6/14 Red Sox VS Indians

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

You forgot hitting with RISP------you conveniently left that out.

He left it out because it's silly and irrelevant.

 

I know you keep ignoring posts like this, but persistence might pay off one day!

[Spudboy]

Fred I fully agree that Bradley has huge problems at the plate. And there does not seem to be any improvement. I say he needs to be back in AAA to get that sorted out.

 

But in the meantime, who will fill his position?????? Not Sizemore!!!!!!

 

 

Therein lies the problem. The team has too many week spots and no one person that can take his place and be more productive.

[seabeachfred]

He left it out because it's silly and irrelevant.

 

I know you keep ignoring posts like this, but persistence might pay off one day!

 

When you say that Ellsbury it makes me wonder how much baseball you played, and no doubt that you never coached the sport and watched players perform. I think that's a given, but here's some insight. There are players who you can tell that relish the thought of going up to the plate when things are in crisis mode; they live for that. There are others who alter their swings, get nervous, and lose concentration because of those things. And they cannot perform because of the pressure. Some improve in that category with experience and increased confidence----and there are those whose problem in that field will only continue and get worse. I'd suggest you go talk to a high school or community college coach and ask him that. It will be you who will learn something.

[seabeachfred]

Fred I fully agree that Bradley has huge problems at the plate. And there does not seem to be any improvement. I say he needs to be back in AAA to get that sorted out.

 

But in the meantime, who will fill his position?????? Not Sizemore!!!!!!

 

 

Therein lies the problem. The team has too many week spots and no one person that can take his place and be more productive.

 

When Victorino gets back you put him out there and risk a little defense for a whole lot more of offense---which I think we need a little more of right now. Bradley cannot catch up to a good fastball......that has to be obvious to anyone who knows the game and has a good pair of eyes, and he cannot judge the low curve as being a strike or a ball and he swings at it. What's worse, he cannot hit that pitch either. IMHO, Bradley will never hit for the Red Sox and it is f utile to keep running him out there. As soon as Vic comes back Jackie has to be sent down.

[Spudboy]

When I asked who will replace Bradley I did not consider Victorino.

 

This is because I don't believe that Victorino will be able to stay on the field and in the lineup for sustained stretches this season. He is part of the problem with this team. I don't see how he will be part of a solution.

 

I think that we are stuck with Bradley in Center for the duration of this season.

 

I just wonder why he seems to have regressed rather than improved his hitting. He used to hit ropes to the opposite field. Now he just strikes out or hits dribblers to the right side. Why can't the Sox coaching staff help make him a better hitter now?

 

I do not agree that Bradley will never be able to hit MLB pitching. This may be true eventually. Now, it is a little early to make that conclusion. His poor hitting is a lot more noticeable because of the overall failure of this team's offense. This is why we are harping on him being the problem rather than him being just one of many problems contributing to overall ineptitude.

[NativeBostonian]

When I asked who will replace Bradley I did not consider Victorino.

 

This is because I don't believe that Victorino will be able to stay on the field and in the lineup for sustained stretches this season. He is part of the problem with this team. I don't see how he will be part of a solution.

 

I think that we are stuck with Bradley in Center for the duration of this season.

 

I just wonder why he seems to have regressed rather than improved his hitting. He used to hit ropes to the opposite field. Now he just strikes out or hits dribblers to the right side. Why can't the Sox coaching staff help make him a better hitter now?

 

I do not agree that Bradley will never be able to hit MLB pitching. This may be true eventually. Now, it is a little early to make that conclusion. His poor hitting is a lot more noticeable because of the overall failure of this team's offense. This is why we are harping on him being the problem rather than him being just one of many problems contributing to overall ineptitude.

I think if the Red Sox stay in the race up until the trade deadline, they'll be looking for a fix to our center-field problems outside of the Red Sox system: if there is one out there. The Red Sox really dug themselves into a big hole this off season when they didn't get a sure backup for Bradley. Thinking you can replace the productiveness of Elsbury with a rookie and a guy who hasn't played in two years was being foolish.

[Spudboy]

I think if the Red Sox stay in the race up until the trade deadline, they'll be looking for a fix to our center-field problems outside of the Red Sox system: if there is one out there. The Red Sox really dug themselves into a big hole this off season when they didn't get a sure backup for Bradley. Thinking you can replace the productiveness of Elsbury with a rookie and a guy who hasn't played in two years was being foolish.

 

Well they just dumped Sizemore so we don't have to think about him anymore.

 

I agree that the Sox misplayed the center field position this year. Although I believe that Bradley may come around offensively eventually, I suspect it won't be soon or nearly enough.

 

I don't think that the Sox will be able to capture a playoff spot this year unless they make some bold and expensive moves. I don't see that happening, either.

[seabeachfred]

Spud, you were right about not considering Victorino because he can't stay on the field this year. I did in because right now we are in desperation city and need some offense. As for why Jackie isn't hitting, you've heard about the Pitcher's Union haven't you? Word on hitter's weaknesses get around very quickly and it seems they have now a solid book on Jackie and that is why he's not getting too many pitches to hit ropes to the opposite field except on mistakes. As for the coaches, I think they are doing all they can to help him but it appears he has some real weaknesses that he hasn't been able to work out. With Jackie and Ross and others at the bottom of the order not contributing, in my opinion it creates a ripple effect throughout the lineup and puts added pressure on guys like Napoli, Ortiz and Pedroia to carry most of the load. It can wear an offense down.

[Spudboy]

Still there is no tangible reason for Pedroia and Poopie to be flailing this way. I have suspected the hand injury with Pedroia but who knows? Poopie is hitting about .250

 

I realize that "batting average is meaningless" ( lol ) now but it sure would be nice to see our biggest and loudest hitter actually hit. That would drive in some runs, wouldn't it?

[a700hitter]

Bradley has been so bad that his father cringes at every mention of Jr. by an announcer.

[Spudboy]

I for one do not understand why he is referred to as Jr.

 

It's not like his Father is Ken Griffey.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

When you say that Ellsbury it makes me wonder how much baseball you played, and no doubt that you never coached the sport and watched players perform. I think that's a given, but here's some insight. There are players who you can tell that relish the thought of going up to the plate when things are in crisis mode; they live for that. There are others who alter their swings, get nervous, and lose concentration because of those things. And they cannot perform because of the pressure. Some improve in that category with experience and increased confidence----and there are those whose problem in that field will only continue and get worse. I'd suggest you go talk to a high school or community college coach and ask him that. It will be you who will learn something.

So in other words you can't actually prove its existence, you're just going to call jock superiority.

[seabeachfred]

So in other words you can't actually prove its existence, you're just going to call jock superiority.

 

Thirty years of coaching baseball.....you're God damn right I can prove its existence because I saw it year in and year out. Some players perform well under pressure and some do not. That is not a supposition, that is a fact and if you did more than spend time on the spread sheets and sabermetrics nonsense you would know that for a fact too. Get your ass down to a high school and college coach and ask them. In fact talk to a number of coaches and find out for yourself because by your replies to me I am now more than convinced that you didn't that much baseball, certainly into your high school years and you sure as hell never coached a team, otherwise you wouldn't keep up with that ******** you're trying to hand me.

[Navafan29]

Thirty years of coaching baseball.....you're God damn right I can prove its existence because I saw it year in and year out. Some players perform well under pressure and some do not. That is not a supposition, that is a fact and if you did more than spend time on the spread sheets and sabermetrics nonsense you would know that for a fact too. Get your ass down to a high school and college coach and ask them. In fact talk to a number of coaches and find out for yourself because by your replies to me I am now more than convinced that you didn't that much baseball, certainly into your high school years and you sure as hell never coached a team, otherwise you wouldn't keep up with that ******** you're trying to hand me.

 

It's worth noting that one of the problems with the sabermetrics studies trying to disprove clutch hitting is that they'll define clutch as something like "hitting with 2 outs and RISP" and look at hitters' average when in that situation, even though that is not always a clutch situation. A lot of the time there's 2 outs and RISP, your team has a comfortable lead so it's not actually a pressure situation. So these studies can sometimes end up with half clutch situations and half non-clutch, making them inaccurate. Also, if your team is one run down in the 9th with the bases loaded and you're batting, but your team is terrible and out of the playoff race, that's not so much a pressure/clutch situation because it doesn't matter much whether your team wins or loses. So there's much more to studying clutch than looking at hitters' stats with men on base versus their stats without.

Edited June 18, 2014 by Navafan29

[Bellhorn04]

It's worth noting that one of the problems with the sabermetrics studies trying to disprove clutch hitting is that they'll define clutch as something like "hitting with 2 outs and RISP" and look at hitters' average when in that situation, even though that is not always a clutch situation. A lot of the time there's 2 outs and RISP, your team has a comfortable lead so it's not actually a pressure situation. So these studies can sometimes end up with half clutch situations and half non-clutch, making them inaccurate. Also, if your team is one run down in the 9th with the bases loaded and you're batting, but your team is terrible and out of the playoff race, that's not so much a pressure/clutch situation because it doesn't matter much whether your team wins or loses. So there's much more to studying clutch than looking at hitters' stats with men on base versus their stats without.

 

So how would you set about trying to identify who the clutch hitters are, supported by stats?

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Thirty years of coaching baseball.....you're God damn right I can prove its existence because I saw it year in and year out. Some players perform well under pressure and some do not. That is not a supposition, that is a fact and if you did more than spend time on the spread sheets and sabermetrics nonsense you would know that for a fact too. Get your ass down to a high school and college coach and ask them. In fact talk to a number of coaches and find out for yourself because by your replies to me I am now more than convinced that you didn't that much baseball, certainly into your high school years and you sure as hell never coached a team, otherwise you wouldn't keep up with that ******** you're trying to hand me.

Your eyes don't mean anything to me, sorry. And they sure as hell don't qualify as hard evidence. Neither do the eyes and opinions of some huckleberry high school coach somewhere. Either get on with proving it, or shut your hole. When you claim jock superiority like this, all you're doing is establishing yourself as a mindless drone with no original material to your name.

[Navafan29]

So how would you set about trying to identify who the clutch hitters are, supported by stats?

 

I guess to figure out whether a hitter is clutch or not, I would take their ABs that meet all of the following criteria:

-Runner(s) are in scoring position

-Their team is between 4 runs down and 1 run ahead

-At the time of the AB, the team has a calculated 20% or greater chance to make the postseason.

 

Take the hitter's average, OBP, slugging, and pitches seen per AB stats from these ABs. Instead of comparing these to their career numbers, compare to their career numbers excluding these ABs (we don't watch the clutch ABs contaminating the normal ABs). Now see if you notice any differences.

 

Optional: Do a similar study for that player in the postseason.

 

Edit: The 20% postseason chance thing may be a little high but whatev you get the idea.

Edited June 18, 2014 by Navafan29

[Bellhorn04]

I guess to figure out whether a hitter is clutch or not, I would take their ABs that meet all of the following criteria:

-Runner(s) are in scoring position

-Their team is between 4 runs down and 1 run ahead

-At the time of the AB, the team has a calculated 20% or greater chance to make the postseason.

 

Take the hitter's average, OBP, slugging, and pitches seen per AB stats from these ABs. Instead of comparing these to their career numbers, compare to their career numbers excluding these ABs (we don't watch the clutch ABs contaminating the normal ABs). Now see if you notice any differences.

 

Optional: Do a similar study for that player in the postseason.

 

Edit: The 20% postseason chance thing may be a little high but whatev you get the idea.

 

Do it man, do it.

[Navafan29]

Do it man, do it.

 

LOL to figure out whether or not clutch hitting exists in general, you'd have to do my study for at least 100 players with a good enough sample size of normal ABs and clutch ABs. Highly doubt anyone has done this or ever will feel like it, so I don't think we'll ever know for sure whether clutch is real or not. I guess we'll just have to tell by watching tons of games.