2014 Offseason Thread

[BSN07]

http://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/627718

 

Says Sox willing to go 6 years for Lester

[SoxFanForsyth]

http://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/627718

 

Says Sox willing to go 6 years for Lester

 

Yeah, this came out last night per Gammons, but it's excellent news.

 

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=bostonred-sox&city=boston&i=TWT&id=41068&w=1ekks

 

!!!!!!!!!!!

[BSN07]

Yeah, this came out last night per Gammons, but it's excellent news.

 

Damn now you mention it I remember seeing that lol

 

I think Lester is the first big domino to fall this off season. No matter where he signs. I still think it's a 2 horse race between Chc and Boston. Seattle as my long shot dark horse.

[Bellhorn04]

They crippled an already thin offense this season and now don't have a middle of the order bat or an Ace going into 2015. The Sox would have both and only gave up 11 games of Lester. How would that not be fleecing the A's?

 

The A's are a small market team who had a chance to go for a title. It failed dismally, but I don't think it was a bad move. It's not like they gave up a couple of top prospects. They gave up a guy who they only had under contract for 1.3 years, and a guy who nobody seems very sure how good he actually is.

[Spudboy]

Spud - I like where your head is at.

 

Allen Craig played 246 G at 3B in the minors so it's not entirely new to him. Though he did post a .927 fielding percentage there, so he would need to start working on his defense now. Love this option. I also agree with you, he is a near lock for a bounce back this year. Offseasons don't get nearly enough credit for players success and when you have your offseason cut down because of a foot injury plus a deep October run (like Craig in 2013), it's not hard to expect some struggles the following year. A full, healthy offseason should get him to be the hitter he was with the Cardinals. His defense, though, is worrisome.

 

Mookie, to me, is your starting RF. I love Victorino, I really do, but to count on him for anything more than 75-85 games is a fools errand. For that reason, I keep Mookie in the outfield. And to be honest, I trade Vic.

 

I like Holt, but not as an everyday player. He may be the best backup super sub in the game. A Ben Zobrist type player that doesn't play everyday. I think that's the position that he thrives.

 

I still really like Panda. Think Fenway would be a great park for him. Sox need that LH stick. And his defense is underrated. We need solid defense at 3B while Bogaerts is still learning at SS, which steers me toward an established 3B over a lottery ticket, even if those lottery tickets could be a great player.

 

I see all of your points and agree with a lot of what you have said. I did not consider the XB suspect defense as a factor in integrating what would be essentially an inexperienced rookie 3rd baseman. Still, I think that Graig could do the job. I was not aware that he had played so much 3rd base in the minors. I did not do any research on my ideas. I'm just bored and thinking of some different ideas. I'm guessing that his low fielding percentage was when he was still raw in his fielding skill set. I'd be very worried if his errors were mostly from throwing. But in any case he does seem to be a decent 1st baseman so he has that going for him. The skills are somewhat similar with 3rd baseman doing much more throwing. I say that it is worth the shot. Especially with the redundancy the Sox enjoy with Holt being available.

 

I also think that you may be underestimating Holt but I concede that either of us can be wrong here because we would only be able to speculate at this point.

 

I agree that Victorino should not be counted on for very much. He has had back surgery. I don't care how well his rehab is going or what he and Farrell say. It would be great to see him traded but until he's healthy and demonstrates that he can play well his value is low. Maybe just a second or third player in a deal at best.

 

I really don't care where Betts plays as long as he is a starting player on this team. It is possible that he will have a Sophomore slump but I bet he ends up hitting at least .280/.340 with about 12-15 hr. Just a guess.

 

I don't want Panda at 6 years or anywhere near 100 mil.. I think he is a mid tier talent whose value has peaked at just the right time. Otherwise he is not worth much more than 12-13 mil. I can see signing him for 4/60 if I am the Sox. I would not go 5/75 or 6/90. That is insane money for a player of his talent and girth.

 

I know that I am just bitching about how much these guys make. I always do! But here it is a little different. I don't want the Sox to overpay for 3rd base. Especially with Cechini knocking on the door. He may not be a sure thing but he sure looks like he has the tools to become very good.

 

I do not want the Sox to spend more than they need to just to have an average type talent on the team. The market has devolved to the point where even average players are getting absurd money. One can argue that Sandoval is above average, I guess. But not by much if at all.

 

From a purely business perspective I believe that it is wise to use current assets to make money rather than spending too much money on something that the business does not need from an external source.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Red Sox are "all in" on Pablo Sandoval and are currently "making a big push to sign him".

 

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/11861086/boston-red-sox-making-big-push-sign-free-agent-pablo-sandoval

 

I'm all for signing Panda or HanRam. Don't care which one it is. Just give me one of them. Panda seems like a better fit because he's a true 3B and a LHH, so hopefully this comes to fruition soon.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, we're starting to hear some noise now at least.

[sk7326]

Yup. Everyone always says 'players never get traded and then sign with the team that traded them' I say look at Cliff Lee. Theyre right. Players generally don't don't do that. But players also don't value comfort over dollars, either, like Lee and Lester.

 

I'm not 'playing this card', if you will, and I don't think that Lester feels that he owes anything to Boston, but the fact that the Sox were the team that helped him through easily the toughest time of his life (battling cancer) certainly plays with his heart strings, as it would for anyone, and as it should. For that, I think he has a special relationship with the Sox that goes beyond dollars and years. Tack on the familiarity and comfort for he and his family, and I think he's the Sox opening day starter.

 

Players will sign where they are happy. The Phillies got Cliff Lee back as noted - but they also paid top dollar for him. Money still works quite well.

[sk7326]

The A's are a small market team who had a chance to go for a title. It failed dismally, but I don't think it was a bad move. It's not like they gave up a couple of top prospects. They gave up a guy who they only had under contract for 1.3 years, and a guy who nobody seems very sure how good he actually is.

 

Really the A's gave up one player who might have been a cornerstone piece (Addison Russell) for seriously upgrading their rotation. Cespedes' loss hurt, but not as much as Brandon Moss forgetting how to hit. Indeed if Bob Melvin (a generally very good manager) had moved a facial muscle or two while Lester was melting down in the playoff game (not a referendum on Lester - it happens to the best of us), nobody is having this conversation or narrative.

[Palodios]

In other news, the Nationals and Cubs are discussing Zimmerman. We're talking a guy hovering around 200 IP, a 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP the last three years. The guy is good. Wonder what it would take ?

[sk7326]

In other news, the Nationals and Cubs are discussing Zimmerman. We're talking a guy hovering around 200 IP, a 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP the last three years. The guy is good. Wonder what it would take ?

 

Quite a bit. The Cubs are absolutely loaded with bats and shortstops. The Nationals have a job opening in the middle of the infield too. Hell, the Cubs could dangle Starlin Castro if the Nationals are into that sort of thing.

[GomesBeard]

Re: Lester, good pitch by Pete Abraham in the Globe - http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/11/11/red-sox-plan-should-sign-jon-lester/Ysu4vTiAHxsYEmQoLJiPaN/story.html

[jacksonianmarch]

Sox are "all in" for Sandoval. He wants 6 years. Giving guaranteed money for six seasons to this fat pig will bite you in the ass. We know, we got good production for 3-4 yrs out of our fat ass before he fell apart. This time, though, Pablo's production has plateaued and is heading down. This is a disaster waiting to happen

[redsoxfan3]

Sox are "all in" for Sandoval. He wants 6 years. Giving guaranteed money for six seasons to this fat pig will bite you in the ass. We know, we got good production for 3-4 yrs out of our fat ass before he fell apart. This time, though, Pablo's production has plateaued and is heading down. This is a disaster waiting to happen

 

Everyone keeps factoring in his weight, which I do agree might factor into his health and/or production within the next six years. The main reason the Red Sox are signing this guy is to play 3B. If his defense becomes a big problem and to keep him healthy, there is always the option of moving him to 1B or be the next DH in Boston after Big Papi retires.

 

I'm not really sure how Sandoval can be compared to Sabathia. Sandoval is a 3B and Sabathia is a SP. Sandoval has the option to potentially be moved to 1B or to DH. My point is that Sandoval could still be productive offensively by changing positions. I completely disagree with you about his production plateauing and getting worse. His production has been pretty consistent from 2009 to 2014, with 2009 and 2011 being his best two seasons. He is only 28 years old, so I don't see how you can say his production will get worse, at least not offensively. I can see from a defensive standpoint due to his weight, but that could possibly be solved by a change to 1B or DH down the road.

 

I know you Yankees fans are used to signing guys to large contracts in terms of dollar amount and length and having those contracts become a disaster, but not every contract will be like that.

[sk7326]

Sox are "all in" for Sandoval. He wants 6 years. Giving guaranteed money for six seasons to this fat pig will bite you in the ass. We know, we got good production for 3-4 yrs out of our fat ass before he fell apart. This time, though, Pablo's production has plateaued and is heading down. This is a disaster waiting to happen

 

6 years would be tough. At the same time, he is the youngest of the premium free agents - the only one which you can really still project a year or two of improvement. He is a low strikeout guy - which might have more value now than it did in the more offense-heavy past, and he is a solid 3B. He is probably the safest investment of the third basemen - or at least the least likely to be a true albatross.

 

The Sabathia comparison is spectacularly unfair to CC, whose fat ass was one of the most reliable starters in the league for 12 seasons. It's not the favorite body type on earth, but CC got a ton of mileage out of it. It is tempting to talk about his portliness, but would be intellectually dishonest without noting that the fact he had been a 180+ inning starter from the time he was 20 has as much to do with his wearing down.

 

Sandoval's body seems problematic - but it has not actually hurt his production too much, improving the body is one of those low hanging fruit things that could get some bonafide improvement - which is not a common thing to get from a 6-year free agent.

[Palodios]

Sandoval weight issues are a big deal here.

 

David Ortiz was overweight for a while there, but he was motivated by the yearly arbitration and qualifying offers. He worked hard to get into much better shape, and it saved his career, and potentially put himself into HOF conversation. I would argue that his year-to-year contract situation made him a better player.

 

Giving Pablo 6/100 means he'll be fat and happy for the rest of his career. I don't want anything to do with that.

[MNSoxChief102]

Sandoval weight issues are a big deal here.

 

David Ortiz was overweight for a while there, but he was motivated by the yearly arbitration and qualifying offers. He worked hard to get into much better shape, and it saved his career, and potentially put himself into HOF conversation. I would argue that his year-to-year contract situation made him a better player.

 

Giving Pablo 6/100 means he'll be fat and happy for the rest of his career. I don't want anything to do with that.

 

I'm ok with giving him 6/100 for many of the reasons others have posted already... weight issues aside, he's still relatively young (28), plays a premium position of need for the Sox, plays it well defensively, hits for power and average consistently, ability to switch hit, and can easily transition to DH/1B once Papi is done.

 

And it's not as if the 6/100 contract would be that large of an albatross for the Sox to overcome if he ended up becoming a dud for us in 3-4 years either, considering the resources ownership has at their disposal. They can easily afford him and not worry if things don't go as planned.

[sk7326]

Sandoval weight issues are a big deal here.

 

David Ortiz was overweight for a while there, but he was motivated by the yearly arbitration and qualifying offers. He worked hard to get into much better shape, and it saved his career, and potentially put himself into HOF conversation. I would argue that his year-to-year contract situation made him a better player.

 

Giving Pablo 6/100 means he'll be fat and happy for the rest of his career. I don't want anything to do with that.

 

Or not - depends on the guy. I don't love the idea - but Cecchini's plateauing at AAA introduces some uncertainty into his ability to be a starter, enough that a quality veteran option (and not a bridge) is sensible. I am conflicted, but I like Sandoval.

[Spudboy]

Or not - depends on the guy. I don't love the idea - but Cecchini's plateauing at AAA introduces some uncertainty into his ability to be a starter, enough that a quality veteran option (and not a bridge) is sensible. I am conflicted, but I like Sandoval.

 

How has Cechini "Plateaued"?

[sk7326]

How has Cechini "Plateaued"?

 

.712 OPS last year in full go at Pawtucket ... did not crush the level like he did at AA. I haven't quit on him - but I don't see a need to tattoo his spot in the lineup either.

[Spudboy]

.712 OPS last year in full go at Pawtucket ... did not crush the level like he did at AA. I haven't quit on him - but I don't see a need to tattoo his spot in the lineup either.

 

I'm not tattooing him anywhere.

 

He had 400 ab in Pawtucket in 2014 and a total of about 640 above High A ball. Yes, his numbers are a little down from Portland. But not substantially. He's just progressing at a decent , not raking pace.

 

He's still young and learning.

[jacksonianmarch]

Everyone keeps factoring in his weight, which I do agree might factor into his health and/or production within the next six years. The main reason the Red Sox are signing this guy is to play 3B. If his defense becomes a big problem and to keep him healthy, there is always the option of moving him to 1B or be the next DH in Boston after Big Papi retires.

 

I'm not really sure how Sandoval can be compared to Sabathia. Sandoval is a 3B and Sabathia is a SP. Sandoval has the option to potentially be moved to 1B or to DH. My point is that Sandoval could still be productive offensively by changing positions. I completely disagree with you about his production plateauing and getting worse. His production has been pretty consistent from 2009 to 2014, with 2009 and 2011 being his best two seasons. He is only 28 years old, so I don't see how you can say his production will get worse, at least not offensively. I can see from a defensive standpoint due to his weight, but that could possibly be solved by a change to 1B or DH down the road.

 

I know you Yankees fans are used to signing guys to large contracts in terms of dollar amount and length and having those contracts become a disaster, but not every contract will be like that.

 

So you're paying $100 million to a 3B so they can play third base, right? His offensive numbers don't fly at 1b. The reason why he's going to get $100 mil is because he is a 3b. Now, his offensive production hasn't declined? Are you on meth? OPS's over the last 4 yrs...

 

2011- .909

2012- .789

2013- .758

2014- .739

 

So if his offensive prowess is declining, then his defense must be amazing, right? Well, not really. Last 3 seasons, his UZR/150 are 1.4, -6.3, and 3.5. So, are you really looking to pay $100 million to a guy who has seen his OPS slide into the low .700s who plays average defense and has weight issues? The only reason why this guy isn't staring 3yrs and $30 mil in the face is because he's killed it in the playoffs. He has also killed it at the buffet table and always comes to camp fat. It gets harder to work the weight off after getting closer to 30. But he wont have to worry, he'll have a panda sized paycheck coming in. I hope to high heaven you get this guy. Because come 2016, you'll be figuring out a way to get him off your roster

[redsoxfan3]

So you're paying $100 million to a 3B so they can play third base, right? His offensive numbers don't fly at 1b. The reason why he's going to get $100 mil is because he is a 3b. Now, his offensive production hasn't declined? Are you on meth? OPS's over the last 4 yrs...

 

2011- .909

2012- .789

2013- .758

2014- .739

 

So if his offensive prowess is declining, then his defense must be amazing, right? Well, not really. Last 3 seasons, his UZR/150 are 1.4, -6.3, and 3.5. So, are you really looking to pay $100 million to a guy who has seen his OPS slide into the low .700s who plays average defense and has weight issues? The only reason why this guy isn't staring 3yrs and $30 mil in the face is because he's killed it in the playoffs. He has also killed it at the buffet table and always comes to camp fat. It gets harder to work the weight off after getting closer to 30. But he wont have to worry, he'll have a panda sized paycheck coming in. I hope to high heaven you get this guy. Because come 2016, you'll be figuring out a way to get him off your roster

 

That is correct. How do his numbers not "fly" at 1B? His .OPS at .739 would've been 15th in all of baseball and ahead of Teixeira since you only seem to care about .OPS. You are looking at one baseball statistic as your valuation of his numbers declining offensively. His oWAR was better in 2014 than in 2012. He had a better batting average in 2014 than he did in 2013. He had more home runs in 2014 than he did in 2012 and 2013. .OPS is not all inclusive in determining if his offensive production is deteriorating.

 

If your reading comprehension was as strong as your Yankees bias, you would have realized that I clearly said that I believe Sandoval would be moved to 1B or DH if his defensive production declines. I never once said that the Red Sox were going to sign him because his defense is "amazing." I am looking to pay a guy $100 million who is well established as one of the better hitters in the postseason, has decent defense, and has an above average bat. Not because he is a superstar talent, but because the Red Sox need at LHH 3B, who is an above average player and will be able to add power to the lineup offensively. I never once said that he will not be overpaid, because he will be. In the market today, you have to outbid the other heavy hitters. You should know that, your Yankees try to do that every year and still suck.

 

The Red Sox are potentially two front-end starters and a 3B away from another deep run in the playoffs. The front office knows the importance of fielding a competitive team. You might have to overpay for FA's, but that will mean we can keep our prospects. I know, it is hard for a Yankees fan to realize the significance of prospects.

Edited November 12, 2014 by redsoxfan3

[Spudboy]

So you're paying $100 million to a 3B so they can play third base, right? His offensive numbers don't fly at 1b. The reason why he's going to get $100 mil is because he is a 3b. Now, his offensive production hasn't declined? Are you on meth? OPS's over the last 4 yrs...

 

2011- .909

2012- .789

2013- .758

2014- .739

 

So if his offensive prowess is declining, then his defense must be amazing, right? Well, not really. Last 3 seasons, his UZR/150 are 1.4, -6.3, and 3.5. So, are you really looking to pay $100 million to a guy who has seen his OPS slide into the low .700s who plays average defense and has weight issues? The only reason why this guy isn't staring 3yrs and $30 mil in the face is because he's killed it in the playoffs. He has also killed it at the buffet table and always comes to camp fat. It gets harder to work the weight off after getting closer to 30. But he wont have to worry, he'll have a panda sized paycheck coming in. I hope to high heaven you get this guy. Because come 2016, you'll be figuring out a way to get him off your roster

 

 

This is exactly as I see it. But the grass is always greener or something like that. People get all worked up in the emotion and hope of a player from another team coming to their team and being all-world.

 

A similar thing happened when Cespedes came to Boston.

[Palodios]

How do his numbers not "fly" at 1B? His .OPS at .739 would've been 15th in all of baseball....

 

You don't pay 15-20 million dollars a year on a player who is 15th at his position.

[seabeachfred]

Sox are "all in" for Sandoval. He wants 6 years. Giving guaranteed money for six seasons to this fat pig will bite you in the ass. We know, we got good production for 3-4 yrs out of our fat ass before he fell apart. This time, though, Pablo's production has plateaued and is heading down. This is a disaster waiting to happen

 

The Red Sox are about to make one of their biggest blunders in a large series of blunders over the past season. I'm convinced as you are that six years and $120 million for Sandoval is a recipe for disaster---maybe not the first or second year but by the third and fourth the waste of such money will be there for all to see. However, someone high up in the organization wants to make a big splash, my guess being the rotten and hateful Larry Lucchino. We need g ood starting pitching.....we can get by at third with a combo of players who will get the job done. We cannot win without two solid starting pitchers and why Cherington is so blind to this can only fortify my belief that this guy can't fart and chew gum at the same time. Woe to us if this happens.

[BSN07]

The Red Sox are about to make one of their biggest blunders in a large series of blunders over the past season. I'm convinced as you are that six years and $120 million for Sandoval is a recipe for disaster---maybe not the first or second year but by the third and fourth the waste of such money will be there for all to see. However, someone high up in the organization wants to make a big splash, my guess being the rotten and hateful Larry Lucchino. We need g ood starting pitching.....we can get by at third with a combo of players who will get the job done. We cannot win without two solid starting pitchers and why Cherington is so blind to this can only fortify my belief that this guy can't fart and chew gum at the same time. Woe to us if this happens.

 

You seriously think Panda is the only player Cherries is working on signing? lmfao I guess I missed the interview where he said SP wasn't really on his to do list lol

 

I'm more for Headley but if the Sox sign Panda and he declines half way through the deal it's not really an issue. By that time the Sox will have plenty of financial flexibility and would be able to replace him or reduce his role.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Bring me Alex Avila. He's available via trade.

 

His stock is way down right now. Bring him in, let him play 50-60 games, mostly vs RHP while Vazquez plays 110. He's a very good defensive catcher. His offense isn't very good, particularly vs LHP, but his defense is excellent and you pair him with Vazquez, that's a very strong defensive C.

 

Probably can be had for next to nothing given that he's a FA after this season and they've publicly made him available.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Red Sox are about to make one of their biggest blunders in a large series of blunders over the past season. I'm convinced as you are that six years and $120 million for Sandoval is a recipe for disaster---maybe not the first or second year but by the third and fourth the waste of such money will be there for all to see. However, someone high up in the organization wants to make a big splash, my guess being the rotten and hateful Larry Lucchino. We need g ood starting pitching.....we can get by at third with a combo of players who will get the job done. We cannot win without two solid starting pitchers and why Cherington is so blind to this can only fortify my belief that this guy can't fart and chew gum at the same time. Woe to us if this happens.

 

Ervin Santana wanted 100mm last year. What'd he get? A 1 year deal at around $13mm.

 

Just because a player WANTS something doesn't mean he'll get it. 6/120 will never, ever happen for Panda. He's probably getting an offer from the Giants of around 5/85 or 5/90 and the Sox will offer him 5/95 or 5/100.

 

An overpay? Yes. But the supply of good 3B is extremely dry, so the demand increases significantly. This doesn't prohibit the Red Sox from signing pitchers by any means. In fact, the Sox priorities were "two SP and a LHH 3B".

 

Panda is visiting Boston next week. Know what else is happening next week? The Red Sox ownership group is meeting with Lester's agent. Not Cherrington. The owners. I literally cannot remember the last time an ownership group met with a player for any team. It just doesn't happen.

 

The Lester deal AND the Panda deal get done soon. And the Sox will also be trading for an arm soon too (I am still projecting Samardzija in a deal around Marrero).

[Palodios]

The problem with Panda's price is that the Giants have a habit of paying their own guys market value. I see them going up to 5/60 to 6/80, and I would imagine the Red Sox will have to blow those numbers out of the water to make him leave such a great situation in San Fran.