The rebuild thread.

[Northern Star]

Victorino will have back surgery

 

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/11312314/shane-victorino-boston-red-sox-back-surgery

 

I posted a while back that I did not think that he would be back to contribute this season. But my assumption was based on what I knew of his hamstring injury.

 

Now the MRI shows a significant disc problem.

 

I have no idea how long rehab from such surgery is. I kind of doubt that he will contribute in 2015 now.

 

This sucks because the outfield continues to be a mess.

 

At this point I've written him off as a significant contributor. He just cannot stay on the field. A blessing in disguise I suppose as we had to find a successor by next year anyway.

[seabeachfred]

Guess who's not in the lineup again tonight.

 

Yeh jd, but if we know Farrell he will bend over backwards run through hell to get his kid Jackie back in that lineup tomorrow when we all know the guy should not only be benched, he should be sent down to Pawtucket post haste.

[Spudboy]

Well we got him that way and it may be the reason for the dropoff in production so we SHOULD let him rest.

 

Which begs the question.

 

Who did the pre-trade physical? Dr. Dolittle? Dr. Seuss?

 

I just don't get it ( I'm saying this with greater regularity recently! )

 

He rolled his ankle last season and has been a shadow of himself at the plate since. Did the Cards pull one over on the Sox? Did the Sox make an inaccurate assessment of the injury?

 

He tore tissue in his foot. It is my experience from many years of playing basketball and racing motorcycles that sprains ( if that is indeed what happened ) never go away.

 

Like a dislocated shoulder which pops out easier with each successive occurrence, sprained ankles happen with less provocation and never seem to go away.

 

I love the promise of Graig's offensive stats and his salary is not out of this world. But unless he recovers completely and regains his form he will be just like a prospect that could never seem to make it. Useless.

[jd98]

Yeh jd, but if we know Farrell he will bend over backwards run through hell to get his kid Jackie back in that lineup tomorrow when we all know the guy should not only be benched, he should be sent down to Pawtucket post haste.

 

Probably so. What I would do is Betts in CF, Cespedes in RF, Nava LF/Holt 3B vs righties and Holt LF/WMB 3B vs lefties. JBJ defensive sub. Worry about what to do with Craig when he gets back, somebody else may be hurt by then. That seems better than what ever the hell Farrell is doing.

[Spudboy]

Massachusetts is a consumer protection state. We have a Lemon Law.

 

Craig should be sent back to the Cards and new compensation should be made to the Sox!!!!!

[Northern Star]

Allen Craig Headed to the Disabled List With Ankle Injury

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2014/08/allen_craig_headed_to_the_disabled_list_with_ankle.html

 

Lol. Unbelievable.

 

I seem to remember the Pirates trading for Armando Rios and he broke his leg in his first game, out for the season.

[reYoukilis]

Which begs the question.

 

Who did the pre-trade physical? Dr. Dolittle? Dr. Seuss?

Well Im hoping they knew about the injury before they got him and hes more about next season.

I just don't get it ( I'm saying this with greater regularity recently! )

Me too but am hoping its all apart of some brilliant master plan. I think everything leads back to getting rid of Lester. Because Lester leaves Lackey wants out, something they didnt factor and had to take what they could get. Cards may have smelled desperation and knew they had the upper hand. Hopefully our gamble pays off but again it all leads back to the head scratcher of getting rid of Lester.

 

I agree with not paying too much for people over thirty, its a good rule....except if hes a part of the core of the team. Hopefully it will all be for not and he'll be back with us next season.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Jon Heyman is reporting that the Sox are going to make a very strong, aggressive push for Stanton this winter.

 

Can you imagine Stanton and Cespedes as your corner outfielders? My goodness.

[Palodios]

Jon Heyman is reporting that the Sox are going to make a very strong, aggressive push for Stanton this winter.

 

Can you imagine Stanton and Cespedes as your corner outfielders? My goodness.

 

It seems extremely unlikely to me now. They just traded very valuable pieces for Cespedes and Craig, so I believe they intend to start them. The Marlins also seem to think they're almost ready to contend. Stanton is a 2015 offseason target, not a 2014 target. Also, the Red Sox are not going to get two of Lester/Scherzer/Shields, so I think most of the expendable trade chips are going out in a pitcher trade. Namely, 2014 Cy Young Johnny Cueto.

[SoxFanForsyth]

It seems extremely unlikely to me now. They just traded very valuable pieces for Cespedes and Craig, so I believe they intend to start them. The Marlins also seem to think they're almost ready to contend. Stanton is a 2015 offseason target, not a 2014 target. Also, the Red Sox are not going to get two of Lester/Scherzer/Shields, so I think most of the expendable trade chips are going out in a pitcher trade. Namely, 2014 Cy Young Johnny Cueto.

 

Why aren't they going to get 2 of those pitchers again? They've got loads of money. And they've only got a few places to spend it.

 

I can see them working around Allen Craig to have Cespedes and Stanton in the lineup. Either trading Craig in the deal for Stanton, or potentially trading Napoli, since his deal is up in 2015 and a team can't offer a QO if they don't have him all year.

 

Just some ideas. Not saying these are better than other ideas, but if you told me I was going into 2015 with a rotation of Lester Shields Kelly Buch RDLR, and this lineup with Stanton in it? I'm good with that.

[Palodios]

Why aren't they going to get 2 of those pitchers again? They've got loads of money. And they've only got a few places to spend it.

 

I can see them working around Allen Craig to have Cespedes and Stanton in the lineup. Either trading Craig in the deal for Stanton, or potentially trading Napoli, since his deal is up in 2015 and a team can't offer a QO if they don't have him all year.

 

Firstly, there is no working around Craig. They bought low on him, they're not going to turn around and try to dump his contract. Napoli has been extremely productive so it seems silly to deal him.

 

Secondly, just because they have money doesn't mean they're going to spend like drunken sailors. Why sign Scherzer when you can get Hamels for half the price? It might cost 2-3 good prospects, but are 2-3 good prospects worth 100 million? I doubt it. This team's management likes to spend money... but on the right players, on their terms.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Firstly, there is no working around Craig. They bought low on him, they're not going to turn around and try to dump his contract. Napoli has been extremely productive so it seems silly to deal him.

 

Secondly, just because they have money doesn't mean they're going to spend like drunken sailors. Why sign Scherzer when you can get Hamels for half the price? It might cost 2-3 good prospects, but are 2-3 good prospects worth 100 million? I doubt it. This team's management likes to spend money... but on the right players, on their terms.

 

If you can get Hamels for 4/98 or Lester at 5/130 and keep your prospects, you get Lester, 10 times out of 10.

 

The thing the Sox are going to do is assess the FA market and the trade market. They're swimming in both dollars and prospects. The FA market is absolutely flush this year in SP, but bats are nearly impossible to come by on the FA market.

 

So, I would imagine they will attempt to fill the SP needs via dollars and fill any positional needs via trade. That would make sense. Why would you trade for a Cueto when you can sign a Shields? Cueto is younger, but you get him for 1 year then you're faced with the same delimma as you had w Lester.

 

If they want to sign Lester AND go after Hamels, I guess I could see that. I would love for them to stand pat on their offense, give Lester 5/25, trade for Hamels (WMB, JBJ, Ranaudo, and absorb the contract should get close - see: Price, David), then fill up the bullpen with Miller, Koji, Taz, Hochevar, Webster, Badenhop, and 1 more.

 

That would eat up most of that $75mm if they gave Koji a QO ($15mm), and gave Lester and Hamels $25mm each (or an average of that between them). Give Miller $7mm, Hochevar $5mm, and there is $77mm right there. Perfect. Now go win a WS.

[Palodios]

If you can get Hamels for 4/98 or Lester at 5/130 and keep your prospects, you get Lester, 10 times out of 10.

 

Lester should be Red Sox target #1. If you look at the pitching options and prices, durability, team compatibility, low prospect cost etc, Lester makes the most sense. I want Lester. The team wants Lester. Lester wants to be back. If they're spending big money on a free agent, I see no better option, unless Hanley or Scherzer somehow go for less money.

 

I don't think we should compare Hamels to Lester, for all of the reasons I mentioned above. However, a Hamels-Lester led rotation is probably the best option for this team. Imagine those guys in the playoffs -- they'll one-up eachother to the World Series with those playoff numbers. Hamels is expensive and old enough that he's probably available. Maybe the Red Sox could get him for Eduardo, Escobar, + 1 -- that barely scratches the farm system.

[example1]

I just don't see them spending to get Lester back. I would be happy if they did, I just don't see it happening. I can't argue with it. I have a hard time seeing contracts for guys 30+ that end up being successful. Yes, we can say that it would be successful if they won a World Series during that time, but is it really reasonable to base our view of Jon Lester's contract on whether David Ortiz hits an 8th inning 3 run homer to win a pivotal game? Jon Lester's contribution, no matter how great, would be only partially responsible for the World Series. There's a lot of luck involved in that.

 

If we want to try to remove the luck from it then we should look at what the pitcher controls, and what the pitcher controls is his performance when pitching. In that regard, Lester has performed very well over the past few years. He could still be very good over the next 6-7 years, but he would have to be producing at his current level through that time to warrant 20+ million a year. The Red Sox are one of the most valuable and prominent franchises in the world in any sport. I can understand why the Sox would think they can fill his role well before those 6-7 years are up, for much less money.

[reYoukilis]

I think hes worth it. You take a chance no matter what you do so why not take a chance on someone whose won the whole thing, 3 times, with the same team? Age I know but hes young enough to make a difference in the window weve got going on. Dont waste Papi's and Pedroias years always getting young. Sure the Red Sox may have to eat the last couple of seasons of a long contracts because hes getting up there in age but not necessarily. Even if hes less effective, with some solid younger arms in the mix he could put it together for some important games in the playoffs.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I just don't see them spending to get Lester back. I would be happy if they did, I just don't see it happening. I can't argue with it. I have a hard time seeing contracts for guys 30+ that end up being successful. Yes, we can say that it would be successful if they won a World Series during that time, but is it really reasonable to base our view of Jon Lester's contract on whether David Ortiz hits an 8th inning 3 run homer to win a pivotal game? Jon Lester's contribution, no matter how great, would be only partially responsible for the World Series. There's a lot of luck involved in that.

 

If we want to try to remove the luck from it then we should look at what the pitcher controls, and what the pitcher controls is his performance when pitching. In that regard, Lester has performed very well over the past few years. He could still be very good over the next 6-7 years, but he would have to be producing at his current level through that time to warrant 20+ million a year. The Red Sox are one of the most valuable and prominent franchises in the world in any sport. I can understand why the Sox would think they can fill his role well before those 6-7 years are up, for much less money.

 

I think they're in a situation where they are flush with cash and have literally nowhere else to spend it other than SP. Perhaps they go after Tulo and take on his salary, but if they do that, I don't think they trade for a SP because they don't want to completely empty their farm, and they still have $60mm to spend (Tulo amazingly only has an AAV of $15.775mm).

 

Then again, I'm curious about the package it would take to get Hamels. You could feasibly throw Middlebrooks, Ranaudo, and maybe JBJ at the Phillies and take on his full salary and be in good shape.

 

I don't know, it's easy to get carried away because there are literally so many options out there. But I do think we come down with Lester plus 1 very, very good pitcher (Hamels, Shields).

[Palodios]

The Red Sox claim that they want to be competitive in 2015. They need atleast two more top pitchers to do that. You can get one via trade, but giving up prospects for two top pitchers is going to hurt, so they will likely get one via free agency. Who's out there?

 

The best guys are Scherzer, Lester, Shields, Beckett, Peavy. Scherzer will cost twice as much as Lester. Shields will cost a ton, at a higher age. Beckett no. Peavy isn't an AL East pitcher.

 

The next group consists of dumpster dives with Brandon McCarthy, Justin Masterson, Wandy Rodriguez, Josh Johnson, Gavin Floyd, Josh Johnson Jorge De La Rosa. None of those guys have been good and healthy this year.

[a700hitter]

I don't think they have enough prospects to get 2 stud pitchers via trade. It would clean out the organization.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Yeah it's going to be Cole Hamels and Jon Lester.

 

That's going to be a very strong rotation, too. Lester - Hamels - Buch - Kelley - RDLR.

 

With the offense we now have (assuming Allen Craig's foot gets better), this team will be a contender in the AL East next year.

[Palodios]

Yeah it's going to be Cole Hamels and Jon Lester.

 

That's going to be a very strong rotation, too. Lester - Hamels - Buch - Kelley - RDLR.

 

With the offense we now have (assuming Allen Craig's foot gets better), this team will be a contender in the AL East next year.

 

If the Red Sox plan on building a competitive team, Lester/Hamels seems like the most likely scenario to me as well. The question is, what do the Phillies want for Hamels? They've constantly been reluctant to deal any of their guys. It might require the Red Sox to pick up a salary dump player in the process.

 

Ranaudo + Eduardo for Hamels/Papelbon? Eduardo + Ball for Hamels/Burnett ? I have no idea.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If the Red Sox plan on building a competitive team, Lester/Hamels seems like the most likely scenario to me as well. The question is, what do the Phillies want for Hamels? They've constantly been reluctant to deal any of their guys. It might require the Red Sox to pick up a salary dump player in the process.

 

Ranaudo + Eduardo for Hamels/Papelbon? Eduardo + Ball for Hamels/Burnett ? I have no idea.

 

They're not going to get much for a guy who is making $24mm a year, I'll tell you that.

 

Amaro is in love with Middlebrooks, so I can see him being in the deal. Eduardo, Middlebrooks, and JBJ could seal it.

[a700hitter]

The Phillies have COdy Asche and another MLB ready prospect to play 3B if Asche can't hold down the position. They have no need for a third base project. I agree that the Phils can't get a lot of talent in return for Hamels, but their asking price has been very high. It may be that if they can't get a major haul that they will keep him.

[Station 13]

They're not going to get much for a guy who is making $24mm a year, I'll tell you that.

 

Amaro is in love with Middlebrooks, so I can see him being in the deal. Eduardo, Middlebrooks, and JBJ could seal it.

 

None of these guys are worth much, not for an ace starter. We need a better centerpiece in that deal, like Owens. Then the Sox quickly back off. Rubin asked for all the Dodgers top 3 for Hammels.

[SoxFanForsyth]

None of these guys are worth much, not for an ace starter. We need a better centerpiece in that deal, like Owens. Then the Sox quickly back off. Rubin asked for all the Dodgers top 3 for Hammels.

 

No team is going to pay for Hamels twice. They'll either pay in prospects and get a lot of money in return, or pay in money and send over lower level prospects. That's how it works.

 

And look at what Price brought back. Pretty much garbage.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Phillies have COdy Asche and another MLB ready prospect to play 3B if Asche can't hold down the position. They have no need for a third base project. I agree that the Phils can't get a lot of talent in return for Hamels, but their asking price has been very high. It may be that if they can't get a major haul that they will keep him.

 

All I keep hearing is how much Amaro loves Middlebrooks, so I think he's going to be in that deal.

[Station 13]

No team is going to pay for Hamels twice. They'll either pay in prospects and get a lot of money in return, or pay in money and send over lower level prospects. That's how it works.

 

And look at what Price brought back. Pretty much garbage.

 

Yes but Price is under contract for 1 year. Hammels is already signed to a deal that takes him to age 34. Price next contract will take him to his late 30s. The Hammels contract is much more appealing. If it cost us Owens, would you deal?

[a700hitter]

When Craig turned his ankle in his first game, my first thought was that he might miss significant time. Afterward, I thought about whether the Sox had checked out the ankle. Our medical staff seems to miss a lot of obvious conditions.

 

The more that I think about it I am more convinced that his down performance is directly related to the condition of his ankle. Ankle injuries can be devastating. Fred and Spud and maybe a couple of others remember Tommy Davis. He was a big prospect for the Brooklyn Dodgers who hit the majors with a splash in LA. He was a fleet footed OFer with all the tools. One season in the early 1960's, hit .340 or 350 and knocked in something like 150 runs. The next season he broke his ankle. He played for about 10 more seasons, but he never again approached being the player he had been before the injury. He could hit enough to keep a job, but he became a liability in the field. He became a journeyman playing for the White Sox, Mets, Orioles and A's and maybe some others. Prior to his injury Craig did not have the gifts that Tommy Davis had. 2014 may not be an off year for Craig. It may be his new norm.

[a700hitter]

No team is going to pay for Hamels twice. They'll either pay in prospects and get a lot of money in return, or pay in money and send over lower level prospects. That's how it works.

 

Then Amaro will keep him. That is how it will work if he doesn't get a major haul.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Then Amaro will keep him. That is how it will work if he doesn't get a major haul.

 

Disagree. 100 times disagree. The Phillies are going to have a fire sale this winter, count on it. And Hamels will be the first piece to go.

 

If the Phillies eat some money, I'll send over some prospects.

[Palodios]

Then Amaro will keep him. That is how it will work if he doesn't get a major haul.

 

I agree. Hamels is actually worth the contract he has, so the Red Sox will need to overpay in prospects, or take some money back in a trade. Ruiz/Burnett/Papelbon make some sense here, and with that kind of trade, the Phillies can get out of payroll hell, minus Howard.

 

Those players also fill holes for the Red Sox, and are only short-term salaries to take on.