Devers, Travis & Groome for some semblance of a farm remaining.

Instead of concentrating totally on the White Sox and trying to get a blockbuster trade, I would look to the FA market to see if we can do anything there first. Justin Turner is on the market for third base. Maybe we could avoid picking up Frazier that way and simplify the proposed trade with the White Sox. I favor picking up Carlos Beltran for DH if we can get him off the FA market. I am probably one of very few fans that think we have weakness at catcher with 4 on the books. I would look at Wilson Ramos on the FA market and keep Vazquez, allowing the others to be traded. I understand both Kenley Jensen and Mark Melanson are FA who could help with the RP.

I have heard that E. Encarnacion is in a lawsuit dealing with passing along sexually transmitted disease. I would be reluctant to bring him aboard due to the big money involved, the length of contract likely and this unsettling legal situation.

If we could get Quintana in a trade with the WS, I would be for it, but with a single target, our offering could be much less and not deplete our prospects so deeply.

moonslav59 · October 9, 2016

Instead of concentrating totally on the White Sox and trying to get a blockbuster trade, I would look to the FA market to see if we can do anything there first. Justin Turner is on the market for third base. Maybe we could avoid picking up Frazier that way and simplify the proposed trade with the White Sox. I favor picking up Carlos Beltran for DH if we can get him off the FA market. I am probably one of very few fans that think we have weakness at catcher with 4 on the books. I would look at Wilson Ramos on the FA market and keep Vazquez, allowing the others to be traded. I understand both Kenley Jensen and Mark Melanson are FA who could help with the RP.

I have heard that E. Encarnacion is in a lawsuit dealing with passing along sexually transmitted disease. I would be reluctant to bring him aboard due to the big money involved, the length of contract likely and this unsettling legal situation.

If we could get Quintana in a trade with the WS, I would be for it, but with a single target, our offering could be much less and not deplete our prospects so deeply.

If we get Turner, it would likely be for multwiple years, therebt blocking Moncada AND Devers. I'm fine with the idea, especially if it takes Moncada or Devers to pry Quintana away from the CWS.

I'd love to get Jansen or Melancon, but Kimbrel will pout.

oldtimer · October 9, 2016

If we get Turner, it would likely be for multwiple years, therebt blocking Moncada AND Devers. I'm fine with the idea, especially if it takes Moncada or Devers to pry Quintana away from the CWS.

I'd love to get Jansen or Melancon, but Kimbrel will pout.

Let Kimbrel pout. We need quality and if we get it, the boys will have to work it out.

Spudboy · October 9, 2016

Let Kimbrel pout. We need quality and if we get it, the boys will have to work it out.

Amen.

mvp 78 · October 9, 2016

More psychoanalysis regarding Kimbrel! Fantastic? Nope, just fantastical.

Kimmi · October 9, 2016

If we get Turner, it would likely be for multwiple years, therebt blocking Moncada AND Devers. I'm fine with the idea, especially if it takes Moncada or Devers to pry Quintana away from the CWS.

I'd love to get Jansen or Melancon, but Kimbrel will pout.

Sorry if I missed this somewhere, but has Kimbrel ever stated or given an indication that he would not be happy in a non-closer's role? Maybe he's a team first guy, and he's willing to do whatever the team needs him to do.

moonslav59 · October 9, 2016

Sorry if I missed this somewhere, but has Kimbrel ever stated or given an indication that he would not be happy in a non-closer's role? Maybe he's a team first guy, and he's willing to do whatever the team needs him to do.

Maybe I'm wrong. I hope I am.

Not many closers have the mentality to not want to remain the closer.

Kimmi · October 9, 2016

Maybe I'm wrong. I hope I am.
Not many closers have the mentality to not want to remain the closer.

I'm sure his preference would be to remain the closer, but that's not the same thing as him being a pouter.

He can be disappointed in a move, and still be a great and effective teammate.

moonslav59 · October 10, 2016

I'm sure his preference would be to remain the closer, but that's not the same thing as him being a pouter.

He can be disappointed in a move, and still be a great and effective teammate.

I'll believe it when I see it.

S5Dewey · October 10, 2016

I'm sure his preference would be to remain the closer, but that's not the same thing as him being a pouter.

He can be disappointed in a move, and still be a great and effective teammate.

Here's what concerns me. He'd walked 4 people in one inning and when Farrell went out to get the ball Kimbrel didn't want to give it to him.

moonslav59 · October 10, 2016

Here's what concerns me. He'd walked 4 people in one inning and when Farrell went out to get the ball Kimbrel didn't want to give it to him.

Show me a closer with a weak ego, and I'll show you a lousy closer.

You need to have an enormous ego to be a great closer. You don't have to be cocky or a braggart, but you have to have a complete confidence and belief in yourself to be a top closer.

Kimbrel has been one of baseball's best closers over the past 5 years and longer. I'm still not convinced he has lost it. All pitchers have rough patches, and he did have an injury and recovery period during the year.

I'm not expert on psychology or what is going on in Kimbrel's mind, but I'm pretty certain he believes he should be the closer on opening day next year. His overall career could overshadow his weak stretch this year. Whether it should is up for debate.

I have no evidence to support my view here, except for maybe past histories of closers losing their roles, but I happen to think Kimbrel would not go quietly to a set-up role. I could be wrong. I've been wrong before.

I'd hope that if we pick up a great closer, he'd be okay with the set-up role and excel at it. His brief history as a set-up man has not been pretty. It worrisome to me.

BTW, I'm with S5 on the idea that Uehara should be our closer right now.

moonslav59 · October 10, 2016

Regardless of how the playoffs end, the Sox did very well over the regular season. Many thought we had very little chance of winning the division. Many had given up on JBJ and were shocked to hear so many GMs were asking for him in trade. There's other examples of players beating expectations as is usually the case in a winning year.

Here's a look at some numbers that are quite impressive:

Out of 330 MLB players with over 220 PAs (about 11 per team), here's how our players placed in OPS:

2) Ortiz 1.021

21) Betts .897

38) Ramirez .866

47) Young .850

52) Leon .845

57) Bradley .835

69) Pedroia .825

93) Bogaerts .802

That's 8 guys in the top 93. Figuring 30 teams, the norm should be about 3. Losing Papi is going to hurt, but we'll still have 7 top 30% batters.

(120 pitchers with 50+ IP- about 4 per team)

2nd Half Starter ERA- Rankings:

6) Porcello 59

25) Buchholz 73

27) Rodrigues 73

41) Price 81

85) Pomeranz 106

First Half ERA- Rankings:

6) Wright 61

8) Pomeranz 62 (w/SD)

41) Porcello 83

67) Price 98

133) Buchholz 143

I know this might be cherry-picking and wishful thinking, but if we could see more of the first half Wright and Pomernaz and the second half Porcello, Price, ERod and Buch, our rotation would be about as solid as can be. I'm not projecting that will be, but certainly there is more promise than we had before the season started.

Kimmi · October 10, 2016

Here's what concerns me. He'd walked 4 people in one inning and when Farrell went out to get the ball Kimbrel didn't want to give it to him.

Well, I wouldn't want my closer to have any different a mentality.

Lackey was the exact same way, and he got criticized all the time for showing up the manager and his teammates. He wasn't a clubhouse cancer or a bad teammate. He was just highly competitive and fiery, and there is nothing wrong with that.

Kimbrel may or may not 'pout' if he is taken out of the closer's role. I would expect him to not be happy, but I would also expect him to be a good teammate and do what's asked of him. In the meantime, I think it's unfair to assume that he'd become a problem for the team if that happened.

Kimmi · October 10, 2016

Show me a closer with a weak ego, and I'll show you a lousy closer.

You need to have an enormous ego to be a great closer. You don't have to be cocky or a braggart, but you have to have a complete confidence and belief in yourself to be a top closer.

Kimbrel has been one of baseball's best closers over the past 5 years and longer. I'm still not convinced he has lost it. All pitchers have rough patches, and he did have an injury and recovery period during the year.

I'm not expert on psychology or what is going on in Kimbrel's mind, but I'm pretty certain he believes he should be the closer on opening day next year. His overall career could overshadow his weak stretch this year. Whether it should is up for debate.

I have no evidence to support my view here, except for maybe past histories of closers losing their roles, but I happen to think Kimbrel would not go quietly to a set-up role. I could be wrong. I've been wrong before.

I'd hope that if we pick up a great closer, he'd be okay with the set-up role and excel at it. His brief history as a set-up man has not been pretty. It worrisome to me.

BTW, I'm with S5 on the idea that Uehara should be our closer right now.

You're right, most closers have big egos. That does not necessarily equate to being a 'problem' if taken out of that role. If management handles the situation properly, as they did with Koji being supplanted by Kimbrel, then there should be no issues. This is where a manager's role has its importance.

I still think Kimbrel will be a great closer. I would not be opposed to Koji finishing out the season as closer, but I think it would be unwise to give up on Kimbrel in that role.

moonslav59 · October 10, 2016

You're right, most closers have big egos. That does not necessarily equate to being a 'problem' if taken out of that role. If management handles the situation properly, as they did with Koji being supplanted by Kimbrel, then there should be no issues. This is where a manager's role has its importance.

I still think Kimbrel will be a great closer. I would not be opposed to Koji finishing out the season as closer, but I think it would be unwise to give up on Kimbrel in that role.

I haven't (for next year), and that's why I said "Kimbrel has been one of baseball's best closers over the past 5 years and longer. I'm still not convinced he has lost it." (meaning his closer role)

S5Dewey · October 10, 2016

You're right, most closers have big egos. That does not necessarily equate to being a 'problem' if taken out of that role. If management handles the situation properly, as they did with Koji being supplanted by Kimbrel, then there should be no issues. This is where a manager's role has its importance.

I still think Kimbrel will be a great closer. I would not be opposed to Koji finishing out the season as closer, but I think it would be unwise to give up on Kimbrel in that role.

I'm not in favor of giving up on Kimbrel - for next season - but we're now in a 'one and done' situation. I believe that a player's most recent performances is an indication of what his next performance will be and this is no time to find out if Kimbrel's wildness problems have been solved. Koji, OTOH, has been relatively solid in his recent outings so he'd be my closer.

I've been saying that I'm not sure Kimbrel has any idea where the ball is going when he lets go of it. In thinking about it I now believe I've been too generous. I'm confident that he doesn't know where it's going. If he did the ball wouldn't be going where it is. (Is that too logical for some people?) And we're not talking about missing his spots by inches here, it's sometimes feet! It's time to make a change.

Koji4Kloser

Edited October 10, 2016 by S5Dewey
Typo in usage of 'to' vs. 'too'. :-)

moonslav59 · October 10, 2016

Final Team WAR by Position:

Overall:

38.7 Cubs

34.0 Red Sox

27.2 Guardians

27.1 Giants

25.3 Dodgers

23.2 Nats

23.0 Jays

21.5 Cards

21.3 Angels

21.1 Mariners

Catcher: 15th @ 2.2

1B: 10th @ 4.1

2B: 10th @ 4.7

3B: 30th @0.8

SS: 6th @ 4.5

LF: 13th @ 2.0

CF: 5th @ 4.9

RF: 1st @ 7.4

DH: 2nd @ 4.5

According to WAR, our worst positions are 3B (by far), Catcher and LF. All the rest are above 15th (avg).

2nd Half:

Overall: 3rd @ 12.4

C 16th

1B: 8th

2B: 10th

SS: 18th

3B: 30th

LF: 18th

CF: 16th

RF: 2nd

DH: 9th

SP: 7th @ 13.9

RP: 9th @ 4.8

Overall: 8th @ 18.7 (just behind the Guardians & Jays)

2nd Half:

Overall: 1st @ 11.3

SP: 1st @ 9.0

RP: 13th @ 2.3

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