2014 Offseason Thread

[iortiz]

So basically what you are saying is that Ben's role is reduced to minor moves and makimg diligences than making big decisions/moves? @mvp Edited December 10, 2014 by iortiz

[SoxFanForsyth]

This is an interesting idea which i hadn't thought about. Good points.

 

Cueto posted a .236 BABIP last year. Buyer beware.

[Palodios]

Cueto posted a .236 BABIP last year. Buyer beware.

 

Cueto has a career .275 BABIP, so that doesn't seem all that crazy to me. He also has an ERA of 2.40 over the last four years -- I would imagine that is probably second only to Kershaw over that period.

[User Name]

Cueto posted a .236 BABIP last year. Buyer beware.

 

Indeed, but also remember that he's a career 3.27 ERA, 123 ERA+ guy. If you read through the thread however, you'll notice that Mat Latos is my preferred Reds starter.

[iortiz]

Cueto has a career .275 BABIP, so that doesn't seem all that crazy to me. He also has an ERA of 2.40 over the last four years -- I would imagine that is probably second only to Kershaw over that period.

 

I rather trade for Cueto than Hamels, but I honestly don't see Reds trading him unless it is for a haul of prospects around Cespedes or something.

[mvp 78]

So basically what you are saying is that Ben's role is reduced to minor moves and makimg diligences than making big decisions/moves? @mvp

 

No, I'm saying he can tell ownership who he wants, but they have the final say in regards to a budget. They haven't given him blank checks to play with. This is how most sports teams work. Any contract above 100M would have to be agreed to by ownership.

[redsoxfan3]

Yeah there's always a "pitching surplus" until the injuries start piling up and/or you trade the young pitcher that winds up becoming a superstar. There are plenty of options that cost only money. Sign two FA's, trade for the other pitcher.

 

No kidding there are plenty of options that only cost money. We clearly lost Lester last night because ownership apparently didn't want to offer Lester $25M a year. With your theory saying we have plenty of money, that is incorrect. We do have flexibility with payroll, but it is not limitless. Trading away only two of eight minor league starting pitchers will not impact our minor league depth. Think about it logically. Trading away two minor league starting pitchers for two major league starting pitchers will not impact our depth, it will only improve our rotation. We are trading away two SP's for two in return. Once again, your logic is flawed.

[iortiz]

No, I'm saying he can tell ownership who he wants, but they have the final say in regards to a budget. They haven't given him blank checks to play with. This is how most sports teams work. Any contract above 100M would have to be agreed to by ownership.

 

This is not how sport teams work, this is how every enterprise works. When a monster/trascendental deal is in place, ownerships are who make the last call.

 

This is on JH and Luchino all the way, for good or for bad. The Panda signing. The HR signing. The epic fail for Lester. The trade with LAD, etc.

 

GM's role is to make the diligences and suggest, that's all. I only wonder whether BC told to the owners that the 70 M offer was a ridiculous approach at the time or not.

[User Name]

No kidding there are plenty of options that only cost money. We clearly lost Lester last night because ownership apparently didn't want to offer Lester $25M a year. With your theory saying we have plenty of money, that is incorrect. We do have flexibility with payroll, but it is not limitless. Trading away only two of eight minor league starting pitchers will not impact our minor league depth. Think about it logically. Trading away two minor league starting pitchers for two major league starting pitchers will not impact our depth, it will only improve our rotation. We are trading away two SP's for two in return. Once again, your logic is flawed.

 

There's a difference between not wanting to give a specific player an obscene amount of dollars and not having money. John Henry himself said he's more than willing to cruise over the luxury tax. If someone knows exactly how much payroll flexibility the Sox have, it's Henry, because he writes the checks. My logic is based on what the owner of this team is saying. I suggest you check your own logic.

[redsoxfan3]

You can't compare one-year production in this scenario, because not only was Masterson injured (and this is common knowledger) but Porcello greatly outpitched his peripherals last year, which were similar to the rest of his 4.30 ERA career.

 

Compare the three years prior to 2014 for both pitchers:

 

Porcello average : 178 IP, 4.56 ERA, 96 ERA+, 1.4 (!) WHIP, 5.9 K/9.

 

Masterson average: 205 IP, 3.85 ERA, 100 ERA+, 1.3 WHIP, 7.5 K/9.

 

So you're basically looking at two league-average pitchers, but one is only going to cost you money and people in the industry believe he's bound to bounce back to his pre-injury performance since he has no arm-related issues.

 

I'm also not buying Porcello to the Red Sox because his peripherals just aren't that good.

 

So, according to your logic, I cannot look at something that happened last year? You can compare one year production in this scenario. Porcello had a solid year last year and Masterson's injury prone season was horrible. I took a look at their career numbers.

 

This debate is just all subjective. I can argue my opinion and you can argue your opinion. The biggest concern that I have with Masterson is what makes you think he will be completely healthy in 2015? There is no guarantee, so you have a risk there. Is there a chance that Porcello's ERA regresses toward his career ERA? Based off of his peripherals like you stated, there is obviously that chance. In my mind, Porcello is healthy and is coming off of a career year. As of right now, that is more intriguing to me than facing the uncertainty with Masterson's health.

[User Name]

So, according to your logic, I cannot look at something that happened last year? You can compare one year production in this scenario. Porcello had a solid year last year and Masterson's injury prone season was horrible. I took a look at their career numbers.

 

This debate is just all subjective. I can argue my opinion and you can argue your opinion. The biggest concern that I have with Masterson is what makes you think he will be completely healthy in 2015? There is no guarantee, so you have a risk there. Is there a chance that Porcello's ERA regresses toward his career ERA? Based off of his peripherals like you stated, there is obviously that chance. In my mind, Porcello is healthy and is coming off of a career year. As of right now, that is more intriguing to me than facing the uncertainty with Masterson's health.

 

I'm not saying you can't, you can do whatever you want. The problem is that one-year performances will never trump career numbers unless you're looking at special circumstances. The Masterson health concerns are valid, but many in the industry believe he's past them and he's been way more consistent. As you say though, arguments are subjective, so let's agree to disagree.

[redsoxfan3]

There's a difference between not wanting to give a specific player an obscene amount of dollars and not having money. John Henry himself said he's more than willing to cruise over the luxury tax. If someone knows exactly how much payroll flexibility the Sox have, it's Henry, because he writes the checks. My logic is based on what the owner of this team is saying. I suggest you check your own logic.

 

I completely understand we are willing to go over the luxury tax. You said it yourself, only Henry knows how much his budget is for the team. The only fact that I have is that the Red Sox were all in on Lester and fell short of 3 million per year in the Lester sweepstakes. That does not look good. There are not many left handed pitchers available, let alone an ace that we are familiar with. I have no idea how much money we have left to spend. All I know is that we didn't want to bring back Lester and it does not look to promising with our payroll at this point based off of the limited sample size that we have to work with.

 

Let me just go on record hear by stating that I am completely fine with only spending money to sign FA SP's. My proposal was just an idea of what the team could do. In my mind, we have the flexibility to trade a couple of young SP's and we have a surplus of OF's. I know that a trade is going to happen one way or another, which is why I was coming up with trade proposals. We can sign three SP's via free agency or we can trade for three SP's. I don't give a s*** how it gets done. I just think that we all know that the big priority is SP'ing.

[seabeachfred]

I was agreeing with your point Mr Cubs fan.

 

I don't have a #2 team. It's BoSox uber alles for me. In college football I can root for all Pac 12 teams, but can't do that with pro sports. If the Sox are out of it, I lose interest and want the whole league to crash into a mountain and eat itself.

 

Mr. Cub Fan?????? It's 95 to 5 in that regard and I only check to see how they do if the Red Sox lose (which we did too damn much this season to suit me...or you). If the Cubs win I get a smitten of satisfaction and need that my friend. Tell me this, do you get up in the night for your nightly pit stop and then walk the floor cursing because the Sox lost the game that day and are told by your wife to get the hell back to bed? But I learned something about you the last day or so. Despite our differences in the past I'm more like you than you think.

[User Name]

I completely understand we are willing to go over the luxury tax. You said it yourself, only Henry knows how much his budget is for the team. The only fact that I have is that the Red Sox were all in on Lester and fell short of 3 million per year in the Lester sweepstakes. That does not look good. There are not many left handed pitchers available, let alone an ace that we are familiar with. I have no idea how much money we have left to spend. All I know is that we didn't want to bring back Lester and it does not look to promising with our payroll at this point based off of the limited sample size that we have to work with.

 

Let me just go on record hear by stating that I am completely fine with only spending money to sign FA SP's. My proposal was just an idea of what the team could do. In my mind, we have the flexibility to trade a couple of young SP's and we have a surplus of OF's. I know that a trade is going to happen one way or another, which is why I was coming up with trade proposals. We can sign three SP's via free agency or we can trade for three SP's. I don't give a s*** how it gets done. I just think that we all know that the big priority is SP'ing.

 

I think you're confusing their typical MO of assigning a value to a player and not budging and their overall flexibility.If we go by what Henry said, they've got money to burn if they need to.

[redsoxfan3]

I'm not saying you can't, you can do whatever you want. The problem is that one-year performances will never trump career numbers unless you're looking at special circumstances. The Masterson health concerns are valid, but many in the industry believe he's past them and he's been way more consistent. As you say though, arguments are subjective, so let's agree to disagree.

 

That is understandable. I see what you are saying. I haven't heard or read any articles from any scouts, doctors, etc. within the industry that have said that he is probably over the injury. I am sure they are out there, but I haven't done any research on it. I will take your word for it. If that is the case, I would not mind a healthy Masterson next year if he is filling in the #3 slot in the rotation.

[mvp 78]

Mr. Cub Fan?????? It's 95 to 5 in that regard and I only check to see how they do if the Red Sox lose (which we did too damn much this season to suit me...or you). If the Cubs win I get a smitten of satisfaction and need that my friend. Tell me this, do you get up in the night for your nightly pit stop and then walk the floor cursing because the Sox lost the game that day and are told by your wife to get the hell back to bed? But I learned something about you the last day or so. Despite our differences in the past I'm more like you than you think.

 

If the Sox lose game 73, I turn the tv off and go to sleep. No reason to stomp around and pout.

[redsoxfan3]

I think you're confusing their typical MO of assigning a value to a player and not budging and their overall flexibility.If we go by what Henry said, they've got money to burn if they need to.

 

I could see that and maybe I am just overreacting and overthinking us not signing Lester. I would hope that we would still have enough payroll flexibility to sign at the bare minimum two SP's, but hopefully three. At one point, I have read reports on us potentially signing Lester and trading for Hamels. That was after the Ramirez and Sandoval signings. I am sure everything has to be analyzed on a case-by-case basis.

[User Name]

I could see that and maybe I am just overreacting and overthinking us not signing Lester. I would hope that we would still have enough payroll flexibility to sign at the bare minimum two SP's, but hopefully three. At one point, I have read reports on us potentially signing Lester and trading for Hamels. That was after the Ramirez and Sandoval signings. I am sure everything has to be analyzed on a case-by-case basis.

 

That's what i always say.

[seabeachfred]

I can see JH and Luchino saying to Ben... "Now that Lester's gone... what is your plan B Ben? Overpay Scherzer or Shields... or trade for Hamels/Cueto for a haul of prospects?."

 

And if he had any balls, Cherington would be saying to them...."You two guys f***ed this Lester thing up. What is your plan and how much money or prospects are you willing to expend to make us a contender next season.....or do you want to keep screwing up like the two f***ing losers you are? Of course he then would most likely be on borrowed time but he then could go work for Epstein as gofer or something.

[gojohn99]

I'm not surprised that Lester is gone. They should have made better offers last spring. I think Lucchino is the guy to blame.

 

How often does a guy resign with his original team after being traded at midseason. Has it ever happened?

 

Wonder who is the responsable on this "misread value". If this is on Ben, he must go. This thing, should't take it lightly IMO.

[mvp 78]

And if he had any balls, Cherington would be saying to them...."You two guys f***ed this Lester thing up. What is your plan and how much money or prospects are you willing to expend to make us a contender next season.....or do you want to keep screwing up like the two f***ing losers you are? Of course he then would most likely be on borrowed time but he then could go work for Epstein as gofer or something.

 

Losers? They did win 3 WS didn't they? Maybe I'm misremembering?

[jd98]

Ben has gone quiet today. I haven't heard reports on anything. They must dedicating a day to cool off instead of making rash decisions.

I hope that's true. I was expecting a panic move.

I'm not saying you can't, you can do whatever you want. The problem is that one-year performances will never trump career numbers unless you're looking at special circumstances. The Masterson health concerns are valid, but many in the industry believe he's past them and he's been way more consistent. As you say though, arguments are subjective, so let's agree to disagree.

Masterson's ERA the last 5 years is 4.70, 3.21, 4.93, 3.45, 5.88, so I'm not seeing the consistency you speak of. Masterson and Porcello's career ERA and WHIP are almost the same. I wouldn't want either, but if forced by gunpoint to choose, I'd pick the one that wasn't horrendous in the most recent season.

 

Latos is good, but elbow surgery after 2013 and shut down with elbow problems in 2014 would make me pass on him too. Read this blurb and see if you want to depend on him as a top of the rotation guy next season---

 

" Latos said Tuesday (Nov 4th) that he recently underwent a procedure to insert stem cells into his elbow to help with the missing ligament from previous bone spur surgery, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com reports. Apparently, the procedure was needed to help regrow some of the missing tissue in the elbow. Latos underwent arthroscopic surgery to remove the bone spurs from the region in October of 2013, and the elbow presented issues on and off in 2014, but manager Bryan Price has already said that he expects Latos to be fine for spring training."---

 

It does say he's supposed to be ready, but I'd have to see him pitch before I would acquire him. Same for Masterson, but I don't think they can wait that long.

[d-money]

I hope lester enjoys the losing culture with the cubbies.This team has work to do now.

[d-money]

I would prefer they go after scherzer

[User Name]

I hope that's true. I was expecting a panic move.

 

Masterson's ERA the last 5 years is 4.70, 3.21, 4.93, 3.45, 5.88, so I'm not seeing the consistency you speak of. Masterson and Porcello's career ERA and WHIP are almost the same. I wouldn't want either, but if forced by gunpoint to choose, I'd pick the one that wasn't horrendous in the most recent season.

 

Latos is good, but elbow surgery after 2013 and shut down with elbow problems in 2014 would make me pass on him too. Read this blurb and see if you want to depend on him as a top of the rotation guy next season---

 

" Latos said Tuesday (Nov 4th) that he recently underwent a procedure to insert stem cells into his elbow to help with the missing ligament from previous bone spur surgery, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com reports. Apparently, the procedure was needed to help regrow some of the missing tissue in the elbow. Latos underwent arthroscopic surgery to remove the bone spurs from the region in October of 2013, and the elbow presented issues on and off in 2014, but manager Bryan Price has already said that he expects Latos to be fine for spring training."---

 

It does say he's supposed to be ready, but I'd have to see him pitch before I would acquire him. Same for Masterson, but I don't think they can wait that long.

 

In my post, i noted that they were both roughly league-average over their careers, but that Masterson was more consistent in his provision on innings. The health concerns are well-founded though.

 

Ditto on Latos, but out of the three, Latos and Masterson have better stuff and peripherals.

[SeanJohn93]

Reports are that Red Sox are discussing a deal with Arizona for SP Wade Miley.

[d-money]

Miley who had an e.r.a over 4 last year?Touche lol

[User Name]

If he's going to be 3 or 4 and comes cheap, it's a decent move as he's topped 200 IP the last two seasons. If he's supposed to be 1 or 2, we're in trouble.

[Palodios]

Wade Miley? I hope they don't give up much for him -- any more than the Alex Wilson/Drake Britton tier is too much.

[Palodios]

Sports writers are obsessed with puns. I seriously hope we don't have to deal with "He's so Miley" headlines.