User Name?'s pre-season projections.

[User Name]

I told Bellhorn i was going to bite on predictions for the current Red Sox rotation, and i here i am. But instead of focusing solely on the starting rotation, i will have a crack at projecting the entire team as currently constructed. The methodology i used consisted of looking at career statistics and and currently available projection systems. To make it a bit more interesting, i decided to embrace my "positive" persona and project using mostly best-case scenarios (return from injury, previous FIP marks, etc) while attempting to remain as objective as possible.

 

Side-note: None of these numbers were pulled out of thin air, i simply put a bit more weight into career numbers and advanced (read, park-neutral) effects in order to predict the best possible, yet still likely outcome for the 2015 Boston Red Sox, in both the offensive and pitching aspects of the game.

 

I am also willing to make a sig bet that the cumulative rotation ERA is, at the very least, league average if not slightly better for 2015. Just to show that i somewhat trust (you can never truly trust projection, or anything for that matter in baseball) the system i used to arrive at my conclusions:

 

Rick Porcello: 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 150+ K, 202 IP.

Wade Miley: 3.77 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 175+ K, 201 IP.

Justin Masterson: 3.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 185+ K, 190 IP

Clay Buchholz: 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 120 K, 150 IP.

Joe Kelly: 4.10 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 100 K, 130 IP.

Henry Owens: 3.54 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 80 K, 90 IP

Mid-season acquisition: 3.20 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 80 IP, 82 K

 

 

Offense:

 

CF Mookie Betts: 287/360/430, 13 HR, 32 2B, 30 steals, 90 R, 62 RBI.

2B Dustin Pedroia: .290/360/430,12 HR, 35 2B, 20 steals, 80 R,70 RBI

DH David Ortiz: 280/370/500, 33 HR, 40 2B, 1 steal (lol), 80 R, 110 RBI

LF Hanley Ramirez: 300/380/470, 25 HR, 35 2B, 15 steals, 80 R, 105 RBI

3B Pablo Sandoval: .290/340/430, 15 HR, 30 2B, 0 steals, 65 R, 80 RBI

1B- Mike Napoli: .255/355/440, 23 HR, 35 2B, 0 steals, 70 R, 82 RBI

RF- Shane Victorino: 270/330/405, 7 HR, 20 2B, 10 steals, 40 R, 44 RBI

SS- Xander Bogaerts: 275/340/430 15 HR, 30 2B, 5 steals, 50 R, 60 RBI

C- Christian Vasquez: 245/310/380, 5 HR, 15 2B, 0 steals, 35 R, 30 RBI

 

Bench:

Ryan Hanigan: 240/330/360, 2 HR, 10 2B, 0 steals, 18 R, 25 RBI

Brock Holt: .270/320/370, 4 HR, 13 2B, 8 SB. 25 R, 20 RBI

Daniel Nava: .270/350/400, 5 HR, 25 2B, 0 SB,

Allen Craig:.270/330/410, 12 HR, 25 2B, 50 R, 65 RBI

 

 

Bullpen:

CL-Koji Uehara: 2.20 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 80K, 65 IP, 35 SV

SU1-Junichi Tazawa: 2.95 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 70 K, 72 IP, 25 Holds

SU2-Edward Mujica: 3.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 47 K, 62 IP, 18 Holds

MRP-Tommy Layne: 3.15 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 30 K, 42 IP

MRP-Robbie Ross Jr: 4.05 ERA, 1. 35 WHIP, 28 K, 38 IP

MRP-Alexi Ogando: 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 42 K, 45 IP

LRP- Brandon Workman: 4.12 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 38, 115 IP

 

 

Notes:

 

1) I believe Castillo will start the season in AAA and will be brought up later in the year when Victorino inevitably gets hurt, thus no projection (even though he's almost impossible to project right now either way due to SSS) for what i assume will be limited time.

 

2) Nava/Craig are a platoon at RF after Victorino inevitably gets hurt, with Craig also getting some time at 1B/DH to spell Napoli/Papi against lefties.

 

3) The BP assignments are for how i envision them coming out of SP, not necessarily how it will shake out in-season particularly given Mujica's notorious streakiness.

 

4) I don't buy that Miley's "just an innings eater" xFIP (which accounts for HR issues) very much likes his work, and Fenway's a lot less of a HR park than it used to be, especially with decreased offensive numbers.

 

5) Regarding SP, my only real leap-of-faith here in current talent is Masterson, but he has always underperformed his FIP and i expect that a better defensive unit (banking on an improvement from XB here) will help the entire squad play up to its FIP instead of down. I am also expecting Henry Owens to make his debut in mid-season and be a little better than league average. I am also expecting a significant in-season acquisition to put up pretty good numbers during the stretch run.

[mvp 78]

Lies. Joe Kelley already stated he's getting the CY.

 

Pedroia won't hit a double digit HR total. Papi won't get to 30 HR's.

[User Name]

I'm taking all sig bets. If both don't happen, you win. If both happen, i win. One and one, it's a tie, and we choose each other's sigs for a month.

[mvp 78]

I hope you like losing.

[User Name]

I'm a f***ing juggernaut. I don't lose. I'm also fairly confident that Ortiz hits 30+. A lot more than Pedroia hitting 10, honestly.

[Spudboy]

I'm a f***ing juggernaut. I don't lose. I'm also fairly confident that Ortiz hits 30+. A lot more than Pedroia hitting 10, honestly.

 

Why do you believe Ortiz will see such a sizable bump in BA?

 

Is it the increased "protection"?

 

I think if he's healthy he hits 30 HR like braking sticks.

 

Looks like Betts will be ROTY.

[User Name]

.256 BABIP, which is incredibly low. Part of that is the shift, but with better table-setters this year, teams will be less inclined to shift on him, which is what happened in 2013. Having Hanley behind him won't hurt either.

[jd98]

Post more stuff like this and less of the immature insults.

 

I'd be comfortable betting a large sum of money (for me, I'm poor) that the SP ERA will be worse than league average.

[User Name]

When you wanna avoid controversy the best thing you do is not try to rile up the other party. Food for thought.

[User Name]

Also, note that my prediction hinges heavily on 170 IP of better-than-league average ERA from Henry Owens and a mid-season acquisition. Not trying to shy away from my projections, but rather explaining my expectations.

[mvp 78]

Owens will be the opening day starte and break Hershiser's scorless streak. Good shot to win ROY/CY/MVP.

[jd98]

Also, note that my prediction hinges heavily on 170 IP of better-than-league average ERA from Henry Owens and a mid-season acquisition. Not trying to shy away from my projections, but rather explaining my expectations.

 

That would help, but you still seem way too optimistic overall. You've got the worst ERA of any SP as 4.10. It's a very long shot that nobody will be a bust. The only way I see them being better than average is if Buchholz pitches like he did in 2013 and does it for the whole season. The 2014 Sox SP were below average in ERA, even before the trade deadline. The avg AL SP ERA in 2014 was 3.92. The Sox were 4.36, and 4.09 before August.

 

I like the rest of your projections, except for Pedroia 20 SB. He seems done as a base stealer. Why are you expecting a big comeback there?

 

You're predicting Castillo in AAA until Vic gets hurt, but you also say Nava/Craig platoon when Vic gets hurt. So are you saying Castillo is a bench player when called up, basically not being a regular starter until 2016?

[jacksonianmarch]

UN? are you using your predictions as sig bets or are you gonna back out due to the neighborhood rule?

 

I propose 3 sig bets, each for a 2 week span and all spawned by your predictions. I will do it as an under over, sound good?

 

Wade Miley's ERA- under/over set a 4. I take the over. I assume you are taking the under

Justin Masterson's ERA- under/over set at 4. I take the over. I also assume you are taking the under

Masterson+Buchholz+Kelly IP- under over set at 470IP. I take the under, you are at the over

 

Sound fair? Sig bets cancel each other out, ie if I win 2 and you win 1, I own your sig for 2 weeks and we're even. But if I or you win all 3, then the winner owns the sig for 6 weeks, Fair?

[Kimmi]

UN, good job with your opening post. I'm not saying that I agree with it all. I haven't had the chance to really delve into the numbers yet. But I appreciate your time and effort in making your projections and I appreciate you putting your numbers out there. Well done.

[User Name]

That would help, but you still seem way too optimistic overall. You've got the worst ERA of any SP as 4.10. It's a very long shot that nobody will be a bust. The only way I see them being better than average is if Buchholz pitches like he did in 2013 and does it for the whole season. The 2014 Sox SP were below average in ERA, even before the trade deadline. The avg AL SP ERA in 2014 was 3.92. The Sox were 4.36, and 4.09 before August.

 

I like the rest of your projections, except for Pedroia 20 SB. He seems done as a base stealer. Why are you expecting a big comeback there?

 

You're predicting Castillo in AAA until Vic gets hurt, but you also say Nava/Craig platoon when Vic gets hurt. So are you saying Castillo is a bench player when called up, basically not being a regular starter until 2016?

 

1) I explained my reasoning in the initial post, and specifically stated i would take the optimistic side of the predictions whenever possible, but also, on the logical side, i expect that a combination of better D (again, an XB improvement needed) excellent catching and emphasis on dominance of the lower third of the strike zone will help the rotation's overall numbers.

 

2) Health.

 

3) Yes, i am not big on Castillo's ability to hit just yet.

[User Name]

UN? are you using your predictions as sig bets or are you gonna back out due to the neighborhood rule?

 

I propose 3 sig bets, each for a 2 week span and all spawned by your predictions. I will do it as an under over, sound good?

 

Wade Miley's ERA- under/over set a 4. I take the over. I assume you are taking the under

Justin Masterson's ERA- under/over set at 4. I take the over. I also assume you are taking the under

Masterson+Buchholz+Kelly IP- under over set at 470IP. I take the under, you are at the over

 

Sound fair? Sig bets cancel each other out, ie if I win 2 and you win 1, I own your sig for 2 weeks and we're even. But if I or you win all 3, then the winner owns the sig for 6 weeks, Fair?

 

I'd take one and two, but i'm not dumb enough to take three. Give me another option.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ortiz' OPS of .860. I take under, you take over?

[User Name]

Ortiz' OPS of .860. I take under, you take over?

 

Big Papi's in the best shape of his life. He's old, but he's not fat anymore. I'll bet on favor from the BABIP Gods and bite.

[seabeachfred]

1) I explained my reasoning in the initial post, and specifically stated i would take the optimistic side of the predictions whenever possible, but also, on the logical side, i expect that a combination of better D (again, an XB improvement needed) excellent catching and emphasis on dominance of the lower third of the strike zone will help the rotation's overall numbers.

 

2) Health.

 

3) Yes, i am not big on Castillo's ability to hit just yet.

 

About an hour after I got home a few hours back I did a cursory check of what you predicted and though far from scientific, I came up with the things listed and came to the conclusion that you are thinking between 86-92 wins this season. True, I only checked and cross checked for about 30 minutes but that's what I came up with. Am I anywhere in the ballpark? If so, that number could spell an AL East Title this year. Is that where you are?

[User Name]

Yes. As i posted in another thread, the Sox have bashed their way to the POs before, and they can do it again. Look at the Angels last year after Richards went down. They had relievers starting games .every five days at one point, but that offense couldn't be contained.

[Spudboy]

Big Papi's in the best shape of his life. He's old, but he's not fat anymore. I'll bet on favor from the BABIP Gods and bite.

 

Yeah Ortiz is in great shape based on the recent photos I have seen of him.

 

I don't like his choice of cars, though. High priced junk.

[User Name]

He has an Aventador too. The Range Rover is for the purposes of installing a massive sound system, because this place is f***ing retarded.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes. As i posted in another thread, the Sox have bashed their way to the POs before, and they can do it again. Look at the Angels last year after Richards went down. They had relievers starting games .every five days at one point, but that offense couldn't be contained.

 

They got a good year out of Weaver, some durability from Wilson and a surprise in Shoemaker. Santiago wasn't bad either. You forget, they lost Richards and Skaggs in a two month span. And their offense was able to bash, but I also don't think you have the Angels 2014 offense.

[User Name]

They got a good year out of Weaver, some durability from Wilson and a surprise in Shoemaker. Santiago wasn't bad either. You forget, they lost Richards and Skaggs in a two month span. And their offense was able to bash, but I also don't think you have the Angels 2014 offense.

 

They scored 773 runs. The 2013 Red Sox scored more. Barring good health, i'm pretty sure we do.

[sk7326]

Funny thing is - if you take the side by side fWAR of last year's opening day rotation and the Steamer projection (just picking that one since I found it) for this year's - they aren't actually that far apart. You look at the Sox choices after they let Lester go, the pattern is clear:

 

1. Guys with a track record of major league performance - not amazing performance, but solid

2. Guys young enough to still improve (Porcello particularly)

3. Guys who have shown a record of durability (Masterson last year aside). What they lack in sterling record they partially compensate for with being able to consistently take the ball. (basically the latter describes John Lackey to a large degree)

 

We know that with the improved baseball economy, and with the 2nd wild card spot changing how teams perceive their short term outlook - it is going to take a month or two for the trade market to REALLY sort itself out. We know the Sox have a ton in their arsenal to trade when the time comes. The question is can this rotation hold the fort while that process takes place. I think (partially because of that 2nd wild card spot) it would be very difficult for them not to.

 

Think about it - as bad as last year was, we couldn't TRULY jump ship until the All-Star break. That 2nd wild card position continually gave a faint glimmer of hope.

[Kimmi]

Big Papi's in the best shape of his life. He's old, but he's not fat anymore. I'll bet on favor from the BABIP Gods and bite.

 

 

The low BABIP last season combined with something you mentioned in a previous post about having better table setters could bode very well for Papi. We know that the shift tends not to be as drastic and less effective when there are runners on base. Papi's career BABIP with runners on base is .327 and opposed to .281 when bases are empty. The league average split tends to range from 0 to .005, so Papi's is well outside that range.

 

In 2014, his split was .302 with runners on versus .215 with bases empty. If the guys in front of him can get on base at a good clip, look out.

 

Interestingly enough, his career HR rate is lower with runners on base.

[Kimmi]

Rick Porcello: 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 150+ K, 202 IP.

Wade Miley: 3.77 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 175+ K, 201 IP.

Justin Masterson: 3.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 185+ K, 190 IP

Clay Buchholz: 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 120 K, 150 IP.

Joe Kelly: 4.10 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 100 K, 130 IP.

Henry Owens: 3.54 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 80 K, 90 IP

Mid-season acquisition: 3.20 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 80 IP, 82 K

 

 

5) Regarding SP, my only real leap-of-faith here in current talent is Masterson, but he has always underperformed his FIP and i expect that a better defensive unit (banking on an improvement from XB here) will help the entire squad play up to its FIP instead of down. I am also expecting Henry Owens to make his debut in mid-season and be a little better than league average. I am also expecting a significant in-season acquisition to put up pretty good numbers during the stretch run.

 

 

Your projections for the SPs are optimistic, as you've acknowledged, but not unrealistic. Taken individually, any of those guys could certainly reach those numbers. As a collective unit, it's unlikely IMO that they all perform to those projections.

 

That said, I think some might underestimate the effect Vazquez could have on our pitchers. It's possible that he could shave about .3 runs off of the staff ERA from the number of extra strike calls that he gets. And that doesn't include the "indirect" effects the pitchers will receive by being able to expand the strike zone.

 

A note about Masterson, which you alluded to with his FIP. He had the largest underperformance of SIERA last season, a difference of 2.03 from his ERA. That large of a difference cannot be sustained. If he's healthy, and with a good defense behind him, he should be much better this season.

 

Again, I don't expect the rotation to equal the Nats rotation. But they should be solid enough to give the team a chance to win most games.

[seabeachfred]

Your projections for the SPs are optimistic, as you've acknowledged, but not unrealistic. Taken individually, any of those guys could certainly reach those numbers. As a collective unit, it's unlikely IMO that they all perform to those projections.

 

That said, I think some might underestimate the effect Vazquez could have on our pitchers. It's possible that he could shave about .3 runs off of the staff ERA from the number of extra strike calls that he gets. And that doesn't include the "indirect" effects the pitchers will receive by being able to expand the strike zone.

 

A note about Masterson, which you alluded to with his FIP. He had the largest underperformance of SIERA last season, a difference of 2.03 from his ERA. That large of a difference cannot be sustained. If he's healthy, and with a good defense behind him, he should be much better this season.

 

Again, I don't expect the rotation to equal the Nats rotation. But they should be solid enough to give the team a chance to win most games.

 

Here's what we can pray for Kimmi and the Man upstairs won't think we trying for an unfair advantage. How about we keep our fingers crossed and hope for good health for our starting rotation and see what they can do. They could all prosper, they could all flop, there could be a 3-2 split with a rookie like Owens coming up and rousing the league. What we don't need are injuries besetting the pitching staff. I think all things being equal we could put together a successful season.

[mvp 78]

Here's what we can pray for Kimmi and the Man upstairs won't think we trying for an unfair advantage. How about we keep our fingers crossed and hope for good health for our starting rotation and see what they can do. They could all prosper, they could all flop, there could be a 3-2 split with a rookie like Owens coming up and rousing the league. What we don't need are injuries besetting the pitching staff. I think all things being equal we could put together a successful season.

I was told this was the worst starting staff in MLB. If that's the case, pitching injuries won't matter.

[Kimmi]

Here's what we can pray for Kimmi and the Man upstairs won't think we trying for an unfair advantage. How about we keep our fingers crossed and hope for good health for our starting rotation and see what they can do. They could all prosper, they could all flop, there could be a 3-2 split with a rookie like Owens coming up and rousing the league. What we don't need are injuries besetting the pitching staff. I think all things being equal we could put together a successful season.

 

 

Well Fred, that's really all we can do. Hope that they're healthy and see what they can do. This might be as optimistic a thought as I'll see from you, so I'll take it!