2014 Roster Projections

[User Name]

We disagree. If you can get a future .880-.920 OPS bat to play 1B for you, you absolutely pull the trigger on that. Belt is a much better player than you give him credit for.

 

He's got a career .339 BABIP because he has about a 25% LD%. It's not flukey, it's justified.

 

Here are your 2014 Free Agent 1B, outside of Napoli:

 

Jeff Baker (33)

Yuniesky Betancourt (32)

Corey Hart (32)

Paul Konerko (38)

Casey Kotchman (31)

Brandon Laird (26)

James Loney (30)

Casey McGehee (31)

Kendrys Morales (30)

Justin Morneau (33)

Mike Napoli (32)

Lyle Overbay (37)

Carlos Pena (36)

Mark Reynolds (30)

Chad Tracy (34)

Ty Wigginton (36)

Kevin Youkilis (35)

 

There is nothing there. Brentz, WMB, and Ranaudo would not be an overpayment for a young, cost controlled power hitting 1B if Napoli doesn't sign.

 

As posted below, the problem is that 1B production is easy to find on the market. You could probably get as much production from from a Carp/(Insert rightie platoon 1B) than trading for Belt, whom you cannot guarantee will produce at the rate you're projecting him. This is the typical case of "SFF gets mancrush, SFF overvalue X player" at play here. No thanks on Belt.

[SoxFanForsyth]

We should just resign Mike Napoli and stop talking about Belt or Reynolds or Hart or any of those inferior combinations. We know for a fact that Napoli loves playing in Boston, is great in the clubhouse, is a leader, a good defensive first baseman, a run producer and still young enough to give us three or four more productive seasons. Instead of talking about Beltran or Hudson, finish the job taking care of things in house by signing players who have already produced for us instead of guys who have been out for a year, have been underachievers or are way past their prime. RESIGN NAPOLI!!!!!!

 

These were all ideas in the case that, for whatever reason, the Sox couldn't reach a deal with Nap.

[sk7326]

Hey we see eye to eye on this thing. Double no thanks. The guy is going to be 37 and other teams need him a hell of a lot more than we do. Besides, look at his background the past decade. He has become nothing more than a gun slinging mercenary going where the money is the highest. He would be no real team type player with the Red Sox. His loyalty to his respective teams has been negligible, and though I don't blame him for seeking the highest payday he can get, I think he would be a very bad fit for the Red Sox. We are set in RF and have a good platoon combo in left. If Bradley is given a solid chance backed up by a guy who can hit lefties we are set out there. Besides we have guys on the farm who are close to ready and our needs are elsewhere.

 

Loyalty? His original team dealt him at the deadline in 2004. He then signed with the Mets (his first voluntary signing) who then dealt him when it was rebuilding time. Then he signed with Saint Louis until it ran its course. He chose 2 of the 5 teams he played for ... it's like David Cone - that a lot of teams have wanted him is a plus.

[SoxFanForsyth]

As posted below, the problem is that 1B production is easy to find on the market. You could probably get as much production from from a Carp/(Insert rightie platoon 1B) than trading for Belt, whom you cannot guarantee will produce at the rate you're projecting him. This is the typical case of "SFF gets mancrush, SFF overvalue X player" at play here. No thanks on Belt.

 

You can't guarantee anything. That's the issue. And getting a young talented first baseman who is entering his prime is a good strategy. There's significantly less risk in terms of injury and decline in production with youth.

 

I'll give you that I have a mancrush on Stanton and Lee, but I certainly don't have one on Belt. Not in the least. This offer and this conversation isn't even in the same stratosphere as the Stanton conversations. Not close.

[User Name]

Paul Konerko last season: .923 OPS against lefties.

 

Kendrys Morales last season: .794 OPS against lefties (playing in Seattle)

 

Mike Morse had a down year because of injuries, but he's historically fared pretty well against lefties.

 

These are all options that could be acquired as part of the platoon with no draft pick compensation and without having to give up young talent.

[User Name]

You can't guarantee anything. That's the issue. And getting a young talented first baseman who is entering his prime is a good strategy. There's significantly less risk in terms of injury and decline in production with youth.

 

I'll give you that I have a mancrush on Stanton and Lee, but I certainly don't have one on Belt. Not in the least. This offer and this conversation isn't even in the same stratosphere as the Stanton conversations. Not close.

 

Yeah, but you can make educated assumptions on some players. And as a 1B who doesn't have upper-echelon power and has survived off a high BABIP for the last couple of years, you can assume that the possibility of a drop in production is very real. Why take the risk when you can get a platoon guy for cheap?

[jung]

I think of the two FA's the Sox offered QO's to that won't demand the huge money that Ells will requires, Naps and Drew, Naps IMO gives you much more value for your dollars spent.

 

All year long in an effort to swallow his regular 0-30's we kept telling ourselves that Drew was a top 5 offensive SS, a top 5 offensive SS. Big deal. All we were really telling ourselves is that the 2013 SS's across baseball were just plain sucky at the plate, as anemic a group of SS's as we have seen. Unless XB plays SS or unless the Sox go heavy after a trade for one of the very few offensive SS's in baseball they are just not going to get much offensive out of that position. That could be fine. However you know that Boras is going to be hammering away at that top 5 2013 SS's in baseball tag line. To be honest I don't think GM's are going to drink Boras Kool-aid on Drew. Steven is not the guy a team can make the face of their franchise nor is he somebody that can fit either at the top or middle of the BA.

 

We can see why Ells won't take the QO and even see our way to why Naps would not take it. But Drew IMO is a pure case of the agent's confidence and having convinced the player that he is going to pull off some kind of monster deal for him. I really think Drew is making a big mistake that is going to cost him millions with an "S" of $'s. He could have the $14.1M this year, a number that he has no chance at duplicating in a contract from some other team based on his 2013. Sure the Cards need a SS but they just need one that does not trip over his own shoelaces on the way to a ground ball.

 

There are maybe three SS's in baseball that move the needle offensively.That is it and Drew is not one of them. Once you are settled on putting the rest of the SS's in a bag, shaking it and taking any one of them as far as what one of them will add to your offense, now you are down to paying for a solid glove at SS. Solid gloves at SS don't get big contract deals. IMO, Drew would be far smarter to take the $14.1M and try to use 2014 to hit his way into making that short list of SS's that move the needle offensively four deep instead of three deep. If he could do that, add it to his defensive skills and now you are talking big big money contract. That is why I think he is going to end up costing himself millions not taking the QO.You have a few million he is going to cost himself this year and you have the millions he could have had if he could just use 2014 to elevate his offensive skill set just enough to make a big impact on expectations for him at the plate to go along with expectations for him in the field.

 

Boras must have Steven convinced that he can get a team to pay him on the come and I just do not see that level of stupidity out there such that Boras can take that kind of advantage. Sure there is money to spend in baseball. That does not mean teams just want to throw it away and a big contract for Drew would be just throwing the money away.

[redsoxrules]

Drew easily gets 30M+ if he signs a multi year deal. He's not stupid at all. Why sign for 14M when you can get over 30M guaranteed?

[Thunder]

Drew easily gets 30M+ if he signs a multi year deal. He's not stupid at all. Why sign for 14M when you can get over 30M guaranteed?

 

I don't know if the Sox will pay him 30M though. He's stupid if he expects to stay here.

[seabeachfred]

These were all ideas in the case that, for whatever reason, the Sox couldn't reach a deal with Nap.

 

Oh I know that Forsyth, but I wish the Red Sox would just give Napoli that three year contract I'm sure some other team will offer him and get on with fine tuning themselves in places where they need help. Don't laugh, but I think we should concentrate on the battery. We can use an arm or two in the bullpen and then get our catching up to par. Unlike most of you, I want to see them resign Jarrod Satalamacchia. Certainly he's no Johnny Bench but he has improved markedly the past few seasons, and even our pitchers think he has improved in his game calling. He still strikes out a lot but at l east he doesn't swing out of his ass all the time as his 40 doubles and higher batting average demonstrated this season. I would sure like to see the Red Sox make a couple of moves during these GM meetings this week.

[User Name]

I don't know if the Sox will pay him 30M though. He's stupid if he expects to stay here.

 

He's not talking about Drew staying here, he's talking about Drew getting his money, regardless of team.

[marklmw]

Not surprising all 3 reject QO.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/thirteen-free-agents-turn-down-221920366--mlb.html

Edited November 11, 2013 by marklmw

[redsoxrules]

He's not talking about Drew staying here, he's talking about Drew getting his money, regardless of team.

 

Bingo

[mvp 78]

I want Salty to sign for 3/30 here. Napoli to sign for 3/39 here. Drew to sign anywhere else. Ells to sign a fat deal in Seattle and enjoy 7 seasons without making the playoffs.

[jung]

Why should Drew take the $14.1M for 1 year when you could have 3/30? I think the answer to that is obvious. Unless he is injured in 2014, in which case, he still gets all of the $14.1 he risks nothing taking that $14.1 and trying to increase his value via producing better offensive numbers in 2014. He could hardly do worse offensively and his defense is not likely to be going anywhere over the course of one year. So he still has that as a baseline for his value. Adding some offense to that changes that 3/30 to something more like 3/40 or even 3/42 given an added year of typical salary inflation. Lets use the lower number. If you just take the first two years of a contract he signed next year for 3/40 and add that to the $14.1 he could have this year he costs himself about $10M over a period of 3 years by taking 3/30 now. On the other side of the equation, barring injury he costs himself nothing by waiting one year and taking the $14.1M. Heck even if he is injured he may cost himself nothing by taking the $14.1 now. He only has to make another $15.9M in the following two years to get the same $30M he would have by signing a 3/30 deal now.

 

The only way it works out for Drew to pass on the $14.1 is if Boras can get him signed someplace for something between 3/36 and 3/40 now which is what I meant by getting somebody to sign him on the come. 3/30 just is not worth taking IMO given what he could have if he could just add some offense to his defense. Equally disconcerting....he actually has the potential to add enough pop to turn that trick. He does not have to turn himself into the best of four ML SS's with decent offensive numbers. He just has to move himself off of being the first of the next ten SS's that simply have no offensive impact worth talking about.

 

I would be completely surprised if Boras is whispering 3/30 in Drew's ear. Boras should be able to get him 3/30 with one lip tied behind his back.

[Thunder]

Not surprising all 3 reject QO.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/thirteen-free-agents-turn-down-221920366--mlb.html

 

Yep. No surprises, now we move to the next stage.

[redsoxrules]

I did say at least 3/30.

I'm thinking Drew will snatch 3/36.

[Thunder]

On a side note, Myyyyyyyeeeeerrrrrrrrsssss wins AL ROTY.

[marklmw]

I did say at least 3/30.

I'm thinking Drew will snatch 3/36.

It will be interesting. A million here and a million there. Sox do not need to speed 3/36 on Drew. He is not a need. He is a nice luxury.

[sk7326]

On a side note, Myyyyyyyeeeeerrrrrrrrsssss wins AL ROTY.

 

Easiest of the awards this season ... really shabby batch of AL rookies - Myers the best by a good margin, and that is even with the hat tip to Iglesias.

[SoxSport]

Boras will get Drew more money than he's worth. Hopefully not in Boston. He'll probably do the same for Ells, too. Probably not in Boston. The main reason is the Red Sox are loaded--they have younger alternatives.

 

Who should the Red Sox get? Nap, for sure. Part of the team's character. Peavy, too. Another competitor.The main focus should be a good defensive partner for Ross. Salty? Maybe for first base. He might hit even better there. That's what they're saying about Mauer.

 

Excellent choices for ROY. Myers worked out better than I figured for a kid without much minor league experience. Fernandez well-deserved. The Baseball Writers showed they are not big market focused, like those NY based media types.

[Palodios]

Hey Thunder!

 

How about we make a bet?

 

If Ellsbury takes the QO, I'll buy you a ticket to any non-Yankee game you want next season.

If Ellsbury rejects the QO, you lose the right to post a game thread in 2014.

Deal

[redsoxrules]

The Red Sox are in darn good shape with their payroll if you look beyond the 2014 season as there's only Pedroia signed past 2015.

[wyo-sox]

I've seen one blurb on MLb trade rumors that Sox may work out a trade with Angels for Mark Trumbo if they do not work out something with Napoli. I think he would be great, good power and cheaper.

[marklmw]

I've seen one blurb on MLb trade rumors that Sox may work out a trade with Angels for Mark Trumbo if they do not work out something with Napoli. I think he would be great, good power and cheaper.

Trumbo would be an excellent pick-up if we cannot come to terms with Nap's. The Angels will want something in return as it is not a salary dump situation ... there lies the rub.

[User Name]

Trumbo has a lot of power, but also makes a tremendous amount of outs. Not a fan.

[jacksonianmarch]

There is next to no chance Ellsbury stays. And it makes a lot of sense. They have a GG CFer in RF. They have a kid who is ready in JBJ and if they want to, there are a lot of OF platoon options. They also can splurge on the FA market and in losing Ells, they'll drop only one spot in the draft if they pay a premium FA to replace him. I think the sox are gonna go hard after Beltran as a 2-3 yr deal suits them more than a guy like Choo, who's gonna get 6.

[jacksonianmarch]

Trumbo is not akin to the type of hitter the sox aspire to acquire. He's not a grinder. He's a basher

[marklmw]

There is next to no chance Ellsbury stays. And it makes a lot of sense. They have a GG CFer in RF. They have a kid who is ready in JBJ and if they want to, there are a lot of OF platoon options. They also can splurge on the FA market and in losing Ells, they'll drop only one spot in the draft if they pay a premium FA to replace him. I think the sox are gonna go hard after Beltran as a 2-3 yr deal suits them more than a guy like Choo, who's gonna get 6.

Signing Beltran would be a big mistake. The guy is old. You say that they drop only one draft spot ... is this accurate? ... in the end they loose a top draft pick ... a pick who could be the next Beltran ... a Beltran in his prime. I think now is the time to go with youth, save the cash for the future. Sox fans got much more than they could possibly hope for in 2013. As long as the Sox are competitive and they will be they can always make moves as the season progresses. You never know Brentz may come on strong and give you everything that you can expect from a 37 y.o. Beltran but for league minimum. Stay away from Beltran. We already have one senior citizen with Big Papi.

[Palodios]

I keep saying it, and I keep thinking it, but the smart move really is to sign Napoli, Ruiz/Salty, and add a fill-in center fielder and a bullpen arm. There are years where you need to shake things up and make a big move, but I don't think this is one of them. You have 6 good starters. Piles of good waiting arms in the minors. Waiting for a breakout year for guys like Middlebrooks, Xander, Bradley, Lavs or Brentz at the plate, or Vazquez behind it. Maybe even Cecchini.