2014 Offseason Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Lee needed surgery last year. Rehabbing the injury once is fine. The fact that he shut it down twice last year is enough to say, f*** it, fix it. Now, it is the third time in less than a year he is shutting it down. Fix it, take the gigantic buyout from the Phils and sign an incentive laden deal next offseason

[a700hitter]

I have never said that players don't feel pressure at the highest level. Of course they feel pressure. They wouldn't be human if they didn't feel the pressure. I laughed when Koji said he was so nervous he thought he was going to throw up, because I can relate to that, and I'm only a fan. LOL Pressure affects performance, and the pros have learned how to deal with it. So, while pressure might affect performance, there is no discernible difference in the overall stats between high and low pressure situations.

 

What I'm hearing is a lot of anecdotal evidence. Obviously, the anecdotal evidence is going to support your opinion. Show me some concrete evidence that suggests that clutch exists. I can show you tons of it that suggest that it doesn't.

 

That said, I am willing to concede that clutch may exist. But as of now, there is no evidence to support that it does.

Big Schill could dominate with substandard stuff in the post season in 2007, because the pressure didn't affect his execution. Call it anecdotal if you like, but I'd rather have him taking the bump in a big game over just about anyone, including Clemens and Randy Johnson. They had better careers, but neither was as good in big games as Big Schill. Clemens was famous for being over-amped.

[Kimmi]

I will counter with some admittedly raw 'strength of opposition' data.

 

Ortiz has played in 17 postseason series. I tabulated where each of the 17 opposing staffs finished in their league that year in ERA+. The average standing was 4.0 out of an average of 15 teams. This confirms that the overall pitching he was facing was better than what he faced in the regular season. Secondly, the pitching faced in the postseason would be further strengthened by all the off days which allow teams to completely eliminate their #5 starter, and to use their #4 starter probably only twice if they play the maximum number of postseason games. Overall strength of relief pitching would also be increased by the additional days of rest.

 

I would really like to someone tackle some strength of opposition adjustments for the postseason. The data is all there, it wouldn't be that difficult.

 

 

You do have a valid point with the strength of opposition. There are definitely fewer runs scored per game in the postseason than there are during the regular season. It's interesting to note that the HR rate is virtually the same in postseason as it is during the regular season, but that the % of runs scored via the HR is higher in the postseason. Makes sense because the postseason pitchers are less likely to allow a multi-hit rally.

 

I don't know what all of that means as it pertains to whether Papi is clutch in the postseason or not, but maybe someone else has some thoughts on it.

 

As far as looking at strength of opposition versus Papi, I'm afraid you might run into the small sample dilemma again. I don't think you can compare how strong the postseason pitching was as opposed to the regular season pitching, but rather you would have to compare how Papi performed against the specific post season pitchers versus how he performed against the same pitchers in the regular season.

[Spitball]

You do have a valid point with the strength of opposition. There are definitely fewer runs scored per game in the postseason than there are during the regular season. It's interesting to note that the HR rate is virtually the same in postseason as it is during the regular season, but that the % of runs scored via the HR is higher in the postseason. Makes sense because the postseason pitchers are less likely to allow a multi-hit rally.

 

I don't know what all of that means as it pertains to whether Papi is clutch in the postseason or not, but maybe someone else has some thoughts on it.

 

As far as looking at strength of opposition versus Papi, I'm afraid you might run into the small sample dilemma again. I don't think you can compare how strong the postseason pitching was as opposed to the regular season pitching, but rather you would have to compare how Papi performed against the specific post season pitchers versus how he performed against the same pitchers in the regular season.

 

I don't know why oppositional strength is really that important. Wins and loses all count the same. The worst teams will still beat the best teams at some point over the course of a season.

 

Pedro Martinez versus the Yankees was 32 G, 11-11 record, 3.20 ERA, 216.2 IP, 170 H, 63 BB, 261 K, 17 HR, 1.08 WHIP. Not bad but not an indication of clutch.

 

That said, David Ortiz has been mentioned. He appears to be clutch based on our memories. His career slash in the regular season is .285/.379/.547. His late and close career slash is .261/.373/.501. They are pretty close but in no way indicate overall clutch. His post season slash is .283/.402/.538 which is excellent but about his career norm.

 

Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski I believe were also below their career slash lines in late and close games.

Edited March 9, 2015 by Spitball

[a700hitter]

Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski I believe were also below their career slash lines in late and close games.

Yaz with runners in scoring position performed better than his career slash line. With RISP and 2 out his OBP was 44 points better than his career mark and his OPS was .829 versus .841 for his career. These numbers probably reflect that he was feared and that opposing managers would rather walk him than let Yaz beat them. In late and close situations, his numbers are pretty close to his career numbers.

[Spitball]

Yaz with runners in scoring position performed better than his career slash line. With RISP and 2 out his OBP was 44 points better than his career mark and his OPS was .829 versus .841 for his career. These numbers probably reflect that he was feared and that opposing managers would rather walk him than let Yaz beat them. In late and close situations, his numbers are pretty close to his career numbers.

 

His career slash line in late and close games was .279/.375/.454. His career slash was .285/.379/.462 . I don't see clutch indicated there. His numbers are about career average.

[a700hitter]

His career slash line in late and close games was .279/.375/.454. His career slash was .285/.379/.462 . I don't see clutch indicated there. His numbers are about career average.

That is what I said.

[SoxnCycles]

Yanks apparently the closest to getting Hamels. Not sure if I would like the price we'd have to pay to get him, but he'd make things a whole lot more stable in our rotation. Also, I like lefties in our park better than lefties at the fens due to death valley

 

The only person reporting this in Nick Carfardo.

The guy is wrong more often than my local weather man.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know why oppositional strength is really that important. Wins and loses all count the same. The worst teams will still beat the best teams at some point over the course of a season.

 

I'm not really sure what you're saying. Oppositional strength is always a big factor whether it's individual or team performance, in any sport.

[Bellhorn04]

You do have a valid point with the strength of opposition. There are definitely fewer runs scored per game in the postseason than there are during the regular season. It's interesting to note that the HR rate is virtually the same in postseason as it is during the regular season, but that the % of runs scored via the HR is higher in the postseason. Makes sense because the postseason pitchers are less likely to allow a multi-hit rally.

 

I don't know what all of that means as it pertains to whether Papi is clutch in the postseason or not, but maybe someone else has some thoughts on it.

 

As far as looking at strength of opposition versus Papi, I'm afraid you might run into the small sample dilemma again. I don't think you can compare how strong the postseason pitching was as opposed to the regular season pitching, but rather you would have to compare how Papi performed against the specific post season pitchers versus how he performed against the same pitchers in the regular season.

 

Personally I think there may be a number of issues that haven't been fully addressed in any analytics of clutch. The one that jumps out at me is whether sufficient consideration is given to 'season leverage' vs. 'game leverage'. In other words, an at-bat in the first inning of a crucial game in September might reasonably be argued to be higher pressure than a late and close at-bat in April.

 

I think we may see the analytics of clutch significantly revamped at some point.

[Spitball]

I'm not really sure what you're saying. Oppositional strength is always a big factor whether it's individual or team performance, in any sport.

 

Yes, but in my opinion, baseball statistics are a nice reference point, as well as indicators of past and future performance. I don't need to break down OPS by oppositional strength to tell me about a player's performance.

 

I believe advanced analytics would be interesting, but not necessary for me. I have studied linear weight formulas, runs created, and other complicated analytics, but I find OBP, OPS, and various splits answer most of my questions about evaluation.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, but in my opinion, baseball statistics are a nice reference point, as well as indicators of past and future performance. I don't need to break down OPS by oppositional strength to tell me about a player's performance.

 

My point with the oppositional thing was limited to analyzing Ortiz's postseason OPS of .962. That may not seem much higher than his regular season OPS of .926, but if you consider that he's also facing better pitching in the postseason, I think you can make a reasonable case that the margin is greater.

[Kimmi]

Big Schill could dominate with substandard stuff in the post season in 2007, because the pressure didn't affect his execution. Call it anecdotal if you like, but I'd rather have him taking the bump in a big game over just about anyone, including Clemens and Randy Johnson. They had better careers, but neither was as good in big games as Big Schill. Clemens was famous for being over-amped.

 

 

Truth be told, I would take Schilling on the mound in a big game too. But that proves nothing, other than maybe we are biased fans who love Schilling.

[Kimmi]

I don't know why oppositional strength is really that important. Wins and loses all count the same. The worst teams will still beat the best teams at some point over the course of a season.

 

Pedro Martinez versus the Yankees was 32 G, 11-11 record, 3.20 ERA, 216.2 IP, 170 H, 63 BB, 261 K, 17 HR, 1.08 WHIP. Not bad but not an indication of clutch.

 

That said, David Ortiz has been mentioned. He appears to be clutch based on our memories. His career slash in the regular season is .285/.379/.547. His late and close career slash is .261/.373/.501. They are pretty close but in no way indicate overall clutch. His post season slash is .283/.402/.538 which is excellent but about his career norm.

 

Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski I believe were also below their career slash lines in late and close games.

 

 

I'm not sure how much oppositional strength would skew Papi's postseason numbers. My guess would be not as much at Bellhorn seems to think they would, but I do think it's a fair point to note. Outside of that, I am on board with everything you said.

[Kimmi]

Personally I think there may be a number of issues that haven't been fully addressed in any analytics of clutch. The one that jumps out at me is whether sufficient consideration is given to 'season leverage' vs. 'game leverage'. In other words, an at-bat in the first inning of a crucial game in September might reasonably be argued to be higher pressure than a late and close at-bat in April.

 

I think we may see the analytics of clutch significantly revamped at some point.

 

 

The analytics guys concede that one of the problems with determining whether clutch hitters exist is defining exactly what clutch means. That said, I am pretty confident in saying that I bet these guys have considered the issues that you bring up. That's what they do for a living. If we're discussing these things and we're just mere amateurs, I imagine that they've looked into them. As I've said before, they've sliced this idea up pretty much every way you can think of, and the findings are the same - clutch hitters do not exist.

 

This quote sums it up nicely:

 

"Producing wins at the plate is about 70 percent a matter of overall hitting ability, 28 percent dumb luck, and perhaps 2 percent clutch- or situational-hitting skill."

[Bellhorn04]

I know I can't win this argument, Kimmi. Truth be told, I'm just trying to lose with honor.

[Bellhorn04]

What about managers and coaches choking under pressure? Grady Little, Pete Carroll?

[a700hitter]

What about managers and coaches choking under pressure? Grady Little, Pete Carroll?

The question comes down to who you believe -- analytics produced by pencil-pushers or the guys that played the game.

[Bellhorn04]

Back to the oppositional thing for a moment - I forgot that they do give you a set of splits on this in Baseball-Ref.

 

Papi's career OPS vs. teams over .500 = .909

Papi's career OPS vs. teams below .500 = .944

 

So there is a difference, not huge, but .035 of OPS.

[Kimmi]

I know I can't win this argument, Kimmi. Truth be told, I'm just trying to lose with honor.

 

 

LOL Bell, you are hardly losing anything. Even when we disagree, you always bring up valid arguments. I always enjoy your posts.

[Kimmi]

The question comes down to who you believe -- analytics produced by pencil-pushers or the guys that played the game.

 

 

Sigh....

 

Who says that those two groups are mutually exclusive? I bet you'd be surprised by how much baseball some of the pencil pushers have played and watched.

[Kimmi]

Back to the oppositional thing for a moment - I forgot that they do give you a set of splits on this in Baseball-Ref.

 

Papi's career OPS vs. teams over .500 = .909

Papi's career OPS vs. teams below .500 = .944

 

So there is a difference, not huge, but .035 of OPS.

 

If I get some time, I will look into this strength of opposition more closely. The stats are there, I just think it will be time consuming.

[a700hitter]

Sigh....

 

Who says that those two groups are mutually exclusive? I bet you'd be surprised by how much baseball some of the pencil pushers have played and watched.

The baseball players whose opinions I would value probably don't know which end of the pencil to hold.

[Spitball]

I know I can't win this argument, Kimmi. Truth be told, I'm just trying to lose with honor.

 

She is indeed very good.

 

Sigh....

 

Who says that those two groups are mutually exclusive? I bet you'd be surprised by how much baseball some of the pencil pushers have played and watched.

 

Exactly! The best analysis would obviously use both. I wouldn't want my doctor to use just observation, but I would want him to combine his observations with current analytic findings. It makes perfect sense in this informational era.

[Spudboy]

From MLB Trade Rumors comes bad news for the Jays:

 

"Marcus Stroman Likely Out For Season With Torn ACL".

 

This is one of my favorite young pitchers. The guy has nasty stuff.

 

While his injury may make a division rival weaker, I hate to see this happen to such a promising young talent.

 

At 23, he has plenty of time to recover and to establish himself as one of the best young arms in the game.

 

I hope to see Norris take his place.

[Kimmi]

She is indeed very good.

 

Exactly! The best analysis would obviously use both. I wouldn't want my doctor to use just observation, but I would want him to combine his observations with current analytic findings. It makes perfect sense in this informational era.

 

Thank you for the vote of confidence Spitball. I appreciate it.

 

If you have someone armed with just their observations versus someone armed with their observations plus a wealth of data, who do you think is going to make a better assessment? It's not rocket science.

[Kimmi]

From MLB Trade Rumors comes bad news for the Jays:

 

"Marcus Stroman Likely Out For Season With Torn ACL".

 

This is one of my favorite young pitchers. The guy has nasty stuff.

 

While his injury may make a division rival weaker, I hate to see this happen to such a promising young talent.

 

At 23, he has plenty of time to recover and to establish himself as one of the best young arms in the game.

 

I hope to see Norris take his place.

 

 

Tough break. I always hate to hear about injuries like this. He and his teammates are reportedly devastated. Fortunately for him, he is still young and should be able to bounce back and have a successful career. He owned the Sox last year.

[a700hitter]

Cliff Lee is done. I wonder if that makes it more or less likely that Hamels gets traded.

[Bellhorn04]

Cliff Lee is done. I wonder if that makes it more or less likely that Hamels gets traded.

 

I think it's almost a lock that Hamels gets traded.

 

I wonder if this would do it: Kelly, Cecchini, Victorino (Sox paying some of his salary) + one more second-tier prospect.

[Spudboy]

I think it's almost a lock that Hamels gets traded.

 

I wonder if this would do it: Kelly, Cecchini, Victorino (Sox paying some of his salary) + one more second-tier prospect.

 

That would be nice. Amaro seems to be waiting for a score of two or three top tier type prospects.

 

Maybe he will lower his requirements ?

 

I have no idea how your offer matches up with the Phillie's needs.