A Realistic View at 2016

[User Name]

Teheran and Miller are your controllable upside guys. Both have pitched very well and are young ... always risk coming into the division, and as always, price matters.

 

James Shields is possible too. Now, while I did not like him as a premium FA signing - he does have AL East experience, and is a good bet to at least provide some solid bulk. I would not give up much, but there is a solid case for him.

 

Some guys I think Dombrowski will be watching as the season unfolds:

 

Anibal Sanchez - who has been awful so far, but has been good before and might be a buy low opportunity.

 

Personally, the interesting guy to me if you want to take a plunge, use some prospect inventory and really go for it ... is Justin Verlander. Yes, he is on the other side of the mountain - but his fundamentals have not changed all that much - and if the Tigers slip further off the pace, it doesn't hurt to ask.

 

Verlander is a prime resurgence candidate like what Sabathia is doing for the Yankees right now, but he's sustaining better velocity and obviously has a better body for the long-run. I was thinking the same thing this morning. It's like you're me, but you don't live in a place where machete fights are still a thing.

[Dojji]

From 2014 to right now, Justin Verlander has an ERA of 4.11 and an ERA+ of 97. he is average to a tick below for the low low price of 28.8 million dollars per year for the next 3 years not counting this one. That's quite a risk, especially considering the price it would take to lure him out of Detroit.

[User Name]

I'm looking around and the closest I see to that guy is Cole Hamels... who plays for another team that still thinks it's in contention. There is no TOTR starter who's likely to be actually available right now.

 

I'll remind you that the Royals just won the world series without a true TOTR starter. Yordano Ventura and Edinson Volquez are both decent pitchers, probably not quite up to the level Price is capable of, or the level Wright has displayed so far. We have better starting pitching, right now, than last year's World Champs.

 

The Royals won with speed, defense, alert baserunning and a very strong bullpen. Other teams have won in other ways. It's not always the ace that gets you through in the playoffs. The Mets did in fact have an ace, and the Royals beat him cleanly despite a momumental effort thanks in part to a series of defensive breakdowns in late innings.

 

The Mets had arguably three aces in that series, and the Royals still took it from them.

[Dojji]

And the thing is we HAVE an ace. Price has been making a steady comeback over the last month from his horribad April. He's taken a full run off his ERA this month, and he still has a decent shot to have good numbers by the end of the year. Why buy someone else's expensive reclamation project when our own guy is rebuilding his stock? If Wright holds to form, and it's beginning to look like more of a possibility than any of us dared to hope for, then Price-Wright-Porcello isn't exactly the worst rotation anyone will be taking into the playoffs this year.

[sk7326]

Jhoulys Chachin with the Angels also has had a solid season - I would not pay a ton for him, but the Angels have the worst rated system by a mile and will be trying to convert assets (no, not Mike Trout) to help things.

[sk7326]

And the thing is we HAVE an ace. Price has been making a steady comeback over the last month from his horribad April. He's taken a full run off his ERA this month, and he still has a decent shot to have good numbers by the end of the year. Why buy someone else's expensive reclamation project when our own guy is rebuilding his stock? If Wright holds to form, and it's beginning to look like more of a possibility than any of us dared to hope for, then Price-Wright-Porcello isn't exactly the worst rotation anyone will be taking into the playoffs this year.

 

Because flags fly forever, and betting the under on Wright and Porcello is still be best way to look at things.

[Dojji]

THe Angels just traded for Chacin. I have my doubts they'll flip him at this point.

 

If we're sufficiently unhappy with Joe Kelly or just want to stretch our SP deoth, Josh Tomlin may be a not-altogether-awful option as a bottom of the rotation guy, sort of a Paul Byrd redux.

[User Name]

Tomlin is better than Byrd was results-wise, but he's very very fragile.

[Slasher9]

I'm looking around and the closest I see to that guy is Cole Hamels... who plays for another team that still thinks it's in contention. There is no TOTR starter who's likely to be actually available right now.

 

I'll remind you that the Royals just won the world series without a true TOTR starter. Yordano Ventura and Edinson Volquez are both decent pitchers, probably not quite up to the level Price is capable of, or the level Wright has displayed so far. We have better starting pitching, right now, than last year's World Champs.

 

The Royals won with speed, defense, alert baserunning and a very strong bullpen. Other teams have won in other ways. It's not always the ace that gets you through in the playoffs. The Mets did in fact have an ace, and the Royals beat him cleanly despite a momumental effort thanks in part to a series of defensive breakdowns in late innings.

 

true. there is never an "absolute". that being said.....i would take my chances with the Mets rotation in last years best of 7 series vs Royals every. single. time.

[User Name]

It wasn't the rotation. The Mets had a weak defense all over the diamond and a BP that got exposed. They lost that series because their staff's strikeout potential hid the negative impact of the defense all year long, then they ran into a team that was almost impossible to strike out and forced the defense to make plays, and they were not able to.

[S5Dewey]

From 2014 to right now, Justin Verlander has an ERA of 4.11 and an ERA+ of 97. he is average to a tick below for the low low price of 28.8 million dollars per year for the next 3 years not counting this one. That's quite a risk, especially considering the price it would take to lure him out of Detroit.

 

I liked the 4.11 at first blush. That's about 3 ER in 6 innings which keeps a team in the game. However, that ~$30/year is a major turn-off. No thanks. He can stay in Detroit.

[sk7326]

A lot of people don't fully appreciate how acutely the Royals built to their ballpark ... even with the "meh" starters, they found guys who could keep it in the yard, and if you can keep it inside the boundaries, they have a good chance to pick it.

 

What I find interesting is that the Red Sox lineup is now uniquely built to the ballpark of 2016 - not the 1977 Fenway where you loaded up on the monster, but the one we've had for a couple of decades, which is a haven for doubles and gap hits.

[sk7326]

From 2014 to right now, Justin Verlander has an ERA of 4.11 and an ERA+ of 97. he is average to a tick below for the low low price of 28.8 million dollars per year for the next 3 years not counting this one. That's quite a risk, especially considering the price it would take to lure him out of Detroit.

 

His FIP has been better than average the entire time. This year the strikeout rate is back and the walk rate has not really changed. BABIP is .269, but he has historically been good in that area.

[Dojji]

And I'm saying that for 28 million dollars a year, I want a sure thing, not a maybe.

[User Name]

You may sweeten the pot and get Detroit to kick a decent amount of cash back if they're completely out of it (which they are not).

[Dojji]

I really doubt Verlander's on the table unless the Tigers think they're ready to go into a full rebuild. Verlander is central to the Tigers' pitching core and the big reason they ever got anywhere. I don't see them trading him at all unless they're sure that it is time to rebuild from the ground up and if that's the case, then Jordan Zimmermann is also available and he'd be the guy I want.

[sk7326]

I really doubt Verlander's on the table unless the Tigers think they're ready to go into a full rebuild. Verlander is central to the Tigers' pitching core and the big reason they ever got anywhere. I don't see them trading him at all unless they're sure that it is time to rebuild from the ground up and if that's the case, then Jordan Zimmermann is also available and he'd be the guy I want.

 

I could see that - although on a Fielding Independent Level, there is not much difference.

[Bellhorn04]

And I'm saying that for 28 million dollars a year, I want a sure thing, not a maybe.

 

And if you assume luxury tax of 30%, 28 million becomes 36.4 million.

[Dojji]

That's a lot of $10 beers

[Palodios]

I brought up Verlander a few days ago, but it seems like it will be very difficult to pull off. He has about 100 million on the books for the next three plus years. Maybe Allen Craig for Verlander makes sense to offset the salary? Still seems pricey for an aging arm with a lot of miles.

[sk7326]

As always, the salary and tax is about ownership tolerance, not baseball law.

 

Verlander is not my top choice (Miller is probably). At the same time, I do think of Verlander as the sort of sneaky name Dombrowski might look at if this team gives them a reasonable hope of winning it all.

[User Name]

Miller is another flat-arm guy I wouldn't buy. Guys with complicated mechanics or timing trouble are almost always ticking time bombs.

[Palodios]

The Red Sox shouldn't be too concerned about taking on a big salary simply because free agency next year is junk. The smart move is to spend money now, and spend talent this offseason.

[Dojji]

i'm still not convinced we need to make any big plays for pitching right now. At the moment we're pretty stable 1-4, pending E-Rod making steady progress which I think he will.

 

If I'm looking to pick up talent right now it'd be guys on the bottom end of the rotation -- young guys to fill out our AAA depth a little better and possibly another veteran to stash in the minors in case he's needed.

Edited June 1, 2016 by Dojji

[Maxbialystock]

i'm still not convinced we need to make any big plays for pitching right now. At the moment we're pretty stable 1-4, pending E-Rod making steady progress which I think he will.

 

That's the way I see it. Somewhere around 1 August 2013 the Sox were in first place, as they are now, and did make a move to get one more starter. But right now the first four--Wright, Price, Porcello, and ERod--look pretty decent. Not as good as Lackey, Lester, and Buchholz were in 2013, but good enough with this amazing lineup the Sox have.

[Palodios]

I worry about ERod's health, and have a nagging concern about a knuckleballer pitching like an ace all season.

 

That being said, it seems like another lockdown bullpen arm might be more valuable to this team right now.

[southpaw777]

I brought up Verlander a few days ago, but it seems like it will be very difficult to pull off. He has about 100 million on the books for the next three plus years. Maybe Allen Craig for Verlander makes sense to offset the salary? Still seems pricey for an aging arm with a lot of miles.

 

As long as Craig stays in AAA i dont believe his salary counts against the cap.

Price is the one i really feel comfortable with.Porcello is a so,id 3 IMO, maybe a 2 on some days. Wright is having an RA Dickey CYA winning type year. Hes a flutter baller though, so I cant feel 100% about him lasting all year. Possible? Sure, but I wont hang my hat on it just because of the inconsistency of the pitch...

No on shields. No on 30m for verlander. Young and controlled is what Id like, and would be willing to let popular names go for the right guy. Its still early. In about another month the available names will start to be known. DD will be right in the thick of things. With Buchholz being one of the top names in this years FA, Id say were best to go shopping on the trade market

[Emp9]

If, on this site "they tended to moderate themselves" the actual moderator wouldn't be so adamant about reducing clutter.

 

Message boards are inherently Darwinian. The strong threads survive on their own while the weaker ones drift away into the abyss. I wouldn't ruin a strong thread by forcing other weaker threads into it and confusing the s*** out of ppl, but the Mods can do what they want. That's fine. I just don't HAVE to agree with it.

[Emp9]

It wasn't the rotation. The Mets had a weak defense all over the diamond and a BP that got exposed. They lost that series because their staff's strikeout potential hid the negative impact of the defense all year long, then they ran into a team that was almost impossible to strike out and forced the defense to make plays, and they were not able to.

 

I couldn't have said it any better. I have many many Mets fans as friends and some of them still thinks it's Familia's fault. And that's Ridiculous. It was their poor defense. Another good hitter in their lineup would've help though too.

[Bellhorn04]

I couldn't have said it any better. I have many many Mets fans as friends and some of them still thinks it's Familia's fault. And that's Ridiculous. It was their poor defense. Another good hitter in their lineup would've help though too.

 

The fact is they blew 2 9th inning leads. If they had won those 2 games they would have led the series 3-2. So it was really a very close series that turned on a couple of innings. That's baseball for ya.