The rebuild thread.

[Spudboy]

No chance, and that is a bad team. De La Rosa has shown he deserves to be a starter in 2015. Webster has not. One of the good things about this market is the fan pressure (and economic pressure) will force the front office to still be aggressive. Fans should not tolerate a full out rebuild, certainly not at the prices they get charged.

 

Amen.

[curiousd]

I think we are going to something like the pre - Duquette era...the Sox would be pretty bad year after year but we could enjoy baseball anytime someone beat the Yanks. SOoooo,,,,,,I root for the fruition of the Orioles -Red Sox trade rumors.......If we sell Lester to the O's, even if we don't get equal value back we would be sticking it to the Yankees in 2015. Yeah?! Hoorah??

[BigPapi]

I'm not really a prospect expert. Swap him with Bundy or another top pitching prospect from a contender if you'd like.

 

 

 

Maybe, maybe not. Teams like Oakland and Tampa have gone the route of using a rotation of entirely top-end pitching prospects, and it has gone well for them. It also means there will be plenty of money in the organization to fill the gaps.

 

But you actually might be right. Dodgers said they could see him in the bigs next year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lester has been scratched from today's start. Let the rumors fly

[Orange Juiced]

From McAdam: "Intriguingly, the Pirates have also had some interest in some of the Red Sox available relievers with a particular focus on Andrew Miller. If the Sox were willing to expand the deal and trade both Miller and Lester, it's possible they could land both Bell and Meadows, or at least one of the top tier prospects and others from the Pittsburgh system." (see: http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/lester-scratch-makes-sense-trade-appears-imminent)

 

The Sox are almost certainly not re-signing Miller - he will cost a ton in the offseason as a FA. So may as well deal him too. To get back both Bell and Meadows would be incredible. See here for a closer look at these two guys. Two top prospects, both OF (which the Sox need), both terrific hitters.

[Palodios]

My guess is that the Red Sox already have the book on Austin Meadows, having passed on him in the 2013 draft. Who knows if that helps or hurts his chances of coming here -- but it does mean they probably know plenty about him.

[sk7326]

I imagine if it is Pittsburgh, their first call might be for Jameson Taillon, their best pitching prospect who is on the tommy john shelf.

[Dojji]

I think we'll all aware of this but let's lay it out there. The run is over, our last hurrah was 2013, and I'm glad we won it all then. We got a little lucky in 13, we're getting unlucky at the same rate this year, but "normal" for this team doesn't look like a playoff berth to me. Looking at the talent on the roster, even with everyone healthy, the team composition averages out to something in the 81-85 win region and it's not going to get better as players age.

 

IMHO there is nothing we can do to salvage 2015, if by that you mean the team needs to expect to win the World Series. Same in 2016. Those years will be spent mixing and matching and hoping the kids grow into good enough players in their roles that we can build a winner around them. The big moves happen again in the 2016-2017 offseason. That being the case, everyone that you can get a deal for has to be on the block, including all the sacred cows. Yes that means Pedroia. Everything you can do to set the team up for 2017, you have to do. We no longer have the dynamic hitting and thanks to the complete collapse of Buchholz, the failure of Doubront to make a meaningful step forward, and the youngsters being too inexperienced to count on, the pitching continues to be not quite good enough as well.

 

I don't think we need to go full bore Houston tank mode. We can field a team that wins a game or two as we watch for the prospects to come into their own. But if they do choose to do that I'm going to understand exactly why. Sometimes even for the big markets, enough things go wrong (or simply don't go right) at the same time and you spend some time in the cellar before things get better. My opinion is the next couple years will look like that.

 

But god almighty, could we please have ONE SINGLE PROSPECT not turn into a complete dog turd at the slightest excuse? Just one? Maybe? We really, really need to turn over our minor league development team and get some better ideas down there.

[redsoxrules]

WTF, this team has a lot of money to play with next year and beyond. There's no reason why this team can't compete again next year.

[Dojji]

I can think of some good ones. The team is old, the core is the oldest part of the team, the only relatively young core player is injury prone due to his lack of size, their holes tend to be in areas that are tough to replace, there are very few players on this roster ou can count on to produce from year to year even leaving age completely out of the discussion, the youngsters have regressed en masse, and most teams have enough money to re-sign anyone they want to keep so the pickings in the free agent market are slim and getting slimmer.

 

Money just isn't enough anymore.

[Palodios]

If Lester was resigned, the rotation is still good. Lester, Lackey, De la Rosa, veteran, Owens/Ranaudo/Webster is a pretty solid group.

Tazawa is still around long term, Uehara will probably get a qualifying offer and come back for the $15 million. The rest of the bullpen is a crapshoot, but it always is.

 

Pedroia, Ortiz, Victorino, Napoli are aging, but they haven't exactly missed big chunks of time over their careers. Add a bat like Hanley , Tulo or Stanton and the offensive dynamic really changes. There has to be a good bat in Xander, Betts, Bradley, WMB, it just might take a few more months to find it.

 

I see plenty of potential, and there is plenty of money to get there. Losing Lester would be the real problem.

[Dojji]

I think we can operate under the assumption that lester is gone.

[Palodios]

I think we can operate under the assumption that lester is gone.

 

I'm not completely ruling out the option of the trade-and-sign. Lester is willing to do it, and it makes a lot of sense for the team.

[Bellhorn04]

There's also talk that Lackey could be dealt, of course.

[seabeachfred]

I think we'll all aware of this but let's lay it out there. The run is over, our last hurrah was 2013, and I'm glad we won it all then. We got a little lucky in 13, we're getting unlucky at the same rate this year, but "normal" for this team doesn't look like a playoff berth to me. Looking at the talent on the roster, even with everyone healthy, the team composition averages out to something in the 81-85 win region and it's not going to get better as players age.

 

IMHO there is nothing we can do to salvage 2015, if by that you mean the team needs to expect to win the World Series. Same in 2016. Those years will be spent mixing and matching and hoping the kids grow into good enough players in their roles that we can build a winner around them. The big moves happen again in the 2016-2017 offseason. That being the case, everyone that you can get a deal for has to be on the block, including all the sacred cows. Yes that means Pedroia. Everything you can do to set the team up for 2017, you have to do. We no longer have the dynamic hitting and thanks to the complete collapse of Buchholz, the failure of Doubront to make a meaningful step forward, and the youngsters being too inexperienced to count on, the pitching continues to be not quite good enough as well.

 

I don't think we need to go full bore Houston tank mode. We can field a team that wins a game or two as we watch for the prospects to come into their own. But if they do choose to do that I'm going to understand exactly why. Sometimes even for the big markets, enough things go wrong (or simply don't go right) at the same time and you spend some time in the cellar before things get better. My opinion is the next couple years will look like that.

 

But god almighty, could we please have ONE SINGLE PROSPECT not turn into a complete dog turd at the slightest excuse? Just one? Maybe? We really, really need to turn over our minor league development team and get some better ideas down there.

 

Somewhere between Portland and Boston it seems many of our prospects fall back or simply stagnate. We haven't really put a solid position rookie player successfully in the lineup since 2007 with Ellsbury who is now gone because we didn't want to pay him either. But that is for another argument. The fact is we guessed totally wrong on Bradley. The kid simply cannot hit. Oh, he will get us excited with a good few games but it's back in the hole for another couple of weeks. We may have guessed wrong on Bogaerts as well. He simply stinks with runners on base and he isn't a very good fielder as of yet either. WMB has regressed somewhat mainly because he can't stay healthy. On the farm we have Swihart, Cecchini, Betts for position spots but after seeing Bog and Brad puke up, who knows? Something is very wrong somewhere in the organization and thank God the gods of fate were with us last season when we stole a title.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lou Merloni had a good take on EEI a week or so ago. Gone are the days of guys actually being ready for the bigs and in are the days of rushing anyone with a bat to the plate in Fenway. It almost seems as if a player just needs to dominate High A ball and start off hot in AA and all of a sudden, you're on the bigs. That's not how it is supposed to work. Bradley needed a full AAA season. Betts needed another full minor league season on top of this one. WMB was rushed a little. Bogaerts was rushed a lot. You have to let the kids be ready to ascend. That was how you won in 2007. It seemed like every season you were bringing up prospect after prospect who didn't need to go back to the minors. Lester, Buchholz, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Bard, etc. Then, the kids you were bringing up were flailing. Don't rush them, let them learn the game at their pace and they'll avoid the dreaded bus back to Pawtucket.

[Spudboy]

Let's hope that Betts and Swihart remain in the minors for at least one full season in AAA. Vasquez was brought up out of need but he is probably not ready either.

 

The jump from AAA to MLB pitching is substantial. The pitchers in the bigs have much better secondary pitches and command so a young hitter is less likely to see a mistake to hit. I'm no expert by any means. But we have witnessed young hitters struggling when promoted a lot in the recent past.

[Palodios]

Looking like Doubront is about to be traded to Theo.

 

My 2015 expectations: 3.50 ERA, 215 IP.

[sk7326]

Lou Merloni had a good take on EEI a week or so ago. Gone are the days of guys actually being ready for the bigs and in are the days of rushing anyone with a bat to the plate in Fenway. It almost seems as if a player just needs to dominate High A ball and start off hot in AA and all of a sudden, you're on the bigs. That's not how it is supposed to work. Bradley needed a full AAA season. Betts needed another full minor league season on top of this one. WMB was rushed a little. Bogaerts was rushed a lot. You have to let the kids be ready to ascend. That was how you won in 2007. It seemed like every season you were bringing up prospect after prospect who didn't need to go back to the minors. Lester, Buchholz, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Bard, etc. Then, the kids you were bringing up were flailing. Don't rush them, let them learn the game at their pace and they'll avoid the dreaded bus back to Pawtucket.

 

There is some truth there, but some revisionism too. Pedroia flailed - very badly in his callup. The thing was that management - this was where Epstein and Francona were great - trusted their evaluation and rode things out. Kids need reps - but some of those can be big league reps if it's the right guy. Bogaerts in his callup last season showed evidence that he was that sort of guy. Where the post-Francona/Epstein version of the management team has screwed up is by being very very reactionary to short term blips. Anointing Jackie Bradley due to a hot spring, and then choosing Grady Sizemore over him using the same evidence. I defended the Drew signing as the best way to solve 3B in Middlebrooks' absence - but I was wrong there. Certainly putting Bogaerts in some sort of rotation with replacement level fodder (like Herrera when he was here) was extremely counterproductive. Promoting kids aggressively is fine - it is part of your evaluation of the kid, and both Bogaerts and Bradley have gobbled up promotions in short order - but you can't promote a guy aggressively and then panic and act surprised when the kid is getting his sea legs.

[Palodios]

Going on at the same time:

 

Lester to O's, in progress.

Doubront to Cubs, official.

 

Related? Unrelated?

[Spudboy]

Pal would you please tell me your source for this info? I watch the boston.com and ESPN Boston sights but they are way behind on breaking developments.

 

Thanks!

[Palodios]

Pal would you please tell me your source for this info? I watch the boston.com and ESPN Boston sights but they are way behind on breaking developments.

 

Thanks!

 

mlbtraderumors.com is usually up to date.

[Palodios]

Sounds like a PTBNL for Doubront. Seems harsh for a pitched who has been very solid, and hasn't hit arbitration yet.

[Bellhorn04]

Sounds like a PTBNL for Doubront. Seems harsh for a pitched who has been very solid, and hasn't hit arbitration yet.

 

He killed his value this year - horrible numbers, and seemingly confirmation of a lousy work ethic and attitude.

[Jasonbay44]

I'm honestly just glad Doubront is off the roster. I cannot stand him

[d-money]

Wish they would get rid of suckholz as well.I just want all the garbage out.I didnt have Lester as part of the garbage

[Jasonbay44]

I can't believe this team went from World series champions to selling off Jon Lester at trade deadline next season.. This is ridiculous.

[Spudboy]

mlbtraderumors.com is usually up to date.

 

Thanks. I just figured that out!! Lol.

[Spudboy]

He killed his value this year - horrible numbers, and seemingly confirmation of a lousy work ethic and attitude.

 

I'm sure that Theo is well aware of his less than dedicated mindset. I wonder who the PTBNL will be?

 

There was a point about 3-4 years ago when Doubront was seen as having the best stuff in the organization. I think that the Sox signed him when he was very young. Something like 16 y.o. In any case, the kid is immature and just does not get it when it comes to the commitment it takes to be a successful MLB pitcher.

 

Showing up to ST overweight was only one example of this. Bitching about his recent demotion was another.

 

I'm glad that he is gone. I just wonder in the face of this fire sale of starting pitchers, who will be in the rotation for the rest of this year and even more importantly, who will fill those slots for 2015 and forward.

[jacksonianmarch]

If the Cubs get Doubront to buy in and he can reach his potential, he's a potential #2 starter with his mix of solid breaking ball and heat. I honestly think this is one of those change of scenery decisions that will decidedly work out better for Felix.