2014 Offseason Thread

[dupree]

I think Betts will be traded. We have all seen reports that say he is untouchable. But, with the growing pains of other untouchables such as Bogey as of most recent, if a trade for a proven pitcher or any position player of elite talent comes available I'd say with the high projected ceiling of Betts he gets a deal done.

 

Vic is a wildcard. If he's healthy he is in RF. Castillo in CF & Cespedes with Nava and Craig on the bench. All will get enough playing time.

 

JBJ needs to stay in AAA all year and be a September call up. Let him learn to hit before he comes to Fenway.

 

Betts could land a Tyron Ross from San Diego or a Cole Hamels from Philly I'd hope the FO pulls the trigger. Also with the small sample size who's to say he won't decline as WMB, Holt, & Bogey when major league pitchers figures him out. His stake is high as of now I'd say roll the dice and move him to get SP.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Betts will be traded. We have all seen reports that say he is untouchable. But, with the growing pains of other untouchables such as Bogey as of most recent, if a trade for a proven pitcher or any position player of elite talent comes available I'd say with the high projected ceiling of Betts he gets a deal done.

 

Vic is a wildcard. If he's healthy he is in RF. Castillo in CF & Cespedes with Nava and Craig on the bench. All will get enough playing time.

 

JBJ needs to stay in AAA all year and be a September call up. Let him learn to hit before he comes to Fenway.

 

Betts could land a Tyron Ross from San Diego or a Cole Hamels from Philly I'd hope the FO pulls the trigger. Also with the small sample size who's to say he won't decline as WMB, Holt, & Bogey when major league pitchers figures him out. His stake is high as of now I'd say roll the dice and move him to get SP.

 

I think trading Betts for Hamels is just about the worst idea possible. There are a lot of pitchers available.

 

Betts is staying. The only guy worth trading him for was Stanton.

[dupree]

I honestly don't see why posters here think that Mookie Betts is the end all be all Red Sox prospect. People are ready to cut his number into the outfield grass, have a day in his honor, and mark his next blast with a historic chair. It's utterly ridiculous.

 

He played in 52 games for the Red Sox last year and had a very nice Hot Streak. And that's all it was is a hot streak. A major deal will never be centered around Mookie Betts unless a team is dumping payroll. A couple years ago when WMB came up and hit like he did people praised him, this year when Holt hit a hot streak people wanted to plug him in anywhere. Both came back to orbit and soo will Mookie.

 

In my opinion he will cool down and go back to the minors the buzz will calm and him will be a filler piece in a low level trade in years to come.

[dupree]

Betts himself won't land Ross or Hamels. Let he clarify. The pieces such as young pitching propects along with Betts will be the thing that gets a deal done.

[Bellhorn04]

I honestly don't see why posters here think that Mookie Betts is the end all be all Red Sox prospect. People are ready to cut his number into the outfield grass, have a day in his honor, and mark his next blast with a historic chair. It's utterly ridiculous.

 

He played in 52 games for the Red Sox last year and had a very nice Hot Streak. And that's all it was is a hot streak. A major deal will never be centered around Mookie Betts unless a team is dumping payroll. A couple years ago when WMB came up and hit like he did people praised him, this year when Holt hit a hot streak people wanted to plug him in anywhere. Both came back to orbit and soo will Mookie.

 

In my opinion he will cool down and go back to the minors the buzz will calm and him will be a filler piece in a low level trade in years to come.

 

You're very much in the minority about Betts. He tore up both AA and AAA before an impressive stint with the big team. His bat speed and his quickness are the real deal. Obviously it's no sure thing yet, but this kid is an exceptional prospect.

 

Trading for Hamels is a double-pay, because you have to lay out $110 million, plus prospects. And we don't know how well he'd transition to the AL. His interleague numbers against AL teams are not good.

Edited November 15, 2014 by Bellhorn04

[jacksonianmarch]

Betts is a tweener prospect. Not sure he can hack it in the infield, not sure he is a CFer. He has skills and probably ends up a good major leaguer, but he isn't a transcendent player. So, trying to get an ace, you'll need more than him

[Dojji]

The only reason anyone isn't sure about Betts in center is because they might want to use him on the infield. If they commit to him in centerfield he has more than enough range and stick to make it as a CF.

 

But if Pedroia continues to decline, the problem might be solved for us and in that case, I expect Betts to be a sufficient 2B which is his natural position.

 

He has more than enough power potential to put up double digit homer figures in the middle of his career with a bit of luck Over a full season his debut performance would have been worth 15 HR's over 600 AB's. In either of his two positions that's plenty of offense. If we do put him at second due to decline or injury from Pedroia, that level of offense would make Betts an All-Star even if he isn't a gold glover.

Edited November 15, 2014 by Dojji

[SoxFanForsyth]

Betts is a tweener prospect. Not sure he can hack it in the infield, not sure he is a CFer. He has skills and probably ends up a good major leaguer, but he isn't a transcendent player. So, trying to get an ace, you'll need more than him

 

lol wut.

 

Betts lands virtually any player available. He would be an excessive overpay for guys like Cueto, Shark, Zimmerman, etc.

 

A deal of Strasburg for Betts straight up actually makes sense.

 

This is complete Yankees jealousy of the Sox prospects.

[Dojji]

No kidding. Worst case scenario defensively is Betts in right field, and if his offensive level is anywhere NEAR what it's shown to be, to say nothing of his potential to improve, he's a star level right fielder. That's a very weak position leaguewide right now, similar with third base -- a position people are used to having a power hitter in but the actual power hitters playing it aren't easy to find anymore.

 

And that's the worst case scenario. if he can hack it at center, even better, and if he can hit at his level and survive at second base, he's a pure stud.

[sk7326]

I honestly don't see why posters here think that Mookie Betts is the end all be all Red Sox prospect. People are ready to cut his number into the outfield grass, have a day in his honor, and mark his next blast with a historic chair. It's utterly ridiculous.

 

He played in 52 games for the Red Sox last year and had a very nice Hot Streak. And that's all it was is a hot streak. A major deal will never be centered around Mookie Betts unless a team is dumping payroll. A couple years ago when WMB came up and hit like he did people praised him, this year when Holt hit a hot streak people wanted to plug him in anywhere. Both came back to orbit and soo will Mookie.

 

In my opinion he will cool down and go back to the minors the buzz will calm and him will be a filler piece in a low level trade in years to come.

 

His 52 game sample was the culmination of his Age 21 season. Most of his buddies haven't left SINGLE A. Guys who have demonstrated this stuff at his age are the sort of guys you make org bets on and don't look back.

[sk7326]

I think Betts will be traded. We have all seen reports that say he is untouchable. But, with the growing pains of other untouchables such as Bogey as of most recent, if a trade for a proven pitcher or any position player of elite talent comes available I'd say with the high projected ceiling of Betts he gets a deal done.

 

Vic is a wildcard. If he's healthy he is in RF. Castillo in CF & Cespedes with Nava and Craig on the bench. All will get enough playing time.

 

JBJ needs to stay in AAA all year and be a September call up. Let him learn to hit before he comes to Fenway.

 

Betts could land a Tyron Ross from San Diego or a Cole Hamels from Philly I'd hope the FO pulls the trigger. Also with the small sample size who's to say he won't decline as WMB, Holt, & Bogey when major league pitchers figures him out. His stake is high as of now I'd say roll the dice and move him to get SP.

 

If Betts can get a premium asset, you have to think about it. But he and Bogaerts are pretty premium assets. The latter was probably overrated entering last season based on looking like he belonged in his October tour - and is decidedly underrated now. (not by the industry, but by the Nationdom)

[SoxFanForsyth]

Just to be clear on Mookie:

 

- He posted a 1.9 fWar last year. For offensive players, that would have been 5th on the Yankees (min 150 PA). And he played 52 games.

 

- His fWar of 1.9 would translate to a 5.7 win player over 156 games. It was a small sample, but his peripherals were all in line with what he did in the minors with an appropriate adjustment (AAA k rate: 14.2%, MLB 14.6%; AAA BB% 12.3%, MLB BB% 9.6%; AAA BABIP .380, MLB BABIP .327). So he didn't flash in the pan with a .400 BABIP (a la Jesus Montero in 2011) and make his numbers look artificially inflated.

 

- His DEF rating was at 0.6 but you can certainly expect that to increase significantly given that he was learning an entirely new position at the MLB level last year.

 

So explain, please Jacko, how Mookie is a 'tweener' prospect because, frankly, that's as laughable as it gets. A guy who played for 52 games at a 6 win pace is a 'tweener'.

 

And oh by the way, Mookie for Hamels is one of the worst trade ideas I have ever heard on this site. And that's saying a lot.

[jacksonianmarch]

He had a 189AB sample size. So let's not nut on yourself just yet. The reason why I say he is a tweener because he's between positions. I don't think he becomes a great defensive CFer and I also don't know if he will hit for enough power to be a top notch corner OFer. I know he has hit 16 and 15HR in his last 2 seasons, but he doesn't really have the frame to blossom into a 30+HR hitter. It also looks like the sox are wary about him as a 3b, aren't using him as a SS and have an entrenched 2b. So, for the sox, he's a tweener.

[Dojji]

You've got a 21 year old kid who you just admitted had demostrated 15 HR ability at second base or centerfield.

 

Second base.

 

Or centerfield.

 

And you're picking nits because the team is still deciding which of those two high leverage up the middle defensive positions he should be played at more often?

 

If he was a Yankee, you wouldn't call that "tweener" you'd call that "versatility" and you'd be right.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think Betts will be traded. We have all seen reports that say he is untouchable. But, with the growing pains of other untouchables such as Bogey as of most recent, if a trade for a proven pitcher or any position player of elite talent comes available I'd say with the high projected ceiling of Betts he gets a deal done.

 

Vic is a wildcard. If he's healthy he is in RF. Castillo in CF & Cespedes with Nava and Craig on the bench. All will get enough playing time.

 

JBJ needs to stay in AAA all year and be a September call up. Let him learn to hit before he comes to Fenway.

 

Betts could land a Tyron Ross from San Diego or a Cole Hamels from Philly I'd hope the FO pulls the trigger. Also with the small sample size who's to say he won't decline as WMB, Holt, & Bogey when major league pitchers figures him out. His stake is high as of now I'd say roll the dice and move him to get SP.

 

Look at BABIP.

 

Holt: when he was hitting .300 (through 8/5) his BABIP was .370.

Middlebrooks BABIP in 2012 was .335 (he's a slow guy and his k:bb ratio of 6:1 was always worrisome. His peripherals were always terrifying)

Bogaerts BABIP was near .400 to start the year before he fell off the cliff.

 

All of Betts peripherals are in line

 

That

[jacksonianmarch]

If he was a Yankee, you wouldn't call that "tweener" you'd call that "versatility" and you'd be right.

 

There is definitely versatility. It definitely helps his case. But I called him a tweener because of his position. I think he ends up as a Prado type player, which is an excellent player, but still a tweener

[SoxFanForsyth]

He had a 189AB sample size. So let's not nut on yourself just yet. The reason why I say he is a tweener because he's between positions. I don't think he becomes a great defensive CFer and I also don't know if he will hit for enough power to be a top notch corner OFer. I know he has hit 16 and 15HR in his last 2 seasons, but he doesn't really have the frame to blossom into a 30+HR hitter. It also looks like the sox are wary about him as a 3b, aren't using him as a SS and have an entrenched 2b. So, for the sox, he's a tweener.

 

Oh that's how that works? Huh. If you don't play every position, you're a tweener. Or if you've got an MLB player locked up in your position, you're a tweener.

 

That's a really strong case you have Jacko. Really strong.

 

This might be your dumbest argument I've ever heard. I've seen you grasp at straws before but this? This takes it to a new level.

[sk7326]

Could be a Prado or a Zobrist. The tweener indicates he can't play a position when it has been more that his athletic ability has profiled in a few places and the trick is to figure out what makes the most sense. (or combination of positions therein)

[Dojji]

There is definitely versatility. It definitely helps his case. But I called him a tweener because of his position. I think he ends up as a Prado type player, which is an excellent player, but still a tweener

Prado never spent a single second in centerfield.

[SoxFanForsyth]

'Not sure he can hack it in the infield'

 

Rated as a strong defensive 2B by all the reports I've ever read (which is a lot).

 

'Not sure if he can cut it in the OF'

 

Learned CF on the fly, posted a -0.1 UZR there. Basically average in his first ever exposure.

[BSN07]

You guys, him saying Betts is a Prado type is a compliment. Prado is a good hitter who moves around where teams need him to play defensively and does a good job wherever he plays. How is this bad? You guys are jumpin jacko because he's not claiming Mookie is the 2nd coming of Christ.

 

While most of us hope Betts ceiling goes higher than Prado's, but if he ends up as good but not better than Prado the Sox still have a very productive ball player.

[SoxFanForsyth]

It's almost as if a player who plays multiple up the middle positions while having the ability to provide a 130ish wrc+ and strong base running is a bad prospect to Jackson.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You guys, him saying Betts is a Prado type is a compliment. Prado is a good hitter who moves around where teams need him to play defensively and does a good job wherever he plays. How is this bad? You guys are jumpin jacko because he's not claiming Mookie is the 2nd coming of Christ.

 

While most of us hope Betts ceiling goes higher than Prado's, but if he ends up as good but not better than Prado the Sox still have a very productive ball player.

 

He did say that we would need more than Betts to get an ace, which is laughable.

[User Name]

There is definitely versatility. It definitely helps his case. But I called him a tweener because of his position. I think he ends up as a Prado type player, which is an excellent player, but still a tweener

 

The problem (as usual) is your lack of consistency Jacko. I don't mean this as a personal attack, but rather as clarification for the surprised responses of some of the other posters.

 

You have used the term "tweener" in the past to refer to a player who doesn't particularly excel in several areas of his game, specifically Carl Crawford, who you referred to as a "tweener" because of his average offensive skillset highlighted by blazing speed. Choose a definition and stick to it.

Edited November 15, 2014 by User Name?

[User Name]

He did say that we would need more than Betts to get an ace, which is laughable.

 

it isn't, because Betts by himself wouldn't land a #1 right now. He has less than 200 AB's of MLB experience. Let's reel back the hyperbole a bit.

[sk7326]

He did say that we would need more than Betts to get an ace, which is laughable.

 

I don't know - I do think it would take more than Betts, but that says more about what it takes to get quality, controllable pitching than anything.

[User Name]

I think Betts will be traded. We have all seen reports that say he is untouchable. But, with the growing pains of other untouchables such as Bogey as of most recent, if a trade for a proven pitcher or any position player of elite talent comes available I'd say with the high projected ceiling of Betts he gets a deal done.

 

Vic is a wildcard. If he's healthy he is in RF. Castillo in CF & Cespedes with Nava and Craig on the bench. All will get enough playing time.

 

JBJ needs to stay in AAA all year and be a September call up. Let him learn to hit before he comes to Fenway.

 

Betts could land a Tyron Ross from San Diego or a Cole Hamels from Philly I'd hope the FO pulls the trigger. Also with the small sample size who's to say he won't decline as WMB, Holt, & Bogey when major league pitchers figures him out. His stake is high as of now I'd say roll the dice and move him to get SP.

 

This argument is silly. Bogaerts and Betts are at an age where most players are just arriving at AA. Holding your own, let alone excelling at the MLB level portends to great things in the future. Saying the league has or will figure them out when they should be playing at High-A is pretty damn ridiculous..

[SoxFanForsyth]

it isn't, because Betts by himself wouldn't land a #1 right now. He has less than 200 AB's of MLB experience. Let's reel back the hyperbole a bit.

 

Betts, by himself, would land Strasburg, would be an overpay for Cueto, Zimmerman, Samadzija, or Hamels. He would land Cashner or Tyson Ross alone.

 

The only pitchers he wouldn't land (Sale, etc) aren't available.

[User Name]

Betts, by himself, would land Strasburg, would be an overpay for Cueto, Zimmerman, Samadzija, or Hamels. He would land Cashner or Tyson Ross alone.

 

The only pitchers he wouldn't land (Sale, etc) aren't available.

 

I understand your excitement for Betts, but saying he'd be worth Strasburg straight up borders on insanity. I'd give you Zimmerman or Samardzija because of control and questionable transition to the AL, but two years of Strasburg ain't going to happen. Hamels is owed big money, but he's controlled for a couple more years at what is essentially market value, and Cueto had a monster 2014.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I understand your excitement for Betts, but saying he'd be worth Strasburg straight up borders on insanity. I'd give you Zimmerman or Samardzija because of control and questionable transition to the AL, but two years of Strasburg ain't going to happen. Hamels is owed big money, but he's controlled for a couple more years at what is essentially market value, and Cueto had a monster 2014.

 

Cueto, Zimmerman, Shark all have 1 year left. Hamels is essentially signing a guy to a 5/110 deal. Betts, a potential star, the #11 BA midseason prospect (per BA if he was eligible) is an enormous overpay for any of those.

 

If you don't think that the Nats would trade 2 years of Stras for 6 years of Betts, you're out of your mind crazy. They have an enormous hole at 2B, Betts was already a 2 win player in 1/3 of a season, is projected to be a 4-4.5 win player next season, and is cost controlled.

 

I'm not sure you understand how valuable a 22 year old is with that kind of talent being shown at age 21.