2014 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

It seems that the Yankees use a take-it-or-leave-it approach, whereas the Red Sox use a "here's an offer, think it over" approach, and it usually bites them in the ass.

 

The problem here is that the Red Sox need to slow-play Lester here. Trading him hurt the relationship, and they need to treat him with respect, and continue to leave the door open for him. Rumor is, the offer will be somewhere between 120-130, and he needs to give Boston a discount, so that is part of the negotiation here.

If they wanted to play it slow, they should have told him that they wanted to bring him back and that they would talk to him after he explored other offers. They gave him an offer to shop around helping him to increase his value.

[sk7326]

Of course it is their call regarding how they make an offer.

 

I dunno. You don't think Lester's people are canvassing everybody at the same time? I don't think that an offer in person (not in writing one figures) precludes that. Put simply, I don't think that Lester went from 0 offers to 1. The numbers have been floating around for a while. All we can conclude now is that the Sox offer was not crazy high.

[dupree]

I don't like the way they went about this either. Putting an offer out there just so other teams can trump it. I hope Lester does take a small hometown discount but I think with this many teams in on him it may get into a bidding war and it always seems that the red sox lose those battles. Im glad to hear the offer is in the 6 year 120 -130 range and also that they didn't make another offer that offended him. That's a plus just within itself.

[Spudboy]

so, they are going to give Lester the opportunity to shop our offer and get a higher bif from the Cubs or Yankees. That'snot smart.

 

That's why I said that they had to give Lester a "no walk" price. Apparently they did not. He may eventually choose Boston.

 

But the strong odds are that he will not. DUMB.

[sk7326]

From the stories I read, it seems "sources" indicated that Lester was not going to end the search early either way. A lot of teams are being mentioned - but I figure it will still come down to Sox v Cubs.

[dupree]

The Cubs are the club that worries me the most. When Theo knows what the price is he usually gets his man. Most pitchers like going to the NL to in prove their numbers and get into the Hall. I hope Lester is coming back here.

 

Report say that the Sox are also preparing a offer for Sandoval. I just wonder if he is still in boston. Report says that Sandoval's agent will make a call to the Giants this evening. I'm just wondering if this is a sign things will move quickly with Pablo and the deal gets done soon.

[SoxFanForsyth]

So I've got a couple thoughts.

 

1. The offer to Lester is said to be 'aggressive'. If that is true, he will be back in Boston. Think he signs a day or two before Thanksgiving. I would bet they offered 6/126, his side says '7/150' and they meet at 6/138 or 6/144. Good deal.

 

2. The Sox are said to be readying an offer for Sandoval. Given that he has a 5/90 (reportedly) offer from the Giants, I think the Sox may go either 5/100 or 6/108. They are also reportedly meeting right now before he flies out this afternoon. My hope is that, for this deal, they give him a 24-48 hour span to accept or counter.

[Bellhorn04]

So I've got a couple thoughts.

 

1. The offer to Lester is said to be 'aggressive'. If that is true, he will be back in Boston. Think he signs a day or two before Thanksgiving. I would bet they offered 6/126, his side says '7/150' and they meet at 6/138 or 6/144. Good deal.

 

Hopefully you're right.

 

I was about to say that we don't know enough to judge whether the offer they made Lester was dumb or smart. If it was 5/100, that's dumb. If it was 6/150, that's also dumb. But if it was 6/126, that seems about right - and as you say, that wouldn't be their final number. We also don't know what else was said when they met, about where things go from there.

[BornToRun]

So I've got a couple thoughts.

 

1. The offer to Lester is said to be 'aggressive'. If that is true, he will be back in Boston. Think he signs a day or two before Thanksgiving. I would bet they offered 6/126, his side says '7/150' and they meet at 6/138 or 6/144. Good deal.

 

2. The Sox are said to be readying an offer for Sandoval. Given that he has a 5/90 (reportedly) offer from the Giants, I think the Sox may go either 5/100 or 6/108. They are also reportedly meeting right now before he flies out this afternoon. My hope is that, for this deal, they give him a 24-48 hour span to accept or counter.

 

I'm all in favor of both of these coming to pass. 6/140-ish for Lester is perfectly reasonable to me and I'm on board with outbidding SF on the years or dollars to get Pablo.

 

P.S- did you receive either of the replies to your PM I sent?

[BSN07]

The Lester offer falls right in line with what the club was saying all along. The knew from the word go they would not be making the highest offer. They have said as much. They were not going to give a huge take it or leave it deal. Not how the ownership group works(Tex deal, which looks brilliant now btw). What they have probably done is give their best offer knowing already it was going to get shopped and now they wait and see if someone is willing to give so much more Lester decides to leave. Lets not for get Cliff Lee left money on the table from the Yanks to go back to the Phillies. Lester is going to face the same kind of choice.

 

And I highly doubt their is any damage in their relationship between the two parties. Who is the last guy you remember getting a hug from the owner of the team? lol imo there was an understanding pre trade that the team still very much wanted to continue to negotiate in the off season but since 2014 was a bust and the best value they could get for the last 10-12 starts of Lesters season was to trade him. Basically told him go chase a pennant in Cali for a couple months and we will be in touch.

 

I think their offer is gonna be 5 years with 2 options years at the end with a decent size buyout.Some thing like 5/110, 6th year option at 20M(10M buyout), 7th year at 20M(7.5M buyout). So it would be 5/130M, 6/137.5M, or 7/150M. All competitive offers to return to Boston.

Edited November 19, 2014 by BSN07

[User Name]

The Cubs are the club that worries me the most. When Theo knows what the price is he usually gets his man. Most pitchers like going to the NL to in prove their numbers and get into the Hall. I hope Lester is coming back here.

 

Report say that the Sox are also preparing a offer for Sandoval. I just wonder if he is still in boston. Report says that Sandoval's agent will make a call to the Giants this evening. I'm just wondering if this is a sign things will move quickly with Pablo and the deal gets done soon.

 

You're contradicting yourself here. Most of the "bidding wars" the Sox lost this decade and the past one were under Epstein's tenure as GM. Be consistent.

[sk7326]

The Lester offer falls right in line with what the club was saying all along. The knew from the word go they would not be making the highest offer. They have said as much. They were not going to give a huge take it or leave it deal. Not how the ownership group works(Tex deal, which looks brilliant now btw). What they have probably done is give their best offer knowing already it was going to get shopped and now they wait and see if someone is willing to give so much more Lester decides to leave. Lets not for get Cliff Lee left money on the table from the Yanks to go back to the Phillies. Lester is going to face the same kind of choice.

 

And I highly doubt their is any damage in their relationship between the two parties. Who is the last guy you remember getting a hug from the owner of the team? lol imo there was an understanding pre trade that the team still very much wanted to continue to negotiate in the off season but since 2014 was a bust and the best value they could get for the last 10-12 starts of Lesters season was to trade him. Basically told him go chase a pennant in Cali for a couple months and we will be in touch.

 

I think their offer is gonna be 5 years with 2 options years at the end with a decent size buyout.Some thing like 5/110, 6th year option at 20M(10M buyout), 7th year at 20M(7.5M buyout). So it would be 5/130M, 6/137.5M, or 7/150M. All competitive offers to return to Boston.

 

IIRC the Phils offered a higher AAV than the Yanks. More frontloaded. To me something with 5 years and a vesting 6th (something based on a fair innings target) and a team 7th could make sense (a longer version of the Ortiz deal).

 

Ultimately it is Lester's call (duh) assuming the offer is competitive. From most indications Boston can win if the offers are all reasonably close.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I'm all in favor of both of these coming to pass. 6/140-ish for Lester is perfectly reasonable to me and I'm on board with outbidding SF on the years or dollars to get Pablo.

 

P.S- did you receive either of the replies to your PM I sent?

 

I got both.

[SoxFanForsyth]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-design-a-red-sox-cole-hamels-trade/

 

Excellent article. Very realistic.

 

Concludes that the Sox should be able to get Hamels for Eddy Rodriguez straight up, or Margot straight up, or Devers straight up.

 

Also should be able to get him for a package of 2 of the following 3: Brian Johnson, Garin Cecchini, Matt Barnes.

 

Basically, he's saying "This is how much excess value over dollars spent you're getting from Hamels and thus these prospects are worth this dollar value".

 

Teams put dollar values on players and prospects alike, so it's a very rational way to look at this.

[BornToRun]

Found this posted on SOSH,

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2014/11/19/pablo-sandoval-kung-fu-panda-will-not-return-to-san-francisco-giants-boston-red-sox-toronto-blue-jays-gameday/

 

f*** to the yeah, Ben Cherington.

[Spudboy]

Red Sox Claim Juan Francisco

 

Lol. Chubby 3rd basemen are popular on Yawkey way.

[Palodios]

Red Sox Claim Juan Francisco

 

Lol. Chubby 3rd basemen are popular on Yawkey way.

 

Juan Francisco hit .238/.306/.504/.810 against right handed pitchers last year. The OBP sucks, but look at the slug. I cannot believe Toronto let this guy go for 2 million bucks. He seems like he fits a real need for the Red Sox.

[a700hitter]

Juan Francisco hit .238/.306/.504/.810 against right handed pitchers last year. The OBP sucks, but look at the slug. I cannot believe Toronto let this guy go for 2 million bucks. He seems like he fits a real need for the Red Sox.

Platoon at first with Napoli?

[BornToRun]

Platoon at first with Napoli?

I don't see the point in that. Napoli can handle himself against righties and lefties.

[dupree]

Found this posted on SOSH,

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2014/11/19/pablo-sandoval-kung-fu-panda-will-not-return-to-san-francisco-giants-boston-red-sox-toronto-blue-jays-gameday/

 

f*** to the yeah, Ben Cherington.

 

Now the Giants deny this report and say they are still very much in the mix for Sandoval. Who knows what to believe.

[a700hitter]

I don't see the point in that. Napoli can handle himself against righties and lefties.

Then where does Francisco play?

[seabeachfred]

If they wanted to play it slow, they should have told him that they wanted to bring him back and that they would talk to him after he explored other offers. They gave him an offer to shop around helping him to increase his value.

 

That's exactly what they should have done, but remember you and I are not the GM and Cherington is and right now he seems as flummoxed as a person can be. He acts like he' caught in a revolving door and can't fine the way out.

[seabeachfred]

From the stories I read, it seems "sources" indicated that Lester was not going to end the search early either way. A lot of teams are being mentioned - but I figure it will still come down to Sox v Cubs.

 

Watch the Yankees sk, you and the rest of the crowd here. This is the typical Yankee method of operation. Wait in the weeds and then strike when all the offers are on the table. Then we can hear our bungling front office moan how they were blindsided by the Yankees.....AGAIN!!!!! It is an old story and we've seen it all before.

[seabeachfred]

Then where does Francisco play?

 

He's a s***** player. What the hell was Cherington thinking in getting this bum? Does anyone in their right mind think this reject can help us. Cherington as his best once again.

[Palodios]

He's a s***** player. What the hell was Cherington thinking in getting this bum? Does anyone in their right mind think this reject can help us. Cherington as his best once again.

 

They claimed a player with 20 HR power off the waiver wire. They don't even have to keep him or pay him if they don't want to. Its an excellent, excellent pickup that does absolutely nothing to hurt the team.

[redsoxrules]

Lester being offered 6 years at 110-120MIL

 

Boston’s offer to Lester is in the $110-120MM range over six years, according to Cafardo (on Twitter). While that’s a notable step up in terms of their offer from last offseason, it’s still less than most expect Lester to accept.

[Palodios]

Then where does Francisco play?

 

3B. A WMB/Francisco platoon could be hilarious. They'd go 1-5 with 1 HR and 4K several nights a week.

[Palodios]

I hope that offer was closer to 120 than 110. 110 won't do it.

[BornToRun]

I hope that offer was closer to 120 than 110. 110 won't do it.

If it's the opening offer and they intend to move upward from there, it's fine, but if this is as high they'll go then we can just thank Jon for the memories and move on.

[sk7326]

If it's the opening offer and they intend to move upward from there, it's fine, but if this is as high they'll go then we can just thank Jon for the memories and move on.

 

That they were willing to get to six years makes this a serious offer. One expects it can be bargained up - but the fact that they were willing to get to 6 years is at least an acknowledgment of the reality of his market.