2014 Offseason Thread

[Bellhorn04]

Then why aren't ever hitters stats as good in that situation? Where is he in relation to the league norm in that situation? If he is far above the league norm, the explanation about pitchers pitching to the situation doesn't hold water. Also, you acknowledge that pitchers pitch to situations. Why shouldn't hitters adapt to different situations?

 

Jeez, take it easy with the barrage of questions. I already said I couldn't explain it and threw a guess out there.

[cp176]

I love your approach and philosophy about baseball.

 

I love to study the game but it has to be fun for me. I pay my accountant to do my taxes as well. I would never have wanted his job and I'm sure he would not have wanted mine. I really am glad that there are those who love the stat work and put so much faith in them. I truly do not know nor do I care what most of the acronyms thrown around even mean. I know one thing 700, I was finally having a decent round of golf down here and got rained out after 13 holes. Where is that Florida sunshine? Better here than up north though.

[Ogden]

http://www.smccd.edu/accounts/ctl/websavvy/img/eyes.gif

 

I guess there really are 187 ways to support, refute, critique Napoli's level of contribution. Delving into all the stats available on Baseball Reference for one player boggles the mind. Pick 2 or 3 of your choice to assist or crush any opinion. I think I'll pass for now.

Edited February 28, 2015 by Ogden

[a700hitter]

Jeez, take it easy with the barrage of questions. I already said I couldn't explain it and threw a guess out there.

 

Lol! Don't worry Bells. You challenged my assertion about situational strategy essentially to prove that Naps is doing everything right. I just challenged what those stats mean or prove. I just don't think that making a better effort to adapt to situations would be detrimental to overall performance. I don't think that any stats prove that. Now, it may be true that trying it would mess up Napoli, but I view that as a weakness in his game. That doesn't mean that he is not a good productive player. It means that he can't do certain things that would improve his game. His good productivity doesn't mean that the third base coach should overlook his lack of speed when he is on second base and there is line single to left field. More speed would help his game too, but you can't learn speed.

[jd98]

Then why aren't every hitters stats as good in that situation? Where is he in relation to the league norm in that situation? If he is far above the league norm, the explanation about pitchers pitching to the situation doesn't hold water. Clutch sounds like the only good explanation.

 

Most hitters do have better numbers with man on third and less than 2 outs. I'm assuming it's because they can make what normally is an out (a flyball), but not have it count as an out. Last year in the AL, batters hit .253/.316/.390 overall. With a man on 3rd less than 2 out, they hit .333/.363/.495. In the 2013, the numbers were .256/.320/.404 and .317/.345/.486

Edited February 28, 2015 by jd98

[Kimmi]

And maybe he would be more productive if he worked on shortening up on his swing and just trying to make contact in certain situations. Acknowledging his productivity doesn't mean that he couldn't be more productive if he tried a different approach. The fact that Napoli is productive is not proof that the swing from the heels approach is superior to a situationally strategic approach. It doesn't prove that at all.

 

 

Another thing that you have to keep in mind is that in most cases, playing for one run is not the proper strategy. Hitting a sac fly or advancing a runner from second is akin to the sacrifice bunt. They have their places in the game, but the overwhelming majority of the time, the team should not be playing for one run, and should not be willing to give up that out so readily. They should be playing for the big inning, which means, swinging from the heels.

[Kimmi]

I understand what you're saying, of course. But I think a guy like Napoli is a smart veteran hitter and if he tried a different approach it could mess him up. I think he knows what's good for him a lot better than we do. And I don't think he swings for the fences all the time either. I've seen him dump plenty of bloopers for singles.

 

Naps is a smart, veteran hitter. I'm sure he knows when the situation calls for him shortening up on his swing.

[Kimmi]

I don't doubt that Napoli tried it, and that it didn't work for him. That doesn't mean that he isn't immune from criticism for his inability to execute in those situations. There is no validity, statistical otherwise, that a swing from the heels method is more productive in those situations.

 

 

There is not. But neither is there any validity that says that changing his approach will make him more productive in those situations.

[Kimmi]

How do you explain that his stats are better in that situation than his overall stats? Clutch?

 

 

Small sample size, spread out over 9 years. That's more or less what it amounts to.

[Kimmi]

"takes advantage of ....those situations a little more." That sounds like "clutch". You could have said that in 1 word instead of the 14 that you used.

 

Stop with the "clutch" nonsense. A smart hitter knowing how to take advantage of the way he's pitched is not clutch. It's being a good hitter. They do this all the time, not just in clutch situations.

[Kimmi]

For the record, I am a Napoli fan. I already had the part about the power hitters striking out a lot figured out.. Thankfully there is a need for both. Not everyone was made to swing for the fences. I like the statistics and can see the value in them. I am not in love with them. I'm not a casual fan but I have little interest in a total immersion of statistical data. I know that you can live with that. Even though I might be uninformed, you never know when I might come up with something worthwhile. Most of what I say or predict might be refutable or even proveable by using statistics. I think that you can have an opinion and talk intelligently about the game without being in one camp or the other.

 

 

You can absolutely have an opinion and talk intelligently about the game without being in one camp or other. Statistics are not for everyone. I understand that. You are knowledgeable about the sport and have a lot to contribute. If I disagree with something you say, I'm going to state that, and I will likely use stats to back up my opinion. That's just the way I roll. It doesn't mean that you don't have a lot to contribute to this forum.

[jd98]

Small sample size, spread out over 9 years. That's more or less what it amounts to.

 

Nah, league numbers are significantly better in that situation over large sample sizes. Check my post just above your posts.

 

As for Napoli, he has a career strikeout rate of 26.6%. With runner on 3rd less than 2 out his K rate is 19.8%. In 2014 AL, K rate was 19.8%, and with runner on 3rd less than 2 out it was 16%. So Napoli does make a good effort to cut down his K's in that situation. Note that K rate is based on plate appearances, so there is not an automatic improvement because of sac flies not counting as outs like in the slash line stats.

[cp176]

Another thing that you have to keep in mind is that in most cases, playing for one run is not the proper strategy. Hitting a sac fly or advancing a runner from second is akin to the sacrifice bunt. They have their places in the game, but the overwhelming majority of the time, the team should not be playing for one run, and should not be willing to give up that out so readily. They should be playing for the big inning, which means, swinging from the heels.

 

 

ty for your previous comments .

 

You are right - in a clear majority of the time, playing for run is not the way to go. Who does that? It worked for the 1959 White Sox - I don't know about anyone since. Once again, I like Napoli. He wasn't signed to help anybody play small ball. the fact remains though, at this level when the situation dictates, once again a clear majority of players should be able to move runners along. I understand that all need to play to their strengths, but most major leaguers at one time or another could drop down a bunt when needed or hit behind a runner to advance them. It's a strategy that still has its place in the game.

[Kimmi]

Nah, league numbers are significantly better in that situation over large sample sizes. Check my post just above your posts.

 

As for Napoli, he has a career strikeout rate of 26.6%. With runner on 3rd less than 2 out his K rate is 19.8%. In 2014 AL, K rate was 19.8%, and with runner on 3rd less than 2 out it was 16%. So Napoli does make a good effort to cut down his K's in that situation. Note that K rate is based on plate appearances, so there is not an automatic improvement because of sac flies not counting as outs like in the slash line stats.

 

League numbers are definitely significant, but Napoli's sample size is still too small to draw any conclusions about his BA, OBP, and SLG. The league numbers are rather convincing though.

 

As far as K rate goes, that stabilizes at about 60 PA, so noting that his K rate is down with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs is valid. He's a good, veteran hitter. He knows what the situation calls for.

[Kimmi]

ty for your previous comments .

 

You are right - in a clear majority of the time, playing for run is not the way to go. Who does that? It worked for the 1959 White Sox - I don't know about anyone since. Once again, I like Napoli. He wasn't signed to help anybody play small ball. the fact remains though, at this level when the situation dictates, once again a clear majority of players should be able to move runners along. I understand that all need to play to their strengths, but most major leaguers at one time or another could drop down a bunt when needed or hit behind a runner to advance them. It's a strategy that still has its place in the game.

 

I don't disagree cp. There are definitely situations that call for batters to do certain things. Batters should be able to execute what the situation calls for. I'm just saying that people should not get all over Napoli for his high K rate. He is not hurting the team because he strikes out a lot.

[a700hitter]

There is not. But neither is there any validity that says that changing his approach will make him more productive in those situations.

I think you just dittoed me.

[a700hitter]

Small sample size, spread out over 9 years. That's more or less what it amounts to.

 

Then the stats for that situation have no value as support for any theory. That is what I told Bells when he posted those stats -- that they didn't establish anything.

[cp176]

I don't disagree cp. There are definitely situations that call for batters to do certain things. Batters should be able to execute what the situation calls for. I'm just saying that people should not get all over Napoli for his high K rate. He is not hurting the team because he strikes out a lot.

 

I agree with you here. Napoli wasn't signed to play small ball. He's not that kind of hitter. If he is healthy, he could have a very productive season. With more power bats in the lineup, pitchers shouldn't have the comfort of being too careful with him when he comes to the plate.

[Bellhorn04]

Going back to Napoli's career stats with a runner at third, less than 2 outs:

 

It's 252 plate appearances.

 

52 hits-10 HR, 19 2B, 23 1B

27 sac flies

35 walks

50 strikeouts

 

Napoli strikes out fewer times in those situations than he does in general. He has a better ratio of walks to strikeouts in those situations than he does in general.

 

What I would ask is, where is the evidence that in those situations Napoli isn't using a situational approach, and where's the evidence that he's only swinging for the fences?

[Kimmi]

I think you just dittoed me.

 

 

Then why are you arguing with me? ;-)

[Kimmi]

Then the stats for that situation have no value as support for any theory. That is what I told Bells when he posted those stats -- that they didn't establish anything.

 

 

Maybe the slash line didn't establish anything, but the K rate did.

[Kimmi]

What I would ask is, where is the evidence that in those situations Napoli isn't using a situational approach, and where's the evidence that he's only swinging for the fences?

 

There is none.

[Kimmi]

Some other Napoli stats, which I've been withholding from the general public. LOL

 

With a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs, Napoli scored the runner 48% of the time for his career. The league average is 51%. However, Napoli's rate in 2014 was 64%.

 

With a runner on 2nd and 0 outs, Napoli advanced the runner 51% of the time for his career. The league average is 56%. Napoli's 2014 rate was only 17%.

 

Does this indicate anything about whether Napoli changes his approach or not? Not really, but interesting info at any rate.

[a700hitter]

Some other Napoli stats, which I've been withholding from the general public. LOL

 

With a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs, Napoli scored the runner 48% of the time for his career. The league average is 51%. However, Napoli's rate in 2014 was 64%.

 

With a runner on 2nd and 0 outs, Napoli advanced the runner 51% of the time for his career. The league average is 56%. Napoli's 2014 rate was only 17%.

 

Does this indicate anything about whether Napoli changes his approach or not? Not really, but interesting info at any rate.

If the stats don't establish anything then what was the purpose of citing them in the context of this discussion, especially in light of the fact that you consider them to be a small sample size? Small sample sizes have no reliability.

[Palodios]

Carfado is wondering if the Blue Jays or Angels might be interested in Red Sox outfielders through the Hamilton issues / Saunders injury. Hopefully everyone has good springs.

[Kimmi]

If the stats don't establish anything then what was the purpose of citing them in the context of this discussion, especially in light of the fact that you consider them to be a small sample size? Small sample sizes have no reliability.

 

 

Because I thought they were interesting? I can't post things because I find them interesting?

[a700hitter]

Because I thought they were interesting? I can't post things because I find them interesting?

 

Yes, I think stats are interesting too, but in those instances where they can't establish or prove a case, we need to resort to our eyes and studied observation.

 

I don't mind when stats are used to refute assertions or support an argument. I hope that you don't mind if I pick apart those stats in the context of a discussion if I think the recited stats are inadequate to prove or disprove a certain position.

 

I do know something for certain. After this discussion, I am very interested to watch Napoli in 2015 in those situations. I am curious to see if he chokes up a bit or shortens his stroke or looks to take the ball the other way. My interest in this regard has been piqued, and isn't that what these forums are intended to do. Too many people (not referring to you) must have their arguments prevail and they demand capitulation from those holding differing views. Now, I am one stubborn SOB so I am not in the habit of capitulating (and especially not with my strongly held beliefs), but I like to read other viewpoints and they change my opinion more often than I let on.

[a700hitter]

Carfado is wondering if the Blue Jays or Angels might be interested in Red Sox outfielders through the Hamilton issues / Saunders injury. Hopefully everyone has good springs.

 

He has to put out an article, and nothing else is going on. In this regard, your opinion means the same to me as his does. This is not a slam at you, Pal. I like both you and Cafardo.

[Palodios]

He has to put out an article, and nothing else is going on. In this regard, your opinion means the same to me as his does. This is not a slam at you, Pal. I like both you and Cafardo.

 

In all fairness, I phrased it as "Cafardo wonders", not "Cafardo is hearing reports from". I too, am wondering about what the Red Sox are going to do to solve the outfield logjam.

[a700hitter]

In all fairness, I phrased it as "Cafardo wonders", not "Cafardo is hearing reports from". I too, am wondering about what the Red Sox are going to do to solve the outfield logjam.

 

Yep. I think it is something that we are all wondering and hoping about.