How did Ben do today?

[jd98]

...

Why on Earth we couldn't/didn't/wouldn't deal Uehara is beyond me.

 

...

 

I was going to mention that in my last post, but forgot. Apparently they wanted to keep him and offer him the qualifying offer, which will be around $15 million, and he almost surely would accept. I love Koji, but that's an overpay, and I would have traded him for a top prospect, and tried to resign him after the season.

[Palodios]

You know what Cherrington got today? He got two right handed power bats that play corner outfield positions.

 

I don't buy Craig as a power bat. He's averaged what, 13 HR a year? Maybe he was a doubles hitters, but does he really look like one now?

 

So what did you want do? Go trade for an A level prospect? Wait 3 years, hope he pans out, and do what in the meanwhile?

 

For the outfield, the hope was that Ben could have scooped up someone like Taveras or Pederson that was a bit closer to the majors. No such luck I guess -- none of the top 50ish prospects were moved today, even for Price.

 

You can find pitching. The Sox have plenty of pitching depth and prospects to trade. They can buy pitching (they will resign Lester, bank on that).

 

Plenty of prospects, sure. But real pitching? They seem very reluctant to sign any pitcher over 30 -- look at Lester-- and I seriously doubt they'll overpay to get Shields here. I hold out hope for the trade-and-sign, but is this team really willing to shell out the 130-140 million that would be a hometown discount for Lester?

[seabeachfred]

I'll tell you one thing right now. Cespedes, Craig, Napoli, Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Bogaerts. This team is going to annihilate left handed pitching.

 

good luck tomorrow, Capuano.

 

Every time one of you start mouthing that we are going to kill this team or that pitcher we wind up getting the s*** knocked out of us. Please, save it SFF and just keep your fingers crossed that we drive in some runs and Renaudo pitches a solid game. Since you said what you said I have to counter that with...."we are still in deep s*** tomorrow and we need some luck and a lot of pride to pull out a game for a change." There that's the anecdote to what you said and gives us a chance to pick up a win tomorrow.

[seabeachfred]

Lets just sit tight before we make any kind of declaration on this trade deadline. I think we can all agree on 2 things. 1: This FO is done with 2014, and is looking at 2015. 2: This team is not nearly complete for 2015. So it's really pointless to look at this deadline and grade it without knowing what they're going to do this winter. If they go out and sign Lester and Shields this offseason, the team looks a lot, lot better. You go Lester - Shields - Buch - Kelley - RDLR? You've got an excellent chance to do some things.

 

Looking at this right now is like looking at anything else half finished, it's got a good chance of looking like absolute crap.

 

In other words - don't look at our pitching staff until he addresses our pitching staff. For right now, how do you think our offense looks? Because that's all we can judge right now. My guess is that our 2015 lineup goes something like this:

 

Betts CF

Pedroia 2B

Ortiz DH

Cespedes RF

Napoli 1B

Craig LF

Bogaerts SS

Middlebrooks 3B

Vazquez C

 

That looks pretty damn strong to me.

 

I like that lineup SFF, especially since Bradley is nowhere in it. Betts can give us the speed and hitting Jackie couldn't do to save his life. However, I think you dissed Holt. He needs to be in there somewhere even if he has to spell one of the o thers every day. He can do that since he can play most every position.

[BigPapi]

Some of you are really high on craig. Sure he was a very nice player last year and is a career .291 hitter, but he has been HORRENDOUS this year. His numbers compare to Xander Bogaerts'. The Cardinals are already in need of offense this season as they are second to last in the nl so that shows you how low they were on him this year. If he can regain his form, obviously it would be a good deal for the sox. But for the cards to just give us arguably their best hitter last year might mean they think he is really screwed up right now.

[sk7326]

I'll give him a generous C-. I didn't really like any of the trades, but I know he's not done yet, and I don't know what the other offers were and probably had my expectations too high. The offense is improved for next year, but that's all I can say for now. Here's my long assessment of the trades. You've been warned.

 

Lester trade -- Gomes is probably worth the essentially 3rd round draft pick, so it's Lester and cash for 1 year of Cespedes. He's probably overrated by the casual fan because of his good first season and the last two homerun derbies, but he's a good player and a definite upgrade with potential to be even better. My problem is it's only for 1 year. If he was under contract for 3 years for the $10-12 million per year, I'd be ok with this deal.

 

Lackey trade -- the Lester trade shows they are building for 2015, so this one is a head scratcher. If Lackey pitches for 500k next year, then this trade is dumb, and I'd drop my overall grade to D. Assuming that Lackey is being a dick, then this trade hinges on Craig. His 2014 is baffling. Is he struggling with minor injuries this year? Anybody know? If they get 2014 performance then this trade is still really bad. If he bounces back to pre-2014 form, then I'm ok with this one.

 

I'm not liking Joe Kelly at all. It's possible he figures something out and suddenly becomes good, like Jake Arietta this year, but his stats so far look like he's been extremely lucky. A career WHIP of 1.38 with a strike out rate of 6.1 per 9 innings. He had a WHIP of 1.398 in the minors. That's a lot of base runners and will likely increase in the AL, and with a low K rate, that's not a good recipe for success. In 38 starts he's pitched 7 innings twice, and never more than 7. That's really bad.

 

Miller trade -- Eduardo Rodriguez is rated as high as #3 prospect for Orioles, but that's all based on potential rather than performance. He was really good in rookie ball (big whoop), then solid but nothing special in A ball, and has been rather bad in AA. I'd prefer a top prospect that has a more proven track record of success. I'm not going to hold out hopes that he ever amounts to anything in the majors.

 

Drew trade -- a salary dump which just saves enough money to pay what they are sending Oakland and St Louis, which they shouldn't have had to do in the first place. At least Bogaerts can move back to SS now and we'll see if that helps him.

 

Don't grade Rodriguez too harshly. Rough season in AA, but he's also 21 there - young for the level, there is some work to do, but he was the best prospect dealt today by anybody. That the Sox got him for a short reliever is easily the best deal anybody made today.

 

Overall, Cherington noted the team wanted major league help from these deals explicitly - so that is an ownership level decision, and so the moves have to have that in the context.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Gave him a B.

 

Only move I didn't really like was the Lackey move. Though I suspect there is something behind the scenes with that contract situation that we don't know about.

 

Lester trade was solid. I wanted Pederson/Tavares too but clearly the market is not yielding that (Price with 1.5 years didn't get anything like that). Sox needed OF power badly and Cespedes should be a core piece for a while (I assume they will resign him when the time comes). BA had Owens/Swihart (and Mookie too) as top 15 prospects, makes me wonder what one of those could fetch on the open market.

 

Miller trade was great, a top 75 prospect (Law had him at #43 in his midseason fwiw) for like 15 innings of Miller? Awesome move.

 

Drew getting dumped to the Yankees was a nice surprise as it allows Bogaerts to reclaim his normal spot.

 

Peavy trade brought in two solid arms (Escobar had a nice 6.0, 5 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5K debut in Pawtucket). I think Escobar's struggles were PCL league related, think he rises up the ranks once his stats are corrected.

[Palodios]

Don't grade Rodriguez too harshly. Rough season in AA, but he's also 21 there - young for the level, there is some work to do, but he was the best prospect dealt today by anybody. That the Sox got him for a short reliever is easily the best deal anybody made today.

 

Did you see the Cosart deal? The Astros got two top prospects for him. One of these teams probably won big there, but I have no idea which one.

[example1]

Some of you are really high on craig. Sure he was a very nice player last year and is a career .291 hitter, but he has been HORRENDOUS this year. His numbers compare to Xander Bogaerts'. The Cardinals are already in need of offense this season as they are second to last in the nl so that shows you how low they were on him this year. If he can regain his form, obviously it would be a good deal for the sox. But for the cards to just give us arguably their best hitter last year might mean they think he is really screwed up right now.

 

And if he were anywhere near the player he was last year they wouldn't be able to get him without giving up a lot of really good players. Instead they moved Lackey, who many here were ready to give away a few years ago. Literally would have let him go for nothing. If Lackey can redeem himself then why can't Craig? After all, it isn't like last year was Craig's only good season... the last three years (328 g, 1296 PA) he put up a .312/.364/.500/.863 line. We're acting like Lackey is Randy Johnson and Craig is Nick Punto. They are closer to one another in value than many are willing to admit.

[jd98]

Some of you are really high on craig. Sure he was a very nice player last year and is a career .291 hitter, but he has been HORRENDOUS this year. His numbers compare to Xander Bogaerts'. The Cardinals are already in need of offense this season as they are second to last in the nl so that shows you how low they were on him this year. If he can regain his form, obviously it would be a good deal for the sox. But for the cards to just give us arguably their best hitter last year might mean they think he is really screwed up right now.

 

That .291 is including this current terrible season. Before this year he was .306/.358/.492 in 1420 plate appearances. He was .308/.369/.518 in 2209 minor league plate appearances. I don't know what's up with this season, but he's been a consistent .300+ hitter with 25 HR power before this year. Just gotta hope this year was a fluke.

[BigPapi]

That .291 is including this current terrible season. Before this year he was .306/.358/.492 in 1420 plate appearances. He was .308/.369/.518 in 2209 minor league plate appearances. I don't know what's up with this season, but he's been a consistent .300+ hitter with 25 HR power before this year. Just gotta hope this year was a fluke.

 

Your going to tell me he is a 25 hr hitter when he has never hit more than 22 and has hit 13 at most besides that season?

[d-money]

I gave cherington an F as well.Didnt like the lackey deal.

[d-money]

I hope management understands that us sox fans wont be fooled by these moves.I will wait to see what they do in the offseason if anything atall.

[jd98]

Your going to tell me he is a 25 hr hitter when he has never hit more than 22 and has hit 13 at most besides that season?

 

OK then. A 22 HR hitter. In 469 AB. And he hit 3 in 28 minor league AB's that year, so that would be 25 HR still in only 497 AB. I didn't notice he only had 13 last year in 508 AB, so that is worrisome. The 25 HR estimate is based on a full season of AB, which he hasn't really done yet. In his major and minor league career before this season, he has 26.45 HR per 600 AB. So yeah, I think saying he has 25 HR power isn't so outlandish.

[BigPapi]

OK then. A 22 HR hitter. In 469 AB. And he hit 3 in 28 minor league AB's that year, so that would be 25 HR still in only 497 AB. I didn't notice he only had 13 last year in 508 AB, so that is worrisome. The 25 HR estimate is based on a full season of AB, which he hasn't really done yet. In his major and minor league career before this season, he has 26.45 HR per 600 AB. So yeah, I think saying he has 25 HR power isn't so outlandish.

 

It is outlandish. Is Chris Davis still a 50 hr hitter? In 500 at bats last year he only hit 13 and this year he only has 7 through 367 at bats. The cards are obviously concerned about him cause no team in their right mind would give a .300 25 hr guy and a stArting pitcher for lackey when they need offense desperately. I really hope you are right though with Craig.

Edited August 1, 2014 by BigPapi

[example1]

I hope management understands that us sox fans wont be fooled by these moves.I will wait to see what they do in the offseason if anything atall.

 

What does this mean. You won't be fooled? They are currently poised to have a tiny payroll in 2015. Do you think that's how this will end? They aren't trying to fool you, they are trying to make reasonable deals that help them move forward. It's on you to tolerate a little ambiguity for a minute. It's not on them to maintain an ambiguity-free-zone. That expectation would be like tying both hands behind their back.

[jd98]

It is outlandish. Is Chris Davis still a 50 hr hitter? In 500 at bats last year he only hit 13 and this year he only has 7 through 367 at bats. The cards are obviously concerned about him cause no team in their right mind would give a .300 25 hr guy and a stArting pitcher for lackey when they need offense desperately. I really hope you are right though with Craig.

 

I'm concerned about him too. I'm not saying he's gonna hit .300 with 25 HR, just that before this season, that's the type of player he has looked like. I didn't notice his drop in power last season when I made my first post on the topic, so that concerns me more. I have no idea which Allen Craig we will get. I don't see the Cards enough to even guess as to what is wrong with him. The potential is there for a really good hitter or he could be a huge bust.

Edited August 1, 2014 by jd98

[BigPapi]

I'm concerned about him too. I'm not saying he's gonna hit .300 with 25 HR, just that before this season, that's the type of player he has looked like. I didn't notice his drop in power last season when I made my first post on the topic, so that concerns me more. I have no idea which Allen Craig we will get. I don't see the Cards enough to even fathom a guess as to what is wrong with him. The potential is there for a really good hitter or he could be a huge bust.

 

Hopefully he can stay healthy and be a solid player. He has really only played 1 kind- of full season in the bigs and he is 30 years old.

[Navafan29]

There are a lot more negative people here than in the media. Out of all the TV personnel, baseball writers, and radio hosts I've heard from so far, none of them think Cherington did a bad job. Lester would have been gone anyways but instead of getting nothing for him, we got Cespedes. Talent-wise, Lackey for Kelly and Craig is a very fair trade. Yes, you're losing Lackey, but you're getting Kelly, who is only a slight downgrade, AND you're getting Allen freaking Craig. Instead of losing talent, we traded to preserve it. All we need to solidify offensively now is catcher and 3rd base. Now the offseason is easier because we mostly only have to get starting pitching. We have Uehara, Nava, Bradley, De La Rosa, Mujica, and a lot of minor leaguers as trade candidates to get starting pitching. Since we have a lot of good established major leaguers, and based on the amount of time we have them, I say we don't have time to fumble around with prospects for another year. We need at least two solid major league starting pitchers this offseason. If we fumble around with rookies, we're just going to come in 4th or 5th again.

 

Good trade deadline. I give a B.

[yankthis]

Mixed feelings about the Lester thing but seeing Miller and Drew go is cause for celebration.

 

On the MLB boards some folks are bitching about how the Sox "gave the Yankees a shortstop to replace Jeter next year" lol Jeter is more productive when he excuses himself to take a piss than Drew will ever be at the plate.

[yankthis]

With Lackey and Lester both gone, now the Sox will lose most games at scores of around 9 or 10 to 7 rather than 2 or 3 to nothing.

[Beaneater]

Other than the shock of seeing Lester in any other uniform, I'm OK with that trade. We traded 2 absolutely useless months of Jon Lester (by which I mean that even if Lester threw consecutive perfect games for the rest of the season, it would do us no good at all) for, well, anything. That's fine by me. And I don't see the loss of a draft pick attached to Lester being a major factor in re-signing him. How many teams are going to say, "We just plain old don't have 120+ million bucks to sign that guy. Wait -- what's that you say? We don't lose a draft pick for signing him? Oh, well now we have all the money in the universe!" So I still hold out hope of seeing Jonny back in Boston, where he belongs, next season.

 

I don't know enough about the Miller deal to say anything about that.

 

I'm frustrated by the Lackey deal, because unless there's behind the scenes skullduggery, we traded 1+ season of Lackey at a total salary of $11.38 for another Allen Webster and whatever Craig is at this point. I would have thought that Lackey would bring more than that. The difference between Lester and Lackey is that we lost nothing (essentially) by trading Lester, but that's not the case for Lackey.

 

Oh, I guess Gomes was in there too. Never cared that much for him anyway (other than the fact that he seems to be a great clubhouse guy) so that's not losing me any sleep.

 

I guess we'll see in about a year or so whether or not we still suck.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't buy Craig as a power bat. He's averaged what, 13 HR a year? Maybe he was a doubles hitters, but does he really look like one now?

 

 

 

For the outfield, the hope was that Ben could have scooped up someone like Taveras or Pederson that was a bit closer to the majors. No such luck I guess -- none of the top 50ish prospects were moved today, even for Price.

 

 

 

Plenty of prospects, sure. But real pitching? They seem very reluctant to sign any pitcher over 30 -- look at Lester-- and I seriously doubt they'll overpay to get Shields here. I hold out hope for the trade-and-sign, but is this team really willing to shell out the 130-140 million that would be a hometown discount for Lester?

 

This is why you're so disappointed with his moves. These expectations were unrealistic, and it's not your fault, it's what the media fed us all week. "Maybe if they package Lester & Lackey they can get Tavares or Pederson". But that was always a pipe dream. And more importantly, there is no guarantee those guys pan out whatsoever, certainly not enough to help us win in 2015, which is what this is, and has been all about.

 

Tavares is really struggling right now, and Pederson, although his numbers look huge, is also hitting in the PCL where even JP Arencebia went nuts as a prospect. Take those numbers with a grain of salt. I think they will both be very good major league players, but they won't be impact players on the 2015 season.

 

As for Allen Craig, he's averaged 15 HR over the past 3 seasons, but he played 75G in his first season, 119G his second season, and 134 his 3rd. So his 162G average is 23 HR, 40 Doubles. He's not going to play 162, so knock that down to 145 and put him in the bandbox parks of the AL East and he's a 20-25 HR guy.

 

Cespedes, though? He'll hit 40 next year. He's got 80 power.

[jacksonianmarch]

It's hard to grade him. He bought low on Cespedes and Craig. Kelly is a stopgap as most people think he's a pen arm. The miller deal got them a solid prospect

[SoxFanForsyth]

It's hard to grade him. He bought low on Cespedes and Craig. Kelly is a stopgap as most people think he's a pen arm. The miller deal got them a solid prospect

 

It is surprising that he doesn't miss more bats with his velocity. The kid throws 96-98. Coming out of the pen, that's 98-99. You're looking at a Jim Johnson type pitcher out of the pen, which is pretty valuable. Considering you'd have that for 5 years, it wouldn't be a horrible return for Lackey.

 

I think a lot of people thought he would be a pen arm because he has a history of control issues. Those seem to have been sorted out though (2.57 BB/9 this year). If he can improve his secondary stuff just a bit, he's a mid-rotation guy.

[Palodios]

This is why you're so disappointed with his moves. These expectations were unrealistic, and it's not your fault, it's what the media fed us all week. "Maybe if they package Lester & Lackey they can get Tavares or Pederson". But that was always a pipe dream. And more importantly, there is no guarantee those guys pan out whatsoever, certainly not enough to help us win in 2015, which is what this is, and has been all about.

 

Theo got Addison Russell for Samardzija and his career 3.93 in the NL Central. Lackey has a cheaper contract, has a better track record, and had a 3.60 ERA in 11 starts last postseason. I am uncertain of the Lester deal, mostly because I am curious how Cespedes will do outside of the Coliseum, but would have liked a more long term piece for him. Sure there is no guarantee that prospects will pan out, but there is absolutely no guarantee that Craig will return to form. Maybe the guy is done.

[a700hitter]

Theo got Addison Russell for Samardzija and his career 3.93 in the NL Central. Lackey has a cheaper contract, has a better track record, and had a 3.60 ERA in 11 starts last postseason. I am uncertain of the Lester deal, mostly because I am curious how Cespedes will do outside of the Coliseum, but would have liked a more long term piece for him. Sure there is no guarantee that prospects will pan out, but there is absolutely no guarantee that Craig will return to form. Maybe the guy is done.

Theo got Addison Russell for Samardizja andJason Hammel. The Shark is only in his third full season as a starter and he is having a breakout season. He is not freevagency eligible until 2016. He is a big strikeout pitcher with excellent stuff and he is making $5 million in 2014. There was a lot more value there than with either of our guys.

[Palodios]

Theo got Addison Russell for Samardizja andJason Hammel. The Shark is only in his third full season as a starter and he is having a breakout season. He is not freevagency eligible until 2016. He is a big strikeout pitcher with excellent stuff and he is making $5 million in 2014. There was a lot more value there than with either of our guys.

 

I keep looking at numbers, and don't see Lackey as any less valuable. Maybe the Red Sox needed a throw in for the deal like Hammel was.

I also am surprised that the one-dumb-owner theory didn't pull in generational talent for Lester. I just assumed someone was drooling over 2013 World Series coverage.

[Bellhorn04]

Look at the grades - they're all over the place. Too funny. Nobody has a clue, like I said.

[sk7326]

Theo got Addison Russell for Samardzija and his career 3.93 in the NL Central. Lackey has a cheaper contract, has a better track record, and had a 3.60 ERA in 11 starts last postseason. I am uncertain of the Lester deal, mostly because I am curious how Cespedes will do outside of the Coliseum, but would have liked a more long term piece for him. Sure there is no guarantee that prospects will pan out, but there is absolutely no guarantee that Craig will return to form. Maybe the guy is done.

 

Oakland had a need - Cubs knew Hammel was a strong probability to turn into a pumpkin and Samardzjia is young and controllable. That was a fair trade for teams with different priorities. The Sox priorities were different than the Cubs even. Selling, but with 2015 as a major target - it was interesting to see what they did to balance those needs. To me, this move is a bet on Allen Craig to a degree - but more than that it is a bet on the kids, which is exciting. The Red Sox had some serious prospect inventory, but no organizational power to help the big league club. The moves shored that up, now it is on them to figure out the rest.