Who Will Carryover to 2016 from the Worst Staff in 10 Years, i.e. 2015

[jacksonianmarch]

Bogaerts is following a similar path to Jeter. sk, in 97 and 98, Jeter had defensive values of 5 and 10 on fangraphs. Bogaerts is at 8.5. So the idea that Jeter never played D like Xander is false. Jeter actually had his best defensive value season in 2009 when his rating was 12.2 and his UZR/150 was 7.8. Bogaerts has a UZR/150 of 3.3 this yr. He is not a great defensive SS, but he is an above average one for this yr. Jeter made all the plays he could get to. His arm compensated well for his lack of range. His defensive metric issue is that after 99, he'd have 3 bad defensive seasons mixed around a good one. Once he started to really grow into his frame, he was mostly below average aside from 2009. Bogaerts is heavier than Jeter ever was even though he's 2 inches shorter. My bet is that over the next 2-3 seasons, his defense plays out as above average and then he starts to slip as he gets bigger and stronger. He's no Iglesias defensively, but his offensive production and lack of liability at SS makes him an amazing value. He's your SS and likely will be for awhile

[Dojji]

1. This year Bogaerts has been better by measurables than Jeter was in virtually any of his seasons defensively. Jeter's main contribution (which was considerable) was offensive, full stop. Now it is true that teams are smarter now about positioning fielders, but the Royals are the league's best team at that too.

 

2. Your logic here basically is blaming Bogaerts for A) not being Ozzie Smith out there and having a crappy 3B next to him, neither which is remotely fair to evaluating him. Now if we moved him to 3B and signed 1985 Ozzie Smith, the defense would be unbelievable - well duh. It would be a deeply suboptimal use of limited lineup spots, especially if the shortstop can't hit enough to justify it.

 

Basically, Bogaerts has been the best SS in the American League, by a considerable margin - but somehow you are blaming him for his third baseman (in 2015) being among the worst.

 

I am not blaming Bogaerts for anything. Moving him to third in favor of an Alcides Escobar type is about upgrading two defensive positions not about some childish effort to assign blame.

 

Our defense left infield is weak, and will not stop being weak with the current cast of characters. That's a fact not an opinion. In my opinion the best way to address it is to bring a defensive specialist in at shortstop. This is because bringing in a defensive expert at third base tends to be significantly less palatable since it's a corner infield position, and we need to upgrade the defense one way or another. Bogaerts has the bat to play a corner infield position if we can find someone with the defensive chops to excel defensively at shortstop which Bogaerts will not do,and we can probably find that kind of player on the market. This is one way to make the TEAM better, even if it does sacrifice a bit of Bogaerts' INDIVIDUAL value. Guess which one matters more to me.

 

As for worrying about how much a defense guy will hit -- I'm worried about how well our offense guys will defend. When the pitching staff is weaker than career levels across the board to the point that it's costing you games one of the things you investigate to solve the problem is the defense.

 

We brought in a rotation of contact pitchers with a mediocre defense behind them last year, wich is one of the reasons the GM behind these decisions got fired. If we want to get the most out of pitchers-to-contact we need to make sure our defense is among the best in the league. Not just decent, not just "tolerable as long as he hits." We need to be among the best defenses in the *league* if we want to start winning a significant number of games again.

 

The teams that are top in the division this year are traditionally the ones that take defense seriously. Top level fielding has become the new exploitable inefficiency because it's now the place where the metrics are the least clear. We are not going to get better as a team without upgrading the infield defense.

Edited September 7, 2015 by Dojji

[jacksonianmarch]

Dojji, Bogaerts at 3b drops his value considerably. He doesn't hit for power, at least he hasn't this season. His offense still carries with the average. But he is currently an above average SS. The metrics bear that out. You don't mess with that, especially when you have a guy who is hammering the ball at the position and playing better than most of his peers with the D.

 

And remember what happened the last time you moved him off the position? Do you really want to see him hit .230 again?

[Dojji]

I don't give a mouse turd about Bogaerts' individual value. His individual value is only a concern if it makes the team better. If we make the team worse to enhance an individual player's individual value then the question must be asked: What the hell are we doing and who needs to be fired?

 

What I care about is, what is better for the team. If we can bring in an elite defensive SS and move Bogaerts to third, that's better for the team right now, no question.

 

It's not like the man has never played third base. He's looked pretty good there, and there's no denying he has the bat to contribute positively there. Locking down the left side of the infield with "excellent and pretty good" instead of "OK and meh" will make the pitching staff better across the board, that's what I'm concerned about right now.

Edited September 7, 2015 by Dojji

[mvp 78]

Dojji, Bogaerts at 3b drops his value considerably. He doesn't hit for power, at least he hasn't this season. His offense still carries with the average. But he is currently an above average SS. The metrics bear that out. You don't mess with that, especially when you have a guy who is hammering the ball at the position and playing better than most of his peers with the D.

 

And remember what happened the last time you moved him off the position? Do you really want to see him hit .230 again?

And why try to fix something that isn't broken? There are so many other issues to tackle first without messing with a productive young player.

[Spudboy]

I say sign Tehan to play 3rd.

[Dojji]

Because it is bloody broken. Neither Panda nor Bogaerts are bad defenders but the combination of meh range and no range is an absolutely awful one, especially for our lefthanders and you can see in the stats without any help from me that our lefties are really getting the worst of it.

 

A lot of those "so many problems" get a lot better the moment our infield defense is tightened.

[Bellhorn04]

Because it is bloody broken. Neither Panda nor Bogaerts are bad defenders but the combination of meh range and no range is an absolutely awful one, especially for our lefthanders and you can see in the stats without any help from me that our lefties are really getting the worst of it.

 

Well, no, I can't see that in the stats at all. Our lefties have better numbers as a group.

[Kimmi]

Because it is bloody broken. Neither Panda nor Bogaerts are bad defenders but the combination of meh range and no range is an absolutely awful one, especially for our lefthanders and you can see in the stats without any help from me that our lefties are really getting the worst of it.

 

A lot of those "so many problems" get a lot better the moment our infield defense is tightened.

 

Dojii, your two main points are absolutely correct - the first one about the importance of defense in improving a pitching staff and the second one about making the moves that give the TEAM better value, not the individual players.

 

That being said, I'm not on board with the idea of moving Bogaerts back to 3B. Is he better suited for that position defensively than he is for SS? Probably, but the numbers, in a small sample, don't bear that out.

 

More to the point though, moving him to 3B seems to have some kind of negative impact on him. Last year he was a disaster. He sees himself as a SS. I am a strong believer in the idea that a player should suck it up and do what's best for the team, but if moving him to 3B is going to have Xander take 3 steps backwards, then that is not going to work out best for the team.

[a700hitter]

I say sign Tehan to play 3rd.

 

Lol! I remember that drum.

 

As to the discussion of Bogaerts moving to third base, it isn't going to happen. Our Infield defense is not a problem. Bogaerts is getting better everyday and Pedroia is still one of the best. If you want to improve third base, put Holt over there for half the games. The problem may be first base. A good first baseman can save a ton of errors. Will Hanley be our first baseman? What will that be like? Moving Bogaerts off shortstop will not be part of the off season plan, imo.

[a700hitter]

I think they might add seventy pitchers given the fan outcry ... but adding one plus some natural regression from Porcello and what you'd expect a 22 year old with 100 big league innings to do as a 23 year old ... investing in one might help the other stuff fall into place. I don't disagree that two would help more. But of course looking at the pitching strictly in terms of starting is also pretty simplistic. A starters ERA of 4.00 does not mean the pitching staff is necessarily bad (2007 would be a strong datapoint there).

 

Strong starting pitching is a better building block than a strong bullpen for consistent year to year success. The variance in bullpen performance is usually much harder to predict than the performance of your starters. Strong starters can also help bullpen performance by allowing managers to stay away from the 5th and 6th options except in blowout games and helps the good bullpen arms stay fresh. Either way, you can't win if your whole pitching staff comes in at a 4 + ERA. Toronto's ERA is better than league average --around 3.77 or so. The real enigma is the Royals. Before getting Cueto, their starting pitching was bad, but they had a phenomenal bullpen. They have managed to maintain an extremely high level of bullpen performance two years in a row. That is very unusual. All you need is one good one to leave or have a bad season and the way the bullpen is usedthe whole dynamic changes dramatically and can negatively impact the rest of the bullpen. KC could easily turn into a 4 th place team next season if their bullpen is disrupted. I would prefer to build the strong starting rotation, because I believe it is a proven method for consistent success as opposed to relying on a bullpen for pitching success. It is also easier to tinker and add to a bullpen in season than to rebuild a starting staff. Is that too simplistic? It is a fairly simple game. Lol! Those who think it is rocket science are mistaken.

Edited September 7, 2015 by a700hitter

[Dojji]

The Royals are carrying their pitching staff with top notch infield defense. They have three gold glove caliber defenders in that infield with all of Hosmer, Moustakas and Escobar among the best at what they do, and they just added Zobrist to that, plus the current best catcher in the American League into the bargain. That has a lot to do with why the mediocre lower middle of that rotation has held up.

 

Which seeing that in action and what it's meant for that franchise is why I'm anxious to see the Sox emulate it. It's also why I'm so hot about our lackluster infield defense. Which yeah, is not a problem, but is also not an asset, and it absolutely needs to be one.

 

The way I see it we need to stop settling for "not bad" at so many defensive positions. We don't have that one two punch in the 3-4 holes anymore that can carry us over defensive shortcomings. The way the standings bear out in this league makes it clear. When it comes to defense, "adeqate" isn't. 9 individually adequate defenders can still yield a wildly subpar defense and that's exactly what happened to us this year.

 

We're going to make some progress next year regardless if Vazquez is healthy and can split time with Swihart. Christian Vazquez has the talent to be one of the top defensive catchers in the league. But if a chance is there to seriously upgrade defensively at shortstop I really hope Bogaerts' fragile ego or the whinging of his agent don't stop us getting that done.

Edited September 7, 2015 by Dojji

[cp176]

Bogaerts is becoming one of the better fielding and better hitting shortstops in the game. His range as well as his throwing have improved vastly. He will be our ss for a long time. The chances of Vazquez and Swihart splitting time at the catcher position are at best slim and more than likely none. If Vazquez comes back healthy, one is going to be moved. Part of a package that is going to net us that second good pitcher that we need.

[mvp 78]

Dojji just doesn't like Xander because he wasn't a no name prospect.

[a700hitter]

Doji gives this stuff a lot of thought an analysis. He likes to discuss the off beat possibilities. I think there is enough disagreement about the obvious. Lol!

[cp176]

Doji gives this stuff a lot of thought an analysis. He likes to discuss the off beat possibilities. I think there is enough disagreement about the obvious. Lol!

 

 

Since I might be have been considered one of the old stat as opposed to the new stat guys, i have been trying to upgrade my image. I can't find anything new or old that tells me that XB isn't one of the top 5 ss in the game today.

[Dojji]

Offensively he is. Defensively he's OK -- not a liability, not an asset. The overall package is fantastic, especially because of how hard it is to find offense at all, much less at shortstop. However, "he's a great shortstop" doesn't address my concerns unless you're telling me he's a great defender.

 

What I'm worried about the is purely, defense because we have a number of contact pitchers on the roster, especially in the pen. We've seen this year what happens when contact pitchers are paired with a defense that isn't a major team focus and then relied on to do the carrying. Bringing in a defender to cover short plus one ace to head up the rotation is going to cost a whole lot less than bringing the 2 aces we need to turn this rotation around without paying attention to the fielding.

Edited September 7, 2015 by Dojji

[sk7326]

Strong starting pitching is a better building block than a strong bullpen for consistent year to year success. The variance in bullpen performance is usually much harder to predict than the performance of your starters. Strong starters can also help bullpen performance by allowing managers to stay away from the 5th and 6th options except in blowout games and helps the good bullpen arms stay fresh. Either way, you can't win if your whole pitching staff comes in at a 4 + ERA. Toronto's ERA is better than league average --around 3.77 or so. The real enigma is the Royals. Before getting Cueto, their starting pitching was bad, but they had a phenomenal bullpen. They have managed to maintain an extremely high level of bullpen performance two years in a row. That is very unusual. All you need is one good one to leave or have a bad season and the way the bullpen is usedthe whole dynamic changes dramatically and can negatively impact the rest of the bullpen. KC could easily turn into a 4 th place team next season if their bullpen is disrupted. I would prefer to build the strong starting rotation, because I believe it is a proven method for consistent success as opposed to relying on a bullpen for pitching success. It is also easier to tinker and add to a bullpen in season than to rebuild a starting staff. Is that too simplistic? It is a fairly simple game. Lol! Those who think it is rocket science are mistaken.

 

The Royals starters are not good - but they have an excellent bullpen and their defense provides a lot of help. Interestingly, the same is true of the Giants largely. (Bumgarner the obvious exception) Both also are built for giant run-sucking ballparks. So the Red Sox formula should be more offense-centric, just plays to the natural assets. The bullpen is also interesting in that it points to - I noted this elsewhere - a measure of risk taking in acquisition that the Red Sox could benefit from.

 

I do think on the pitching side, the Red Sox have a bit of the same quandry Beane and Ricciardi (in TOR) ran into - if you keep taking college guys because of lower risk, you are punting on the kids who are far more likely to become stars (and far more likely to go boom - if you are not drafting high, you have to live with that).

[cp176]

Offensively he is. Defensively he's OK -- not a liability, not an asset. The overall package is fantastic, especially because of how hard it is to find offense at all, much less at shortstop. However, "he's a great shortstop" doesn't address my concerns unless you're telling me he's a great defender.

 

What I'm worried about the is purely, defense because we have a number of contact pitchers on the roster, especially in the pen. We've seen this year what happens when contact pitchers are paired with a defense that isn't a major team focus and then relied on to do the carrying. Bringing in a defender to cover short plus one ace to head up the rotation is going to cost a whole lot less than bringing the 2 aces we need to turn this rotation around without paying attention to the fielding.

 

 

hey - how about me saying this. The stats say he is a well above average ss. Not even close.

[mvp 78]

Just go be a Royals fan... If they win a WS, you'll find another team to follow anyway.

[Dojji]

Gfy

[Jasonbay44]

Porcello will be back by default and Rodriguez will likely be back. The only other guy on this list I'd like back is Buchholz, who I think will have his option picked up. Hopefully the other two spots are filled with an ace (David Price) and a solid #2 as Buchholz cannot be trusted with his injury history as a top two pitcher in a rotation.