Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[iortiz]

Kershaw is guaranteed 215 million. Porcello is guaranteed 83 million, about 40% of that. The difference is massive. Kershaw has nothing to do with this.

 

 

 

The difference speaks volumes about the kind of pitchers they are, and I do not have problem with that commitment since he is probably the best pitcher around arguably for the next 10 Y . Also, what is the NPV of that contract?

 

On the other hand, when I see Porcello's contract mostly when you look at the Y basis, makes me puke.

Edited April 9, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Kershaw is guaranteed 215 million. Porcello is guaranteed 83 million, about 40% of that. The difference is massive. Kershaw has nothing to do with this.

 

I don't think you are getting the point Bell. Why would you throw in a Y what a No. 1 makes in a Y basis to a guy who wasn't/isn't/won't be a No 1. For the next 4 Y?

Edited April 9, 2015 by iortiz

[Spudboy]

My head is about to explode.

[Palodios]

Yup, but I meant in a AVV basis. 20 M pay check/ Y belongs in the Group you mentioned.

 

You're a numbers guys, so maybe this will make more sense:

 

Player A: 4 years, 80 million dollar. All 4 years: Average 3 WAR per year.

Player B: 6 years, 80 million dollar. First 4 years: Average 3 WAR per year. Last 2 years: 0 WAR per year.

 

Ignoring inflation, which contract is better? One is 20 million AAV, the other is 13.3 million AAV. They both provide the same value in wins.

 

If Porcello was a 30 year old free agent, no chance he would get a contract like this. They believe he will consistently provide 2-3 WAR every year, and will do so much more consistently than any 30+ free agent -- That's why they paid him a premium for middle-of-the-rotation value.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think you are getting the point Bell. Why would you throw in a Y what a No. 1 makes in a Y basis to a guy who wasn't/isn't/won't be a No 1. For the next 4 Y?

 

Kershaw makes 30 million a year average. Porcello makes 20 million a year average. 30 million is 150% of 20 million. Kershaw is elite. Porcello is not. 30 million is elite now. 20 million is not.

 

You have to adapt your mind to the ever-changing economics of baseball.

[User Name]

Kershaw makes 30 million a year average. Porcello makes 20 million a year average. 30 million is 150% of 20 million. Kershaw is elite. Porcello is not. 30 million is elite now. 20 million is not.

 

You have to adapt your mind to the ever-changing economics of baseball.

 

Fantastic way to describe the issue at hand. We're not reinventing the wheel here.

[OriginalUsername]

Let's take a look at some of the tier money out there:

 

Kershaw -- 215 million, through age 33.

Felix -- 175 through age 33.

Cain -- 125 million through age 33

Scherzer -- 210 million, through age 37.

Sabathia -- 122 million through age 37

Lester -- 150 million through age 37

Verlander -- 175 through age 36

 

 

Kershaw and Felix might as well be bargains. But the key difference between the Porcello deal and the rest of them is that those teams pay more money for the early years to get the decline years. If you tried to get any of those aces to sign a 4 year deal during prime years, you're probably looking at 40 million per year.

 

The last year of the Porcello contract could be just as good as the first year. All of the others deals are going to see big declines towards the end.

 

Verlander and Hernandez both signed 5 year contracts during their prime years.

[Palodios]

Verlander and Hernandez both signed 5 year contracts during their prime years.

 

Kershaw, Felix, and Verlander's early contracts aren't great examples because they resigned with teams that drafted them. You can't just buy those guys. Theo basically told Seattle to pick any 5 prospects for Felix, but it wasn't enough.

[User Name]

Verlander and Hernandez both signed 5 year contracts during their prime years.

 

Hernandez has been the exception that reinforces the notion of the inherent risk of pitcher contracts so far, while Verlander (still in prime, fantastic past history) is another example of said risk. Another big reason why the Sox gave Porcello such a high AAV is that since Ben Cherington took over as GM, they have operated under the MO to sign shorter deals, for higher annual money. Porcello is not the first one, he won't be the last one, and the whining is unwarranted.

[a700hitter]

Kershaw makes 30 million a year average. Porcello makes 20 million a year average. 30 million is 150% of 20 million. Kershaw is elite. Porcello is not. 30 million is elite now. 20 million is not.

 

You have to adapt your mind to the ever-changing economics of baseball.

How many number 2 or 3 pitchers make over $20 million per year?

[a700hitter]

You people are comparing apples and oranges. Get a good comparator group. Look at other number 2 and number 3 pitchers and see what they make. That will indicate whether or not the Red Sox overpaid for Porcello.

[Bellhorn04]

You people are comparing apples and oranges. Get a good comparator group. Look at other number 2 and number 3 pitchers and see what they make. That will indicate whether or not the Red Sox overpaid for Porcello.

 

Right off the top, Anibal Sanchez. Look at his career numbers before he got the 80 million from Detroit before the 2013 season.

 

Homer Bailey got a 6 year, 105 million extension from Cincy before 2014.

 

What started all the big money for #2 pitchers was when the Yankees gave Burnett 5 years ands 82.5 million. That was before 2009, so 6 years ago.

 

The inflation has been insane. This is obvious. Who in their right minds two years ago thought Jon Lester would be making almost 26 million a year? And he has usually been considered a #2.

[a700hitter]

Right off the top, Anibal Sanchez. Look at his career numbers before he got the 80 million from Detroit before the 2013 season.

 

Homer Bailey got a 6 year, 105 million extension from Cincy before 2014.

 

What started all the big money for #2 pitchers was when the Yankees gave Burnett 5 years ands 82.5 million. That was before 2009, so 6 years ago.

 

The inflation has been insane. This is obvious. Who in their right minds two years ago thought Jon Lester would be making almost 26 million a year? And he has usually been considered a #2.

So you can't name a single number 2 or number 3 starting pitcher that makes more than $20 million a year. There is your answer whether he is overpaid or not.

 

There is no equating Porcello with Lester who was our # 1 for at least 4 seasons before he left and who strikes out over 200 guys per year. They are not comparable.

[Kimmi]

So you can't name a single number 2 or number 3 starting pitcher that makes more than $20 million a year. There is your answer whether he is overpaid or not.

 

There is no equating Porcello with Lester who was our # 1 for at least 4 seasons before he left and who strikes out over 200 guys per year. They are not comparable.

 

Bellhorn is not here to give himself homework, nor to convince anyone of his opinions. However, the lawyer within him has looked at all of the evidence, and he is convinced that he is right.

[User Name]

Sox overpaid in AAV to cut the contract short. It's not rocket science.

[Kimmi]

Sox overpaid in AAV to cut the contract short. It's not rocket science.

 

 

Exactly. And the verdict is still out on whether the Sox did in fact overpay or not.

[a700hitter]

Bellhorn is not here to give himself homework, nor to convince anyone of his opinions. However, the lawyer within him has looked at all of the evidence, and he is convinced that he is right.

Bell is not a lawyer and that is obvious. No slam at you Bells. Most people would consider that a compliment.

[a700hitter]

Exactly. And the verdict is still out on whether the Sox did in fact overpay or not.

Overpay can be established at the beginning of the contract if the market wouldn't bear such a price for the player. The AAV is way out of whack with other #2's or 3's even taking into consideration the shorter term.

[a700hitter]

Bellhorn is not here to give himself homework, nor to convince anyone of his opinions. However, the lawyer within him has looked at all of the evidence, and he is convinced that he is right.

Also, this is not at all what I said. I am not convinced that my opinion is right about the issue of elite base stealing speed. I can be convinced by evidence, just not by studies based on faulty data. I guess you are not happy with anything less than capitulation on an issue. You enjoy the game in a different way than I do. Different strokes. Leave it at that. If you want to "prove" a theory using statistics, the evidence has to be compelling. The article you cited, didn't even arise to the level of raising my curiosity.

[User Name]

Overpay can be established at the beginning of the contract if the market wouldn't bear such a price for the player. The AAV is way out of whack with other #2's or 3's even taking into consideration the shorter term.

 

No it isn't. Stop rationalizing.

[iortiz]

No it isn't. Stop rationalizing.

 

I thought you had him on ignore... You just couldn't resist the temptation to read his post, could you?

[iortiz]

Kershaw makes 30 million a year average. Porcello makes 20 million a year average. 30 million is 150% of 20 million. Kershaw is elite. Porcello is not. 30 million is elite now. 20 million is not.

 

You have to adapt your mind to the ever-changing economics of baseball.

Once again, you are not getting the point Bell. The reason I put Kershaw in that mix was because I rather pay a high AVV in a mid/long term to young players who have great stuff. Porcello is not even close in that mix I mentioned.

Edited April 10, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Wonder how many teams would be willing to pay that contract (80/4) next offseason, if Porcello ends up posting an ERA of 4.3 and 2.7 WAR.

[Kimmi]

Bell is not a lawyer and that is obvious. No slam at you Bells. Most people would consider that a compliment.

 

 

I know that he is not a lawyer. But all of us have a little bit of "lawyer" in us. Bell is one of the most logical and common sense posters on this board, and he has the ability, better than most, to convince me of an opposing argument.

[cp176]

Whether Porcello becomes what appears to be an over paid starter remains to be seen. Whatever the market dictates for starting pitching of any type will determine that. Signing a solid middle of the rotation starter with potential upside was a good thing. Since I don't think the money is a big issue for this team, for them I think that it was a good sign. Personally, my opinion is I would not pay that kind of money for a pitcher who relies on the play of his defense to the extent that Porcello does. I am one of those old fashioned traditionalists people like to talk about. I still prefer the good old fashioned power arm. My big dollars would be going to the big dogs.

[Kimmi]

Overpay can be established at the beginning of the contract if the market wouldn't bear such a price for the player. The AAV is way out of whack with other #2's or 3's even taking into consideration the shorter term.

 

 

No, it's not. And you have no idea whether the market would bear the price for Porcello.

[Kimmi]

Also, this is not at all what I said. I am not convinced that my opinion is right about the issue of elite base stealing speed. I can be convinced by evidence, just not by studies based on faulty data. I guess you are not happy with anything less than capitulation on an issue. You enjoy the game in a different way than I do. Different strokes. Leave it at that. If you want to "prove" a theory using statistics, the evidence has to be compelling. The article you cited, didn't even arise to the level of raising my curiosity.

 

 

You can continue to call the data invalid, faulty, not a "study" etc. because it doesn't support your opinion, but that doesn't make it any less valid. It's funny how you were ready to accept the data on Billy Hamilton, because it supported your opinion, even though that was based on 49 PAs.

 

I didn't show you data from one article, but from 3 different "studies". The guys that do this research do this for a living. They know what they're doing. They acknowledge that the research isn't perfect, but that doesn't mean that their results are incorrect.

 

I can be convinced by evidence also. I've been wrong before, so I wouldn't be surprised to be proven wrong on this. Show me some evidence, otherwise all you have is an unsupported opinion. Saying that you've watched baseball for 50 years is not evidence.

[Bellhorn04]

Once again, you are not getting the point Bell. The reason I put Kershaw in that mix was because I rather pay a high AVV in a mid/long term to young players who have great stuff. Porcello is not even close in that mix I mentioned.

 

Your point can be summarized in two words: Porcello sucks.

[Bellhorn04]

Wonder how many teams would be willing to pay that contract (80/4) next offseason, if Porcello ends up posting an ERA of 4.3 and 2.7 WAR.

 

Question back at you: what do you think will be the market value in annual salary next year, 2016, for a pitcher of Porcello's age who is projected to put up a 2.7 WAR for the next 4 years? Put your numbers out there and we can really get somewhere on this.

[a700hitter]

I thought you had him on ignore... You just couldn't resist the temptation to read his post, could you?

 

I am a must read.