2014 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

If the Red Sox sign Jon Lester, Cafardo can see them moving Yoenis Cespedes for a No. 2 or No. 3 starter such as Reds hurlers Mat Latos or Mike Leake. The Reds would have a need for Cespedes’s bat, but they would also probably have a need for shortstop Deven Marrero. Meanwhile, Johnny Cueto would cost Cespedes and maybe two top prospects, but it would be tempting for Boston.

Cueto would cost Betts or XB.

[Palodios]

Cueto would cost Betts or XB.

 

Cespedes had a 3.4 WAR, and Cueto had a 4.1 WAR last year. The difference isn't that far off, and pitchers don't cost as much as they used to.

 

The package would probably start with Cespedes, include a top pitching prospect like Webster/Barnes/Ranaudo, and maybe include someone like a Bradley/WMB/Lavarnway type. No team is giving a better package than that for a rental.

[Bellhorn04]

Cueto would cost Betts or XB.

 

Would what Detroit gave up for Price be a comp to what Cincy would expect for Cueto?

[a700hitter]

Cespedes had a 3.4 WAR, and Cueto had a 4.1 WAR last year. The difference isn't that far off, and pitchers don't cost as much as they used to.

 

The package would probably start with Cespedes, include a top pitching prospect like Webster/Barnes/Ranaudo, and maybe include someone like a Bradley/WMB/Lavarnway type. No team is giving a better package than that for a rental.

So you would interpret top prospects as Webster, Ranaudo or Barnes?

[Spudboy]

I stated earlier that I like Porcello and would like him to be on the Sox as a mid-rotation pitcher. In thinking it over, I've decided that trading Cespedes straight up would not be the way to go.

 

I'd prefer to use Cespedes as the center piece in a deal for an upper tier, top of the rotation guy like Cueto.

 

I really wish Lester would end his tour of greed so the Sox could go ahead and make such trades.

 

Once that shoe falls I can see the Sox going after what they need weather it be a #1 like Cueto or a number 3-4 like Porcello.

 

And it will be great to see the Sox jettison the excess pieces that crowd the 25 man roster and possibly some suspects or prospects that are useless for anything other than trade chips ( WMB , etc. ) or blocked / redundant.

[Spudboy]

So you would interpret top prospects as Webster, Ranaudo or Barnes?

 

They are still top Sox pitching prospects. Hopefully the sox can come out of this with Owens still in Pawtucket. He needs more work and then a chance in the bigs to either perform well or crap the bed.

[Palodios]

So you would interpret top prospects as Webster, Ranaudo or Barnes?

 

They are second tier prospects -- players who will probably make it to the majors eventually, but probably not as stars. No one is going to give up a first tier prospect for one year of anyone. Look at Price, Lester, Lackey. None of those guys pulled in elite prospects. Samardzija cost an Addison Russell, but the Athletics get an extra year, and pulled in a midrotation starter with him.

 

There has been a shift that has happened in the last one or two years on how teams value their prospects. It seems like the Phillies have been trying to get franchise changing prospects for Cliff Lee and Hamels for a while, and no one has been biting.

[Spudboy]

Miller was traded for a pretty good pitching prospect. And that was for only a 2 month rental.

[a700hitter]

They are second tier prospects -- players who will probably make it to the majors eventually, but probably not as stars. No one is going to give up a first tier prospect for one year of anyone. Look at Price, Lester, Lackey. None of those guys pulled in elite prospects. Samardzija cost an Addison Russell, but the Athletics get an extra year, and pulled in a midrotation starter with him.

 

There has been a shift that has happened in the last one or two years on how teams value their prospects. It seems like the Phillies have been trying to get franchise changing prospects for Cliff Lee and Hamels for a while, and no one has been biting.

Lackey is not close to Cueto in impact. Plus, we did get an established major league pitcher in return. Lester was a two month rental, not a full year. Price did fetch young major league talent. I think people are underestimating Smyly. I agree with the author of the MLB traderumor report that top prospects in addition to Cespedes will be needed to land Cueto.

[Spudboy]

Lackey is not close to Cueto in impact. Plus, we did get an established major league pitcher in return. Lester was a two month rental, not a full year. Price did fetch young major league talent. I think people are underestimating Smyly. I agree with the author of the MLB traderumor report that top prospects in addition to Cespedes will be needed to land Cueto.

 

How can anyone question this? Even though he is a one year rental, he is a top arm in MLB. And the Sox have both the ability to trade chips for him now and to sign him to an extension.

 

Have to wonder if the reds would actually move him now. Most of their rotation is going to be free agents after 2015 and the Reds may be in the hunt for the playoffs.

 

They will need pitching in 2015 and afterwards.

[a700hitter]

How can anyone question this? Even though he is a one year rental, he is a top arm in MLB. And the Sox have both the ability to trade chips for him now and to sign him to an extension.

I think there is a combination of wishful thinking and overestimation of the value of our prospects at work. Last offseason, if I had suggested Bradley, WMB and Barnes for 1 year of Cueto, people would have scoffed at it as mortgaging the future. It would have turned out to be a steal. I really like Betts and would hate to lose him. We do have Marrero waiting in the wings to play SS and he is a superior fielding SS. XB is not. Marrero played winter ball in AZ and hit quite well.

[Palodios]

Lackey is not close to Cueto in impact.

 

Maybe not, but Lackey has a lot going for him that Cueto doesn't. He is 10 million cheaper in 2015. He came with an extra half year of control. Lackey also has playoff experience and success, whereas Cueto is 0-2 in the postseason. Cueto is a big injury risk after pitching far too many innings this year. He pitched 243 IP after only breaking 200 one other time in his career.... I'm starting to convince myself that the Red Sox shouldn't make this trade.

 

I also don't believe that Lackey "got the Red Sox a major league starter", because there was a big salary dump involved in the trade.

[sk7326]

I think there is a combination of wishful thinking and overestimation of the value of our prospects at work. Last offseason, if I had suggested Bradley, WMB and Barnes for 1 year of Cueto, people would have scoffed at it as mortgaging the future. It would have turned out to be a steal. I really like Betts and would hate to lose him. We do have Marrero waiting in the wings to play SS and he is a superior fielding SS. XB is not. Marrero played winter ball in AZ and hit quite well.

 

The .210/.260/.285 in his Pawtucket ABs much closer to his career than the 58 ABs against pitchers who generally are dead tired from a season of work. Interesting on base skills but a LOT of empty calories at the plate.

 

I think the industry view of the pitchers is not as rosy as ours. Opposite is true of Bogaerts in particular. I think WMB was much much more highly rated by Sox nation than the industry. (not that young anymore, legit questions about his actual baseball skills)

Edited November 30, 2014 by sk7326

[jd98]

Cespedes had a 3.4 WAR, and Cueto had a 4.1 WAR last year. The difference isn't that far off, and pitchers don't cost as much as they used to.

 

fwiw, baseball-reference's computer ratings (WAR) has Cespedes at 4.1 and Cueto at 6.4, which seems a better estimation to me.

[sk7326]

fwiw, baseball-reference's computer ratings (WAR) has Cespedes at 4.1 and Cueto at 6.4, which seems a better estimation to me.

 

Not sure - I tend to prefer fWAR for pitchers. Based on FIP, not runs allowed. Focuses more on what the pitcher controls.

[a700hitter]

Maybe not, but Lackey has a lot going for him that Cueto doesn't. He is 10 million cheaper in 2015. He came with an extra half year of control. Lackey also has playoff experience and success, whereas Cueto is 0-2 in the postseason. Cueto is a big injury risk after pitching far too many innings this year. He pitched 243 IP after only breaking 200 one other time in his career.... I'm starting to convince myself that the Red Sox shouldn't make this trade.

 

I also don't believe that Lackey "got the Red Sox a major league starter", because there was a big salary dump involved in the trade.

What do you think it takes to land Cueto, Price or Hamels?

[a700hitter]

The .210/.260/.285 in his Pawtucket ABs much closer to his career than the 58 ABs against pitchers who generally are dead tired from a season of work. Interesting on base skills but a LOT of empty calories at the plate.

 

I think the industry view of the pitchers is not as rosy as ours. Opposite is true of Bogaerts in particular. I think WMB was much much more highly rated by Sox nation than the industry. (not that young anymore, legit questions about his actual baseball skills)

Marrero is a far superior fielding SS than XB who will need to earn his spot with his bat. Plus, we have a pretty good 3B for the next 5 years, so if he can't develop his game at SS or hit much better than last year, he will be squeezed out.

[a700hitter]

I keep reading about XB s 2 good months that sandwiched 3 not so good months. June and July were bad (.426 and .595 OPS, respectively). August was putrid (.360 OPS).

[User Name]

fWar is generally considered a superior statistic for that specific reason. @sk

[seabeachfred]

I keep reading about XB s 2 good months that sandwiched 3 not so good months. June and July were bad (.426 and .595 OPS, respectively). August was putrid (.360 OPS).

 

The Red Sox seem determined to the core to give Bogaerts every chance to win and hold the shortstop position----and if he can rebound from his miserable season this year the team will have been vindicated. However, they had better be aware of the kids pathetic flailing with RISP and on base generally, and if this continues next season and his defense takes any kind of a tumble the team has to be ready to trade this guy post haste or we'll have another white elephant on our hands as we do now have with Middlebrooks and Bradley. And if it take Bogaerts to get either Cueto or Hamels, especially the later, I would jump at that chance. We could try Marrero at SS or sign Jed Lowrie for a year or two and let Holt play some there. Bogaerts is no use to us as the player he was this season because he stunk.

[jacksonianmarch]

He seemed to be placed in a producer's part of the batting order. Usually, when a kid comes up, you pull the pressure off him and bat him low until he proves he can handle it

[sk7326]

Marrero is a far superior fielding SS than XB who will need to earn his spot with his bat. Plus, we have a pretty good 3B for the next 5 years, so if he can't develop his game at SS or hit much better than last year, he will be squeezed out.

 

Two years younger, two levels of baseball ahead ...

[a700hitter]

Two years younger, two levels of baseball ahead ...

so what are the plans for Marrero?

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Marrero stays put unless a SS needy team has pitching to burn. I thought XB was your 3b of the future and Marrero would end up at SS as a light hitting, slick fielding guy. But with Pablo in the fold, it looks like XB is option #1 with Marrero as the fallback option

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, as much as I LOVE Fat Panda in your lineup for the next 5 yrs, I am not so thrilled that Bogaerts is on your team for years to come. I think he shakes off his rookie season and becomes a productive big leaguer. He'll be a minus defender, but he's probably going to be a .275-.290 hitter with 15-25HR a season.

[example1]

I keep reading about XB s 2 good months that sandwiched 3 not so good months. June and July were bad (.426 and .595 OPS, respectively). August was putrid (.360 OPS).

 

I'm not sure if you're trying to say he didn't have two good months sandwiched around 3 not so good months... From what I see his September was decent (.313/.317/.490/.806, 24 games) and his April and May were better (.304/.397/.438/.835, 53 games). Almost any team would gladly take those numbers. That's really two good months, three putrid months and one decent/good month.

 

All the hand wringing about Bogaerts should really stop. (note: I'm not writing to you specifically a700). He's 22. Most 22 year olds are at A or AA. He hit 12 MLB home runs last year and had a almost 80 games with an OPS above .800. He's not a guy they should trade for nearly anyone and he's not a player that other teams should expect to get back in a trade, even for an established MLB SP. I suspect very few (if any) GMs even bring his name up in discussions about potential trades. For instance, it is laughable to think that they would trade X for Cole Hamels, unless the Phillies also ate all of Hamels contract. The Sox have plenty of other interesting pieces to get a deal done, even for a proven guy like Hamels, that the idea just strikes me as silly. I think that Hamels for Betts is even a stretch for Boston, again, barring PHI paying a substantial portion of his salary.

 

All that said, I would strongly support the Sox working out a deal for Hamels where the quality of the prospects goes up as PHI takes on more and more of his salary. The idea that a team would trade a number of good prospects AND pay top dollar is a fantasy. If I were the Sox I'd be willing to offer a package around guys like Brentz, Cecchini and Johnson or comparable guys in that class. If PHI wants to move toward Rodriguez or Owens then they would need to pick up some of the salary. Betts, Swihart, Devers and Margot would be off the table most likely. If it required a better prospect I would offer one of Margot, Devers or Owens, but I wouldn't like it.

[example1]

so what are the plans for Marrero?

 

He either gets traded or is their backup infielder of the future. Probably the former. His stock is pretty high right now for someone with a sub-.700 OPS throughout his minor league career. He's probably really solid defensively but I would capitalize on other teams' interest if it's part of a deal for someone they would like to get.

[sk7326]

so what are the plans for Marrero?

 

Currency. Just like Cecchini. He undoubtedly can play SS for SOMEBODY, and perhaps even well (the glove is clearly good - not Iglesias good, but good). Brandon Crawford makes a nice living. I think this is the sort of evaluation you are making internally all the time as a franchise. Which prospects are our future guys and which ones are trade pieces. Obviously the venn diagrams intersect some but for teams like the Sox and Yankees who yes "should" be putting together a contender every year - sitting on the prospect haul a la some college football team flat doesn't make sense.

 

Right now to me Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart represent future core - there is no such thing as untouchable, but you definitely need premium, controllable big league value coming back.

 

Owens, Rodriguez, Margot are a half step down. The former two because they are pitchers (and there is always a wee bit extra risk with pitchers generally) and the latter because he is not at AA yet. (remarkable ceiling but still quite a bit of variance in his ultimate fate)

 

Then you start getting into your Cecchini, Bradley, Merrero, the rest of the Ranaudo, Webster, De La Rosa, Barnes level. There are starters here, but probably not elite ones - and the industry is in relatively sharp disagreement over what the best of this crop actually is. You are dealing either with high upside/low probability (De La Rosa, Bradley at this point) or low to modest upside with high probability (Vasquez, Merrero). This is where the trade stuff comes from ideally - because other teams have favorites from this list.

 

Then I think you also have the guys like Devers, Chavis, Ball, Sam Travis. High ceiling again, but low probability just by virtue of how far away they are from the show right now. These are the ones I agonize about because I like them and if you trade to fill a current need, they are ones likely to make developmental leaps which put egg on your face.

[curiousd]

I think that fielding may be more important relative to offense in the post season than regular season. Both KC and Giants showed spectacular defense, and right now XB does not even execute the DP on major league level. He bails out when runners come into him hard at second base, for example. I cannot see the RS doing well in the post season in 2015 with XB as regular`shortstop, even if they do get back to the PS next year.

[User Name]

That's some pretty significant hyperbole you got going there.