A Realistic View at 2016

[mvp 78]

Santana is actually very durable, his inning count per season over his career is not one of a guy who can't go deep into games. For a bad team he's averaging 5 2/3 innings a start this year, that's not bad at all.

 

It means he takes the ball every 5th day and we wouldn't have to rely on the AAA scrubs. He's probably a better get than Sonny Gray at this point. Is he better than ERod?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=3200&position=P

[a700hitter]

Santana is actually very durable, his inning count per season over his career is not one of a guy who can't go deep into games. For a bad team he's averaging 5 2/3 innings a start this year, that's not bad at all.

He can have games where he goes 8 and then he will struggle to get through the 5th with high pitch counts. In the end, his numbers usual look okay to good, but he is a frustrating rollacoaster during the season.

[moonslav59]

I don't think we get Santana or Hill. I'm doubtful we pick up any SP'er. I think we'll look at Kimbrel's health forecast and decide on trading for a RP'er near or at the deadline

[moonslav59]

Now that Espinoza has been dealth and Jason Groome signed, here's how soxprospects.com ranks our top prospects:

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/index.html

 

1) Moncada

2) Benintendi

3) Devers

4) Groome

5) Kopech

6) Travis

7) Johnson

8) Ockimey (up from #37)

9) Basabe

10) Hernandez

11) Dubon

12) Chatham

....

20) Shaun Anderson

...

27) Bobby Dalbec

28) Mike Shawaryn

 

 

[moonslav59]

With only 71 games to go, it still amazes me that Papi is on pace for his best OPS year of his career.

 

1.091 2016

1.066 2007

1.049 2006

1.026 2012

1.001 2005

.983 2004

.961 2003

.959 2013

.953 2011

.913 2015

 

2003-2007 1.014 (3rd behind Bonds & Pujols)

2008-2011 .880 (22nd behind Youkilis & others)

2012-2016 .956 (3rd behind Trout & Miggy)

 

His last 5 years are closer to his first 5 years with Boston than his middle 4 years in Boston.

 

Some other Sox players having their best career years:

JBJ .909 (.832 in a third of a season last year)

Young .846 (.793 2nd best)

Bogey .841 (.776 2nd best)

Betts .849 (.820 2nd best)

Holt .762 (.727 2nd best)

Swihart .720 (.712 last year)

Leon 1.133 (Blowing away his small sample size past)

 

Pedey's having his best OPS year since 2011.

 

Porcello is on his way to his best season ever. His ERA- is 78. His previous best seasons were 87 (2009), 89 (2014) and 107 (2013). His K-BB% is 15.6% which is over 5.6% better than his career number.

 

Steven Wright is breaking out.

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Steven Wright is breaking out.

 

He has 1 Quality Start in his past 4 outings. This break out may be running out of time.

[moonslav59]

He has 1 Quality Start in his past 4 outings. This break out may be running out of time.

 

He has appeared to struggle a bit lately, but hand-picking a sample size to highlight a struggle can go two ways: here's one for you...

 

In the last 14 days, Wright has a 0.667 WHIP.

 

 

[mvp 78]

He has appeared to struggle a bit lately, but hand-picking a sample size to highlight a struggle can go two ways: here's one for you...

 

In the last 14 days, Wright has a 0.667 WHIP.

 

 

 

He also has a 4.50 ERA over the past 14 days.

[moonslav59]

He also has a 4.50 ERA over the past 14 days.

 

True, but he had a 0.00 ERA from June 16th to 24th. That wasn't so far away.

 

LOL!

[Kimmi]

true, but he had a 0.00 era from june 16th to 24th. That wasn't so far away.

 

Lol!

 

lol

[d-money]

Santana's pitching today for the twins i believe.

[moonslav59]

I'd like to have Santana in case ERod struggles continue.

 

Its' the $26M over the next 2 years that scares me. He's not a bad pitcher to have for 2016-2017, but I'm tired of "not bad" pitchers in our rotation.

 

I'd like to take that $13M luxury tax hit, add some more money to it, and get a better pitcher than Santana this winter.

 

If that is not an option, I wouldn't mind trading Swihart, Devers, Holt and a mid level prospect for a better pitcher than Santana who gets paid less than $13M a year. Then, take the saving and apply it towards offers for Encarnacion and/or a couple decent RP'ers.

[mvp 78]

I'd like to have Santana in case ERod struggles continue.

 

Its' the $26M over the next 2 years that scares me. He's not a bad pitcher to have for 2016-2017, but I'm tired of "not bad" pitchers in our rotation.

 

I'd like to take that $13M luxury tax hit, add some more money to it, and get a better pitcher than Santana this winter.

 

If that is not an option, I wouldn't mind trading Swihart, Devers, Holt and a mid level prospect for a better pitcher than Santana who gets paid less than $13M a year. Then, take the saving and apply it towards offers for Encarnacion and/or a couple decent RP'ers.

 

Who would you want out of a deal involving Devers?

[moonslav59]

Just Devers? Maybe someone like Pomeranz.

 

My idea is to go bigger.

 

I love Swihart and Devers, but I see Swihart's value as a FT catcher for another team as being greater than a part time C/LF'er corner iF'er with us. I see Moncada being groomed to play 3B soon, so Devers may end up blocked. I like Holt, but with PAPi retiring, the need for a super sub is not quite as important. I've given up on Owens and Johnson, and normally hate selling low. I'm not even sure they have much value to other GMs, but I'd love to see what we could get for Swihart, Devers, Holts and one or two from Owens/Johnson/TBall. I doubt we could get Sale or Quintana or Salazar or Carrasco. I'm sure we couldn't get Sale or Kluber. We'd probably have to add Travis or Kopech to get Gray.

 

To be honest, I've racked my brain trying to find the perfect fit for my suggested offer. I'm not sure anyone is out there that suits my wishes. I'm not for handing these guys away for the best we can get, if that guy isn't way better than guys like Pomeranz or Santana.

[mvp 78]

I believe that Dombrowski looked into doing a larger deal, but that no one was made available.

 

I also want no part of Sonny Gray right now. He's struggling and doesn't seem like he'd help us at all this year.

 

I agree that there doesn't seem to be that perfect fit out there. The Braves don't want to move Teheran because they need to field a team next year when they open the new stadium. The White Sox are still in it for now. The Guardians have been playing too well for them to move anyone. The teams that are looking to sell have no arms that are worth spending top prospects on.

[d-money]

Would the twins trade santana for buchholz straight up? It would be like a salary dump for them. Do we have to add a prospect?

[a700hitter]

Would the twins trade santana for buchholz straight up? It would be like a salary dump for them. Do we have to add a prospect?

Maybe if we also pick up most of Buch's remaining salary. They would have a no braine option on him for 2017. LOL!

[mvp 78]

Maybe if we also pick up most of Buch's remaining salary. They would have a no braine option on him for 2017. LOL!

 

I'd pay extra for the Twins to pick up his 2017 option so that he's not on our roster next year either.

[moonslav59]

Would the twins trade santana for buchholz straight up? It would be like a salary dump for them. Do we have to add a prospect?

 

I can't imagine there isn't some team out there willing to take on Santana's full contract and give up a decent prospect. It's not like Santana is grossly overpaid. At FA prices, he might even be considered a bargain.

 

I would think, if we traded for Santana, Buchholz would be for partial salary relief as Buch is still owed about $6M counting the buyout for 2017. The Twins should demand a prospect or two- maybe Owens.

 

I wouldn't make the trade, because I want better than Santana, ven if i have to wait until this winter.

 

If ERod implodes the next two starts, I might change my mind.

[mvp 78]

http://espn.go.com/blog/mlb/rumors/post/_/id/25790/mlb-rumor-central-asking-price-for-ervin-santana

 

I believe this is where all this chatter came from. We can thank that buffoon Cafardo...

 

The Minnesota Twins hope to land a highly regarded prospect in any deal for Ervin Santana, but would take less if a team is willing to take on the remainder of the right-hander’s $28 million salary after next season, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.

 

He then goes on to say that it'll probably be the Royals or Orioles.

[mvp 78]

From MLBTR:

 

The Twins have engaged in talks with the Red Sox, with Boston keeping an eye on righty Ervin Santana, according to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press. But the teams do not appear to be lining up at the moment. Meanwhile, Minnesota still needs to decide if it wants to keep useful veterans around its talented but not fully realized core, and Berardino wonders whether it will end up making sense to part with the final two years of Santana’s deal now that he’s pitching fairly well.

One factor in the Twins’ decision making will obviously be related to the financial ramifications of any deals, but now-acting GM Rob Antony says that there isn’t a mandate to trim payroll. As Berardino tweets, Antony says that the organization doesn’t “have financial problems” in need of resolution at the deadline.

 

Twins should also hold out for the best deal possible.

[mvp 78]

http://www.twincities.com/2016/07/18/how-close-are-the-twins-that-is-the-question/

 

Relevant quotes:

 

Perhaps the Twins would be more willing to take on a bad contract of lesser value in order to make a Santana or Nolasco trade more palatable, but it appears potential trade partners will expect some sort of offset for pitchers with roughly $34 million and $18 million left on their respective deals.

 

“They have no shot of moving Nolasco or Santana for any type of legit prospect without eating some money,” said a major league scout for a National League contender. “Santana isn’t that far overpriced if he were a free agent, but I don’t see any club moving a legit prospect for him plus paying him market value.”

 

I don't see them doing a Buchholz for Santana deal. It makes no sense for the Twins unless they were given a few prospects as well.

[moonslav59]

If Santana is as good as some here seem to think he is, why aren't teams "lining up" to get him?

[mvp 78]

If Santana is as good as some here seem to think he is, why aren't teams "lining up" to get him?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/ervin-santana

 

Apparently there are multiple teams looking at him. All we are saying is that he's better than Buchholz.

 

If Buchholz is as good as a 200 IP 4.00 ERA guy, why isn't he in the rotation?

[d-money]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/ervin-santana

 

Apparently there are multiple teams looking at him. All we are saying is that he's better than Buchholz.

 

If Buchholz is as good as a 200 IP 4.00 ERA guy, why isn't he in the rotation?

 

 

Both guys have thrown no hitters i believe. Santana's durable unlike suck-holz

[Slasher9]

Santana is a proven cheater. No thank you

[a700hitter]

Santana is a proven cheater. No thank you

But someone needs to step up to make up for Price sucking

[Dojji]

But someone needs to step up to make up for Price sucking

So far this year that guy has been Steven Wright.

[moonslav59]

So far this year that guy has been Steven Wright.

 

and Porcello.

[Palodios]

If Santana is as good as some here seem to think he is, why aren't teams "lining up" to get him?

 

This is the same situation as James Shields. He's expensive and getting towards the mid 30s.