The Jon Lester contract situation

[sk7326]

Lester had 1 bad season. Other than that he has been a 20 million/year pitcher since 2008. I like Lesters build, he probably will be effective until his middle 30's. My only concern is the guy has had zero injury problems. This is normally a great thing but you have to wonder at some point in a 5 year contract if he will need TJS. It's a gamble, but for a guy like Lester,a proven 1A who takes it up to 1 level in the postseason, I pay him. 5 at 100, or maybe 6/110 gets this thing done.

 

Mechanics have always been good from a low injury perspective - not a violent delivery. At some point you have to respect his ability to eat up innings and treat it as a trait. Yes, a long term deal you are probably paying for a #3/4 starter in Year 5. But the Red Sox can afford to do that, especially if years 1-3 are as fruitful as one expects.

[seabeachfred]

Fans will get ugly if he follows the same decline of former LHP horses such as CC and Santana. That and what are the odds he stay's a top of the rotation SP for the duration of the deal? How many mid 30's guys are out there right now you'd consider 1 or a 2? Lee comes to mind. But there are not many. Listen I'm not against extending Lester. I'm just saying the chances of them letting him go are higher and more understandable then many believe and I won't be surprised or overly surprised if that happens.

 

It could happen the way you envision it BSN but unlike Tampa Bay we do not have a stable full of young pitchers ready to step in and take over. Sure, I give Renaudo and Owens a very good chance of coming through for us, but we should already know that two other guys many here and in the front office had high hope for like Webster and Delarosa are fast proving what duds they are. As for Barnes, who really knows about him except that he is once again injured. How dependable will he be down the road? Lackey and Peavy are getting up in years, we don't know if Doubrant is going to emerge or regress and Buchholz is usually one arm around his daughter or one slip near the dugout from going on a three month hiatus No my friend we need Lester and we have to resign him.

[MANNYHOF24]

Has anyone else realized how good the contract situation for Clay Buchholz is for the Red Sox? He is going to make 7.5 this season, 12 next season and then the team holds 13 and 13.5 million dollar options for 2016-2017 and can control him through his age 32 season at a relatively cheap price. One of Theo's finest contracts.

[Palodios]

Has anyone else realized how good the contract situation for Clay Buchholz is for the Red Sox? He is going to make 7.5 this season, 12 next season and then the team holds 13 and 13.5 million dollar options for 2016-2017 and can control him through his age 32 season at a relatively cheap price. One of Theo's finest contracts.

 

He did a fine job with all of the core's contracts -- Buch, Lester, Pedroia, Youk, Ortiz. Its a shame he never found common ground with Ells.

[jacksonianmarch]

Seriously, everyone who says CC is in some death spiral decline is making a fool out of themselves. He had one bad year coming off elbow surgery. How is that a decline? So Lester declined in 2012, but magically reappeared? It shows a general lack of baseball intellect. If he does it two yrs in a row, then you've got something. But one bad year does not a decline make

[SoxSport]

Buchholz won't be worth his salary if he doesn't show some durability this year.

We'll see how he comes out of ST.

[Palodios]

Jacko, eventually the declining fastball will catch up to him. He has been topping out at 88 in ST. It isn't over for him, but he has been slowing.

[Bellhorn04]

Seriously, everyone who says CC is in some death spiral decline is making a fool out of themselves. He had one bad year coming off elbow surgery. How is that a decline? So Lester declined in 2012, but magically reappeared? It shows a general lack of baseball intellect. If he does it two yrs in a row, then you've got something. But one bad year does not a decline make

 

Speaking only for myself, some of it is probably wishful thinking. But Sabathia's innings load has been huge. 2,900 major league innings including postseason.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree. His innings load has been insane. That being said, the guy had been the balls up until last yr. Even with diminished velocity, his first half last yr was good. He started to get his velo back in the second half and he couldn't locate it. He has the stuff to handle diminished velocity, he just needs to locate. I have a feeling a lot of people on this site will be eating crow on the Sabathia topic come the end of 2014

[jacksonianmarch]

Jacko, eventually the declining fastball will catch up to him. He has been topping out at 88 in ST. It isn't over for him, but he has been slowing.

 

He's topping out at 88 in his first start of the spring. Feliz is topping out at 90 in his first run through as well. Velocity early on is pretty useless. My guess is CC will be around the 90-91 he was at for most of 2013. His problem last yr was not the velocity. In his first two months, he posted a 3.71ERA with 71K's, 10BB in 80IP. And if you remember, his first 2 months last yr, he barely broke 90. By the end of the season, he was sitting 92 or so and topping out higher and he couldn't locate.

[rjortiz]

Jacko does a thrust dance, when he pumps his elbows toward his pelvis, and shifts to the left.

[sk7326]

He's topping out at 88 in his first start of the spring. Feliz is topping out at 90 in his first run through as well. Velocity early on is pretty useless. My guess is CC will be around the 90-91 he was at for most of 2013. His problem last yr was not the velocity. In his first two months, he posted a 3.71ERA with 71K's, 10BB in 80IP. And if you remember, his first 2 months last yr, he barely broke 90. By the end of the season, he was sitting 92 or so and topping out higher and he couldn't locate.

 

CC's dropoff has been a major thorn for NYY since so much of their pitching relied on him being 2009 good. With Tanaka in the fold and Nova's peripherals starting to match his W/L numbers, the rotation has a much better chance to be competitive against restaurant quality opposition. But CC has to get back to being some form of an anchor there too. Nobody expects 2009 to come back, but at least getting back to 2012 Sabathia.

[Dojji]

Sabathia is a durable, intelligent pitcher, you don't get to 200 innings every year and ace type numbers nearly every year without both.

 

I wouldn't count him out any more than we should have counted out Teflon Jon after 2012. Guys like that don't just dry up and blow away forever after one mediocre campaign. I think we can count on Sabathia to figure something out, and even if he doesn't, if he still logs the big innings he's still a pitching asset, not a liability. Lackey figured it out last year, and he's less talented and not nearly as smart.

Edited March 7, 2014 by Dojji

[redsoxrules]

Logging 200 IP isn't any good or an asset if your ERA is close to 5

[SoxSport]

CC has been on the decline for awhile now. Logged a lot of miles in NY. King Felix may also be declining a bit. His heat is down.

[jacksonianmarch]

CC has been on the decline for awhile now. Logged a lot of miles in NY. King Felix may also be declining a bit. His heat is down.

 

WTF are you talking about? I think I need to be considered an educator here, maybe I can get a tax break.

 

In 2012, he posted the lowest WHIP of his Yankee career and had a near identical ERA to his 2009 campaign. In 2011, he posted a 3.00ERA, his lowest in the AL in his career. How the f*** is that a decline "for awhile now"?

[Station 13]

Logging 200 IP isn't any good or an asset if your ERA is close to 5

 

Unless you're a 5th starter, any team will take that.

[Dojji]

Logging 200 IP isn't any good or an asset if your ERA is close to 5

 

you are incorrect. he wasn't worth his contract, but putting up his innings is still a surprisingly important skill, if you don't have a durable rotation it puts undue strain on your bullpen.

 

Think man. there's a reason Tim wakefield had a job all those years.

[redsoxrules]

you are incorrect. he wasn't worth his contract, but putting up his innings is still a surprisingly important skill, if you don't have a durable rotation it puts undue strain on your bullpen.

 

Think man. there's a reason Tim wakefield had a job all those years.

 

If your 5 starters log 200 ip with an ERA of 5 your In last place.

 

I'd prefer someone logging 175 with an ERA of 3-3.50

[sk7326]

CC has been on the decline for awhile now. Logged a lot of miles in NY. King Felix may also be declining a bit. His heat is down.

 

King Felix was one of the two best pitchers in the AL last season. Stop.

 

CC IS declining, but a decline from "league's best" to "solid rotation guy" is not a big deal. Sabathia's 2012 is plenty achievable. The problem was that the Yankees' rotation depended on him being his 2009 form, which is too big a burden for him to carry. With Tanaka and a legitimately good Nova, that might be somewhat alleviated now.

 

Obviously 200 IP with a 5 ERA is not good, and a rotation of those is a bad thing. But a 200 IP guy with a meh ERA is very very valuable over a 6 month haul - if nothing else to keep a pitching staff from being destroyed. DiceK in 2008 had a lovely ERA, but his sheer inability to pitch into games made his starts unnecessarily hard on the pitching staff.

[sk7326]

If your 5 starters log 200 ip with an ERA of 5 your In last place.

 

I'd prefer someone logging 175 with an ERA of 3-3.50

 

Assuming 30 starts, you are talking about a guy who cannot get into the 7th inning in most of his outings. That sounds good in isolation, but that just murders your pitching staff over the long haul.

 

The Red Sox bullpen was good this past season - but a lot of that had to do with their starters, including Dempster - preventing them from having to do excessively heavy lifting.

[Behindenemylines]

Lester is durable, lefty, home grown and has a lot of success in the AL East. Based on his statement that he wants to stay in Boston and would take less to do so this extension will get done.

[Spitball]

WTF are you talking about? I think I need to be considered an educator here, maybe I can get a tax break.

 

In 2012, he posted the lowest WHIP of his Yankee career and had a near identical ERA to his 2009 campaign. In 2011, he posted a 3.00ERA, his lowest in the AL in his career. How the f*** is that a decline "for awhile now"?

 

I don't think that was a WTF comment. There is validity there.

 

His average velocity from 2007 through 2011 was pretty consistently near or above 94 MPH. In 2012, it dropped to about 92.4. In 2013, he was averaging about 91 MPH. This spring, he has been in the high 80s. We can assume an elite power pitcher with declining velocity is in some sort of decline. We will see, but there is no "WTF" with that decline in velocity over the last two years and into this spring.

 

His ERA in the last two years are his two highest since 2005. He has averaged 205 innings per season for the last two years after averaging 240 from 2007 through 2011. His 2013 WHIP was the highest of his career. He is still good but showing signs of decline from his elite status.

 

Sabathia has been an elite pitcher. He is still a very good pitcher, but he is getting older and has thrown a lot of innings. Decline does not mean he is now terrible. It simply means he is obviously in decline.

Edited March 16, 2014 by Spitball

[SoxSport]

There was talk at the end of last year about Hernandez having some arm problems. He has been up and down in ST, and we'll have to see how he is. Unless Sabathia comes back to being dominant, the Yankees SP is questionable--regardless of what the NY based media says. They are still a ways behind the Rays, Orioles and Red Sox. Losing Cano is bigger than the Red Sox' losing Ellsbury--obviously. The media has been building up Ellsbury as a Yankee much more than Ellsbury as a Red Sox. The NY effect.

[jacksonianmarch]

Once again, you don't live in reality SS

[Dojji]

actually everything he says is pretty accurate, I'm just not sure what each sentence has to do with the last.

[sk7326]

WTF are you talking about? I think I need to be considered an educator here, maybe I can get a tax break.

 

In 2012, he posted the lowest WHIP of his Yankee career and had a near identical ERA to his 2009 campaign. In 2011, he posted a 3.00ERA, his lowest in the AL in his career. How the f*** is that a decline "for awhile now"?

 

CC was excellent in 2012. It was a decline from 2009 since he provided 30 innings less of value, but yes the peripherals were excellent (FIP, K and BB percentages ... WHIP is silly to use in non-fantasy situations since it uses the wrong denominator).

 

2012 was a decline in that he was almost 2 wins worse than he was in 2011 and the innings pitched plummeted. He is still an innings horse, but not at the level he has been. But as I noted, getting him to a 2012 level (excellent peripherals, but not the guaranteed pitch to the 8th inning level of yore) will be plenty to go with Tanaka and Nova if they perform as anticipated. That is a rotation that can be a plus. Now, have the Yanks done enough to catch Boston and Tampa? Not to me. But the division is loaded.

[SoxSport]

King Felix was 2-6, ERA 4.11 after the all-star game last year. Had a bad August, 1-4, 5.82 ERA, .281 BAA. Came back some in Sept. 3.78 ERA. There was talk he was having elbow or arm issues. My memory was correct.

[SoxSport]

actually everything he says is pretty accurate, I'm just not sure what each sentence has to do with the last.

 

Ells is part of the big NY buildup. After all, isn't he making $22 million now? LOL.

 

Making the playoffs in mediatown is serious business. The Yanks are under some pressure after missing last year.

[Bellhorn04]

King Felix was 2-6, ERA 4.11 after the all-star game last year. Had a bad August, 1-4, 5.82 ERA, .281 BAA. Came back some in Sept. 3.78 ERA. There was talk he was having elbow or arm issues. My memory was correct.

 

Your numbers are indeed correct.