The search for an ace

[Kimmi]

So your opposing view in this case about Price's contract is biased?

 

Perhaps it is, but I don't think so. Here's the way I see it.

 

I am not a fan of long term contracts. By long term, I mean most contracts over 5 years and even many over 4 years. Show me a contract that is 5+ years and I am probably going to think it's an overpay, with rare exceptions. So at least I'm consistent.

 

My opinion of whether a contract is an overpay or not is not based on whether I wanted the player or whether I like the player. That's where the bias comes in with other people's determination of whether a contract is an overpay, IMO.

 

Also, when I say that Price's contract is an overpay, people should not take that to mean that Dombrowski should not have signed him.

[a700hitter]

Perhaps it is, but I don't think so. Here's the way I see it.

 

I am not a fan of long term contracts. By long term, I mean most contracts over 5 years and even many over 4 years. Show me a contract that is 5+ years and I am probably going to think it's an overpay, with rare exceptions. So at least I'm consistent.

 

My opinion of whether a contract is an overpay or not is not based on whether I wanted the player or whether I like the player. That's where the bias comes in with other people's determination of whether a contract is an overpay, IMO.

 

Also, when I say that Price's contract is an overpay, people should not take that to mean that Dombrowski should not have signed him.

 

And those who take the opposite view don't think they are being biased either so you shouldn't characterize their views as such.

[Kimmi]

Are you serious? Price is one of the 4-5 best pitchers in baseball.

 

Hanley was a good player but is toast. fatboy has never been more than average, Porcello, who was one of my favorite opposing pitchers is probably no more than a 4, and Buch is an abject failure to develop into anywhere near his lofty potential.

 

I'm not biased. I see things for how they are without a Homer taint.

 

I usually respect your opinions. But lately you have been beating the same wrong drum over and over. You have no respect for other opinions unless they coincide with your own. It's boring.

 

1. Just because a pitcher is one of the best does not mean that you can't overpay for him.

 

2. Take all of those players' contracts in the context of what they did prior to being signed, not in hindsight. Panda was an overpay, the other 3 were not.

 

3. I'm sorry that you take offense to my assertion that some people are being biased, but I meant no offense. Everyone is biased. You can deny it as much as you want, but you are only fooling yourself. You are biased. As am I. It's human nature. Your bias against those 4 players comes through pretty strongly in your above post.

 

BTW, human bias also the reason why stats are needed.

 

And, I'm not sure how my homer taint works with my opinion that Panda and Price are overpays?

 

4. Personally, I think I'm a very respectful poster. I have strong opinions, which I can back up, and from which I won't usually back down. But don't mistake that for lack of respect towards others' opinions.

 

5. Lastly, as I suggested before, if my posts are boring you so much, feel free to ignore them, or better yet, employ the ignore feature.

[Kimmi]

And those who take the opposite view don't think they are being biased either so you shouldn't characterize their views as such.

 

This is why you look at the numbers. To overcome those biased opinions.

[a700hitter]

This is why you look at the numbers. To overcome those biased opinions.

 

But the numbers don't always tell the the whole story. And sometimes the numbers don't compare apples to apples. Numbers by themselves are objective, but their interpretation is often biased.

Edited December 10, 2015 by a700hitter

[cp176]

This is why you look at the numbers. To overcome those biased opinions.

 

Personally, I like reading other people's opinions. I might not agree with them but that doesn't mean I don't like their opinion. I post here because I enjoy reading different viewpoints whether I agree or not. I'm not going to use data to try to change the way someone feels about an issue. We all are capable of drawing our own conclusions based on the tools we decide to use. I think that the way the MLB contract system operates is ridiculous. There is no justification at all for paying any of them what they are getting paid. I have my preferences. You can call them biases if you like. I prefer the types of players who work for their money. Thus I do not think that Buchholz is worth what Price is worth. I think that Miley is worth more than Buchholz. When I think a contract hurts the team, I will let you know. Saying this does not mean that I dislike Buchholz. I hope that he pitches well for us. You use great statistical data to support your arguments. Good for you. I do things differently than you. I'm ok with that. If someone has the money and wants to pay a pitcher 13 mil. for a half season of work, that is ok with me as long as it does not hurt the team in general or stand in the way of another player's progress. if someone wants to pay a player 200 plus for 7 years, as long as it doesn't hurt the team once again, fine by me. At this point in time, I don't think the Buchholz contract hurts us. I think that the Price contract helps us. Not because of the ridiculous contract but because he will play for us. Hanley Ramirez and his contract could hurt us. Posting here is fun for me. When it becomes over the top argumentative and nasty, which it clearly can, I will stop posting.

[cp176]

Personally, I like reading other people's opinions. I might not agree with them but that doesn't mean I don't like their opinion. I post here because I enjoy reading different viewpoints whether I agree or not. I'm not going to use data to try to change the way someone feels about an issue. We all are capable of drawing our own conclusions based on the tools we decide to use. I think that the way the MLB contract system operates is ridiculous. There is no justification at all for paying any of them what they are getting paid. I have my preferences. You can call them biases if you like. I prefer the types of players who work for their money. Thus I do not think that Buchholz is worth what Price is worth. I think that Miley is worth more than Buchholz. When I think a contract hurts the team, I will let you know. Saying this does not mean that I dislike Buchholz. I hope that he pitches well for us. You use great statistical data to support your arguments. Good for you. I do things differently than you. I'm ok with that. If someone has the money and wants to pay a pitcher 13 mil. for a half season of work, that is ok with me as long as it does not hurt the team in general or stand in the way of another player's progress. if someone wants to pay a player 200 plus for 7 years, as long as it doesn't hurt the team once again, fine by me. At this point in time, I don't think the Buchholz contract hurts us. I think that the Price contract helps us. Not because of the ridiculous contract but because he will play for us. Hanley Ramirez and his contract could hurt us. Posting here is fun for me. When it becomes over the top argumentative and nasty, which it clearly can, I will stop posting.

 

 

Also, just so you know, even though I think that Miley earns what he is paid to a greater extent than Buchholz, I am glad that it was Miley that got traded as opposed to Buchholz. We can cover Miley's loss. If Buchholz should have one of his good years, we can't cover his loss quite as well. It is worth the risk.

[cp176]

Personally, I like reading other people's opinions. I might not agree with them but that doesn't mean I don't like their opinion. I post here because I enjoy reading different viewpoints whether I agree or not. I'm not going to use data to try to change the way someone feels about an issue. We all are capable of drawing our own conclusions based on the tools we decide to use. I think that the way the MLB contract system operates is ridiculous. There is no justification at all for paying any of them what they are getting paid. I have my preferences. You can call them biases if you like. I prefer the types of players who work for their money. Thus I do not think that Buchholz is worth what Price is worth. I think that Miley is worth more than Buchholz. When I think a contract hurts the team, I will let you know. Saying this does not mean that I dislike Buchholz. I hope that he pitches well for us. You use great statistical data to support your arguments. Good for you. I do things differently than you. I'm ok with that. If someone has the money and wants to pay a pitcher 13 mil. for a half season of work, that is ok with me as long as it does not hurt the team in general or stand in the way of another player's progress. if someone wants to pay a player 200 plus for 7 years, as long as it doesn't hurt the team once again, fine by me. At this point in time, I don't think the Buchholz contract hurts us. I think that the Price contract helps us. Not because of the ridiculous contract but because he will play for us. Hanley Ramirez and his contract could hurt us. Posting here is fun for me. When it becomes over the top argumentative and nasty, which it clearly can, I will stop posting.

 

Also wanted to add that I do think that you a very serious poster and that you are sensitive about what you write. I like that . You certainly are not nasty with your comments.

[Kimmi]

But the numbers don't always tell the the whole story. And sometimes the numbers don't compare apples to apples. Numbers by themselves are objective, but their interpretation is often biased.

 

I don't disagree with any of that.

[Kimmi]

Also wanted to add that I do think that you a very serious poster and that you are sensitive about what you write. I like that . You certainly are not nasty with your comments.

 

It's all good CP. You and I are never going to agree on the use of statistics, but I'm not going to stop defending their importance. One of the biggest reasons why stats are needed is to overcome human bias. Saying that people are biased in their opinions is not meant as an insult to anyone, it's just a fact.

 

As far as me being a very serious poster, I don't know exactly what you mean by that. It's a baseball forum. There's only so serious one can be about a baseball forum.

[cp176]

It was meant as a compliment.

[a700hitter]

Sometimes I just shake my head.

[cp176]

It's all good CP. You and I are never going to agree on the use of statistics, but I'm not going to stop defending their importance. One of the biggest reasons why stats are needed is to overcome human bias. Saying that people are biased in their opinions is not meant as an insult to anyone, it's just a fact.

 

As far as me being a very serious poster, I don't know exactly what you mean by that. It's a baseball forum. There's only so serious one can be about a baseball forum.

 

I've told you many times that I consider the use of metrics to be very important with respect to talent evaluation. I am pretty much in Dombrowski's camp though with how much importance to place on them. He has people in place who know how to use everything imaginable with respect to data collection.

[Kimmi]

It was meant as a compliment.

 

Well then, thank you.

[Kimmi]

I've told you many times that I consider the use of metrics to be very important with respect to talent evaluation. I am pretty much in Dombrowski's camp though with how much importance to place on them. He has people in place who know how to use everything imaginable with respect to data collection.

 

I know you are in Dombrowski's camp. That's why I said that you and I will never agree when it comes to the importance of stats.

[a700hitter]

I know you are in Dombrowski's camp. That's why I said that you and I will never agree when it comes to the importance of stats.

 

Are you fundamentally at odds with DD's use of stats?

[cp176]

Looks to me like this is a dead end argument. What do you think? You and I and most of the people that I know believe that the use of advanced metrics is a very important piece of the puzzle. Dombrowski believes it as well. Statistics are there to be used but they don't represent an end to the story by any means. For what it is worth, it looks like I don't believe in using them because I place a great deal of importance on what a player actually does on the field day to day. Stats represent a primary piece of the story if used correctly but they aren't the only piece.

[Elktonnick]

Looks to me like this is a dead end argument. What do you think? You and I and most of the people that I know believe that the use of advanced metrics is a very important piece of the puzzle. Dombrowski believes it as well. Statistics are there to be used but they don't represent an end to the story by any means. For what it is worth, it looks like I don't believe in using them because I place a great deal of importance on what a player actually does on the field day to day. Stats represent a primary piece of the story if used correctly but they aren't the only piece.

 

Excellent statement on the proper role and value of sabermetrics in today's game.

[Kimmi]

Are you fundamentally at odds with DD's use of stats?

 

I am fundamentally at odds with him being a traditionalist.

[Kimmi]

Looks to me like this is a dead end argument. What do you think? You and I and most of the people that I know believe that the use of advanced metrics is a very important piece of the puzzle. Dombrowski believes it as well. Statistics are there to be used but they don't represent an end to the story by any means. For what it is worth, it looks like I don't believe in using them because I place a great deal of importance on what a player actually does on the field day to day. Stats represent a primary piece of the story if used correctly but they aren't the only piece.

 

Everyone knows that stats don't tell the whole story and cannot be used solely. No one has ever suggested otherwise.

 

All front offices use advanced metrics and all front offices rely heavily on scouts. The difference lies in the extent to which advanced metrics are used. It is no secret that Dombrowski is very much a traditionalist in his views, and it is also no secret that during his reign, the Tigers organization lagged behind in the area of analytics. This concerns me about him. In fact, one of the first changes made in Detroit after Dombrowski was let go was the expansion/improvement of their analytics department.

 

I have no doubt that Dombrowski asks for input from Hazen and the other analytics guys. But I also have very little doubt as to why Dombrowski hired Frank Wren. I can very much understand why you are such a Dombrowski fan.

 

Dombrowski is a very good GM. I like the moves he has made so far. As I said before, so far, so good.

[a700hitter]

I am fundamentally at odds with him being a traditionalist.

 

Had DD declared himself to be a traditionalist? Is that some sort of club or official ideological philosophy? Has he denied statistics?

[a700hitter]

Cueto 6 years @ $130 million vs. Porcello 4 years @ $82.5 million. $21.6 million vs $21.1 million per year. More evidence of the lack of value in Porcello's extension. An extension should be at a discount. This contract was at full retail for a free agent plus a premium.

[Bellhorn04]

No one has ever suggested Porcello gave a discount in his salary. The idea was that 4 years was 2 years less than he could have gotten as a free agent.

 

Cueto's price got knocked down considerably by injury concerns.

[a700hitter]

No one has ever suggested Porcello gave a discount in his salary. The idea was that 4 years was 2 years less than he could have gotten as a free agent.

 

Cueto's price got knocked down considerably by injury concerns.

So, the discount is based on the number of years. That's a crappy discount.

[SoxFanForsyth]

So, I've done a lot of research on Porcello ever since Gammons came out with the comments that Brian Bannister has made alterations to his pitch mix. You can certainly see how his pitch mix changed from April - July vs Aug/Sept.

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outco...FS|SB&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=01/01/2016

 

Anyway, post DL stint, when he changed his pitch mix, he posted a 3.14/2.96/2.96 ERA/FIP/xFIP. Unfortunately, that only spanned about 57.1 IP, so I wanted to do a little more digging.

 

I grabbed Porcello's pitch mix from Brooks from his career game log and lined it up with his game log from Fangraphs, which allowed me to filter on his results by pitch mix. The results? Pretty encouraging.

 

Filtered on the following (all consistent with post DL usage):

4 SM FB: 12-23%

2 SM FB: 40-60%

Curveball: 5-14%

 

Cutter, Change, and Slider all didn't change by any kind of a significant margin.

EDIT: To clarify on his Change, once the 4sm, 2sm, and Curveball were all filtered, the remaining results of his change (which did see an increase in usage, but ranged from 7%-25% during those post DL starts) were all consistent with the usage in his post-DL starts (i.e., they were all within the 7-25% usage range), thus no filter needed, if that makes sense

 

Career Results:

 

IP 159.00

K/9 6.96

BB/9 2.04

ERA 3.85

xFIP 3.55

 

This, however, goes back to when he was called up too early, and natural progression with age, I thought, should make these results even better.

 

2012-2015:

 

IP 130.00

K/9 6.99

BB/9 2.22

ERA 3.53

xFIP 3.55

 

xFIP doesn't change much at all, but ERA begins to match xFIP.

 

2013-2015:

 

IP 105.00

K/9 7.29

BB/9 2.31

ERA 3.34

xFIP 3.54

 

Again, xFIP stays around the 3.55 range, ERA beginning to improve upon xFIP, likely due to an increase in downward action on his sinker resulting in a lower than average HR/FB.

 

The more encouraging results are below:

 

2014 - 2015

 

IP 71.33

K/9 8.20

BB/9 2.02

ERA 3.28

xFIP 3.26

 

K/9 has increased, xFIP drops down into a well above average rate, and ERA matches. Again, we're limiting the IP here, but if you're going with K rate and BB rate as the main drivers (which they are for xFIP), both stabilize over 170 Batters Faced or less, and that criteria has well been met here.

 

So what do I take away from my research? Well, to project Porcello to morph into a 3.25 ERA pitcher is a little aggressive. That said, he's got a substantial amount of data that indicates that, with Bannister's help in game planning around a specific pitch mix, he can certainly be the 2016 version of 2013 John Lackey and post an ERA/xFIP in the 3.4-3.55 range. And that, I believe, would be plenty good enough to stick behind Price as your number 2.

[a700hitter]

Iwakuma's deal with the Dodgers has fallen through due to his medicals.

[Elktonnick]

Iwakuma's deal with the Dodgers has fallen through due to his medicals.

 

The Dodger's sure are snakebit this offseason. They also are still stuck with Puig who is called the "worst person in baseball" by one ex teammate. Dave Roberts is going to have his work cut out for him.

[dupree]

Iwakuma's deal with the Dodgers has fallen through due to his medicals.

Reports are they are still in on Iwakuma just trying to rework the deal. And it seems they are talking with the Rays to swing a trade.

[Kimmi]

Reports are they are still in on Iwakuma just trying to rework the deal. And it seems they are talking with the Rays to swing a trade.

 

He can still be a very good pitcher, when healthy. An incentive laden deal makes sense. Or a $13 mil, one year deal. That would make a lot of sense too, depending on exactly what the reason for the failed physical was.

[Palodios]

Iwakuma still has a draft pick attached.

 

My guess is that this pulls him back to the Seattle.