Andrew Mller traded to Orioles

[Palodios]

Here's the question about Andrew Miller. Do you want to give 4 years to a player who has only had one excellent season? This is a guy who has a 4.91 career ERA, and has previously had major control issues.

 

I'd rather give the money to a 32 year old K-rod than a 31 year old Andrew Miller.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Here's the question about Andrew Miller. Do you want to give 4 years to a player who has only had one excellent season? This is a guy who has a 4.91 career ERA, and has previously had major control issues.

 

I'd rather give the money to a 32 year old K-rod than a 31 year old Andrew Miller.

 

This is silly and you know it. His numbers are manipulated by him trying to be a starter.

 

Since being converted to a full time reliever (2012, 133.1 IP), he's posted a 2.57 era, 2.37 FIP, 2.32 xFIP, a 13.64 k/9 and a 3.65 bb/9.

 

For all relievers since 2012, min 100 ip, Miller ranks 9th in FIP, 4th in xFIP, and3rd in k/9. Is he worth a 4 year deal at 10mm per year? Probably not, but he's s hell of s lot better than KRod and tou tried to manipulate his information to make your point seem better than it is

[Dojji]

K-Rod is a ghost of his former self. Miller is a power lefty reliever and those are always capable of contributing something.

[BSN07]

Jesus K-rod is only 32? He seems like he's been around forever.

 

Miller is a really good BP arm. But we all know giving big FA deals to relievers usually turns bad. It be great to have him back but I think some team is gonna give him Closer money and maybe even a chance to close/ BP Ace. So I think he signs elsewhere.

[Palodios]

For all relievers since 2012, min 100 ip, Miller ranks 9th in FIP, 4th in xFIP, and3rd in k/9. Is he worth a 4 year deal at 10mm per year? Probably not, but he's s hell of s lot better than KRod and you tried to manipulate his information to make your point seem better than it is

 

Perhaps I overstated his career numbers, but the control issues are definitely there. Besides 2014, his BB/9 has been extremely high his entire career. In 2012 and 2013, his first and second years as a reliever, it was 4.5 BB/9 and 5.0 BB/9. Relief pitching is the most inconsistent position in baseball, and I seriously doubt Miller is going to be worth that 4/40.

[Spudboy]

Perhaps I overstated his career numbers, but the control issues are definitely there. Besides 2014, his BB/9 has been extremely high his entire career. In 2012 and 2013, his first and second years as a reliever, it was 4.5 BB/9 and 5.0 BB/9. Relief pitching is the most inconsistent position in baseball, and I seriously doubt Miller is going to be worth that 4/40.

 

I would not invest in 4 years of any reliever unless he was a Mariano type. I want Miller back but I don't see this happening because some team will be willing to over pay for him. This is why the Sox unloaded him. They did not want to pay too much for any one reliever. At least they got a very good prospect for him!

 

Last year going into the 2014 season we were all lamenting the signings of Badenhop an Mujica. They both started off poorly. But now, I believe that both should be back. Mujica is on a multi- year deal isn't he? Sign Badenhop and look for someone to replace Breslow. Put Workman in the pen and move on.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I would not invest in 4 years of any reliever unless he was a Mariano type. I want Miller back but I don't see this happening because some team will be willing to over pay for him. This is why the Sox unloaded him. They did not want to pay too much for any one reliever. At least they got a very good prospect for him!

 

Last year going into the 2014 season we were all lamenting the signings of Badenhop an Mujica. They both started off poorly. But now, I believe that both should be back. Mujica is on a multi- year deal isn't he? Sign Badenhop and look for someone to replace Breslow. Put Workman in the pen and move on.

 

Someone like the Tigers or Dodgers will give him 4/40 because they are both about 1 good RP away from being a WS favorite. If miller is that one extra piece you need to make to win a World Series, I can see giving him 4 years and it being justified by a WS win.

 

It's kind of like Victorino. Even if he only plays a few games next season, I make that signing every single time because he played a huge role in the Sox 2013 WS team.

[Bellhorn04]

Miller had a great season, especially after being traded, but $40 million for a reliever with 1 career save seems insane to me.

[sk7326]

Here's the question about Andrew Miller. Do you want to give 4 years to a player who has only had one excellent season? This is a guy who has a 4.91 career ERA, and has previously had major control issues.

 

I'd rather give the money to a 32 year old K-rod than a 31 year old Andrew Miller.

 

K-Rod is a 1-inning closer at this point, and can't handle anything higher leverage than that. Last year could be an outlier but the 14 HRs in less than 70 IPs is a major red flag.

 

But I wouldn't want to give 4 years to ANY reliever. That said, the Red Sox saved Miller's career, All reliever numbers are SSS granted, but in the pen he cut his walk rate in half, is striking out over 1/3 of the batters he faces and is a lefty who can pitch to both sides of the plate.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm hearing a ton of rumblings in the NY media that Cash is targeting miller

[Palodios]

All reliever numbers are SSS granted, but in the pen he cut his walk rate in half, is striking out over 1/3 of the batters he faces and is a lefty who can pitch to both sides of the plate.

 

Just to clarify, as a reliever in 2012 and 2013, Miller did not cut down on his walk rate at all. He didn't do that until this year. There's my skepticism, his improvement is really a one-year sample at this point, which seems like a big risk for a 4 year contract.

[sk7326]

Just to clarify, as a reliever in 2012 and 2013, Miller did not cut down on his walk rate at all. He didn't do that until this year. There's my skepticism, his improvement is really a one-year sample at this point, which seems like a big risk for a 4 year contract.

 

Oh we agree on the 4-year hitch. But I do think there is some real development-related improvement, stuff which is more built to last than other things. That said, it does portend to what the Red Sox SHOULD do with the bullpen. Take your Webster, your Workman, maybe throw a few shekels at Brandon Morrow ... take your ex-starters with stuff and make them the next Wade Davis or Andrew Millers.

[a700hitter]

Oh we agree on the 4-year hitch. But I do think there is some real development-related improvement, stuff which is more built to last than other things. That said, it does portend to what the Red Sox SHOULD do with the bullpen. Take your Webster, your Workman, maybe throw a few shekels at Brandon Morrow ... take your ex-starters with stuff and make them the next Wade Davis or Andrew Millers.

Workman has experience working out of the pen and he has done well at it. Webster would need some grooming at AAA to make sure that he could throw strikes and command the zone out of the pen.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think it is time for Webster to relieve next yr. He doesn't have the command to be a starter

[Bellhorn04]

I think it is time for Webster to relieve next yr. He doesn't have the command to be a starter

 

It might be just Kool-Aid, but he did finish well last year. In September he gave up 5 walks in 24 innings.

[Spudboy]

Webster did look better late in the year.

 

He could not have looked much worse!

 

I think that it's way too early to make an assessment about his command or even mental toughness. He has very good stuff at times. He just has to learn how to pitch!

 

But a stint in the pen certainly won't do him any harm unless he is a piece slotted for trade.

[a700hitter]

It might be just Kool-Aid, but he did finish well last year. In September he gave up 5 walks in 24 innings.

If he becomes a 2 pitch pitcher out of the pen, he might be able to establish better command. The guy has a live arm.

[sk7326]

It might be just Kool-Aid, but he did finish well last year. In September he gave up 5 walks in 24 innings.

 

With the starting it's not the command - but the ability to command 3 pitches (and thus turn a lineup over at least 2 times). Webster doesn't have that ability or feel. But give him a role where he doesn't have to throw the 3rd pitch, and his fastball can play up a couple extra mph, and he could be fantastic.

[seabeachfred]

With the starting it's not the command - but the ability to command 3 pitches (and thus turn a lineup over at least 2 times). Webster doesn't have that ability or feel. But give him a role where he doesn't have to throw the 3rd pitch, and his fastball can play up a couple extra mph, and he could be fantastic.

 

Good point sk. You may be on to something and I hope you're right. It was obvious that Webster has not been on the mark as a starter, either in the short stay with us in 2013 or most of this past season. The bullpen and one time through the lineup might be just the ticket for a guy with a live arm and only two pitches he can control consistently.

[Spudboy]

Kind of a shame to give up on him that way now, though.

[sk7326]

Kind of a shame to give up on him that way now, though.

 

I don't think it's giving up per se - team is trying to optimize the player. It could be Webster's best way to get rich also. Now he might end up being a good starter, but the control issues - both the walks and the somewhat alarming homerun rates for an alleged sinkerballer. Developing that third pitch is something you can figure out relatively quickly.

[GomesBeard]

Kind of a shame to give up on him that way now, though.

 

I agree. I mean, he has 18 starts in the bigs over 2 seasons! His AAA stats are good enough that he should get a chance in the spring as a starter. With the holes the Sox currently have in the rotation, I don't think they can give up on anyone as a starter yet.

[sk7326]

I agree. I mean, he has 18 starts in the bigs over 2 seasons! His AAA stats are good enough that he should get a chance in the spring as a starter. With the holes the Sox currently have in the rotation, I don't think they can give up on anyone as a starter yet.

 

If he comes back with a real third pitch that is one thing ... but the indicators have not been good and the Red Sox org depth here is considerable. De La Rosa, Owens and Barnes are all more projectable - and maybe even the dude we got for Miller (who I have not seen).

[jacksonianmarch]

It might be just Kool-Aid, but he did finish well last year. In September he gave up 5 walks in 24 innings.

 

There is a saying that goes something like never believe what you see in March or September. Webster lacks the mentality and the command of a major league starter. He has the stuff to dominate late innings if they limit his arsenal to two pitches.

[Bellhorn04]

There is a saying that goes something like never believe what you see in March or September. Webster lacks the mentality and the command of a major league starter. He has the stuff to dominate late innings if they limit his arsenal to two pitches.

 

I'd like to see the reasoning behind why September numbers don't mean anything. I can see it if it's garbage games where both teams are out of it. I can see it if some September callup gets hot for a couple of weeks. But I can't see how it applies to a starting pitcher who's trying to stay in the big leagues.

 

Anyway you and others could certainly be right that he's better suited to be a reliever.

[Dojji]

Quality of competition at the big league level is at its weakest in April, when teams are still shaking down and finding out what's not working, and in September, when the rosters expand.

[Bellhorn04]

Quality of competition at the big league level is at its weakest in April, when teams are still shaking down and finding out what's not working, and in September, when the rosters expand.

 

That makes sense, as a generality. But if we're going to apply this to Webster or another starting pitcher, all we have to do is look at the box scores for the games pitched.

[Palodios]

There is a saying that goes something like never believe what you see in March or September. Webster lacks the mentality and the command of a major league starter. He has the stuff to dominate late innings if they limit his arsenal to two pitches.

 

I just took a look at his September schedule. He faced Zobrist, Longoria, Loney for Tampa, Hosmer, Butler, Cain for Kansas City, and Reyes, Cabrera, Bautista for Toronto. Baltimore was a bit understaffed, but he faced Cruz and a few others there as well. I don't think bad September logic applies here.

[Spudboy]

In any case he did show signs that he could control his pitches and even the game. Even if in small samples.

[Behindenemylines]

I kind of figured that Miller had priced himself out of coming back to Boston, but the $pankees. Hopefully, it was the beard that gave him strength to pitch so well and without the beard he goes back to the starter Miller who struggled to throw strikes.