2014 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

Reservations? No, it's too early for reservations. He's barely 22. Most other 22 year-olds are happy to be at AA, which is a level he's already put up an OPS of .922 at 19 and 20. If he's healthy this year and his OPS is under .800 I will be more concerned but for now I've seen enough offensive talent to see why MLB, BP and Baseball America all had him as the #2 prospect last year.

 

My perspective about how good his defense needs to be is based on how good his offense is. If he's hitting like Miguel Cabrera and playing below average SS it's probably okay. If he's hitting like Nick Punto and fielding like Miguel Cabrera then his fielding is a huge problem.

 

It's hard to think that Fred is being reasonable proclaiming that Bogaerts has some huge irreversible flaw. I think he will be in the big leagues for the next 12-15 years. Given that I'm willing to wait before I order the wording on his career-tombstone.

I haven't seen enough offensive talent from him to justify the lofty expectations. His fielding needs a lot of work. As of now, it is not adequate. The slider down and away also has been his kryptonite just like Middlebrooks. In 2012 at age 23, Middlebrooks 0PSed .835 in almost 300 PA. He was hitting balls a mile. The pitchers found his vulnerability and the guy has been spiraling toward the drain ever since August 2012. XB showed nothing at all in 2014. He got worse as the season progressed until garbage time in September. He OPS'd at .360 in August in 21 games and .426 in June in 25 games. 360 and .426! That is beyond awful. Mario Mendoza for whom the "Mendoza Line" was named had a .507 career OPS. I am hopeful about Bogaerts, but I do have reservations.

[example1]

I haven't seen enough offensive talent from him to justify the lofty expectations. His fielding needs a lot of work. As of now, it is not adequate. The slider down and away also has been his kryptonite just like Middlebrooks. In 2012 at age 23, Middlebrooks 0PSed .835 in almost 300 PA. He was hitting balls a mile. The pitchers found his vulnerability and the guy has been spiraling toward the drain ever since August 2012. XB showed nothing at all in 2014. He got worse as the season progressed until garbage time in September. He OPS'd at .360 in August in 21 games and .426 in June in 25 games. 360 and .426! That is beyond awful. Mario Mendoza for whom the "Mendoza Line" was named had a .507 career OPS. I am hopeful about Bogaerts, but I do have reservations.

 

Those are valid points all. I think we know after many years on this site that we each have a different tolerance for uncertainty. I mean, until he's actually producing on the field you are going to be worried. I understand why you would be. I just think there's a lot of good ingredients there. Comparing him to Middlebrooks seems a little premature. In Middlebrooks' age 21 season he put up a .770 OPS, in High-A Salem. He had yet to have his breakout minor league season.

[cp176]

Xb I think will hit but he will be a liability at the ss position. Worth keeping but not as a ss. You play an average at best ss, you better have a dominant pitching staff.

[Station 13]

Bogaerts season could be split into 2 last year, one where he OPSed close to .900, the other he was a .500 guy. Give it time, he hit 12HR last year, could have been closer to 20HR if the green monster didn't robbed him. Don't give up on a SS who has 30HR pop.

[a700hitter]

I remain hopeful about XB, but unless the FO is very confident in him, I' d rather move him for a Hamel's before he gets exposed. If they stick with XB, I have to assume/hope that he will be okay.

[MJantomaso]

Shields asking price is 5/110. I don't think that is TOO bad.

[alphilip77]

Given his age, five years is ridiculous. I know it's likely his last chance to cash in, but to pay a pitcher into his late 30s that much money is absurd. I'd offer him 3 years at a much higher AAV, with the possibility of a 4th year if his agent twisted my arm, but that would be it. If someone else wants to give him that contract I certainly won't lose any sleep at night.

[Palodios]

Shields asking price is 5/110. I don't think that is TOO bad.

 

The problem is that you'd be paying for his age 33, 34, 35, 36, and 37 seasons.

 

That wouldn't be so bad if there wasn't a gigantic pile of top pitchers available next year. headlined by Zimmerman, Price, Cueto. Why pay 110 for Shields this year, if one of those other guys might be available for 140 next year?

[RedSoxNC84]

The problem is that you'd be paying for his age 33, 34, 35, 36, and 37 seasons.

 

That wouldn't be so bad if there wasn't a gigantic pile of top pitchers available next year. headlined by Zimmerman, Price, Cueto. Why pay 110 for Shields this year, if one of those other guys might be available for 140 next year?

 

With all of the money coming off the books next season that can still be done though

[cp176]

The only thing left for BC to get is a number one starter. I think the Sox will be patient and let the demands being asked for come down. The idea of giving up Betts and Swihart for Hamels isn't flying right now. The price for Zimmermann is also to high currently. I could see the Sox open the season with what they have and potentially make a deal for one of these guys before the trade deadline in July. I think if all are healthy the Sox do have a bunch of 2s and 3s starters. I don't think a team can win in the playoffs unless a number 1 emerges in the playoffs though. So even if this staff success during the season, I'm not sure it could repeat that in the playoffs.

 

 

We all look forward to the spring. And like always, we have high expectations. I will support them no matter what and I will agree that the pitching staff that they have right now is better than what they finished with last year but not as good as what they started the season with. Looks to me like they are loaded up with 3,4, and 5 starters. I like the Porcello sign. I am a wait and see on Miley since he is moving to the American League. Masterson ( whom I do like ) has a lot to prove. Is he able to get back to a decent level once again? I like Joe Kelly. If this is it, just too many question marks for me.

[cp176]

Bogaerts season could be split into 2 last year, one where he OPSed close to .900, the other he was a .500 guy. Give it time, he hit 12HR last year, could have been closer to 20HR if the green monster didn't robbed him. Don't give up on a SS who has 30HR pop.

 

I have said all along that I think that he will hit. Unfortunately for us, when most think of a ss their hitting prowess is not the first thing that you look at. He is an up the middle defender who will have to cover much more ground than he did last year.

I hope that he is up to the job. it's a personal thing. If he hit .260 and was a gold glove ss, I would very happy. Maybe even .250.

[Dojji]

The problem is that you'd be paying for his age 33, 34, 35, 36, and 37 seasons.

 

That wouldn't be so bad if there wasn't a gigantic pile of top pitchers available next year. headlined by Zimmerman, Price, Cueto. Why pay 110 for Shields this year, if one of those other guys might be available for 140 next year?

 

That's an illusion to begin with. Some of those guys are going to be signed in their walk years, or traded to a new team with an extension worked into the trade. Others will, unfortunately, fall apart or get hurt or otherwise have their stock drop.

 

The free agent market always looks spectacular 2 years out, right up to the very point when it suddenly doesn't anymore.

[Palodios]

That's an illusion to begin with. Some of those guys are going to be signed in their walk years, or traded to a new team with an extension worked into the trade. Others will, unfortunately, fall apart or get hurt or otherwise have their stock drop.

 

The free agent market always looks spectacular 2 years out, right up to the very point when it suddenly doesn't anymore.

 

There has never been a year like this. Most of these guys are teams that can't afford to re-sign them -- too many of them have had their names floated out there in trade rumors. Whenever teams plan to re-sign a guy, there is a bunch of reports of teams checking in, and getting rebuffed. With guys like Price, Cueto, Zimmerman, they are very available, but no one wants to pay that price yet.

[Palodios]

There has been some talk of a Hamels for Wil Myers trade. That'd be hilarious. Hell, maybe Scherzer to San Diego makes sense.

[User Name]

Reservations? No, it's too early for reservations. He's barely 22. Most other 22 year-olds are happy to be at AA, which is a level he's already put up an OPS of .922 at 19 and 20. If he's healthy this year and his OPS is under .800 I will be more concerned but for now I've seen enough offensive talent to see why MLB, BP and Baseball America all had him as the #2 prospect last year.

 

My perspective about how good his defense needs to be is based on how good his offense is. If he's hitting like Miguel Cabrera and playing below average SS it's probably okay. If he's hitting like Nick Punto and fielding like Miguel Cabrera then his fielding is a huge problem.

 

It's hard to think that Fred is being reasonable proclaiming that Bogaerts has some huge irreversible flaw. I think he will be in the big leagues for the next 12-15 years. Given that I'm willing to wait before I order the wording on his career-tombstone.

 

I would sig this entire post if i could. Fred's been watching baseball long enough to understand how player development works, but conveniently ignores it if a player isn't one of his binkies.

[cp176]

I would sig this entire post if i could. Fred's been watching baseball long enough to understand how player development works, but conveniently ignores it if a player isn't one of his binkies.

 

Topic has been beaten literally to death. Time for a new thread. As he ages and if he gets bigger and stronger, I do think that he will become a solid hitter. As a shortstop, his hand speed may stay the same but his foot speed, overall quickness, and mobility will not. He will stick around. Whether he proceeds as a shortstop or even a member of the Red Sox, I guess we will just have to wait and see. His adequacy in the field may be good enough. We will see.

[seabeachfred]

Topic has been beaten literally to death. Time for a new thread. As he ages and if he gets bigger and stronger, I do think that he will become a solid hitter. As a shortstop, his hand speed may stay the same but his foot speed, overall quickness, and mobility will not. He will stick around. Whether he proceeds as a shortstop or even a member of the Red Sox, I guess we will just have to wait and see. His adequacy in the field may be good enough. We will see.

 

Since Bogaerts isn't one of my "binkies", so the "expert" goes, I guess that also holds true for my take on the Drew signing last year and my call of Bradley as soon as ST was over. I remember "binky" didn't agree with me on those two either, nor did he on my call that the team was NOT ready for the season due to a miserable ST month. I think I called those ones well, but couldn't say so to the Bink because by July he had fled the board again for the second time in three seasons when his take on things sank like s*** in a pool. For the record, my feeling on Bogaerts was positive entering the season but I saw with my own eyes that first Home Opening Series when he looked like two different hitters when facing a pitcher with no one on and when coming to the plate with RISP. In that now very forgettable three game series he must have left a dozen runners on base. Yes, he got hits but never with a runner on. I came back from Boston and said this guy could be a choker and caught hell from Binky and his lady friend. And just for the record, some say how well he was doing the first two months with something like a 290 average. The fact was that he was hitting about 100 points below the Mendoza line and the team had to take him out the sixth spot and put him at the second so to mitigate the weakness he had with RISP. By late may he had only 6 RBI's. SIX!!!!!

 

Could he overcome that with experience? Yes he could, but it could also be a sign of some deep problems when things are on the line, and what I was suggesting that if he is asked for in a trade for, say a Hamels or Zimmerman I would think that might be a good idea. We saw how WMB's value plummeted and right now we couldn't get a bottle of vinegar for Bradley. Perhaps we have the third of that trio who disappointed the hell out of the team this season. If I'm wrong let me have it and I will issue a solid mea culpa, but just be aware of this takes place again next year because I might just remind you of what I possibly warned about. Now we can end this topic because we all know where we stand on it.

Edited December 22, 2014 by seabeachfred

[MJantomaso]

I don't understand the rock hard boner you get for Hammels. What if we were to trade XB for Hammels? What if Hammels decides to s*** the bed (like he always has against the AL), or end up on the DL. To then watch our prized prospect flourish on another team. You need to relax and let this 22 year old mature.

[Station 13]

I really want them to strike a deal quickly for Shields. Yes his age is 33, but have you consider how reliable he is? He has toss 200IP+ since 2007. I'd rather have Shields than Cueto. The latter has average 145IP in the last 7 year.

[Palodios]

I really want them to strike a deal quickly for Shields. Yes his age is 33, but have you consider how reliable he is? He has toss 200IP+ since 2007. I'd rather have Shields than Cueto. The latter has average 145IP in the last 7 year.

 

Both have their pros and cons.

 

Cueto has been very injury prone, but he has a 2.48 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over the last 4 years. That's second only to Kershaw in both categories.

[BSN07]

I really want them to strike a deal quickly for Shields. Yes his age is 33, but have you consider how reliable he is? He has toss 200IP+ since 2007. I'd rather have Shields than Cueto. The latter has average 145IP in the last 7 year.

 

At his age his reliability is at a point where it will start working against him at some point. His arm is high mileage and a crap shoot, too risky for a 5 year deal imo. Maybe he stays a horse the entire 5 year deal but I see him falling off as the more likely scenario.

[crazydiamond]

I really want them to strike a deal quickly for Shields. Yes his age is 33, but have you consider how reliable he is? He has toss 200IP+ since 2007. I'd rather have Shields than Cueto. The latter has average 145IP in the last 7 year.

 

I didn't really like the idea of signing Shields while other options were on the table, but now I wouldn't mind it that much.

When it comes to injury concerns, one could argue he is probably more reliable at 33 than Cueto will be at 30.

I'd have trouble with anything longer than a four-year deal for Shields, though.

Money-wise, it all depends how confident the FO is about extending Porcello's deal, but does Porcello (although soon in his prime) really have that much upside to be worth more than Shields next winter? And he will demand around $20 million per year, but maybe wouldn't mind signing a shorter termed deal that would help him sign another big contract at 30.

Edited December 22, 2014 by crazydiamond

[seabeachfred]

I don't understand the rock hard boner you get for Hammels. What if we were to trade XB for Hammels? What if Hammels decides to s*** the bed (like he always has against the AL), or end up on the DL. To then watch our prized prospect flourish on another team. You need to relax and let this 22 year old mature.

 

MJ---We need a top ace and I think Hamels (one M) might be the guy......or Zimmerman or if we want to be extravagant Scherzer. What you said could happen.....Hamels could s*** the bed and Bogaerts could emerge as a standout. However, it could work the other way, and we've already gotten burned by Middlebrooks and Bradley. It will be tried your way next season because I think the Red Sox think as you and others do that X is NOT a Bradley or Middlebrooks......and for the record, if Xander is still with us I will root like hell for him to succeed. I'm just a tad worried about him.

[seabeachfred]

At his age his reliability is at a point where it will start working against him at some point. His arm is high mileage and a crap shoot, too risky for a 5 year deal imo. Maybe he stays a horse the entire 5 year deal but I see him falling off as the more likely scenario.

 

Just read that Shields is asking for a five year $110 million contract----or his agent is. I think I would pass on this guy now. He is 33 and that contract might start to look like an albatross in two or three years. Sounds to me that if his demands aren't coming down he will pitch elsewhere next season. But we still need a No. 1 ace and to me that is set in cement. We don't win next season without one unless the whole AL East is having a bad case of the runs.

[Station 13]

Both have their pros and cons.

 

Cueto has been very injury prone, but he has a 2.48 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over the last 4 years. That's second only to Kershaw in both categories.

 

Luckily, there are other starters hitting free agency next year such as Zimmermann, Price, Fister, Samaraja.

[Gringo]

James Shields is 33?

[Gringo]

I swear I thought he was 30 at most, kind of changes my outlook on a 5 year deal for him.

 

Lucchino is such a fool for bungling the Lester situation.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lester was a known commodity without draft pick compensation. It is mind boggling the sox didn't blow away the Cubs for his services. Shields is 2 years older, costs you a draft pick, shrinks in big games, and hasn't thrown 16 games a season in Fenway. Scherzer is gonna cost more and cost you a draft choice. Any of the guys available next yr will either not be available due to extensions or cost you a draft pick. The fact that they didn't go to the well for Lester makes me think theyre done in the pitching market unless they can get a bargain.

[RedSoxNC84]

I don't understand the rock hard boner you get for Hammels. What if we were to trade XB for Hammels? What if Hammels decides to s*** the bed (like he always has against the AL), or end up on the DL. To then watch our prized prospect flourish on another team. You need to relax and let this 22 year old mature.

 

Are you talking about Jason Hammel, or Cole Hamels? I can never tell.

[Palodios]

Are you talking about Jason Hammel, or Cole Hamels? I can never tell.

 

If you ever see Hammel's name, just assume we're talking about Cole. Jason isn't in play anymore, and he isn't an ace.