2014 Offseason Thread

[SoxFanForsyth]

Ben should get that done immediately if that's what it would take.

 

Reds have said they're bit trading him, so this is all for naught.

[sk7326]

Actually 2 for 4 is excellent based on prospect flameout rate.

 

If you look at the five more deeply (adding Vasquez) and sort them by ascending "right to be excited" level.

 

5. Middlebrooks - the only true "bust". The lack of patience is something you can work with, but the defense never got better and he never figured out how to cover the plate a bit better. He is also not young anymore. (more like the young side of prime) A .310 OBP would have played with a good glove and frequent light tower shots, but the latter has not materialized. And there is the injury history to boot. Him declining to do the AFL really bothered me.

 

4. Bradley - the question of his hit tool is too big to ignore. That said, unlike Middlebrooks, he already does something at a true big league all-star level. I still think there is a good chance he can hit enough for his glove to play. It probably won't be in Boston though. In either case, a glove like that means he will play big league baseball for a living in some capacity for a while.

 

3. Vasquez - if you were grading strictly on "probability" he is #1. This is a tool set that can fit on any major league roster if he did not improve one iota. The upside is limited with his bat, but there is still more and the offensive level he needs to rise up to "above average" is not that far away.

 

2. Bogaerts - You can't unsee July and August. But he showed considerable promise in a lot of other areas. He needs reps at short, and it helps that Boston's best fielding instructor is at the major league club (Butterfield). He has always been young for the level of baseball he was in, and he always caught up. Last season was tough, but it did not dim his star to me much.

 

1. Betts - Everything that is true about Bogaerts with regards to youth and figuring stuff out applies here too. He has shown more success at the big league level (in a shorter tour granted), and the athleticism and potential at premium positions puts him at #1.

 

Are there questions to be asked about development with these guys? Sure. But to me, the bigger issue has been the organization being very rash with the prospects. The decisions between "call him up now" and "gosh we need a veteran presence" seem to be made with too little time and too quickly. While I defended the Drew signing due to the horror show that was 3B, one can't help but notice management being very itchy that Bogaerts was not Alan Trammell 2.0 this very second. You saw the same thing with the management rushing to get Bradley on the opening day lineup over a handful of spring at-bats and then anointing Grady Sizemore's disheveled corpse over Bradley using the same amount of evidence. A similar rush job occurred with Middlebrooks in 2012, almost like the management wanted to pounce on any remotely positive story in such a dreadful season.

 

Contrast this with how Epstein and Francona worked in new guys and kids. You have to be willing to stand by your scouts and the players they are vouching for. There were few players who looked as unready for any sort of professional baseball gig as Pedroia did in 2006. But they stood by him as he worked things out. Even then, they used Alex Cora to provide some veteran help and whatnot - but that is a far cry from tying to usurp the kid.

[Spudboy]

Hayward to the Cards and Martin has signed a 4 year deal with the Jays.

[sk7326]

Hayward to the Cards and Martin has signed a 4 year deal with the Jays.

 

Heyward deal is fascinating. He has been simultaneously a disappointment and a very valuable player in spite of the disappointing parts. If you track what has happened in Atlanta, there is some solid evidence that there are some serious holes in their big league hitting instruction. Players have, save for a couple of exceptions, gotten worse at hitting after getting to the big club. Heyward has had some injury issues, but the approach is still sound. It might be a simple adjustment to fix him.

 

For the Cards it made a lot of sense. With Taveras' tragedy it left a hole in RF - at worst Heyward is a good on-base guy who might play the position better than anybody alive. Given his age and the coaching questions, he might be a huge candidate to realize the promise with the stick. With only one year of control it is a high risk play for the Cards, but they are definitely in a mode where that makes sense. Braves got a real good haul considering.

[a700hitter]

Reds have said they're not trading him, so this is all for naught.

So then Marrero, Ranaudo, and Coyle would not get it done. LOL!!

[SoxFanForsyth]

Pablo Sandoval is officially in Boston. Let the #PandaWatch begin.

 

https://twitter.com/joeamorosino/status/534463056617955328

[dupree]

Pablo Sandoval is officially in Boston. Let the #PandaWatch begin.

 

https://twitter.com/joeamorosino/status/534463056617955328

 

It must be the coat, but he looks thiner in my opinion. I hope he only leaves Boston to pack his bags so he can move into town. Pablo first, then Lester 2nd, and then let the trades to fill out the roster begin

[Palodios]

Really not liking Sandoval at 3B for six years. Oh well, better than WMB.

[sk7326]

I am not wild about Sandoval either - although as Dave Cameron noted, it is an interesting question ... his age indicates one thing about his future value while his body portends the opposite.

[jacksonianmarch]

This is the one FA signing I really, really hope the sox make. And that is never good for the sox. Sign him for 7 or 8 years please.

[.406]

Sandoval for the contract makes me shudder, Middlebrooks in general makes me depressed. I'm so low on Middlebrooks I'd almost rather take the punt on Sandoval just to see what happens.

[jacksonianmarch]

I am absolutely stunned that you'd go with Panda over Headley. Stunned. Headley moves to NY and puts up a better OPS than Sandoval had. He also has nearly the same WAR the last 3 seasons. Headley will cost about half what the Panda will get

[Palodios]

I am absolutely stunned that you'd go with Panda over Headley. Stunned. Headley moves to NY and puts up a better OPS than Sandoval had. He also has nearly the same WAR the last 3 seasons. Headley will cost about half what the Panda will get

 

And wouldn't take a draft pick either.... the whole thing seems awful to me.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I am absolutely stunned that you'd go with Panda over Headley. Stunned. Headley moves to NY and puts up a better OPS than Sandoval had. He also has nearly the same WAR the last 3 seasons. Headley will cost about half what the Panda will get

 

you mean Headley, playing in an extremely hitter friendly park and division put up a better OPS than Panda playing in an extremely pitcher friendly park and division? Well I have never!!

 

Panda, playing at Fenway, with his inside out swing would see a huge boost in his numbers too. Particularly his power numbers.

[jacksonianmarch]

You're drinking the Kool Aid. Like I said, the last 3 yrs they have nearly the exact same OPS, and that is with Headley playing 2.5 of those 3 seasons in Petco

[seabeachfred]

I drank all the kool aid on WMB, Bradley, XB and Ranaudo when they were signed. There is a trend being established, and the value of these guys who were supposed to be our future has come crashing down. By all means, continue to drink your own kool aid. I just hope the FO is starting to see the need for improvement in scouting and player development.

 

You wonder Ted how some people here can continue to hype our farm system and keep drinking the Cherington Kool Aid in lieu of what went down this past season. Just reminder. First Bradley was a total turd. He couldn't even hit 200 for the season and struck out like someone expected to hit 40 homers. He also didn't crack 200 in ST and in his short stay with the Sox in 2013, and let's not anyone out there talk small sample crap. That's over 600 at-bats and he kept getting worse as the at-bats progressed. Webster? Are you s***ing me? The guy is as gutless as they come, afraid to let loose with his pitches and attack th strike zone and seemingly when he does he gets torn apart by the opposing hitters. Delarosa? One good game, one bad game, and a tendency to get ripped when he doesn't have his top stuff. They there is Bogaerts, this season one of the very worst and miserable hitters with RISP from game one to the end of the season. Not much with the bat, his defense was shoddy and his base running instincts sucked all to hell. It as obvious that he was a choker from that first series in April.

 

Our farm system is vastly overrated but here's the rub. I think we have four guys who could make the Red Sox a solid team down the short road but knowing how inept our front office has been two of the last three off seasons it stands to reason they will trade the good ones and keep the duds. Blake Swihart, Mookie Betts, Garin Cecchini and Henry Owens are the four who in my opinion we must keep and eventually get into our lineup. Of course, this is only my opinion, but after the mistakes made by Cherington and the rest of his bungling brigade I would have to be in a terrible slump not to improve upon their take on the prospects they hailed and who failed miserably the past season.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You're drinking the Kool Aid. Like I said, the last 3 yrs they have nearly the exact same OPS, and that is with Headley playing 2.5 of those 3 seasons in Petco

 

I'm not drinking any kool aid. I'm looking at his statsvand actually analyzing. He got off to a putrid start this year but from 5/10 through the end of the year he hit .308/.345/.452, and that's over 502 PA so a very strong sample size. That's a 127 wrc+, which is what he was putting up at his peak. I don't know mechanically or health wise what changed but it certainly lasted long enough for it to be legit.

 

So, no, not drinking kool aid, I'm actually looking at his numbers and trying to decipher what is real and what is artificial based on a bad start.

 

And his BABIP during those 502 pa was .322. Career? .313, so not abnormal at all

[SoxFanForsyth]

A quote many on this site need to read regarding prospects.

 

https://twitter.com/bencarsley/status/534540255509360640

[Palodios]

You wonder Ted how some people here can continue to hype our farm system and keep drinking the Cherington Kool Aid in lieu of what went down this past season.

 

Here's the thing. The Red Sox have a lot of top prospects. Some, many of them are going to fail. But there will be a handful that will thrive and prosper in the majors. I don't want the team to trade away the Lesters and Pedroias because of the Lars Andersons and Michael Bowdens.

[Palodios]

I'm not drinking any kool aid. I'm looking at his statsvand actually analyzing. He got off to a putrid start this year but from 5/10 through the end of the year he hit .308/.345/.452, and that's over 502 PA so a very strong sample size. That's a 127 wrc+, which is what he was putting up at his peak. I don't know mechanically or health wise what changed but it certainly lasted long enough for it to be legit.

 

I heard something interesting the other day. Pablo lost a lot of weight last offseason, but actually ended up putting on pounds during the season. If more weight means more power, the weight-incentives John Henry is rumored to suggest aren't actually going to help the team.

[Spudboy]

you mean Headley, playing in an extremely hitter friendly park and division put up a better OPS than Panda playing in an extremely pitcher friendly park and division? Well I have never!!

 

Panda, playing at Fenway, with his inside out swing would see a huge boost in his numbers too. Particularly his power numbers.

 

With all due respect SFF, I don't subscribe to the idea that a batter will put up bigger numbers at Fenway. I remember looking at Adrian Gonzalez's swing and spray charts and almost blowing a load. He his "okay" relative to his NL numbers at Petco but was never the big boomer that we all expected. There are other examples, too.

 

Maybe he could be more effective here but I would never hang my hat on it. Now Beltre I would get exited about.

[User Name]

With all due respect SFF, I don't subscribe to the idea that a batter will put up bigger numbers at Fenway. I remember looking at Adrian Gonzalez's swing and spray charts and almost blowing a load. He his "okay" relative to his NL numbers at Petco but was never the big boomer that we all expected. There are other examples, too.

 

Maybe he could be more effective here but I would never hang my hat on it. Now Beltre I would get exited about.

 

Drew was going to be a "40-homer bat" with his other-way swing at Fenway, and Cameron was easily going to pop 30 homers because he had played all his life at pitcher-friendly parks, and had popped 25+ several times. Fenway, however, did wonders for Kevin Millar and Adrian Beltre.

[SoxFanForsyth]

With all due respect SFF, I don't subscribe to the idea that a batter will put up bigger numbers at Fenway. I remember looking at Adrian Gonzalez's swing and spray charts and almost blowing a load. He his "okay" relative to his NL numbers at Petco but was never the big boomer that we all expected. There are other examples, too.

 

Maybe he could be more effective here but I would never hang my hat on it. Now Beltre I would get exited about.

 

Adrian Gonzalez hit .347/.413/.516 at Fenway in 2011. The HR totals were a bit lower than I expected as well, probably because he didn't loft the ball enough and ended up banging line drive singles off the monster (he was SO slow), and this is reflected in his average more than his SLG.

 

Regardless, he definitely destroyed the ball at Fenway. Hitting .350 is no small feat.

 

For comparison purposes, when he played at Petco, at home he hit:

 

2010: .279

2009: .244

2008: .247

2007: .266

 

I don't think there is any question that Fenway boosted his numbers with a huge amount of significance.

[sk7326]

Adrian Gonzalez hit .347/.413/.516 at Fenway in 2011. The HR totals were a bit lower than I expected as well, probably because he didn't loft the ball enough and ended up banging line drive singles off the monster (he was SO slow), and this is reflected in his average more than his SLG.

 

Regardless, he definitely destroyed the ball at Fenway. Hitting .350 is no small feat.

 

For comparison purposes, when he played at Petco, at home he hit:

 

2010: .279

2009: .244

2008: .247

2007: .266

 

I don't think there is any question that Fenway boosted his numbers with a huge amount of significance.

 

Fenway helped him - although the doubles is where the extra boost comes from normally (and singles since yes, he is slow). The thing that changed between AGon's San Diego and Boston incarnations was that his walk rate plummeted. I think the notion was that he was some sort of power and patience god (like a supercharged Mike Napoli) when a lot of the statistical "patience" came from being the only guy of consequence is a low output lineup.

 

Clearly the shoulder injury had some lasting effect also - the on base and power numbers have never really recovered (basically he an above average first baseman now, not an elite one).

[User Name]

Fenway helped him - although the doubles is where the extra boost comes from normally (and singles since yes, he is slow). The thing that changed between AGon's San Diego and Boston incarnations was that his walk rate plummeted. I think the notion was that he was some sort of power and patience god (like a supercharged Mike Napoli) when a lot of the statistical "patience" came from being the only guy of consequence is a low output lineup.

 

Clearly the shoulder injury had some lasting effect also - the on base and power numbers have never really recovered (basically he an above average first baseman now, not an elite one).

 

The shoulder injury may have indirectly affected his walk rate as well. Pitchers are a lot more inclined to throw strikes if you're not a constant threat to park it out of the ballpark. The league knows what shoulder injuries do to power, so pitchers adjust their approach.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Think it's more that his discipline suffered. When he was with the Padres he was swinging at 28-32% of pitches outside of the zone. When he went to the Sox it spiked to 35.5% in 2011 and 37.3% in 2012

[User Name]

Think it's more that his discipline suffered. When he was with the Padres he was swinging at 28-32% of pitches outside of the zone. When he went to the Sox it spiked to 35.5% in 2011 and 37.3% in 2012

 

True. But that may have happened because he was pressing trying to hit home runs post-injury, which comes back to the shoulder problem.

[Spudboy]

Lester to meet with Braves on Thursday.

 

Lol.

[BSN07]

Lester to meet with Braves on Thursday.

 

Lol.

 

I read that earlier and thought it was odd. I don't see the Braves dropping 120M+ on Lester. Maybe they have enough room if they trade J. Upton and get that team to take BJ too. But I doubt it.

[SoxFanForsyth]

True. But that may have happened because he was pressing trying to hit home runs post-injury, which comes back to the shoulder problem.

 

I dunno. If that was the case, I would have expected it to have fallen back down to normal ranges by now and it's stayed in the mid to high 30's ever since he came over.

 

It was also trending in that direction prior to coming over (23.1% in 2009, 31.8% in 2010).