2014 Offseason Thread

[Dojji]

I'm nervous about the prospect of putting two low range players on the left side. X isn't the rangiest shortstop and that range will go down a bit as he fills out. Sandoval is a good player, but a definite slug. I can see a lot of baseballs getting through the infield over there.

 

Given the choice I'd much prefer Hanley. he isn't crazy athletic anymore from what I've heard, but he's more athletic than Panda, and we can't cover for our 3B because we're also trying to work in an offensive player at short.

[BSN07]

I'm nervous about the prospect of putting two low range players on the left side. X isn't the rangiest shortstop and that range will go down a bit as he fills out. Sandoval is a good player, but a definite slug. I can see a lot of baseballs getting through the infield over there.

 

Given the choice I'd much prefer Hanley. he isn't crazy athletic anymore from what I've heard, but he's more athletic than Panda, and we can't cover for our 3B because we're also trying to work in an offensive player at short.

 

I gotta think Hanley is plan C at 3B behind Panda and Headley. But I wouldn't mind him at 3B next year as long as his contract isn't absurd.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Hearing the Sox are down to HanRam and Sandoval, and the decision is purely financial.

 

 

Translates to Marino_Pepen: WARNING: Hanley Ramirez joins Pablo Sandoval #RedSox possible options to play 3B. The decision is purely financial. #MLB

[SoxFanForsyth]

I gotta think Hanley is plan C at 3B behind Panda and Headley. But I wouldn't mind him at 3B next year as long as his contract isn't absurd.

 

Would be nice to have him available to slide to SS if Bogaerts gets hurt.

 

If we got HanRam we would be very deep.

 

Bogaerts gets hurt? Hanley to SS, Cecchini to 3b

Pedey hurt? Betts to 2B.

Nap hurt, Craig to 1B.

 

The infield depth would be phenomenal. That's something we would miss out on w Panda.

 

I love Panda but give me HanRam

[Palodios]

I just can't stop thinking that maybe Chase Headley will be the next Adrian Beltre type signing. He has 30 HR potential, but was stuck in bad lineups the last two years, and in a big time pitcher park most of his career. He has less power, and more OBP, but he's got Beltre defense at 3B, and can be had for relatively cheap, without draft pick compensation.

 

Pablo also played in a pitcher park, but the defense isn't remotely close to as good, and will cost significantly more money and talent for an extra career .050 OPS .

[sk7326]

I just can't stop thinking that maybe Chase Headley will be the next Adrian Beltre type signing. He has 30 HR potential, but was stuck in bad lineups the last two years, and in a big time pitcher park most of his career. He has less power, and more OBP, but he's got Beltre defense at 3B, and can be had for relatively cheap, without draft pick compensation.

 

Pablo also played in a pitcher park, but the defense isn't remotely close to as good, and will cost significantly more money and talent for an extra career .050 OPS .

 

Headley is interesting, good on-base skills although the 30 HR season he had in San Diego looks like an outlier. That said, given where the Rangers are - there is actually some reason to knock on their door and see what it would take to land the actual Adrian Beltre. He is not a young man - but still pretty good and only 1 or 2 years left.

 

Headley will be 31 by May of next season. Sandoval does not turn 29 until next August. I think that age difference (and the implied possibility that the younger guy still has some improvement left) is one of the drivers of the market difference.

 

The three third base contestants do sort of line up neatly:

 

Ramirez: Pro: Best bat Con: Most expensive, riskiest glove

Sandoval: Pro: Good bat - age Con: Expensive, ok glove

Headley: Pro: Best glove, cheapest, Con: Worst bat

[Palodios]

Headley is interesting, good on-base skills although the 30 HR season he had in San Diego looks like an outlier. That said, given where the Rangers are - there is actually some reason to knock on their door and see what it would take to land the actual Adrian Beltre. He is not a young man - but still pretty good and only 1 or 2 years left.

 

Headley will be 31 by May of next season. Sandoval does not turn 29 until next August. I think that age difference (and the implied possibility that the younger guy still has some improvement left) is one of the drivers of the market difference.

 

The three third base contestants do sort of line up neatly:

 

Ramirez: Pro: Best bat Con: Most expensive, riskiest glove

Sandoval: Pro: Good bat - age Con: Expensive, ok glove

Headley: Pro: Best glove, cheapest, Con: Worst bat

 

I agree with those, but the age factor is less important when you are looking at 28-34 or 31-34. I also worry about Pablo's weight issues longterm. No matter how Pablo performs, he will only be able to perform up to his contract, and never outperform it. If Headley ever shows 2012 offense again, he's an extremely valuable pickup.

[Behindenemylines]

Sandoval would be a no brainer if his weight was under control. 28 yrs old, hits lefty, and is a decent fielder. That weight thing as he pushes towards 30 could be a problem. Headley would be a safer pickup, but the Panda does have more upside. If the Sox do go after HanRan then they will also target left handed hitting outfielder. They got to add lefties somewhere.

[seabeachfred]

I just can't stop thinking that maybe Chase Headley will be the next Adrian Beltre type signing. He has 30 HR potential, but was stuck in bad lineups the last two years, and in a big time pitcher park most of his career. He has less power, and more OBP, but he's got Beltre defense at 3B, and can be had for relatively cheap, without draft pick compensation.

 

Pablo also played in a pitcher park, but the defense isn't remotely close to as good, and will cost significantly more money and talent for an extra career .050 OPS .

 

I would be prefer Headley too. He is a much better defensive third baseman than the other two, wouldn't cost us as much and wouldn't block Cecchini for more than a year or two. I want our money used for two solid starting pitchers and not a bunch of low risk high reward turds who we have used before with miserable and disastrous results.

[BSN07]

I would be prefer Headley too. He is a much better defensive third baseman than the other two, wouldn't cost us as much and wouldn't block Cecchini for more than a year or two. I want our money used for two solid starting pitchers and not a bunch of low risk high reward turds who we have used before with miserable and disastrous results.

 

It's a toss up for me between Headley and Panda for me. If Panda's price tag gets too ridiculous than I probably prefer Headley.

[BSN07]

I've been kicking around some ideas for "my off season plan" and this is what I've come up with

 

The big trade: Hamels and Howard for Napoli, Vic, WMB and Barnes. Some may scoof at that package but if you take into account the heavy sum of $ Philly would be saving, getting 2 good ML players on expiring contracts, a wild card in WMB who could end up being their starting 3B and a High quality P prospect in Barnes and it's a good deal.

 

The big signings: Chase Headley(3/39M) and Hanley Ramirez(5/95M)

 

Another trade: Cepedes for SP X. I'll go with Samardzija for now.

 

So the lineup would be,

 

1B Howard/Craig

2B Pedroia

SS Bogaerts

3B Headley

LF Ramirez(his agents have said he will play wherever)

CF Betts

RF Castillo

C Vasquez

 

Bench:

 

Craig

Holt

Nava

C X

 

Rotation:

Hamels

Samrdzija/Pitcher X

Buchholz

Kelly

Prospect

 

That plan push the ol LT limit but it only be for one year. Sox have plenty freed up after this season too. It be a lot to pull off but I think it would make them a contender for the next few years.

[Palodios]

I've been kicking around some ideas for "my off season plan" and this is what I've come up with

 

The big trade: Hamels and Howard for Napoli, Vic, WMB and Barnes. Some may scoof at that package but if you take into account the heavy sum of $ Philly would be saving, getting 2 good ML players on expiring contracts, a wild card in WMB who could end up being their starting 3B and a High quality P prospect in Barnes and it's a good deal.

 

Howard has 60 million left on his contract, and has been virtually worthless in one of the best hitter parks in the majors. Nap/Vic may be worth their contracts, and may be worth a qualifying offer and possibly pull in draft picks in 2016. You'd essentially be spending 5/170 plus prospects for Hamels, and losing several quality players. Why not spend that money on Lester or Scherzer? Scherzer has 600 fewer IP on his arm, and Lester 200 IP.

[jd98]

Which part is unrealistic? Not that I predict that would happen but I do think it's feasible

 

They've given no indication that they will go over the luxury tax, and you just went way over. You also traded away maybe 4 of the top 5 prospects (if you still count Bogaerts as a prospect), which I sure hope they would not do.

 

Personally, I would take Betts over CarGo for the next 3 years without even considering salary. When you factor in salary, it's not even close. CarGo is coming off a bad season and a knee surgery, is as oft injured as anybody not named after a cereal, and has only hit .256/.309./433 in his career away from Coors.

[jd98]

Howard has 60 million left on his contract, and has been virtually worthless in one of the best hitter parks in the majors. Nap/Vic may be worth their contracts, and may be worth a qualifying offer and possibly pull in draft picks in 2016. You'd essentially be spending 5/170 plus prospects for Hamels, and losing several quality players. Why not spend that money on Lester or Scherzer? Scherzer has 600 fewer IP on his arm, and Lester 200 IP.

 

Phillies would have to pay part of Howard's contract. I think they easily pay $10m each year and the $10 m buyout. If you could get them to pay $15m per year plus the buyout, that would make the contract $10m for the next two years, which isn't too bad. Even when Howard sucks, he still drives in runs (95 RBI last year), which the Sox sorely missed last season. He does have a knack for hitting much better with RISP.

 

That trade would then only add about $3m in salary for next year, and keep all the best prospects. Still could easily sign Lester and Headley too and be under the luxury tax limit. I kinda like it.

 

Edited to add:

I think the Phillies would want more. Article today says they are looking for 3 top prospects (not gonna happen). Also, you have to at least be concerned with Hamels career numbers in AL parks.

Edited November 9, 2014 by jd98

[Spudboy]

In the past several days I've read that Sandoval will be seeking in the neighborhood of 6/100 and that the Sox will meet with his agent in Phoenix this coming week.

 

As most of you probably know, I think most of today's big league athletes are way over paid. I can't believe that Sandoval can be worth anywhere near what he wants. I see him as being adequately ( within the context of what players are presently being paid ) compensated at his current rate. He is not a game changer or big time talent. He's a cuddly panda bear with a sort of catchy name and mediocre stats. Basically, an average player.

 

I think that it makes NO SENSE to pay this guy anymore than 15 mil. a year. And that is being generous because he is just not THAT valuable. The grass always seems to be greener with players that are on other teams especially when the Sox do not have a decent in-house option at that position.

 

Hedley is another player that seems to be attractive. The same with Hanley.

 

I am wondering if the Sox are not able or willing to sign one of these guys, what will they do? Will they stick Holt at third and wait for Cechini to emerge?

 

I think that we all agree that starting pitching is the main need of this team. How big of a priority is 3rd base to the Sox? Is there anyone on the Roster that can fill this position ( assuming that XB stays at SS ) or is there another 3rd baseman out there that the Sox would sign for a short dollar, short commitment?

 

I'm not advocating this approach. But I can see this happening!

 

Can Hedley be bought for 2 or 3 at 10-13/year? If so, is he worth that for 3 years?

 

Obviously the Yankees should be in on this. What other teams may be willing to spend the big dollars to land the "Big Prize" Panda? Will he get that much from anyone? Even SF?

 

I think that we should all be prepared for the Sox opting out on a big deal free agent at 3rd. It is a possibility.

 

In any case, let's all hope that Cechini can refine his craft in the first half of 2015. He may be needed!

[SoxFanForsyth]

Here's the thing about Sandoval. He can play 1B. I love players with versatility (look at my above post about HanRam).

 

The 2015-2016 FA class for 1B is extremely weak. J

 

eff Baker (35)

Kyle Blanks (29)

Chris Davis (30)

Edwin Encarnacion (33) – $10MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Garrett Jones (35)

Justin Morneau (35) – $9MM mutual option with a $750K buyout

Mike Napoli (34)

Sean Rodriguez (31)

Gaby Sanchez (32)

 

If the Red Sox don't want to sign a 34 year old Napoli, they really don't have any options. If they have Panda, they can slide him over to 1B and let Cecchini play 3B in 2016.

 

Headley wouldn't allow for that kind of versatility. Yes, Sandoval costs a lot more, but you pay the premium for future flexibility.

[SoxFanForsyth]

They've given no indication that they will go over the luxury tax, and you just went way over. You also traded away maybe 4 of the top 5 prospects (if you still count Bogaerts as a prospect), which I sure hope they would not do.

 

Personally, I would take Betts over CarGo for the next 3 years without even considering salary. When you factor in salary, it's not even close. CarGo is coming off a bad season and a knee surgery, is as oft injured as anybody not named after a cereal, and has only hit .256/.309./433 in his career away from Coors.

 

There's certainly a good chance that Betts outperforms Cargo over the next 3 years. I am looking at CarGo because the Sox need a LHH power bat pretty bad. CarGo was a near-5 win player as recent as 2013.

 

I'm not 100% sold on him. And to get a couple players like he and Tulo, you have to give up a ton. If we could get Tulo for Bogaerts, Eddie Rodriguez, and Blake Swihart, I pull the trigger on that too and find a LHH elsewhere.

[Palodios]

Here's the thing about Sandoval. He can play 1B. I love players with versatility (look at my above post about HanRam).

 

Being able to play first base is not versatility. You can take most players with a big bat and poor defense and hide them at first. The last thing this team needs is to spend 100 million dollars on a player with a .750 OPS, and stick them at the most offensive orientated position in the majors.

 

If Sandoval can't play 3rd, they should not sign him.

[jd98]

I'll take my turn at being couch GM.

 

Lester 6/$150m, $25m AAV

Mccarthy 3/$36m, $12m AAV

Headley 4/$50m, $12.5m AAV

 

Trade Napoli, Victorino, Middlebrooks, DeLaRosa and 1 of Owens/Rodriguez/Johnson for Hamels and Howard and Phillies pay 15m/15m/10m on Howard

Hamels 22m AAV

Howard 10m AAV

 

CF Betts

2B Pedroia

DH Ortiz

LF Cespedes

1B Howard/Craig

3B Headley

RF Castillo

SS Bogaerts

C Vazquez

 

Bench -- Holt, Nava, Howard/Craig, league minimum backup C, internal options

 

SP -- Lester, Hamels, McCarthy, Buchholz, Kelly

Bullpen -- Uehara, Tazawa, Mujica, Workman/Layne/Britton/Webster/other internal options

 

That would be right at the cap if I crunched the numbers right, and no draft picks given up.

Edited November 9, 2014 by jd98

[Bellhorn04]

Ryan Howard is just about done.

[a700hitter]

Ryan Howard is done.

[jd98]

I don't particularly want Howard, but it's a part of getting Hamels for less prospects. It's only for 2 years, probably in a platoon, and he still has power and drives in runs. He was 4th in the NL in RBI last year on a team that was bottom third offensively, and that was probably his worst hitting year. If he could bounce back some, he's got decent value. If he continues to get worse, then you could replace him with Nava or Holt and you would essentially be overpaying Hamels for the first two years.

[seabeachfred]

I'll take my turn at being couch GM.

 

Lester 6/$150m, $25m AAV

Mccarthy 3/$36m, $12m AAV

Headley 4/$50m, $12.5m AAV

 

Trade Napoli, Victorino, Middlebrooks, DeLaRosa and 1 of Owens/Rodriguez/Johnson for Hamels and Howard and Phillies pay 15m/15m/10m on Howard

Hamels 22m AAV

Howard 10m AAV

 

CF Betts

2B Pedroia

DH Ortiz

LF Cespedes

1B Howard/Craig

3B Headley

RF Castillo

SS Bogaerts

C Vazquez

 

Bench -- Holt, Nava, Howard/Craig, league minimum backup C, internal options

 

SP -- Lester, Hamels, McCarthy, Buchholz, Kelly

Bullpen -- Uehara, Tazawa, Mujica, Workman/Layne/Britton/Webster/other internal options

 

That would be right at the cap if I crunched the numbers right, and no draft picks given up.

 

What's all this crap about Ryan Howard? The guy had faded faster than a pair of old jeans and the Phils are dying to dump him off on someone. We have Napoli on first and don't need a first baseman next season, especially one who can't hit left handers worth a damn. I'm beginning to become more and more convinced that the front office has become totally scared shitless to give another young players full chance at a position because of what took place this season with Bradley's pathetically worthless season and Bogaerts' meltdown for most of the year. We can't become a dumping ground for expensive over the hill players. The Dodgers, Tigers, Nationals and Phillies have gone that route and none of them have won a title and only the Tigers have a pennant of the four the past five seasons. We need two good starting pitchers and we need to spend money on that....first and foremost. If we go for Hamels and we have to take Howard along with it to make the deal, then we forget that deal and sign one of the free agent pitchers. Howard should not be part of a package deal for Cole. Besides, Betts is ready to play a position and we should not shitcan Cecchini because of one half of a bad season when he has hit well the rest of his minor league career. He and Holt can hold down third if we have to go that route in order to get two solid starters and strengthen our bullpen. A healthy Pedroia, Napoli, Papi and Castillo give us a good offensive nucleus and if Victorino comes back strong we have a solid team, especially if everyone else's favorite Bogaerts comes back strong in his second year. Just hope that Cherington doesn't screw things up worse for us by trying to make a big splash.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Really really good read here by Peter Gammons. Guy is as plugged in as they come.

 

Pretty cool that Bogaerts is out in Arizona with Pedroia. That will pay dividends. Lots of trade talk in this article too

 

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-cherington-red-sox-faced-with-long-winter-ahead/

[SoxFanForsyth]

What's all this crap about Ryan Howard? The guy had faded faster than a pair of old jeans and the Phils are dying to dump him off on someone. We have Napoli on first and don't need a first baseman next season, especially one who can't hit left handers worth a damn. I'm beginning to become more and more convinced that the front office has become totally scared shitless to give another young players full chance at a position because of what took place this season with Bradley's pathetically worthless season and Bogaerts' meltdown for most of the year. We can't become a dumping ground for expensive over the hill players. The Dodgers, Tigers, Nationals and Phillies have gone that route and none of them have won a title and only the Tigers have a pennant of the four the past five seasons. We need two good starting pitchers and we need to spend money on that....first and foremost. If we go for Hamels and we have to take Howard along with it to make the deal, then we forget that deal and sign one of the free agent pitchers. Howard should not be part of a package deal for Cole. Besides, Betts is ready to play a position and we should not shitcan Cecchini because of one half of a bad season when he has hit well the rest of his minor league career. He and Holt can hold down third if we have to go that route in order to get two solid starters and strengthen our bullpen. A healthy Pedroia, Napoli, Papi and Castillo give us a good offensive nucleus and if Victorino comes back strong we have a solid team, especially if everyone else's favorite Bogaerts comes back strong in his second year. Just hope that Cherington doesn't screw things up worse for us by trying to make a big splash.

 

You know the Sox are committing to Bogaerts, Betts, Vazquez, and Castillo. Plus a SP in the 5 slot and probably 2-3 bullpen slots in the pen. They're not at all afraid to commit to young talent.

 

I agree. If we have to take Howard to get Hamels, no deal. Go get Samardzija or Cueto, and wait for the massive FA SP crop next seasob

[dupree]

Instead of a trade for Jeff Samardzija I would look to SF at a trade for The Freak Tim Lincecum. I know he has had a lot of problems that have thrown him into the bullpen. But as a #3 or #4 I'd like that option. A change of scenery may just do the trick.

 

Sign Lester (to a club friendly deal)

Trade for Cole Hamels

Trade for Tim Lincecum

Buch & Kelly to fill out the rotation with the prospects filling in the gaps due to injuries.

 

I honestly don't see a huge haul for Timmy. He would be had for 1 top tier and maybe two lower level propects.

[sk7326]

In the past several days I've read that Sandoval will be seeking in the neighborhood of 6/100 and that the Sox will meet with his agent in Phoenix this coming week.

 

As most of you probably know, I think most of today's big league athletes are way over paid. I can't believe that Sandoval can be worth anywhere near what he wants. I see him as being adequately ( within the context of what players are presently being paid ) compensated at his current rate. He is not a game changer or big time talent. He's a cuddly panda bear with a sort of catchy name and mediocre stats. Basically, an average player.

 

I think that it makes NO SENSE to pay this guy anymore than 15 mil. a year. And that is being generous because he is just not THAT valuable. The grass always seems to be greener with players that are on other teams especially when the Sox do not have a decent in-house option at that position.

 

Hedley is another player that seems to be attractive. The same with Hanley.

 

I am wondering if the Sox are not able or willing to sign one of these guys, what will they do? Will they stick Holt at third and wait for Cechini to emerge?

 

I think that we all agree that starting pitching is the main need of this team. How big of a priority is 3rd base to the Sox? Is there anyone on the Roster that can fill this position ( assuming that XB stays at SS ) or is there another 3rd baseman out there that the Sox would sign for a short dollar, short commitment?

 

I'm not advocating this approach. But I can see this happening!

 

Can Hedley be bought for 2 or 3 at 10-13/year? If so, is he worth that for 3 years?

 

Obviously the Yankees should be in on this. What other teams may be willing to spend the big dollars to land the "Big Prize" Panda? Will he get that much from anyone? Even SF?

 

I think that we should all be prepared for the Sox opting out on a big deal free agent at 3rd. It is a possibility.

 

In any case, let's all hope that Cechini can refine his craft in the first half of 2015. He may be needed!

 

Overpaid relative to teachers and folks who do social good? No doubt.

 

Overpaid relative to an industry that is drowning in cash between TV and taxpayer funded stadiums? Not so much. And in free agency (the winners curse thing) teams will likely overpay just by having to win an auction.

 

3B is a priority simply because that position has performed so terribly the last 2 seasons. The only decent production we've had there in the last 3 years was a Bogaerts postseason and splashes of Brock Holt and Middlebrooks. For an alleged corner bat position, that is rough.

 

Frankly my first call would be to Jon Daniels to see if Beltre is available - Rangers do need to get younger, Beltre has what looks like a decent contract now (1 year, $16M with a pretty reasonable vest for 2016) and though 35 is still playing at an All-Star level (if not downballot MVP one).

 

But assuming that is a non-starter (simply because the Rangers might still have dreams) - Sandoval is probably the safer of the two between him and Ramirez (between age and defense). Headley is probably a better value. A bridge solution would be nice though - but 3B depth across the league is poor, it's hard to find those guys.

[Bellhorn04]

Instead of a trade for Jeff Samardzija I would look to SF at a trade for The Freak Tim Lincecum. I know he has had a lot of problems that have thrown him into the bullpen. But as a #3 or #4 I'd like that option. A change of scenery may just do the trick.

 

Sign Lester (to a club friendly deal)

Trade for Cole Hamels

Trade for Tim Lincecum

Buch & Kelly to fill out the rotation with the prospects filling in the gaps due to injuries.

 

I honestly don't see a huge haul for Timmy. He would be had for 1 top tier and maybe two lower level propects.

 

No offence, but that'd be crazy. Lincecum has been very bad for 3 consecutive seasons. He had a 4.74 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP last year. And SF has a pitcher-friendly park.

 

On top of that, he makes $18 million next year.

[sk7326]

No offence, but that'd be crazy. Lincecum has been very bad for 3 consecutive seasons. He had a 4.74 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP last year. And SF has a pitcher-friendly park.

 

On top of that, he makes $18 million next year.

 

Lincecum was booted from the rotation which was not actually that good (not up to Giants timber of 2010 or 2012). He got $18M from SF almost entirely as a thank you present for what he did for the club in his cheaper years. I think Lincecum has some real value as a 100 IP relief weapon if a team wanted to try that (and with the success the Giants had with Petit, maybe "long men" might come back into fashion). But he is a back end starter now at best.

[redsoxfan3]

MLBTR is reporting the Braves are shopping Evan Gattis. What do you guys think about possibly trading for him? Unfortunately he is a RHH, but he could split time with Vazquez. He put up 20+ HR seasons in 2013 and 2014. He is at least an interesting option.