2014 Prospect Mega Thread

[mvp 78]

Sox just announced their MLB Spring Training camp invites:

 

@PeteAbe: #RedSox invited Barnes, Hinojosa, Marrero, Owens, Ramirez, Shaw, Swihart, Meneses to major league Spring Training.

 

Note: these players are not on the 40 man roster.

 

It'll be interesting to see what strides Swihart, Barnes and Owens make this year. Do any of them have a chance for a late year call up?

[Palodios]

Keith Law Ranked the Red Sox to have the #5 farm system.

 

Baseball Prospectus gave them six top 100 prospects. Xander #2, Bradley #23, Barnes, Owens, Cecchini, Swihart.

[rjortiz]

Sox just announced their MLB Spring Training camp invites:

 

@PeteAbe: #RedSox invited Barnes, Hinojosa, Marrero, Owens, Ramirez, Shaw, Swihart, Meneses to major league Spring Training.

 

Note: these players are not on the 40 man roster.

 

It'll be interesting to see what strides Swihart, Barnes and Owens make this year. Do any of them have a chance for a late year call up?

 

Small.

 

They'd have to dominate AA to gain a quick promotion to AAA, and then dominate that level to earn a call up to MLB. It also doesn't help that they are behind other players on the depth chart. The Red Sox have great depth at the MLB level, and some promising arms at AAA. Vazquez is the starting C at AAA. The odds of that they reach the level of performance to jump other players on the depth chart seems unlikely to happen. Maybe Owens could pitch out of the bullpen in September, but that's another position of strength for the Red Sox.

[sk7326]

Keith Law Top 100 up ... http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10166140/byron-buxton-tops-2014-ranking-top-100-prospects-mlb

 

Red Sox highlights ... (eligibility = not used up rookie eligibility yet, no Japan/Korea major experience, and no Abreu who is 27)

 

#2. Xander Bogaerts

For all of Bogaerts' tools -- and he has many -- it was his patient approach at the plate that stood out in the Aruban's brief major league stint in 2013. Bogaerts has explosive potential as a hitter, as the ball comes off his bat exceptionally well, and the fact he sees the ball so well and makes good decisions as a hitter bodes well for his ability to adjust to major league pitching if he's handed an everyday job in 2014.

 

He has quick and very strong hands at the plate, with moderate hip rotation that still projects to plus power because of the speed and force of his swing. He's a natural shortstop, with soft hands and very good actions as well as plenty of arm for the left side of the infield. Although his frame could allow him to get too big for the position, he's maintained his conditioning well enough to stay at short for the near future, and the possibility of a 25- to 30-homer bat with strong on-base skills at that position gives Boston strong incentive to leave him there.

 

He could be Troy Tulowitzki with a little less arm, and that's an MVP-caliber player.

 

#42. Henry Owens

Owens was prospect No. 101 on last year's rankings, first in the column of guys who just missed the main list, but he showed across-the-board improvement in 2013 and now projects as a No. 3 starter with a chance to be a good No. 2.

 

He has always been a strike-thrower, but was working in the upper 80s as a starter in high school and right after signing, showing 90-92 in short stints. In 2013, he was working at that higher range as a starter and his curveball got sharper and harder as well, now more 72-74 as opposed to the upper 60s he showed the year before. The curve will settle in as an average to slightly above-average pitch, but he already has the swing-and-miss weapon in his plus-plus changeup, made even more effective because hitters do not pick up the ball out of his hand.

 

Owens has always had feel and control, but now the stuff is catching up to his polish and he's not far away from contributing in Fenway.

 

#51 Jackie Bradley Jr

While Bradley Jr.'s Jackpot Wad took over Fort Myers last spring, with a .419/.507/.613 line in 62 at-bats, the push for his Hall of Fame induction might have been a touch premature, as Bradley wasn't the same guy when the bell rang in April as he was when the games didn't count.

 

Major league pitchers were able to beat him in the zone with plus velocity and down and away with off-speed stuff, but Bradley managed to perform as well as expected after a demotion to Pawtucket. His ideal game is plus-plus defense in center with a high OBP at the plate and fringy power, maybe 10 to 15 homers a year; when he tries to over-rotate to hit the ball out to right, he expands his zone and makes less contact as a result.

 

Staying short to the ball and focusing on going line-to-line rather than trying to hit for power should make him an above-average regular, with OBPs in the .360 to .380 range. He could also save 10 or more runs a year on defense, enough to make Red Sox fans say "Jacoby who?"

 

#53 Garin Cecchini

Cecchini had a minor hamstring issue that slowed him down in 2013, but he showed he could really hit, projecting as a consistent .300-plus hitter whose future hit grade is a 65 or a 70. Now he just has to show he can stay at third base.

 

As a hitter, Cecchini has an extremely advanced approach at the plate, actually walking more than he struck out this year despite moving up a level midseason. He has some raw power but rarely shows it in games, preferring to use the middle of the field, although with no stride and a tendency to stay more linear and short to the ball, he'll have a hard time getting past 15 homers. His defense at third will never be pretty, but I believe he can stay there based on his instincts and game awareness, which will make up for a lack of first-step quickness.

 

His downside is a Bill Mueller-type of career, but I see Cecchini hitting for higher averages and OBPs while providing comparable defense at third base.

 

#56. Blake Swihart

Swihart, the No. 100 prospect on my list before the 2012 season, had a slow start that year but finished strong, and then carried it over with a breakout season in 2013 that saw him improve on offense and defense.

 

He is a tremendous athlete who played all over the field in high school, but last year the athleticism started to translate into very good defensive skills, with a plus arm that's quite accurate to go with better actions and receiving behind the plate. As a hitter, Swihart started to control the zone more effectively in 2013, with a 20 percent drop in his strikeout rate and a 33 percent hike in his walk rate even with the move up to high-A. He's a switch-hitter who lacked reps from the left side before entering pro ball but made substantial progress in his approach from that side last year, taking more than 80 percent of his plate appearances from that side.

 

Right now, Swihart is more of a line-drive hitter with doubles power but still projects to have average to above-average power when he peaks, 15 to 20 bombs a year, along with a strong OBP and plus defense behind the plate. He wasn't young for his level in either of the past two years, as he graduated high school at 19, but he's ready for Double-A now. With defensive wizard Christian Vazquez ahead of him, Swihart should get plenty of time in the high minors to continue to work on hitting left-handed and keeping his arm stroke short and simple behind the plate

.

 

#61. Mookie Betts

Betts was one of the year's biggest breakout prospects, a 2011 fifth-round pick who had an unremarkable pro debut in short-season Class A Lowell in 2012, but ripped through both full-season A-ball levels last year and established himself as one of the best middle infield prospects in the game.

 

He has some early hand movement before he loads his swing, but it's window-dressing and doesn't prevent him from being short and direct to the ball, with good hip rotation and some loft in his finish that could eventually produce 20-homer power. He's a plus runner and at least a 55-grade defender at second, with good range to his right and the athleticism to end up plus there; I know some scouts see him as a potential shortstop if the opportunity were to arise. His best attribute might be his feel for the strike zone; he's very balanced at the plate, even when he sees off-speed stuff, and makes quick adjustments within each at bat like a player with more pro experience would.

 

He could be an All-Star at second, maybe close to that at short, and despite his short stature there's still upside here because he's such a good athlete that he has untapped potential on both sides of the ball.

 

#89. Matt Barnes

Barnes had a very strong season in Double-A, missing a ton of bats and continuing to develop his curveball and changeup. He's still not at the point at which he's likely to have all three offerings working on the same day.

 

He shows a low-90s fastball and can add a little more when needed; hitters don't see the ball well out of his hand at all, so he gets a ton of swings and misses on his fastball, even within the zone. His curveball was much better in the second half of the season, a downer breaking ball that he didn't command early but was more effective with later in the season, while his changeup was probably better in the spring and might be a little too hard to be more than an average pitch. He continues to command his fastball better than his off-speed stuff and will probably spend most of 2014 in Triple-A working on the latter.

 

I see at least a mid-rotation starter here, with a chance to play above that if the secondary pitches come along. Guys who miss bats with fastball strikes like this are pretty uncommon, so I could be easily selling him short.

Edited January 29, 2014 by sk7326
Original link, blurbs included here

[sk7326]

Sox just announced their MLB Spring Training camp invites:

 

@PeteAbe: #RedSox invited Barnes, Hinojosa, Marrero, Owens, Ramirez, Shaw, Swihart, Meneses to major league Spring Training.

 

Note: these players are not on the 40 man roster.

 

It'll be interesting to see what strides Swihart, Barnes and Owens make this year. Do any of them have a chance for a late year call up?

 

Barnes, maybe for a spot start or so. Webster's star has fallen a bit with his alarming first taste of the bigs (small sample sizes, but a curious lack of feel and a terrible homerun rate for a sinkerballer). Owens less likely, although if he dominates early you never know.

 

Swihart I'd say a clear no. Vasquez at AAA is the first guy coming up for "C", and if Vasquez can hit a bit in AAA this season, I think he takes Pierzynski's ABs. Sox can live with that level of defense if his bat is acceptable.

[mvp 78]

I would like to see a spot start here and there from the young guys and really hope Vasquez is given a real chance here. I know some people are pining for Butler, but I'd rather see Vasquez called up first.

[sk7326]

Keith Law's Red Sox farm report: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10363490/american-league-east-top-10-prospects-team-2014-mlb

 

Org Top 10

1. Bogaerts

2. Owens

3. Bradley

4. Cecchini

5. Swihart

6. Betts

7. Barnes

8. Webster

9. Ranaudo

10. Ball

 

Farm system overview

 

Because what the world wanted to hear was that the defending World Series champs have one of the game's best and deepest systems, right? The Red Sox have drafted exceedingly well the past few years, loading the system with up-the-middle position-player talent, along with a handful of starters boasting mid-rotation upside.

 

Xander Bogaerts showed flashes in October of why he's a potential monster, with a mature approach at the plate and strong, quick wrists. Henry Owens' fastball and breaking ball were both much better in 2013 than in 2012, without giving up any of the deception that made him hard to hit before last season.

 

The No. 11 prospect in the system, had I continued, is premium defensive catcher Christian Vazquez, who isn't a great offensive prospect but makes so much contact that he'll likely end up an average to above-average regular overall. Lefty Brian Johnson still could be a No. 4 or 5 starter, and showed a little extra velocity in instructional league.

 

Boston took a few project guys in the 2013 draft after first-rounder Trey Ball, including fallen idol Jon Denney, a catcher who came into the spring as a surefire first-rounder but struggled badly down the stretch as he lost strength and energy; and Teddy Stankiewicz, an excellent athlete who can hit 94-95 mph with good command, thanks to a repeatable delivery. And they signed 16-year-old Dominican third baseman Rafael Devers, a left-handed hitter with big-time power and a very good swing, for $1.5 million in August.

 

2014 impact

 

Bogaerts should be their every-day shortstop; I'm not convinced there's a $6 million gap between what he'll provide and what Stephen Drew would provide, let alone a $12 million one. Jackie Bradley Jr. appears on track to be the Opening Day center fielder. Allen Webster and Anthony Ranaudo should get starts whenever Boston needs to fill in for someone in the major league rotation. Webster needs to show he can command his fastball, especially in the lower half, while Ranaudo was all over the place both times I saw him last year, and has to iron out some timing issues around his landing.

 

The fallen

 

Their 2012 first-rounder, Deven Marrero, slugged .317 on the year across two levels, and there's not a lot you can do to paper over that. He can still play excellent defense at short, and was 27-for-29 on stolen base attempts despite a hamstring pull early in the season, but right now he looks like a No. 8 or 9 hitter in the big leagues whom pitchers might blow away with better velocity.

 

Sleeper

 

Last year's sleeper, Manuel Margot, would be No. 12 in the system now, and could make the leap next year with a full season in low Class A. He's an above-average defender in center who can run and throw and takes good at-bats for someone who won't turn 20 until September.

[mvp 78]

The Marrero signing was kinda weird. He was projected to have a ceiling of an average SS. For where they drafted him, they would have been better off trying to find a guy with a live arm or power potential.

[Palodios]

The Marrero signing was kinda weird. He was projected to have a ceiling of an average SS. For where they drafted him, they would have been better off trying to find a guy with a live arm or power potential.

 

Wasn't the 2012 draft very shallow? I remember 2011 being an exceptional class because so many players preferred to be drafted with the old overslot signing rules, thus limiting the 2012 group. The Red Sox's top picks in 2012 were Marrero, Brian Johnson, Pat Light -- college athletes with low ceilings, but high floors as well.

[mvp 78]

But what's the point in drafting a backup IF in the 1st round? Those players grow on trees. I'd rather waste picks on volatile high ceiling guys.

[seabeachfred]

But what's the point in drafting a backup IF in the 1st round? Those players grow on trees. I'd rather waste picks on volatile high ceiling guys.

 

Marrrero didn't hit at Arizona State; he will never hit in the Bigs. Use him as trade bait for some unsuspecting and naïve team looking for an infielder.

[mvp 78]

Marrrero didn't hit at Arizona State; he will never hit in the Bigs. Use him as trade bait for some unsuspecting and naïve team looking for an infielder.

 

Because other teams ignore scouting reports and can't read statistics?

[Palodios]

But what's the point in drafting a backup IF in the 1st round? Those players grow on trees. I'd rather waste picks on volatile high ceiling guys.

 

I don't disagree with you, but it may be related to the state of that current team. They were humiliated in 2011, and their payroll was so high that their big signing that year was Cody Ross, but they needed to trade away Scutaro to make it happen. They had plenty of high tier talent, but they lacked depth. The farm system hadn't produced a whole lot of major leaguers in a few years. Adding college players instead of high school players probably was meant to speed up the rebuilding process.

 

This was also Ben Cherrington's first draft. No one knew how the new overslot system would work out for some teams. This may have been still during the period when nonbaseball execs were making baseball decisions -- possibly basing the draft on early projections had Marrero as a top 5 pick.

[mvp 78]

Great post. Will still be interesting to see how that draft (and Marrero in particular) pans out.

[Spudboy]

I think that drafting is an imperfect process with some crap shooting. It all comes down to the quality of scouting and subjective analysis. Very few players are "sure things".

 

I don't pretend to understand any of the nuances of the slotting stuff.

 

In any case, drafting is just a role of the dice most of the time.

[sk7326]

I think in 2011 the teams were also figuring out how to portfolio manage in the new slotting system, the balance of easy signs with risky upside. Merrero had an awful senior year but a terrific junior year. He went to a program with a really strong history of producing pros - including of course the Sun Devils' former undersized shortstop. I think they saw some projection, or at least a quick path to the bigs - they got neither. It's ok - 24th pick has a fairly low ROI to begin with.

 

The draft SEEMS like a roll of the dice, and in baseball the "sure thing rate" is lower than other sports. But the top of the draft is still a very good predictor of pro success. Note how Tampa's system took off as they drafted high year after year, and the rankings have slipped as guys have graduated as well as they have stopped picking at #1.

[sk7326]

I think in 2011 the teams were also figuring out how to portfolio manage in the new slotting system, the balance of easy signs with risky upside. Merrero had an awful senior year but a terrific junior year. He went to a program with a really strong history of producing pros - including of course the Sun Devils' former undersized shortstop. I think they saw some projection, or at least a quick path to the bigs - they got neither. It's ok - 24th pick has a fairly low ROI to begin with.

 

The draft SEEMS like a roll of the dice, and in baseball the "sure thing rate" is lower than other sports. But the top of the draft is still a very good predictor of pro success. Note how Tampa's system took off as they drafted high year after year, and the rankings have slipped as guys have graduated as well as they have stopped picking at #1.

 

Nobody will bat 1.000, but some teams draft better than others and it matters.

[mvp 78]

@MattEddyBA: Random minor league signings: #Dbacks RHP Brian Broderick, #RedSox RHP Chris Resop, #Twins 2B Tony Thomas & #Yankees RHP Cole Kimball.

 

Tony Thomas no longer in Sox org.

[Palodios]

Baseball America's top 100 are in!

 

#2 Xander

#40 Owens

#50 Bradley

#73 Swihart

#74 Cecchini

#75 Betts

#88 Webster

#89 Ball

[jete02fan]

Keith Law Ranked the Red Sox to have the #5 farm system.

 

Baseball Prospectus gave them six top 100 prospects. Xander #2, Bradley #23, Barnes, Owens, Cecchini, Swihart.

a rise from last season as 4 of last year's top 5 all tumble...

[sk7326]

a rise from last season as 4 of last year's top 5 all tumble...

 

True, although some of the drops, like the Cardinals was due to graduation. It is one thing to note with farm system rankings. Teams will dip as major leaguers get produced. Sox will drop off next year most likely as they will graduate at least 2 prospects.

[Palodios]

Denney with a DUI. Seems to be a trend on this team lately.

[mvp 78]

Denney with a DUI. Seems to be a trend on this team lately.

 

http://deadspin.com/belligerent-red-sox-prospect-arrested-while-looking-to-1544062842

 

After following him on twitter, none of this is surprising. He seems like a grade A moron.

[a700hitter]

Give a 19 year old a bunch of money, a car and the fame of being part of a top sports organization with no supervision and this is going to happen over and over.

[Spudboy]

How messed up could he have been to actually tell the cops the truth? I think that this is so funny.

 

If my Son had done any of this crap at that age I would have grabbed him by the ear and dragged him off to apologize in person to those that were affected by his improper actions. It's all bad parenting.

[a700hitter]

How messed up could he have been to actually tell the cops the truth? I think that this is so funny.

 

If my Son had done any of this crap at that age I would have grabbed him by the ear and dragged him off to apologize in person to those that were affected by his improper actions. It's all bad parenting.

The parents of some athletes are unfortunately part of their kid's adoring coddling fan club from an early age. Bad parenting.

[seabeachfred]

The parents of some athletes are unfortunately part of their kid's adoring coddling fan club from an early age. Bad parenting.

 

He should get a get out of jail card for this first offense but if it happens one more time he needs his ticket punched right out of the organization. He sounds like an imbecile to me. The Red Sox need to watch this guy--------------------VERY CAREFULLY from here on in.

[BSN07]

2010 Red Sox first-rounder Kolbrin Vitek has retired, reports Alex Speier of WEEI.com. Injuries slowed the toolsy player, who never managed to translate his raw abilities into production. As Speier notes, however, several other players taken in that draft have panned out quite nicely.

 

Kind of a surprise.

[a700hitter]

A first round bust. Black mark for the GM. Should have had Clint Eastwood scout hi.

[Palodios]

Vitek was taken in a draft that also yielded Brandon Workman, Bryce Brentz, Anthony Ranaudo, Sean Coyle, and Garin Cecchini. Workman was the 8th inning guy in a World Series run, and there is plenty of other talent in that group to make up for the Vitek pick.