2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[cp176]

Yes they have been.

 

Owens + Bogaerts for Harvey + Flores + lottery ticket

 

The Sox start Holt but Flores is a decent backup. The Mets get stud SS and a nice SP prospect.

 

I'm sure this deal will never happen, but it's exactly the kind of deal that would be a win-win for both teams, and would make a TON of sense.

 

I would hope that Dumbrowski would look to free agency before considering a trade involving a player as valuable as Bogaerts is at present. Really an all-star shortstop with utility players only to back him up. Once again, they hopefully look to their depth when deciding who they will consider trading and to whom they are trading with. Ultimately they will have to make some moves with respect to their outfield and the catching positions. If they decide that they already have the outfield of the future in place , it certainly makes Margot expendable. He won't be a career minor leaguer. Benintendi may well be on the same path. The following 4 will not all be catching for Boston next year - Swihart, Hannigan, Vasquez, and Leon.

[SeanJohn93]

Hey guys, I know it's been awhile. I hope everyone is doing okay. I'm sorry I haven't posted in awhile. I recently received a job as a reporter for the Red Sox so I am really excited and focused on that. Here is an article I wrote about Rich Hill if anyone wants to check it out http://bostonredsox.about.com/od/2015-Red-Sox/fl/Rich-Hill-An-Inspiration-on-and-off-the-field.htm

[SoxnCycles]

Hey guys, I know it's been awhile. I hope everyone is doing okay. I'm sorry I haven't posted in awhile. I recently received a job as a reporter for the Red Sox so I am really excited and focused on that. Here is an article I wrote about Rich Hill if anyone wants to check it out http://bostonredsox.about.com/od/2015-Red-Sox/fl/Rich-Hill-An-Inspiration-on-and-off-the-field.htm

 

Good read John. Thanks.

[Kimmi]

Thanks for the article. This Fangraphs seems to be a pretty good tool as it very often and once again confirms what I already knew to be true. What it doesn't tell us and what I still wonder about is whether it was a conscious change of approach when he started the season or was it just working for him and he just went with it.

 

This Fangraphs is an awesome tool that people should use often. The best part about it is that it's even an awesome tool when it disagrees with you.

 

My impression from the article was that Bogaerts made a conscious effort to change his approach and that is was not something he just happened to stumble across. As good as he's looked at the plate, though, we do need to beware of his very unsustainable BABIP.

[Kimmi]

Without a ss in the pipeline that even looks like he could come close to getting the job done as well as Bogaerts, makes the idea of trading him look foolish. A little early to think that Guera might be the next one and there is no one else. He won't be going anywhere for anyone. The Red Sox have cloned their outfielders. Benintendi and Margot are basically Betts and Bradley. They also have at least 2 more big league catchers than they need. I think a trade will come from that pool and not from the one that has just one fish in it.

 

I had read on another site last season, from a poster who had some inside scoop on the Sox, that the FO was extremely high on Bogaerts, despite his rather disappointing 2014. They saw Bogaerts as the long term SS for years to come. This poster was adamant in his opinion that Bogaerts was untouchable.

 

Of course, Dombrowski might have a completely different view when it comes to Bogaerts, but I can't imagine that to be the case. I would be very surprised if Bogaerts is traded. I think the Sox have enough other pieces that they could get some good young pitching without trading him. As you alluded to, one of those pieces might be Swihart.

[Kimmi]

Based on reports that I have seen, the Red Sox are shying away from getting Hanley any time at 1st base this season. If that is the case, DD needs to move this guy in the offseason and eat a large chunk of his contract. They can't take the chance that he will be able to play 1st base next season, and he can't go back to LF.

 

According to Dombrowski's latest interview, he still sees Hanley as the probable first baseman for next season. Based on what he's seen in drills, he thinks Hanley has the skills to play first base, and that those skills can be honed in 6 weeks of spring training.

[Kimmi]

Hey guys, I know it's been awhile. I hope everyone is doing okay. I'm sorry I haven't posted in awhile. I recently received a job as a reporter for the Red Sox so I am really excited and focused on that. Here is an article I wrote about Rich Hill if anyone wants to check it out http://bostonredsox.about.com/od/2015-Red-Sox/fl/Rich-Hill-An-Inspiration-on-and-off-the-field.htm

 

Nice job SeanJohn.

[a700hitter]

This Fangraphs is an awesome tool that people should use often. The best part about it is that it's even an awesome tool when it disagrees with you.

 

My impression from the article was that Bogaerts made a conscious effort to change his approach and that is was not something he just happened to stumble across. As good as he's looked at the plate, though, we do need to beware of his very unsustainable BABIP.

 

I think fangraphs and lots of other sources are very helpful tools for GMs and fans too. I just don't need them to tell me about my own team that I watch every day with few exceptions. They are very helpful for players on other teams.

[sk7326]

Thanks for the article. This Fangraphs seems to be a pretty good tool as it very often and once again confirms what I already knew to be true. What it doesn't tell us and what I still wonder about is whether it was a conscious change of approach when he started the season or was it just working for him and he just went with it.

 

I think it has been a way to get to pitches which gave him a lot of trouble last year ... I think it might be the latter more than anything. But he has command of his PAs, which is good to see. But yeah, his next step is to lay off those pitches he has figured out how to spray ... and make them groove something he can smash.

[SoxHop]

Xander............

 

Looking at his plate discipline numbers on his BP player page, it’s pretty clear why this is happening. Bogaerts is simply swinging at more pitches. After being almost too patient last season, it appears that he is overcompensating this year. His overall swing rate has risen about 4.5 percentage points. A big part of that is swinging at more pitches in the zone, which is a good thing. Unfortunately, he’s also chasing a lot more pitches out of the zone. This kind of approach hurts his power numbers as well as his walk numbers. Instead of whiffing on these bad pitches he’s swinging at, he’s making contact on 69 (nice) percent of them, leading to weaker overall contact.

 

Here's the article.... http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/09/17/this-isnt-xander-bogaerts-breakout-season/

[sk7326]

Xander............

 

Looking at his plate discipline numbers on his BP player page, it’s pretty clear why this is happening. Bogaerts is simply swinging at more pitches. After being almost too patient last season, it appears that he is overcompensating this year. His overall swing rate has risen about 4.5 percentage points. A big part of that is swinging at more pitches in the zone, which is a good thing. Unfortunately, he’s also chasing a lot more pitches out of the zone. This kind of approach hurts his power numbers as well as his walk numbers. Instead of whiffing on these bad pitches he’s swinging at, he’s making contact on 69 (nice) percent of them, leading to weaker overall contact.

 

Here's the article.... http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/09/17/this-isnt-xander-bogaerts-breakout-season/

 

Basically - this is a good news, bad news thing ...

 

Good? He has figured out how to cover all of his "cold zones"

Bad? He is not forcing them to throw into his hot areas

Good? He's 22 and made a major hitting adjustment to be a net asset offensively, while working on his fielding to the point that he's quite solid.

 

Next step for him is to lay off the out of zone pitches and get more things to drive. But he has made adjustments at every level of baseball to date - including this one. He's still just a baby. This is the sort of guy you bet on.

[SoxHop]

Basically - this is a good news, bad news thing ...

 

Good? He has figured out how to cover all of his "cold zones"

Bad? He is not forcing them to throw into his hot areas

Good? He's 22 and made a major hitting adjustment to be a net asset offensively, while working on his fielding to the point that he's quite solid.

 

Next step for him is to lay off the out of zone pitches and get more things to drive. But he has made adjustments at every level of baseball to date - including this one. He's still just a baby. This is the sort of guy you bet on.

 

I agree. He's super young. He'll bulk up a bit, and every year get more dialed in at the plate.

 

He's a dangerous hitter now....... he'll be even more so in the coming years.........

[Dojji]

Very happy with the overall package of Bogaerts. My concern about his range is mostly just a quibble, although it is a little unfortunate that his worst attribute (still decent) is the one that's probably the most important for a shortstop but turning away a great player just because he's not perfect isn't smart. Bogaerts at shortstop fixes something that's been a perennial problem for the Red Sox ever since we lost Nomar.

 

I'd still love to upgrade defensively at third base if possible, I think we need to tighten that defense as much as we can. We'll see what the market will bear.

[cp176]

I had read on another site last season, from a poster who had some inside scoop on the Sox, that the FO was extremely high on Bogaerts, despite his rather disappointing 2014. They saw Bogaerts as the long term SS for years to come. This poster was adamant in his opinion that Bogaerts was untouchable.

 

Of course, Dombrowski might have a completely different view when it comes to Bogaerts, but I can't imagine that to be the case. I would be very surprised if Bogaerts is traded. I think the Sox have enough other pieces that they could get some good young pitching without trading him. As you alluded to, one of those pieces might be Swihart.

 

Saw a good report today about Vasquez. He is expected to be ready to go by the beginning of the spring. It is possible that Swihart may be converted to another position just because of his bat. I would doubt seriously that they will both catch for the Sox next year. I would hate to see either one of them traded but it really does look like a possibility.

[Dojji]

Is it possible that Swihart is athletic enough for third base? Bearing in mind that the Panda is a converted catcher. And Swihart does seem to be something other than the stereotypical fat slow catcher.

[Spudboy]

I read that Swihart played 3rd when he was younger and was converted to catcher.

 

In any case, he has the tools to play there as well as 1st.

[sk7326]

Is it possible that Swihart is athletic enough for third base? Bearing in mind that the Panda is a converted catcher. And Swihart does seem to be something other than the stereotypical fat slow catcher.

 

Swihart is a great athlete - which is uncommon for a catcher. Really there is a possibility that long term he might do something like Buster Posey where he plays some 1B or 3B just to not have his bat out of the lineup for 40 or 50 games. But is also makes his toolset very rare for catchers, and thus the decision for the Red Sox legitimately interesting. This decision is doubly fascinating since a lot of posters are assuming Christian Vasquez can actually hit - which is a largely untested assertion. We know Swihart can cut it defensively - maybe not as good as Vasquez, but that is because Vasquez is very gifted on that side.

[Kimmi]

Saw a good report today about Vasquez. He is expected to be ready to go by the beginning of the spring. It is possible that Swihart may be converted to another position just because of his bat. I would doubt seriously that they will both catch for the Sox next year. I would hate to see either one of them traded but it really does look like a possibility.

 

I agree that it is very unlikely that both will be catching for the Sox next season. I would like to see Swihart converted to either 1B or 3B, rather than trading him, but I understand the need to give up someone of value to get something of value in return.

 

I read a couple of days ago that Swihart, by far, has the most wild pitches assigned to his pitchers when he is behind the plate. Again, I have nothing against Swihart, but this is yet another reason why I prefer Vazquez catching, despite his lesser offense.

[cp176]

I agree that it is very unlikely that both will be catching for the Sox next season. I would like to see Swihart converted to either 1B or 3B, rather than trading him, but I understand the need to give up someone of value to get something of value in return.

 

I read a couple of days ago that Swihart, by far, has the most wild pitches assigned to his pitchers when he is behind the plate. Again, I have nothing against Swihart, but this is yet another reason why I prefer Vazquez catching, despite his lesser offense.

 

I am not really sure which of the two I prefer yet but I would say that no one knows for sure how well Vasquez is going to hit.

He might just be able to get the job done.

[Spudboy]

Vasquez was showing signs of being able to hit by mid 2014. He has doubles power when he makes contact.

 

The real question is will his arm be healthy enough to throw for 80-120 games.

 

If Vasquez can hit around .240 and stay healthy he is the starting catcher. Hannigan should be #2.

 

I don't buy into the idea that the Sox would have more value in Swihart at catcher. The kid is a gifted athlete and looks to become a very good offensive threat. He needs to be on the field every day.

 

Trading him for pitching is stupid unless he yields one of the very best arms.

[Orange Juiced]

Rich Hill is giving the Sox something to think about for next year. Two excellent starts in a row. Low 90s fastball, dynamic curve. He's old (36), so that means he'd probably be a cheap guy to sign. I'd definitely consider signing him for one or two years, and having him as depth for the rotation or the bullpen.

[Spudboy]

Rich Hill is giving the Sox something to think about for next year. Two excellent starts in a row. Low 90s fastball, dynamic curve. He's old (36), so that means he'd probably be a cheap guy to sign. I'd definitely consider signing him for one or two years, and having him as depth for the rotation or the bullpen.

 

I don't know about what is possible contract wise. However, if he can be had on a minor league deal it would be good.

 

The Sox have wasted so much money on reclamation projects with much less positive and solid performance information.

 

Small risk here.

[cp176]

Vasquez was showing signs of being able to hit by mid 2014. He has doubles power when he makes contact.

 

The real question is will his arm be healthy enough to throw for 80-120 games.

 

If Vasquez can hit around .240 and stay healthy he is the starting catcher. Hannigan should be #2.

 

I don't buy into the idea that the Sox would have more value in Swihart at catcher. The kid is a gifted athlete and looks to become a very good offensive threat. He needs to be on the field every day.

 

Trading him for pitching is stupid unless he yields one of the very best arms.

 

 

It is very possible that he might develop into a very good catcher. I would hate to see him go but where is he going to play. I would be ok with him just about anywhere but we aren't hearing anything. If he goes, my guess is he is a part of a package that brings us a better than good top of the rotation tyoe guy.

[Dojji]

Where is he going to play? Do you really think Travis Shaw is going to be our everyday 1B? Are you really happy with the Panda's performance at third? He'll find places to play, don't you doubt it.

 

I'd rate Swihart as an above average catcher defensively but nothing special. If Vazquez can put up something around .250/.330/.360, with the special kind of defense he's capable of he's got to be our starting catcher. Swihart's going to learn to hit well enough to play the corrners and he's played 1B 3B RF LF in college. He'll find somewhere to play I have no doubt at all.

[sk7326]

Where is he going to play? Do you really think Travis Shaw is going to be our everyday 1B? Are you really happy with the Panda's performance at third? He'll find places to play, don't you doubt it.

 

I'd rate Swihart as an above average catcher defensively but nothing special. If Vazquez can put up something around .250/.330/.360, with the special kind of defense he's capable of he's got to be our starting catcher. Swihart's going to learn to hit well enough to play the corrners and he's played 1B 3B RF LF in college. He'll find somewhere to play I have no doubt at all.

 

That is a fair assessment - but also noting that (and this goes for Vasquez too) 23 year olds do not stay the same. What will be interesting for Vasquez will be the future of home plate umpiring. Will balls and strikes be automated in the next decade? It will impact guys like Vasquez particularly. But his pitch framing is remarkable, and as long as flawed humans are forced to do that job, he is a legitimate source of advantage.

 

Basically you are looking at one guy with some sort of Molina brother upside - obviously the offense will steer you to which one you think, and another with some legitimate "middle class man's" Buster Posey. The latter has a significant age advantage. I think the odds are he gets moved because of his market value. The value has been enhanced by this year, when he was overpromoted because of injury - had to figure out the big leagues on the fly, and has turned out to be pretty darn good with flashes of a hell of a lot more.

[cp176]

Where is he going to play? Do you really think Travis Shaw is going to be our everyday 1B? Are you really happy with the Panda's performance at third? He'll find places to play, don't you doubt it.

 

I'd rate Swihart as an above average catcher defensively but nothing special. If Vazquez can put up something around .250/.330/.360, with the special kind of defense he's capable of he's got to be our starting catcher. Swihart's going to learn to hit well enough to play the corrners and he's played 1B 3B RF LF in college. He'll find somewhere to play I have no doubt at all.

 

Travis Shaw or someone else ( Hanley Ramirez maybe ) could very possibly be our first baseman going forward. Sandoval will more that likely be at third and yes I am ok with that. If Swihart is moved and I mean if, I would hope that he would be part of a package to bring us a top of the rotation young starting pitcher. I understand that I am being redundant here since I have said this many many times. I do not want to see him moved necessarily but if Vasquez comes back healthy, which it looks as though he might, I do not think that they will both be on this roster. If the Red Sox decide to acquire a pitcher via the trade, he looks like an obvious candidate to be moved. He has tremendous all around potential. He has already been targeted by other teams. If a young high quality power arm came and he went, I think that we would survive not having his bat in the lineup. Trust me though, if the return would equal the same for Vasquez, he would be the one gone in a heartbeat. That just isn't the way it is going to go though.

[Dojji]

You know it's entirely possible that the solution is going to be, to trade Ryan Hanigan. Go with CV and Swihart with a backup plan of Sandy Leon down in Pawtucket. That's a good catching corps. If we were on the cusp of a championship I would not agree but we aren't, and these are 2 good young catchers who are both at a stage where they need major league time, and a veteran guy like Hanigan is a luxury we can't afford in this context -- if we were going for the top next year we'd absolutely need Hanigan, but we need to develop as much young talent as possible next year and that means 2 young catchers is the better solution. Swihart and CV should be able to split catching duties. I would approve of Swihart also being given time at other positions just to get his bat in the lineup. If that is done, there should be enough playing time for 2 young catchers to develop.

 

I think it's possible that longterm Swihart is the starter and Vazquez is one of those valuable backups that you can put in there without sacrificing quality in the catcher's position. It would break down that way if Vazquez struggles at the plate and Swihart doesn't which is easily possible. In the meantime before we find out one way or the other neither should have the precedent of being "starter." Let that be a prize to fight for and see where we stand at the deadline whether one of those guys isn't more valuable to another team than he is to us. I don't think either of these young catchers should be traded in the offseason though -- Hanigan is more expendable than either of them.

Edited September 23, 2015 by Dojji

[Orange Juiced]

I'm very curious about the 1b of the future for the Red Sox. The options:

 

Hanley Ramirez. Excellent power, 1b seems like the most likely fit for him moving forward. Depending on how long Ortiz plays, Hanley could see a shift to DH full time in the near future. I still think he's a good trade candidate (if the Sox eat $$). But if he stays, 1b is probably his spot.

 

Travis Shaw. Really showing us something. Decent (not great) fielder. Very nice bat that plays very, very well in Fenway. .370/.418/.680/1.098 at home. Looks like he could be a 20-25 homer guy with very solid OBP and a decent glove. For the league minimum salary, that's outstanding production.

 

Sam Travis. Just 22, he doesn't show as much power as Travis Shaw, but he has a terrific bat. .381 obp this year. Probably a better fielder than Shaw. Not as versatile (Shaw can also play 3b). Probably won't be ready for the majors for another full year or two. But a very nice prospect.

 

So the Sox seem to be in pretty good shape for 1b, not with anyone who will be a superstar, but with some different, but solid options for the short and long term.

[reYoukilis]

You know it's entirely possible that the solution is going to be, to trade Ryan Hanigan. Go with CV and Swihart with a backup plan of Sandy Leon down in Pawtucket. That's a good catching corps. If we were on the cusp of a championship I would not agree but we aren't, and these are 2 good young catchers who are both at a stage where they need major league time, and a veteran guy like Hanigan is a luxury we can't afford in this context -- if we were going for the top next year we'd absolutely need Hanigan, but we need to develop as much young talent as possible next year and that means 2 young catchers is the better solution. Swihart and CV should be able to split catching duties. I would approve of Swihart also being given time at other positions just to get his bat in the lineup. If that is done, there should be enough playing time for 2 young catchers to develop.

 

I think it's possible that longterm Swihart is the starter and Vazquez is one of those valuable backups that you can put in there without sacrificing quality in the catcher's position. It would break down that way if Vazquez struggles at the plate and Swihart doesn't which is easily possible. In the meantime before we find out one way or the other neither should have the precedent of being "starter." Let that be a prize to fight for and see where we stand at the deadline whether one of those guys isn't more valuable to another team than he is to us. I don't think either of these young catchers should be traded in the offseason though -- Hanigan is more expendable than either of them.

But aren't two good catchers too many when we need pitching so much? I'm a big proponent of making sure we have a solid, defensive minded, with good pitch calling skills, catcher at all times but then again one of our young catchers could get us alot in a trade. We need to give up something to get something (captain obvious to the rescue!!!) and the catching situation is the only position that we have two potentially good players where we can afford to give up one. Plus I like Hanigan as a safety net. We should be developing another young one in the minors too.

[Kimmi]

You know it's entirely possible that the solution is going to be, to trade Ryan Hanigan. Go with CV and Swihart with a backup plan of Sandy Leon down in Pawtucket. That's a good catching corps. If we were on the cusp of a championship I would not agree but we aren't, and these are 2 good young catchers who are both at a stage where they need major league time, and a veteran guy like Hanigan is a luxury we can't afford in this context -- if we were going for the top next year we'd absolutely need Hanigan, but we need to develop as much young talent as possible next year and that means 2 young catchers is the better solution. Swihart and CV should be able to split catching duties. I would approve of Swihart also being given time at other positions just to get his bat in the lineup. If that is done, there should be enough playing time for 2 young catchers to develop.

 

I think it's possible that longterm Swihart is the starter and Vazquez is one of those valuable backups that you can put in there without sacrificing quality in the catcher's position. It would break down that way if Vazquez struggles at the plate and Swihart doesn't which is easily possible. In the meantime before we find out one way or the other neither should have the precedent of being "starter." Let that be a prize to fight for and see where we stand at the deadline whether one of those guys isn't more valuable to another team than he is to us. I don't think either of these young catchers should be traded in the offseason though -- Hanigan is more expendable than either of them.

 

I would not trade Hanigan. Then again, I think this team will be contenders next season if Dombrowski makes a couple of key moves, so the idea of having 2 young catchers who are still learning and developing does not sit well with me. The team will need a veteran catcher to mentor either Vazquez or Swihart through the learning curve. Besides that, I'm a big Hanigan fan.