Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[User Name]

Is Fred inside other people's heads? The fact that some of us don't continually whine about the Sox not getting a #1 pitcher does not mean we are content with the current starting rotation. The problem is that whining over and over about the same thing doesn't do anyone any good. Why not spend that time analyzing the current team and going over possible trade scenarios for the team? This is a Red Sox/baseball message board, not an outlet for personal complaints and childish shows of entitlement. They have Yankees-related message boards for that.

[iortiz]

You should follow your own advise.

[User Name]

As a side note, i made my displeasure with the Sandoval signing widely known. The difference here is that they just might still get a pitcher during ST or during the season. Personally, if Cliff Lee shows he's healthy, i think they should be all over that.

[iortiz]

Wonder What would "they should be all over that" mean...

[cp176]

Ok - thiis is a legitimate question that should probably be in a new thread but I think that all parameters of thread boundaries have pretty much disappeared so here goes. It is not meant to antagonize those who think that metrics supersede other aspects of evaluation. I do in fact recognize the role statistics play in the game although I am not as deeply devoted to them as some. I just would truly like to know what others think about something I just read. I am not a big acronym guy as a matter of fact my "GAFF" for most of them is pretty low. I have learned what WAR is and what it represents to some. I just read an article that told me that Mookie Betts has the highest WAR of anyone on our team going in to the spring (3.6). A dead heat for second - Pedroia and Castillo (3.5) I believe. Believe me, I am a big Mookie Betts fan but find it hard to believe that one so young whom many don't even see starting initially for us could be rated higher than everyone else. I truly do not understand how Castillo could possibly be rated this high. Am I the only one who thinks that maybe the sample size here with him is a bit limited in scope. I am really not trying to start an argument, just trying to see if the WAR ratings really are as important as made out to appear. Probably no one will be changing my opinion about this one but I am curious to know what others think. There has to be something that I am missing here.

[mvp 78]

If Fred could stop talking about the Sawxheads Civil War between the polyannas and the realists, it'd be great.

[Spudboy]

Ok - thiis is a legitimate question that should probably be in a new thread but I think that all parameters of thread boundaries have pretty much disappeared so here goes. It is not meant to antagonize those who think that metrics supersede other aspects of evaluation. I do in fact recognize the role statistics play in the game although I am not as deeply devoted to them as some. I just would truly like to know what others think about something I just read. I am not a big acronym guy as a matter of fact my "GAFF" for most of them is pretty low. I have learned what WAR is and what it represents to some. I just read an article that told me that Mookie Betts has the highest WAR of anyone on our team going in to the spring (3.6). A dead heat for second - Pedroia and Castillo (3.5) I believe. Believe me, I am a big Mookie Betts fan but find it hard to believe that one so young whom many don't even see starting initially for us could be rated higher than everyone else. I truly do not understand how Castillo could possibly be rated this high. Am I the only one who thinks that maybe the sample size here with him is a bit limited in scope. I am really not trying to start an argument, just trying to see if the WAR ratings really are as important as made out to appear. Probably no one will be changing my opinion about this one but I am curious to know what others think. There has to be something that I am missing here.

 

I saw that article and I too question the WAR projections for the 2015 position players.

 

No, it does not make sense to see Castillo rated so hi because he has played about 10 games above A Ball. I guess that metrics used to evaluate him at low levels carry a lot of weight.

 

The WAR for Pedroia was way too low as well. How do you project a healthy Pedroia who has had , I believe, 5 and 6 WAR seasons recently, so low?

 

Don't get hung up on not totally understanding WAR. And God help you if you delve into what UZR and UZR150 actually mean.

 

Of course I have now opened the door to the metric heads to beat me to death for my defiance!!!

[Spudboy]

Wonder What would "they should be all over that" mean...

 

Don't bother trolling.

 

I'll answer.

 

It means that if Lee is proven to be once again healthy that the Sox should make a priority out of signing him.

[Spudboy]

If Fred could stop talking about the Sawxheads Civil War between the polyannas and the realists, it'd be great.

 

Yeah talking about other boards used to be frowned upon on Talksox much like political discussions.

 

It never comes to any good and usually ends up reflecting poorly on Talksox.

 

That, I have no wish to see.

[mvp 78]

Pedroia will stink up the joint this year. Albatross contract.

[User Name]

A very important component of WAR is playing time, which is the main reason Betts would get the nod over Pedroia, in conjunction with Pedroia's power drop-off. I am not a big fan of Castillo and think that trying to import his SSS from last year or his Cuban numbers is a fool's errand.

 

In the end, they are merely projections. They use reasonably recent stats to predict future performance, which hurts Pedroia as well, but don't justify Castillo's sky-high rates.

[User Name]

Don't bother trolling.

 

I'll answer.

 

It means that if Lee is proven to be once again healthy that the Sox should make a priority out of signing him.

 

I like Lee better than Hamels.

[Spudboy]

A very important component of WAR is playing time, which is the main reason Betts would get the nod over Pedroia, in conjunction with Pedroia's power drop-off. I am not a big fan of Castillo and think that trying to import his SSS from last year or his Cuban numbers is a fool's errand.

 

In the end, they are merely projections. They use reasonably recent stats to predict future performance, which hurts Pedroia as well, but don't justify Castillo's sky-high rates.

 

Everything you say makes sense to me. Although I guess I am a little more optimistic about Pedroia's power more or less returning since he claims both hands are finally healthy.

 

I hope so.

[iortiz]

Don't bother trolling.

 

I'll answer.

 

It means that if Lee is proven to be once again healthy that the Sox should make a priority out of signing him.

I meant and wonder what the FO would be willing to give for him... Or what the P would be asking in return if so

[Spitball]

Thanks for the pre-warning Fred, but I already know you well enough to know what to expect from you should things go south.

 

Sometimes I think some of you predict doom and gloom so that you can have the best of both worlds, in a sense. If the team stinks, you can at least go on and on about how right you were. If the team is really good, well then that makes everyone happy and you don't care that you were wrong.

 

It's kind of the same reason that I stock up on Yankees players on my fantasy team. If they play well, then good for my fantasy team. If they stink, well then everyone's happy.

 

I think it's a lot easier to expect the worst and be pleasantly surprised rather than expect the best and be disappointed.

 

Well said, Kimmi. Pessimists expect the worst so they won't be disappointed if the worst happens. It is a self defense mechanism with most pessimists.

 

I am not telling you anything you don't already know, but we all mostly reject what contradicts with what we hold sacred, baseball or otherwise. It is part of life and being on a baseball forum. I am thankful for Fred, A700, and others because they provide debatable topics for us to discuss and argue.

 

Fortunately, some of us can embrace new theology when it emerges. The Red Sox are entering the current season with a vastly improved offense. Their starting pitching lacks a number one, but the AL east is not loaded with starting pitching. Tampa Bay might have the best staff, but their line-up is suspect. Baltimore won last year with Tillman as their ace. Boston has potentially as deep a staff as any team in the division. I am cautiously optimistic.

[iortiz]

Well said, Kimmi. Pessimists expect the worst so they won't be disappointed if the worst happens. It is a self defense mechanism with most pessimists.

 

I am not telling you anything you don't already know, but we all mostly reject what contradicts with what we hold sacred, baseball or otherwise. It is part of life and being on a baseball forum. I am thankful for Fred, A700, and others because they provide debatable topics for us to discuss and argue.

 

Fortunately, some of us can embrace new theology when it emerges. The Red Sox are entering the current season with a vastly improved offense. Their starting pitching lacks a number one, but the AL east is not loaded with starting pitching. Tampa Bay might have the best staff, but their line-up is suspect. Baltimore won last year with Tillman as their ace. Boston has potentially as deep a staff as any team in the division. I am cautiously optimistic.

I do not think Fred or A700 are pessimist. I think they are objective. I think everybody agree that we have one of the best O in baseball, but when it is about pitching, the opinions take several ways.

[Palodios]

Optimism/Pessimism is often described using the image of a glass with water poured to the halfway point. Optimists think about the water that is in the glass, pessimists think about the water that isn't in the glass.

 

Replace "Glass" with "team", and "water" with "talented players", and it is pretty clear who the optimists and pessimists are.

[cp176]

A very important component of WAR is playing time, which is the main reason Betts would get the nod over Pedroia, in conjunction with Pedroia's power drop-off. I am not a big fan of Castillo and think that trying to import his SSS from last year or his Cuban numbers is a fool's errand.

 

In the end, they are merely projections. They use reasonably recent stats to predict future performance, which hurts Pedroia as well, but don't justify Castillo's sky-high rates.

 

Your response works for me but I keep asking myself if there is some possible reason why someone would want to project Castillo to that number. I am by no means into conspiracy thinking but that one seems strange to me although I do want him to be that good. They paid a lot of money for him and he will play. I also understand that it is just a way to try to help project future performance but when used like this, I think that it hurts the credibility of the stat itself. I have been working hard to understand the terminology and its importance and then I see this one. If Victorino comes out healthy, I see Castillo as being number 4 in the outfield.

[a700hitter]

Optimism/Pessimism is often described using the image of a glass with water poured to the halfway point. Optimists think about the water that is in the glass, pessimists think about the water that isn't in the glass.

 

Replace "Glass" with "team", and "water" with "talented players", and it is pretty clear who the optimists and pessimists are.

There are those who think the glass is half empty and those who think it is half full, and both are right. So, why do people get so mad?

[User Name]

Your response works for me but I keep asking myself if there is some possible reason why someone would want to project Castillo to that number. I am by no means into conspiracy thinking but that one seems strange to me although I do want him to be that good. They paid a lot of money for him and he will play. I also understand that it is just a way to try to help project future performance but when used like this, I think that it hurts the credibility of the stat itself. I have been working hard to understand the terminology and its importance and then I see this one. If Victorino comes out healthy, I see Castillo as being number 4 in the outfield.

 

It doesn't hurt the credibility of the stat itself, and i will explain why. WAR is a statistic that is based on past performance. When importing data from another league, there is a significant margin for error which the creator/applicator of the stat freely acknowledges. In this case, it is merely an attempt to project what a player might do, so they can set a benchmark approaching how teams as a whole could do, besides rating possible individual performances. This is not the regular use of the stat, and should not be considered so, but it's the best thing we've got when trying to even ballpark what Castillo might do.

[User Name]

I do not think Fred or A700 are pessimist. I think they are objective. I think everybody agree that we have one of the best O in baseball, but when it is about pitching, the opinions take several ways.

 

Do you even know what that means? No one in this board is objective.

[iortiz]

They frequently base their opinions not influenced by personal feelings, interpretations, or prejudice; based on facts; unbiased: an objective opinion. On the other hand you do not. Your love for Cherington do not let you see clearly.

[iortiz]

There are those who think the glass is half empty and those who think it is half full, and both are right. So, why do people get so mad?

 

Because they are not civic? Haha

[Palodios]

There are those who think the glass is half empty and those who think it is half full, and both are right. So, why do people get so mad?

 

Probably because there are two sides to the glass, and both type of person wants the other type of person to see their view. The more stubborn those people are, the worse it gets:p

[Dojji]

There are those who think the glass is half empty and those who think it is half full, and both are right. So, why do people get so mad?

 

Because it's their glass and they just want a drink from the damn thing

[a700hitter]

Probably because there are two sides to the glass, and both type of person wants the other type of person to see their view. The more stubborn those people are, the worse it gets:p

It's okay when it is water in the glass. The problems start when kool aid is poured into the glass.

[iortiz]

It's okay when it is water in the glass. The problems start when kool aid is poured into the glass.

 

Hahaha that kool aid should be banned from this board.

[seabeachfred]

Well pitchers and catchers show up in about ten days......and then we'll really have something to talk about......like I wonder what Cliff Lee would cost us NOW if we were to take a flyer on him and talk the Phils into trading him to us.

[cp176]

It doesn't hurt the credibility of the stat itself, and i will explain why. WAR is a statistic that is based on past performance. When importing data from another league, there is a significant margin for error which the creator/applicator of the stat freely acknowledges. In this case, it is merely an attempt to project what a player might do, so they can set a benchmark approaching how teams as a whole could do, besides rating possible individual performances. This is not the regular use of the stat, and should not be considered so, but it's the best thing we've got when trying to even ballpark what Castillo might do.

 

Good to know - thanks. That one concerned me.

[mvp 78]

They frequently base their opinions not influenced by personal feelings, interpretations, or prejudice; based on facts; unbiased: an objective opinion. On the other hand you do not. Your love for Cherington do not let you see clearly.

 

When you say Porcello won't have an ERA below 4, but other posters point out his career trajectory which states otherwise, you are not being objective and are letting your personal feelings cloud your judgement. When you base a lot of your reasoning on the eyeball test, you are not being objective. When you refuse to even consider another person's beliefs, you are not being objective.