Replacing Lost WAR in 2014.

[marklmw]

Boston can go one of two ways in 2014.

Option A.: They can be patient and wait one year to see how many of their top players on the farm come around, pick up a lot of compensation picks to restock and plan on 2015 and on. As they say we are playing with house money now.

Option B: They can sign a FA or two which includes any of the 4 FA's that played on the 2013 Championship Team (I love saying that)

and try to repeat in 2014.

 

If you selected Option B then we might have a problem replacing the total lost WAR of 15.9 of the 2013 team, see below:

 

Drew - 3.1

Ell's - 5.8

Napoli - 4.1

Salty - 2.9

 

Now lets look at replacements

 

Bogaerts for Drew - Even

Napoli for Napoli - Even

Hanigan for Salty - Even

JBJ for Ell's - Minus 4

 

Here lies the problem: Beginning the 2014 season knowing you potentially 4 less wins.

I made an argument of signing Cano away from the Yankees for a 200M/8 year deal.

 

Does this make Ellsbury at 108/6 more appealing?

I think signing Ellsbury would be a nice bridge into the future and covering Options A & B.

 

Comments always welcome.

[Dojji]

Salty and Ells are going to be the two areas that hurt the most.

 

That said, I think we may be losing WAR in a couple other areas. For example, it's unlikely that victorino repeats the career year he had here. And we don't have Napoli in fold yet.

[User Name]

The Red Sox put up total WAR figures of:

 

21.7 from pitchers.

 

36.6 WAR from position players.

 

The Sox are likely to lose from as little as 2 to as much as 6 offensive wins depending on how the rest of their off-season goes. However, those losses could be greatly off-set if they can get a good defensive catcher, bump Dempster from the rotation and Koji can hold up for the entire season. All doable in my opinion.

 

This is under the assumption that Doubront finally takes that step forward we've all been waiting for so long.

[Palodios]

Middlebrooks producing respectable numbers could be a big boost and so could a healthy pedroia. With a reliable closer, th sox won't lose wins at the end of games like we saw with Hanrahan and Bailey early. The rotation is much deeper.

 

They need a first baseman and a catcher but we knew that. Losing ellsbury, and a top notch backup middle infielder are the only pieces that hurts.

[mvp 78]

Just don't see how Ells and Cano have anything to do with each other.

 

Cano isn't coming here. End of story.

 

Pick up WAR by not having blown saves from Bailey and Hanrahan.

[Hoplite]

Third base, back end of the rotation, bullpen. Middlebrooks was worth 0.3 WAR last year, Steamer projects him to be worth 2.5 next year. In the first half Webster and Aceves made a combined 13 starts and were worth -.7 WAR. Peavy's projected to be worth 3 WAR next year. And it took us a while to sort our bullpen out, we blew the fifth most saves in baseball and Koji only blew three.

[marklmw]

Just don't see how Ells and Cano have anything to do with each other.

 

Cano isn't coming here. End of story.

 

Pick up WAR by not having blown saves from Bailey and Hanrahan.

 

The relationship between Ell's & Cano is that they are considered the 2 top FA's this year and they have similar WAR's. I think it is great that everyone is optimistic and we are going to make up wins for one reason or another but signing Ell's will help with the transition as he is as good as gold to give us a 5+ WAR. If the Yankees are willing to pay Cano 24M per for 7 years which we know will become 8 should not the Sox at least consider giving Ellsbury 18M per for 6 years? That is what one has to do with the other. Think man Think!

[marklmw]

Middlebrooks producing respectable numbers could be a big boost and so could a healthy pedroia. With a reliable closer, th sox won't lose wins at the end of games like we saw with Hanrahan and Bailey early. The rotation is much deeper.

 

They need a first baseman and a catcher but we knew that. Losing ellsbury, and a top notch backup middle infielder are the only pieces that hurts.

 

If we do not sign Nap's it will make the case for signing Ell's. Hart would become a must have even on a 1 year contract and the Sox should have no issue overpaying him if necessary. Hanigan is a need to help the pitching staff improve their collective WAR.

[User Name]

In his 7-year career, Ellsbury has provided the Red Sox with 5+ WAR exactly twice, with one year being clearly a fluke, and the second being a contract drive. How is he as good as gold to provide a 5+ WAR, especially with his recurrent health issues?

[marklmw]

In his 7-year career, Ellsbury has provided the Red Sox with 5+ WAR exactly twice, with one year being clearly a fluke, and the second being a contract drive. How is he as good as gold to provide a 5+ WAR, especially with his recurrent health issues?

^ Steak Dinner UN? Ellsbury did not even get in 150 games in 2013... WAR rewards games played.

[Bellhorn04]

In his 7-year career, Ellsbury has provided the Red Sox with 5+ WAR exactly twice, with one year being clearly a fluke, and the second being a contract drive. How is he as good as gold to provide a 5+ WAR, especially with his recurrent health issues?

 

This is something that's been overlooked a bit - this was a classic contract-motivated season for Ellsbury - he even played hurt some at the end of the year - which was kind of unprecedented.

[marklmw]

So UN ... I was at a poker game last night in Connecticut. Were I live half the people are Sox fans while the other half are Yankee fans ... there are a few lost Met's fans here and there. There were 10 guys around the table when I asked everyone what they thought of the Cano signing. One guy jumped out of his chair saying that he had not heard anything about Cano signing. I said, yeah it was just announced he signed an 8 Year -200M contract with the Red Sox. He agreed to move to 1B. The room went nuts. Someone said no f...ing way ... I kept it straight and said, yeah I heard it on the radio on the way here ... Peter Gammons broke the story. The Sox fans were out of their seats, jumping around and giving high five's ... the Yankee fans were distressed ... they were looking at one another with sad faces. It was incredible. I eventually told everyone that I made it up but it was priceless let me tell you.

[Bellhorn04]

You're quite the merry prankster mark.

[marklmw]

This is something that's been overlooked a bit - this was a classic contract-motivated season for Ellsbury - he even played hurt some at the end of the year - which was kind of unprecedented.

 

Teams always pay for ceilings. Yes Ell's played through a lot this past season being a contract year. How about next year that he is injury free ... I am feeling a WAR of 7.

[marklmw]

You're quite the merry prankster mark.

I wish I had it on film .. capturing every persons reaction. My kid brother ... age 48 was as happy as anyone.

[marklmw]

Salty and Ells are going to be the two areas that hurt the most.

 

That said, I think we may be losing WAR in a couple other areas. For example, it's unlikely that victorino repeats the career year he had here. And we don't have Napoli in fold yet.

 

Exactly!

[Bellhorn04]

I wish I had it on film .. capturing every persons reaction. My kid brother ... age 48 was as happy as anyone.

 

Man if I did something like that with some of my avid baseball fan friends, a few would be calling me a complete ******* when they found out it was BS.

[marklmw]

Man if I did something like that with some of my avid baseball fan friends, a few would be calling me a complete ******* when they found out it was BS.

 

Come on man ... baseball is entertainment not life and death. Have you not learned anything from the movie 'Fever Pitch' No one called me an ******* ... everyone had a good time and every Sox fan in the room loved the idea of snagging the Yankees top player away from them. The Yankee fans were shaking their heads while watching the Sox fans celebrating. They were very happy to learn that the story was not true. Oh yeah, I told them I heard it on the WFAN which is a NY Sports Radio station the we pick up here.

[User Name]

^ Steak Dinner UN? Ellsbury did not even get in 150 games in 2013... WAR rewards games played.

 

Which is exactly why he's not a lock to have back-to-back 5-WAR seasons.

[marklmw]

Which is exactly why he's not a lock to have back-to-back 5-WAR seasons.

I got a feeling UN ... Ellsbury is going to have a monster 2014 season ... He is going to be healthy the entire year and exceed his 2013 overall numbers ... sans SB's

[User Name]

I got a feeling UN ... Ellsbury is going to have a monster 2014 season ... He is going to be healthy the entire year and exceed his 2013 overall numbers ... sans SB's

 

I get a feeling he gets an ouchie and misses twenty games.

[marklmw]

I get a feeling he gets an ouchie and misses twenty games.

Do you know how much weighting SB's add to a players WAR? Mike Trout seems to be the player created to deliver the optimum WAR. What say you?

[User Name]

Do you know how much weighting SB's add to a players WAR? Mike Trout seems to be the player created to deliver the optimum WAR. What say you?

 

Yeah because he gets on base, hits for power and plays great D at center and Left. SB's aren't that important to the totality of the formula.

[marklmw]

Does anyone subscribe to espn insider: If so can you access this article?

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10037159/mlb-predicting-biggest-free-agent-busts-2014-offseason

[VA Sox Fan]

You're quite the merry prankster mark.

 

Man if I did something like that with some of my avid baseball fan friends, a few would be calling me a complete ******* when they found out it was BS.

 

More like the merry douche bag. Just like the "Napoli signs with the Rockies" thread. Complete ******* is right.

 

No way that you'd do anything like that bellhorn, you are cool.

[marklmw]

Yeah because he gets on base, hits for power and plays great D at center and Left. SB's aren't that important to the totality of the formula.

 

Trout's D numbers were not so great in 2013 ... if I remember correctly. So if Ellsbury on grabs a mere 35 bags in 2014 it will not affect is WAR number all that much?

Edited November 30, 2013 by marklmw

[marklmw]

Go Sox Edited December 3, 2013 by marklmw

[marklmw]

Yeah because he gets on base, hits for power and plays great D at center and Left. SB's aren't that important to the totality of the formula.

 

Cabrera out performed Trout in most of the important offensive categories except SB's. Trout had a dWAR of -.8 while Cabrera's dWAR was -1.4. Trout still clobbered Miggy for total WAR. Educate me please.

[User Name]

Cabrera out performed Trout in most of the important offensive categories except SB's. Trout had a dWAR of -.8 while Cabrera's dWAR was -1.4. Trout still clobbered Miggy for total WAR. Educate me please.

 

The BSR component used by FG doesn't pertain only to SB's, but rather to baserunning efficiency in general. You only asked about stolen bases, and i gave you the correct answer. Also, Trout had a 3.3 overall FG DWAR while Cabrera had a -14.8 mark, so i don't know where you got that -.8.

 

I don't know if you're using BB-Ref's formula, for which the BSR component is a bit more SB-reliant, but still, the main reasons Trout had such a big WAR advantage are clearly both defense and baserunning.

[Bellhorn04]

More ******** from VA Fan. How about I rip off your head and piss all over you. LOL

 

This is way over the line man.